Paris SG Vs Nantes

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Paris SG and Nantes for Ligue One (France).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.29 5.93 10.42 1.53 2.52
Estim 1.64 4.55 5.85 1.77 2.29
Value % -16.54 5.11 7.5 -8.86 3.99



Basic Data and latest results


Paris SG basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 1 1 72 4 4 3 3
Last 3 2 1 0 78 2 2 2 1
At Home 6 0 0 100 6 4 5 1




Paris SG latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
06 Nov Bordeaux A 3 2 W O Gg
29 Oct Lille H 2 1 W O Gg
24 Oct Marseille A 0 0 D U Ng
15 Oct Angers H 2 1 W O Gg
03 Oct Rennes A 0 2 L U Ng
25 Sep Montpellier H 2 0 W U Ng
22 Sep Metz A 2 1 W O Gg
19 Sep Lyon H 2 1 W O Gg



Nantes basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 2 2 44 5 5 3 3
Last 3 1 1 1 44 2 3 2 1
At Away 1 2 3 28 4 6 2 4




Nantes latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
07 Nov Strasbourg H 2 2 D O Gg
31 Oct Montpellier A 0 2 L U Ng
23 Oct Clermont H 2 1 W O Gg
17 Oct Bordeaux A 1 1 D U Gg
03 Oct Troyes H 2 0 W U Ng
26 Sep Reims A 1 3 L O Gg
22 Sep Brest H 3 1 W O Gg
19 Sep Angers A 4 1 W O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Paris SG is 0.533 and for the Nantes is 0.08.
  • The home dynamic for the Paris SG is 1 and the dynamic as a guest for the Nantes is -0.306.
  • The offensive ability for the Paris SG is 0.07 and for the Nantes is 0.559.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Paris SG is -0.288 and for the Nantes is -0.652.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Paris SG 18% 15% 41% 26%
Nantes 38% 36% 20% 5%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Paris SG to score 2.56 goals and Nantes to score 0.54 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.1 goals in the game and the home team Paris SG to win by 2.02 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Paris SG to score 1.75 goals and Nantes to score 0.93 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.68 goals in the game and the home team Paris SG to win by 0.82 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 14.93 0-1 5.32
1 8.26 2-3 1.87
2 4.05 4+ 3.62
3 3.47 Ov 1.5 1.23
4 5.35 Un 1.5 5.32
5 13.33 Ov 2.5 1.77
6+ 71.43 Un 2.5 2.3
Gg 1.96 Ov 3.5 3.62
NoG 2.05 Un 3.5 1.38


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 3.3 2.81 2.94
2-3 goals 1.32 9.91 7.04
4+ goals 1.88 2.79 9.2
Ov 1.5 1.47 5.3 7.65
Un 1.5 3.3 2.81 2.94
Ov 2.5 1.43 5.7 8.06
Un 2.5 2.03 3.6 4.35
Ov 3.5 1.88 2.79 9.2
Un 3.5 1.56 5.98 5.16
Goal-Goal 1.72 3.34 8.38
No Goal 1.56 7.28 4.48
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.54 4.62 7.49
NG+Un 2.5 1.78 7.28 3.81



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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