Mansfield Vs Scunthorpe

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Mansfield and Scunthorpe for League Two (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.82 3.56 4.33 2.09 1.75
Estim 2.19 3.72 3.66 2.1 1.91
Value % -9.28 -1.21 4.23 -0.23 -4.79



Basic Data and latest results


Mansfield basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 2 2 44 4 4 2 4
Last 3 2 0 1 67 3 2 2 1
At Home 3 3 3 44 7 7 4 5




Mansfield latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
13 Nov Stevenage A 2 1 W O Gg
30 Oct Tranmere H 2 0 W U Ng
23 Oct Exeter A 1 2 L O Gg
19 Oct Port Vale H 1 1 D U Gg
16 Oct Northampton A 0 2 L U Ng
09 Oct Oldham H 0 0 D U Ng
02 Oct Barrow H 0 1 L U Ng
25 Sep Leyton Orient A 0 0 D U Ng



Scunthorpe basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 2 3 28 5 6 3 3
Last 3 1 1 1 44 3 3 2 1
At Away 0 4 4 17 5 7 4 4




Scunthorpe latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
13 Nov Salford H 1 1 D U Gg
30 Oct Colchester A 1 2 L O Gg
23 Oct Crawley Town H 2 1 W O Gg
19 Oct Barrow A 1 1 D U Gg
16 Oct Forest Green H 0 2 L U Ng
09 Oct Harrogate A 1 6 L O Gg
02 Oct Newport County A 0 3 L O Ng
25 Sep Port Vale H 0 1 L U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Mansfield is 0.059 and for the Scunthorpe is -0.24.
  • The home dynamic for the Mansfield is -0.251 and the dynamic as a guest for the Scunthorpe is -0.358.
  • The offensive ability for the Mansfield is 0.176 and for the Scunthorpe is 0.648.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Mansfield is -0.253 and for the Scunthorpe is -1.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Mansfield 22% 35% 25% 19%
Scunthorpe 33% 37% 20% 10%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Mansfield to score 1.54 goals and Scunthorpe to score 0.83 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and the home team Mansfield to win by 0.71 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Mansfield to score 1.4 goals and Scunthorpe to score 1.06 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and the home team Mansfield to win by 0.34 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 13.89 0-1 3.75
1 5.13 2-3 2
2 3.92 4+ 4.29
3 4.08 Ov 1.5 1.36
4 6.54 Un 1.5 3.75
5 16.13 Ov 2.5 2.09
6+ 55.56 Un 2.5 1.92
Gg 1.91 Ov 3.5 4.29
NoG 2.1 Un 3.5 1.3


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.34 3.71 3.3
2-3 goals 2.12 3.88 3.7
4+ goals 2.16 3.43 4.09
Ov 1.5 2.13 3.72 3.82
Un 1.5 2.34 3.71 3.3
Ov 2.5 1.82 7.03 3.23
Un 2.5 2.66 2.6 4.18
Ov 3.5 2.16 3.43 4.09
Un 3.5 2.19 3.82 3.55
Goal-Goal 2.62 2.66 4.13
No Goal 1.84 6.61 3.26
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.97 5.81 3.11
NG+Un 2.5 2.01 6.61 3.14



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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