Malaga Vs Las Palmas

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Malaga and Las Palmas for Segunda Division (Spain).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.71 2.96 2.87 2.48 1.56
Estim 2.04 3.73 4.12 2.23 1.81
Value % 12.12 -6.97 -10.57 4.52 -8.85



Basic Data and latest results


Malaga basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 1 2 56 5 3 3 3
Last 3 2 0 1 67 3 2 2 1
At Home 6 2 0 83 7 2 1 7




Malaga latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
15 Nov Tenerife H 1 0 W U Ng
07 Nov Cartagena A 1 3 L O Gg
04 Nov Sociedad B H 2 1 W O Gg
31 Oct Oviedo A 1 2 L O Gg
23 Oct Lugo H 1 0 W U Ng
19 Oct Huesca A 0 0 D U Ng
16 Oct Zaragoza H 1 1 D U Gg
08 Oct Valladolid A 1 1 D U Gg



Las Palmas basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 1 2 56 5 4 3 3
Last 3 1 1 1 44 3 3 2 1
At Away 1 4 2 33 4 4 1 6




Las Palmas latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
13 Nov Zaragoza H 2 3 L O Gg
06 Nov Oviedo A 1 1 D U Gg
03 Nov Fuenlabrada H 2 1 W O Gg
29 Oct Sociedad B A 1 0 W U Ng
24 Oct Alcorcon H 3 0 W O Ng
20 Oct Lugo A 0 2 L U Ng
16 Oct Tenerife H 2 1 W O Gg
09 Oct Almeria A 1 1 D U Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Malaga is 0.17 and for the Las Palmas is 0.24.
  • The home dynamic for the Malaga is 0.474 and the dynamic as a guest for the Las Palmas is -0.064.
  • The offensive ability for the Malaga is 0.604 and for the Las Palmas is 0.674.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Malaga is 0.116 and for the Las Palmas is -0.278.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Malaga 21% 34% 26% 18%
Las Palmas 37% 37% 18% 8%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Malaga to score 1.08 goals and Las Palmas to score 1.03 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.11 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.05 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Malaga to score 1.41 goals and Las Palmas to score 0.96 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and the home team Malaga to win by 0.45 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 12.5 0-1 3.48
1 4.83 2-3 1.97
2 3.79 4+ 4.83
3 4.12 Ov 1.5 1.4
4 7.09 Un 1.5 3.48
5 18.87 Ov 2.5 2.22
6+ 76.92 Un 2.5 1.81
Gg 2.03 Ov 3.5 4.83
NoG 1.97 Un 3.5 1.26


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.22 3.59 3.68
2-3 goals 1.94 4.02 4.23
4+ goals 2.09 3.34 4.5
Ov 1.5 1.98 3.8 4.3
Un 1.5 2.22 3.59 3.68
Ov 2.5 1.72 7.26 3.57
Un 2.5 2.43 2.67 4.67
Ov 3.5 2.09 3.34 4.5
Un 3.5 2.04 3.85 4.01
Goal-Goal 2.53 2.62 4.48
No Goal 1.73 6.35 3.79
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.88 5.92 3.34
NG+Un 2.5 1.87 6.35 3.6



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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