Pordenone Vs Ascoli

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Pordenone and Ascoli for Serie B (Italy).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.68 3.28 2.58 2.07 1.77
Estim 2.6 3.65 2.92 2.04 1.96
Value % 1.15 -3.09 -4.51 0.71 -5.48



Basic Data and latest results


Pordenone basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 0 2 4 11 4 6 3 3
Last 3 0 1 2 11 1 3 1 2
At Home 0 2 4 11 4 6 4 2




Pordenone latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
06 Nov Brescia A 0 1 L U Ng
01 Nov Cremonese H 2 2 D O Gg
28 Oct Como A 0 1 L U Ng
24 Oct Pisa A 1 1 D U Gg
16 Oct Ternana H 1 3 L O Gg
03 Oct Vicenza H 2 4 L O Gg
25 Sep Monza A 1 3 L O Gg
21 Sep Reggina H 1 1 D U Gg



Ascoli basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 3 2 33 5 6 3 3
Last 3 1 1 1 44 2 3 1 2
At Away 3 2 1 61 6 5 4 2




Ascoli latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
06 Nov Vicenza H 2 1 W O Gg
01 Nov Pisa A 1 1 D U Gg
28 Oct Spal H 0 1 L U Ng
23 Oct Frosinone A 1 2 L O Gg
16 Oct Lecce H 1 1 D U Gg
02 Oct Crotone A 2 2 D O Gg
25 Sep Brescia H 2 3 L O Gg
21 Sep Alessandria A 3 1 W O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Pordenone is -0.652 and for the Ascoli is -0.064.
  • The home dynamic for the Pordenone is -0.769 and the dynamic as a guest for the Ascoli is 0.321.
  • The offensive ability for the Pordenone is -0.07 and for the Ascoli is 0.586.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Pordenone is -1 and for the Ascoli is -1.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Pordenone 24% 34% 29% 12%
Ascoli 26% 39% 20% 14%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Pordenone to score 1.18 goals and Ascoli to score 1.21 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.03 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Pordenone to score 1.29 goals and Ascoli to score 1.23 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.06 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 15.38 0-1 4
1 5.41 2-3 1.96
2 3.85 4+ 4.15
3 4.02 Ov 1.5 1.33
4 6.41 Un 1.5 4
5 14.93 Ov 2.5 2.04
6+ 55.56 Un 2.5 1.96
Gg 1.8 Ov 3.5 4.15
NoG 2.25 Un 3.5 1.32


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.75 3.85 2.66
2-3 goals 2.3 3.83 3.28
4+ goals 3.35 3.13 2.62
Ov 1.5 2.56 3.57 3.04
Un 1.5 2.75 3.85 2.66
Ov 2.5 2.27 6.36 2.49
Un 2.5 3.04 2.58 3.54
Ov 3.5 3.35 3.13 2.62
Un 3.5 2.43 3.83 3.05
Goal-Goal 3.02 2.65 3.43
No Goal 2.22 6.83 2.48
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.3 5.49 2.61
NG+Un 2.5 2.24 6.83 2.62



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *