Norwich Vs Southampton

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Norwich and Southampton for Premier League (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 3.65 3.47 2.11 1.98 1.89
Estim 3.77 4.13 2.03 1.83 2.21
Value % -0.87 -4.61 1.87 4.14 -7.66



Basic Data and latest results


Norwich basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 2 3 28 2 4 3 3
Last 3 1 0 2 33 2 3 3 0
At Home 0 1 4 7 3 4 4 1




Norwich latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
06 Nov Brentford A 2 1 W O Gg
31 Oct Leeds H 1 2 L O Gg
23 Oct Chelsea A 0 7 L O Ng
16 Oct Brighton H 0 0 D U Ng
02 Oct Burnley A 0 0 D U Ng
25 Sep Everton A 0 2 L U Ng
18 Sep Watford H 1 3 L O Gg
11 Sep Arsenal A 0 1 L U Ng



Southampton basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 1 2 56 5 3 2 4
Last 3 2 1 0 78 3 1 1 2
At Away 1 2 2 33 4 3 3 2




Southampton latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
05 Nov Aston Villa H 1 0 W U Ng
30 Oct Watford A 1 0 W U Ng
23 Oct Burnley H 2 2 D O Gg
16 Oct Leeds H 1 0 W U Ng
02 Oct Chelsea A 1 3 L O Gg
26 Sep Wolves H 0 1 L U Ng
18 Sep Man City A 0 0 D U Ng
11 Sep West Ham H 0 0 D U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Norwich is -0.296 and for the Southampton is 0.36.
  • The home dynamic for the Norwich is -0.888 and the dynamic as a guest for the Southampton is -0.094.
  • The offensive ability for the Norwich is -0.786 and for the Southampton is 0.674.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Norwich is -0.288 and for the Southampton is 0.278.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Norwich 38% 18% 40% 4%
Southampton 19% 30% 26% 24%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Norwich to score 1.01 goals and Southampton to score 1.49 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and the guest team Southampton to win by 0.48 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Norwich to score 1.11 goals and Southampton to score 1.55 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.66 goals in the game and the guest team Southampton to win by 0.44 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 13.7 0-1 4.48
1 6.67 2-3 2
2 4.35 4+ 3.58
3 3.72 Ov 1.5 1.29
4 6.21 Un 1.5 4.48
5 9.26 Ov 2.5 1.82
6+ 100 Un 2.5 2.21
Gg 1.99 Ov 3.5 3.58
NoG 2.01 Un 3.5 1.39


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 6.37 3.05 1.94
2-3 goals 2.41 9.07 2.11
4+ goals 11.63 2.45 1.98
Ov 1.5 3.37 4.6 2.06
Un 1.5 6.37 3.05 1.94
Ov 2.5 3.56 4.81 1.96
Un 2.5 4.04 3.54 2.13
Ov 3.5 11.63 2.45 1.98
Un 3.5 2.98 5.64 2.05
Goal-Goal 3.45 2.98 2.68
No Goal 4.15 6.82 1.63
G-G+Ov 2.5 3.07 3.93 2.38
NG+Un 2.5 3.55 6.82 1.87



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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