Preston Vs Cardiff

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Preston and Cardiff for Championship (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.15 3.38 3.45 2.08 1.79
Estim 2.05 3.85 3.95 1.96 2.04
Value % 2.27 -3.61 -3.67 2.94 -6.85



Basic Data and latest results


Preston basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 1 2 56 3 4 3 3
Last 3 2 0 1 67 2 2 2 1
At Home 4 3 1 62 7 5 3 5




Preston latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
06 Nov Nott’m Forest A 0 3 L O Ng
03 Nov Bournemouth A 2 1 W O Gg
30 Oct Luton H 2 0 W U Ng
23 Oct Blackpool A 0 2 L U Ng
20 Oct Coventry H 2 1 W O Gg
16 Oct Derby H 0 0 D U Ng
02 Oct QPR A 2 3 L O Gg
28 Sep Stoke H 1 1 D U Gg



Cardiff basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 1 4 22 2 6 3 3
Last 3 1 1 1 44 2 3 2 1
At Away 2 2 4 33 5 7 5 3




Cardiff latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
06 Nov Huddersfield H 2 1 W O Gg
03 Nov QPR H 0 1 L U Ng
30 Oct Stoke A 3 3 D O Gg
23 Oct Middlesbrough H 0 2 L U Ng
20 Oct Fulham A 0 2 L U Ng
17 Oct Swansea A 0 3 L O Ng
02 Oct Reading H 0 1 L U Ng
28 Sep West Brom H 0 4 L O Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Preston is 0.148 and for the Cardiff is -0.384.
  • The home dynamic for the Preston is 0.06 and the dynamic as a guest for the Cardiff is -0.306.
  • The offensive ability for the Preston is -0.422 and for the Cardiff is -0.498.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Preston is -0.288 and for the Cardiff is -1.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Preston 20% 30% 32% 18%
Cardiff 32% 38% 21% 9%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Preston to score 1.4 goals and Cardiff to score 1 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and the home team Preston to win by 0.4 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Preston to score 1.49 goals and Cardiff to score 1.07 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and the home team Preston to win by 0.42 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 15.62 0-1 4.27
1 5.88 2-3 1.93
2 3.88 4+ 4.02
3 3.83 Ov 1.5 1.3
4 6.1 Un 1.5 4.27
5 14.71 Ov 2.5 1.96
6+ 58.82 Un 2.5 2.03
Gg 1.83 Ov 3.5 4.02
NoG 2.19 Un 3.5 1.33


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.46 3.66 3.12
2-3 goals 1.82 4.63 4.25
4+ goals 2.31 2.93 4.45
Ov 1.5 1.95 3.9 4.31
Un 1.5 2.46 3.66 3.12
Ov 2.5 1.76 6 3.75
Un 2.5 2.47 2.8 4.21
Ov 3.5 2.31 2.93 4.45
Un 3.5 1.98 4.28 3.82
Goal-Goal 2.37 2.77 4.62
No Goal 1.77 7.14 3.39
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.88 5.09 3.67
NG+Un 2.5 1.91 7.14 3.25



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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