Oviedo Vs Amorebieta

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Oviedo and Amorebieta for Segunda Division (Spain).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.82 3.23 4.65 2.55 1.52
Estim 1.96 3.82 4.39 2.18 1.85
Value % -3.92 -4.78 1.27 6.66 -11.74



Basic Data and latest results


Oviedo basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 2 2 44 4 5 3 3
Last 3 0 2 1 22 1 2 0 3
At Home 2 5 1 46 6 5 3 5




Oviedo latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
14 Nov Leganes A 0 0 D U Ng
06 Nov Las Palmas H 1 1 D U Gg
03 Nov Eibar A 0 1 L U Ng
31 Oct Malaga H 2 1 W O Gg
24 Oct Ponferradina A 2 1 W O Gg
21 Oct Burgos H 1 3 L O Gg
17 Oct Sociedad B A 1 1 D U Gg
09 Oct Sp Gijon H 1 1 D U Gg



Amorebieta basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 3 2 33 5 5 4 2
Last 3 1 1 1 44 3 3 3 0
At Away 0 4 4 17 4 7 2 6




Amorebieta latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
14 Nov Lugo H 1 3 L O Gg
07 Nov Alcorcon A 2 2 D O Gg
03 Nov Valladolid H 4 1 W O Gg
30 Oct Huesca A 1 1 D U Gg
24 Oct Sociedad B H 1 2 L O Gg
20 Oct Fuenlabrada A 0 0 D U Ng
16 Oct Cartagena H 2 3 L O Gg
10 Oct Tenerife A 1 2 L O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Oviedo is 0 and for the Amorebieta is -0.104.
  • The home dynamic for the Oviedo is -0.108 and the dynamic as a guest for the Amorebieta is -0.434.
  • The offensive ability for the Oviedo is -0.07 and for the Amorebieta is 0.674.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Oviedo is -0.545 and for the Amorebieta is -0.678.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Oviedo 20% 34% 27% 19%
Amorebieta 38% 36% 18% 7%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Oviedo to score 1.35 goals and Amorebieta to score 0.71 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.06 goals in the game and the home team Oviedo to win by 0.64 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Oviedo to score 1.46 goals and Amorebieta to score 0.94 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and the home team Oviedo to win by 0.52 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 13.33 0-1 3.6
1 4.93 2-3 1.96
2 3.8 4+ 4.72
3 4.07 Ov 1.5 1.39
4 6.94 Un 1.5 3.6
5 18.52 Ov 2.5 2.18
6+ 71.43 Un 2.5 1.85
Gg 2.02 Ov 3.5 4.72
NoG 1.98 Un 3.5 1.27


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.12 3.71 3.86
2-3 goals 1.87 4.07 4.54
4+ goals 2 3.42 4.82
Ov 1.5 1.91 3.86 4.62
Un 1.5 2.12 3.71 3.86
Ov 2.5 1.66 7.39 3.82
Un 2.5 2.32 2.7 5.01
Ov 3.5 2 3.42 4.82
Un 3.5 1.95 3.93 4.28
Goal-Goal 2.45 2.65 4.67
No Goal 1.64 6.72 4.13
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.83 5.97 3.49
NG+Un 2.5 1.79 6.72 3.85



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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