Mainz Vs FC Koln

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Mainz and FC Koln for Bundesliga (Germany).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.16 3.59 3.29 1.7 2.21
Estim 1.61 4.52 6.37 1.69 2.45
Value % 15.82 -5.73 -14.7 0.35 -4.43



Basic Data and latest results


Mainz basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 1 3 39 5 6 4 2
Last 3 2 1 0 78 3 3 2 1
At Home 3 2 1 61 5 3 3 3




Mainz latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
05 Nov M’gladbach H 1 1 D U Gg
30 Oct Bielefeld A 2 1 W O Gg
22 Oct Augsburg H 4 1 W O Gg
16 Oct Dortmund A 1 3 L O Gg
03 Oct Union Berlin H 1 2 L O Gg
25 Sep Leverkusen A 0 1 L U Ng
18 Sep Freiburg H 0 0 D U Ng
11 Sep Hoffenheim A 2 0 W U Ng



FC Koln basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 3 2 33 4 6 4 2
Last 3 0 2 1 22 2 3 2 1
At Away 0 2 3 13 3 5 2 3




FC Koln latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
07 Nov Union Berlin H 2 2 D O Gg
30 Oct Dortmund A 0 2 L U Ng
24 Oct Leverkusen H 2 2 D O Gg
15 Oct Hoffenheim A 0 5 L O Ng
01 Oct Greuther Furth H 3 1 W O Gg
25 Sep Ein Frankfurt A 1 1 D U Gg
18 Sep RB Leipzig H 1 1 D U Gg
11 Sep Freiburg A 1 1 D U Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Mainz is -0.089 and for the FC Koln is -0.136.
  • The home dynamic for the Mainz is 0.243 and the dynamic as a guest for the FC Koln is -0.547.
  • The offensive ability for the Mainz is 0.604 and for the FC Koln is 0.181.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Mainz is -1 and for the FC Koln is -1.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Mainz 12% 26% 29% 33%
FC Koln 34% 43% 16% 7%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Mainz to score 1.62 goals and FC Koln to score 1.19 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.82 goals in the game and the home team Mainz to win by 0.43 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Mainz to score 1.84 goals and FC Koln to score 0.96 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.8 goals in the game and the home team Mainz to win by 0.88 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 24.39 0-1 5.59
1 7.25 2-3 1.93
2 4.37 4+ 3.29
3 3.47 Ov 1.5 1.22
4 4.78 Un 1.5 5.59
5 13.7 Ov 2.5 1.69
6+ 45.45 Un 2.5 2.45
Gg 1.72 Ov 3.5 3.29
NoG 2.4 Un 3.5 1.44


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.08 4.37 3.44
2-3 goals 1.53 4.66 7.6
4+ goals 1.54 4.34 8.44
Ov 1.5 1.53 4.54 7.89
Un 1.5 2.08 4.37 3.44
Ov 2.5 1.35 8.46 6.96
Un 2.5 2.21 2.68 5.75
Ov 3.5 1.54 4.34 8.44
Un 3.5 1.64 4.58 5.8
Goal-Goal 1.79 3.22 7.57
No Goal 1.4 10.17 5.28
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.45 6.74 6.13
NG+Un 2.5 1.61 10.17 4.18



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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