Newcastle Vs Brentford

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Newcastle and Brentford for Premier League (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.66 3.41 2.72 1.98 1.88
Estim 3.44 3.98 2.18 1.88 2.13
Value % -8.52 -4.2 9.11 2.69 -6.24



Basic Data and latest results


Newcastle basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 0 3 3 17 5 6 3 3
Last 3 0 2 1 22 2 3 1 2
At Home 0 2 3 13 4 5 4 1




Newcastle latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
06 Nov Brighton A 1 1 D U Gg
30 Oct Chelsea H 0 3 L O Ng
23 Oct Crystal Palace A 1 1 D U Gg
17 Oct Tottenham H 2 3 L O Gg
02 Oct Wolves A 1 2 L O Gg
25 Sep Watford A 1 1 D U Gg
17 Sep Leeds H 1 1 D U Gg
11 Sep Man United A 1 4 L O Gg



Brentford basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 1 4 22 5 6 5 1
Last 3 0 0 3 0 3 3 3 0
At Away 2 2 1 53 4 3 2 3




Brentford latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
06 Nov Norwich H 1 2 L O Gg
30 Oct Burnley A 1 3 L O Gg
24 Oct Leicester H 1 2 L O Gg
16 Oct Chelsea H 0 1 L U Ng
03 Oct West Ham A 2 1 W O Gg
25 Sep Liverpool H 3 3 D O Gg
18 Sep Wolves A 2 0 W U Ng
11 Sep Brighton H 0 1 L U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Newcastle is -0.496 and for the Brentford is -0.536.
  • The home dynamic for the Newcastle is -0.713 and the dynamic as a guest for the Brentford is 0.238.
  • The offensive ability for the Newcastle is 0.465 and for the Brentford is 0.621.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Newcastle is -1 and for the Brentford is -1.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Newcastle 36% 30% 17% 18%
Brentford 22% 31% 25% 22%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Newcastle to score 1.25 goals and Brentford to score 1.23 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.02 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Newcastle to score 1.17 goals and Brentford to score 1.48 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.65 goals in the game and the guest team Brentford to win by 0.31 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 13.16 0-1 3.98
1 5.71 2-3 2.16
2 4.57 4+ 3.5
3 4.08 Ov 1.5 1.33
4 6.06 Un 1.5 3.98
5 12.2 Ov 2.5 1.88
6+ 25.64 Un 2.5 2.13
Gg 1.97 Ov 3.5 3.5
NoG 2.02 Un 3.5 1.4


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 3.92 3.3 2.26
2-3 goals 3.6 4.99 1.92
4+ goals 2.89 3.49 2.72
Ov 1.5 3.29 4.29 2.16
Un 1.5 3.92 3.3 2.26
Ov 2.5 2.78 6.48 2.06
Un 2.5 4.65 2.78 2.35
Ov 3.5 2.89 3.49 2.72
Un 3.5 3.7 4.23 2.03
Goal-Goal 3.31 2.9 2.83
No Goal 3.55 6.5 1.77
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.71 5.05 2.31
NG+Un 2.5 3.73 6.5 1.88



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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