Panetolikos Vs Apollon

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Panetolikos and Apollon for Super League (Greece).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.35 2.97 3.24 2.46 1.54
Estim 2.71 3.36 3 2.37 1.73
Value % -5.65 -3.91 2.47 1.54 -7.13



Basic Data and latest results


Panetolikos basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 0 1 5 6 5 6 6 0
Last 3 0 0 3 0 2 3 3 0
At Home 0 1 4 7 4 4 4 1




Panetolikos latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
06 Nov Giannina A 0 3 L O Ng
30 Oct Olympiakos H 1 2 L O Gg
24 Oct Aris A 1 5 L O Gg
17 Oct OFI Crete H 1 2 L O Gg
03 Oct AEK H 1 3 L O Gg
26 Sep Lamia A 2 2 D O Gg
22 Sep PAOK H 1 2 L O Gg
19 Sep Atromitos A 2 1 W O Gg



Apollon basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 3 2 33 3 3 2 4
Last 3 1 1 1 44 3 2 2 1
At Away 0 1 3 8 2 3 3 1




Apollon latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
06 Nov AEK H 2 2 D O Gg
30 Oct PAOK A 1 4 L O Gg
23 Oct Giannina H 1 0 W U Ng
16 Oct Asteras Tripolis H 0 1 L U Ng
02 Oct Aris A 0 0 D U Ng
27 Sep Ionikos H 0 0 D U Ng
22 Sep Olympiakos A 1 4 L O Gg
19 Sep Volos NFC H 1 3 L O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Panetolikos is -0.867 and for the Apollon is -0.104.
  • The home dynamic for the Panetolikos is -0.936 and the dynamic as a guest for the Apollon is -0.638.
  • The offensive ability for the Panetolikos is 0.433 and for the Apollon is -0.057.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Panetolikos is -1 and for the Apollon is 0.07.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Panetolikos 22% 46% 23% 8%
Apollon 31% 32% 33% 4%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Panetolikos to score 1.17 goals and Apollon to score 0.94 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.1 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.23 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Panetolikos to score 1.18 goals and Apollon to score 1.1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.28 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.08 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 14.29 0-1 3.52
1 4.67 2-3 1.8
2 3.4 4+ 6.21
3 3.82 Ov 1.5 1.39
4 8.2 Un 1.5 3.52
5 27.78 Ov 2.5 2.36
6+ 333.33 Un 2.5 1.73
Gg 1.87 Ov 3.5 6.21
NoG 2.15 Un 3.5 1.19


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2 4.06 3.94
2-3 goals 3.21 3.76 2.37
4+ goals 2.98 2.01 5.96
Ov 1.5 3.16 3.14 2.74
Un 1.5 2 4.06 3.94
Ov 2.5 2.73 5.29 2.25
Un 2.5 2.7 2.65 3.96
Ov 3.5 2.98 2.01 5.96
Un 3.5 2.67 3.85 2.74
Goal-Goal 4.16 2.35 2.99
No Goal 1.94 6.64 3
G-G+Ov 2.5 3.01 4.85 2.17
NG+Un 2.5 2.01 6.64 2.95



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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