Leyton Orient Vs Sutton

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Leyton Orient and Sutton for League Two (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.17 3.21 3.41 2.19 1.67
Estim 2.38 3.69 3.25 2.07 1.93
Value % -4.07 -4.05 1.44 2.65 -8.07



Basic Data and latest results


Leyton Orient basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 5 0 44 4 3 2 4
Last 3 1 2 0 56 2 1 2 1
At Home 4 3 1 62 5 2 3 5




Leyton Orient latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
13 Nov Rochdale A 2 2 D O Gg
30 Oct Hartlepool H 5 0 W O Ng
23 Oct Stevenage A 0 0 D U Ng
19 Oct Forest Green H 1 1 D U Gg
16 Oct Walsall H 0 0 D U Ng
09 Oct Barrow A 1 1 D U Gg
02 Oct Port Vale A 2 3 L O Gg
25 Sep Mansfield H 0 0 D U Ng



Sutton basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 0 3 50 5 4 3 3
Last 3 2 0 1 67 2 2 1 2
At Away 4 2 3 52 7 5 3 6




Sutton latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
13 Nov Tranmere A 1 0 W U Ng
30 Oct Walsall H 0 1 L U Ng
26 Oct Colchester A 3 1 W O Gg
23 Oct Rochdale A 2 3 L O Gg
19 Oct Swindon H 1 2 L O Gg
16 Oct Crawley Town A 1 0 W U Ng
09 Oct Port Vale H 4 3 W O Gg
02 Oct Northampton A 2 0 W U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Leyton Orient is 0.185 and for the Sutton is 0.096.
  • The home dynamic for the Leyton Orient is 0.179 and the dynamic as a guest for the Sutton is -0.034.
  • The offensive ability for the Leyton Orient is 0.07 and for the Sutton is 0.559.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Leyton Orient is 0.176 and for the Sutton is -0.217.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Leyton Orient 24% 35% 24% 17%
Sutton 31% 36% 21% 12%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Leyton Orient to score 1.32 goals and Sutton to score 0.96 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.28 goals in the game and the home team Leyton Orient to win by 0.36 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Leyton Orient to score 1.35 goals and Sutton to score 1.14 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.21 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 13.7 0-1 3.76
1 5.18 2-3 2.02
2 3.98 4+ 4.15
3 4.12 Ov 1.5 1.36
4 6.45 Un 1.5 3.76
5 15.15 Ov 2.5 2.07
6+ 50 Un 2.5 1.93
Gg 1.89 Ov 3.5 4.15
NoG 2.12 Un 3.5 1.32


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.46 3.64 3.13
2-3 goals 2.3 3.92 3.23
4+ goals 2.43 3.35 3.44
Ov 1.5 2.34 3.71 3.3
Un 1.5 2.46 3.64 3.13
Ov 2.5 2.03 6.72 2.8
Un 2.5 2.83 2.6 3.83
Ov 3.5 2.43 3.35 3.44
Un 3.5 2.35 3.82 3.19
Goal-Goal 2.84 2.67 3.65
No Goal 2 6.47 2.9
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.17 5.6 2.78
NG+Un 2.5 2.14 6.47 2.9



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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