Portsmouth Vs AFC Wimbledon

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Portsmouth and AFC Wimbledon for League One (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.82 3.63 4.27 2.05 1.79
Estim 2.04 3.79 4.08 2.16 1.86
Value % -5.93 -1.16 1.09 -2.48 -2.1



Basic Data and latest results


Portsmouth basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 2 2 44 5 4 3 3
Last 3 2 1 0 78 3 1 0 3
At Home 4 2 2 58 7 4 4 4




Portsmouth latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
13 Nov Wycombe A 1 0 W U Ng
02 Nov Cheltenham H 1 1 D U Gg
30 Oct Bolton H 1 0 W U Ng
23 Oct Accrington A 2 2 D O Gg
19 Oct Ipswich H 0 4 L O Ng
16 Oct Rotherham A 1 4 L O Gg
02 Oct Sunderland H 4 0 W O Ng
28 Sep Burton A 1 2 L O Gg



AFC Wimbledon basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 2 3 28 3 5 2 4
Last 3 1 0 2 33 1 2 0 3
At Away 3 1 4 42 5 7 5 3




AFC Wimbledon latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
30 Oct Cambridge A 0 1 L U Ng
23 Oct Wigan H 0 2 L U Ng
19 Oct Lincoln A 1 0 W U Ng
16 Oct Sheffield Weds H 2 2 D O Gg
02 Oct Burton H 1 1 D U Gg
28 Sep Rotherham A 0 3 L O Ng
25 Sep Shrewsbury A 1 2 L O Gg
18 Sep Plymouth H 0 1 L U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Portsmouth is 0.089 and for the AFC Wimbledon is -0.296.
  • The home dynamic for the Portsmouth is 0.012 and the dynamic as a guest for the AFC Wimbledon is 0.049.
  • The offensive ability for the Portsmouth is 0.572 and for the AFC Wimbledon is -0.233.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Portsmouth is -0.142 and for the AFC Wimbledon is -0.591.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Portsmouth 19% 36% 26% 18%
AFC Wimbledon 37% 35% 18% 9%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Portsmouth to score 1.56 goals and AFC Wimbledon to score 0.84 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and the home team Portsmouth to win by 0.72 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Portsmouth to score 1.43 goals and AFC Wimbledon to score 1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and the home team Portsmouth to win by 0.43 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 13.89 0-1 3.62
1 4.9 2-3 1.98
2 3.83 4+ 4.55
3 4.1 Ov 1.5 1.38
4 6.9 Un 1.5 3.62
5 17.24 Ov 2.5 2.16
6+ 58.82 Un 2.5 1.86
Gg 1.98 Ov 3.5 4.55
NoG 2.02 Un 3.5 1.28


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.03 3.83 4.06
2-3 goals 1.96 3.95 4.24
4+ goals 2.27 3.44 3.73
Ov 1.5 2.04 3.78 4.07
Un 1.5 2.03 3.83 4.06
Ov 2.5 1.81 7.25 3.24
Un 2.5 2.29 2.68 5.21
Ov 3.5 2.27 3.44 3.73
Un 3.5 1.98 3.91 4.18
Goal-Goal 2.68 2.64 4.05
No Goal 1.64 6.88 4.09
G-G+Ov 2.5 2 5.91 3.02
NG+Un 2.5 1.75 6.88 3.97



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *