Liverpool Vs Arsenal

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Liverpool and Arsenal for Premier League (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.49 4.77 6.48 1.5 2.62
Estim 1.68 4.05 6.33 2.22 1.82
Value % -7.59 3.73 0.37 -21.62 16.78



Basic Data and latest results


Liverpool basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 3 1 50 6 4 6 0
Last 3 1 1 1 44 3 2 3 0
At Home 2 3 0 60 5 3 3 2




Liverpool latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
07 Nov West Ham A 2 3 L O Gg
30 Oct Brighton H 2 2 D O Gg
24 Oct Man United A 5 0 W O Ng
16 Oct Watford A 5 0 W O Ng
03 Oct Man City H 2 2 D O Gg
25 Sep Brentford A 3 3 D O Gg
18 Sep Crystal Palace H 3 0 W O Ng
12 Sep Leeds A 3 0 W O Ng



Arsenal basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 2 0 78 5 3 3 3
Last 3 3 0 0 100 3 1 1 2
At Away 2 1 2 47 2 2 1 4




Arsenal latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
07 Nov Watford H 1 0 W U Ng
30 Oct Leicester A 2 0 W U Ng
22 Oct Aston Villa H 3 1 W O Gg
18 Oct Crystal Palace H 2 2 D O Gg
02 Oct Brighton A 0 0 D U Ng
26 Sep Tottenham H 3 1 W O Gg
18 Sep Burnley A 1 0 W U Ng
11 Sep Norwich H 1 0 W U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Liverpool is 0.133 and for the Arsenal is 0.824.
  • The home dynamic for the Liverpool is 0.307 and the dynamic as a guest for the Arsenal is 0.132.
  • The offensive ability for the Liverpool is 1 and for the Arsenal is 0.648.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Liverpool is -0.227 and for the Arsenal is 0.243.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Liverpool 12% 42% 19% 26%
Arsenal 46% 36% 14% 5%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Liverpool to score 2.37 goals and Arsenal to score 0.79 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.17 goals in the game and the home team Liverpool to win by 1.58 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Liverpool to score 1.59 goals and Arsenal to score 0.78 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and the home team Liverpool to win by 0.81 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 17.86 0-1 3.41
1 4.22 2-3 1.98
2 3.92 4+ 4.98
3 3.98 Ov 1.5 1.41
4 7.09 Un 1.5 3.41
5 21.74 Ov 2.5 2.21
6+ 71.43 Un 2.5 1.82
Gg 2.09 Ov 3.5 4.98
NoG 1.92 Un 3.5 1.25


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 1.52 5.23 6.66
2-3 goals 1.84 3.37 6.25
4+ goals 1.57 4.9 6.28
Ov 1.5 1.75 3.7 6.26
Un 1.5 1.52 5.23 6.66
Ov 2.5 1.43 11.02 4.71
Un 2.5 1.95 2.66 8.98
Ov 3.5 1.57 4.9 6.28
Un 3.5 1.71 3.88 6.39
Goal-Goal 2.43 2.5 5.31
No Goal 1.31 9.32 7.79
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.66 8 3.64
NG+Un 2.5 1.42 9.32 6.52



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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