Middlesbrough Vs Millwall

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Middlesbrough and Millwall for Championship (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.09 3.29 3.74 2.33 1.62
Estim 2.14 3.73 3.8 2.13 1.89
Value % -1.12 -3.59 -0.42 4.03 -8.82



Basic Data and latest results


Middlesbrough basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 1 2 56 5 3 1 5
Last 3 0 1 2 11 2 3 1 2
At Home 4 1 3 54 7 5 3 5




Middlesbrough latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
06 Nov West Brom A 1 1 D U Gg
02 Nov Luton A 1 3 L O Gg
30 Oct Birmingham H 0 2 L U Ng
23 Oct Cardiff A 2 0 W U Ng
20 Oct Barnsley H 2 0 W U Ng
16 Oct Peterboro H 2 0 W U Ng
02 Oct Hull A 0 2 L U Ng
28 Sep Sheffield United H 2 0 W U Ng



Millwall basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 1 2 56 4 5 2 4
Last 3 1 1 1 44 2 2 0 3
At Away 2 4 2 42 6 6 2 6




Millwall latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
06 Nov Derby H 1 1 D U Gg
02 Nov Reading H 1 0 W U Ng
30 Oct Huddersfield A 0 1 L U Ng
23 Oct Stoke H 2 1 W O Gg
19 Oct Sheffield United A 2 1 W O Gg
16 Oct Luton H 0 2 L U Ng
02 Oct Barnsley A 1 0 W U Ng
29 Sep Bristol City H 1 0 W U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Middlesbrough is 0.089 and for the Millwall is 0.28.
  • The home dynamic for the Middlesbrough is 0.084 and the dynamic as a guest for the Millwall is 0.253.
  • The offensive ability for the Middlesbrough is 0.497 and for the Millwall is 0.269.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Middlesbrough is 0.03 and for the Millwall is -0.565.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Middlesbrough 23% 32% 24% 20%
Millwall 33% 41% 15% 11%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Middlesbrough to score 1.32 goals and Millwall to score 0.88 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.2 goals in the game and the home team Middlesbrough to win by 0.44 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Middlesbrough to score 1.41 goals and Millwall to score 1.03 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and the home team Middlesbrough to win by 0.38 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 12.99 0-1 3.56
1 4.9 2-3 2.05
2 4.03 4+ 4.33
3 4.17 Ov 1.5 1.39
4 6.49 Un 1.5 3.56
5 17.86 Ov 2.5 2.12
6+ 47.62 Un 2.5 1.89
Gg 1.95 Ov 3.5 4.33
NoG 2.05 Un 3.5 1.3


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.6 3.65 2.93
2-3 goals 1.97 3.67 4.56
4+ goals 2.04 4.05 3.79
Ov 1.5 1.99 3.78 4.28
Un 1.5 2.6 3.65 2.93
Ov 2.5 1.68 8.26 3.51
Un 2.5 2.8 2.52 4.07
Ov 3.5 2.04 4.05 3.79
Un 3.5 2.16 3.66 3.79
Goal-Goal 2.4 2.69 4.7
No Goal 1.91 6.34 3.15
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.78 6.65 3.48
NG+Un 2.5 2.1 6.34 3.05



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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