Perugia Vs Crotone

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Perugia and Crotone for Serie B (Italy).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.2 3.3 3.33 2.05 1.81
Estim 2.08 3.89 3.79 2.08 1.92
Value % 2.62 -4.6 -3.64 -0.7 -3.17



Basic Data and latest results


Perugia basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 2 2 44 3 3 2 4
Last 3 1 0 2 33 2 3 2 1
At Home 1 2 2 33 4 4 1 4




Perugia latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
06 Nov Como A 1 4 L O Gg
01 Nov Spal A 2 1 W O Gg
28 Oct Reggina H 0 2 L U Ng
23 Oct Lecce A 0 0 D U Ng
16 Oct Brescia H 1 0 W U Ng
03 Oct Benevento A 0 0 D U Ng
26 Sep Alessandria H 1 1 D U Gg
22 Sep Cremonese A 3 0 W O Ng



Crotone basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 2 3 28 4 6 3 3
Last 3 0 1 2 11 2 3 1 2
At Away 0 1 4 7 3 5 3 2




Crotone latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
07 Nov Monza H 1 1 D U Gg
01 Nov Frosinone A 1 2 L O Gg
28 Oct Benevento H 0 2 L U Ng
22 Oct Alessandria A 0 1 L U Ng
16 Oct Pisa H 2 1 W O Gg
02 Oct Ascoli H 2 2 D O Gg
25 Sep Cosenza A 0 1 L U Ng
21 Sep Lecce H 0 3 L O Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Perugia is -0.037 and for the Crotone is -0.32.
  • The home dynamic for the Perugia is -0.267 and the dynamic as a guest for the Crotone is -0.743.
  • The offensive ability for the Perugia is -0.358 and for the Crotone is 0.207.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Perugia is 0.03 and for the Crotone is -1.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Perugia 20% 34% 27% 18%
Crotone 38% 30% 20% 11%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Perugia to score 1.38 goals and Crotone to score 1.03 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and the home team Perugia to win by 0.35 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Perugia to score 1.44 goals and Crotone to score 1.04 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and the home team Perugia to win by 0.4 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 12.66 0-1 3.68
1 5.18 2-3 2.03
2 4.03 4+ 4.22
3 4.1 Ov 1.5 1.37
4 6.76 Un 1.5 3.68
5 14.71 Ov 2.5 2.08
6+ 47.62 Un 2.5 1.92
Gg 2.04 Ov 3.5 4.22
NoG 1.96 Un 3.5 1.31


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.08 3.44 4.39
2-3 goals 1.91 4.78 3.73
4+ goals 2.58 3.16 3.39
Ov 1.5 2.09 4.1 3.61
Un 1.5 2.08 3.44 4.39
Ov 2.5 1.96 6.41 2.99
Un 2.5 2.21 2.86 5.05
Ov 3.5 2.58 3.16 3.39
Un 3.5 1.97 4.2 3.94
Goal-Goal 2.82 2.75 3.55
No Goal 1.67 6.47 4.06
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.22 5.16 2.8
NG+Un 2.5 1.77 6.47 4.05



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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