Monaco Vs Lille

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Monaco and Lille for Ligue One (France).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.18 3.31 3.49 1.98 1.87
Estim 2.07 3.79 3.95 2.25 1.8
Value % 2.44 -3.83 -3.34 -6.06 2.08



Basic Data and latest results


Monaco basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 1 2 56 3 4 3 3
Last 3 1 1 1 44 1 2 1 2
At Home 3 1 2 56 4 5 3 3




Monaco latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
07 Nov Reims A 0 0 D U Ng
31 Oct Brest A 0 2 L U Ng
24 Oct Montpellier H 3 1 W O Gg
16 Oct Lyon A 0 2 L U Ng
03 Oct Bordeaux H 3 0 W O Ng
26 Sep Clermont A 3 1 W O Gg
22 Sep St Etienne H 3 1 W O Gg
19 Sep Nice A 2 2 D O Gg



Lille basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 2 2 44 5 5 2 4
Last 3 0 2 1 22 3 3 1 2
At Away 1 2 4 24 5 7 4 3




Lille latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
06 Nov Angers H 1 1 D U Gg
29 Oct Paris SG A 1 2 L O Gg
23 Oct Brest H 1 1 D U Gg
16 Oct Clermont A 0 1 L U Ng
03 Oct Marseille H 2 0 W U Ng
25 Sep Strasbourg A 2 1 W O Gg
22 Sep Reims H 2 1 W O Gg
18 Sep Lens A 0 1 L U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Monaco is 0.111 and for the Lille is 0.016.
  • The home dynamic for the Monaco is 0.187 and the dynamic as a guest for the Lille is -0.426.
  • The offensive ability for the Monaco is -0.572 and for the Lille is 0.621.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Monaco is -0.202 and for the Lille is -0.652.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Monaco 24% 28% 32% 15%
Lille 38% 36% 17% 9%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Monaco to score 1.45 goals and Lille to score 1.04 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and the home team Monaco to win by 0.41 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Monaco to score 1.38 goals and Lille to score 0.97 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.35 goals in the game and the home team Monaco to win by 0.41 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 10.87 0-1 3.47
1 5.1 2-3 1.96
2 3.75 4+ 5
3 4.12 Ov 1.5 1.41
4 7.46 Un 1.5 3.47
5 18.87 Ov 2.5 2.26
6+ 76.92 Un 2.5 1.8
Gg 2.13 Ov 3.5 5
NoG 1.89 Un 3.5 1.25


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.67 3.13 3.27
2-3 goals 1.73 4.95 4.55
4+ goals 2.53 2.94 3.77
Ov 1.5 1.9 4.15 4.3
Un 1.5 2.67 3.13 3.27
Ov 2.5 1.76 6.51 3.6
Un 2.5 2.41 2.85 4.27
Ov 3.5 2.53 2.94 3.77
Un 3.5 1.98 4.09 3.99
Goal-Goal 2.39 2.74 4.6
No Goal 1.85 5.75 3.5
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.87 5.38 3.59
NG+Un 2.5 1.97 5.75 3.48



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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