PSV Eindhoven Vs Vitesse

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between PSV Eindhoven and Vitesse for Eredivisie (Holland).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.41 4.81 6.82 1.54 2.43
Estim 2.38 3.75 3.19 1.88 2.14
Value % -28.91 5.88 16.69 -11.74 5.58



Basic Data and latest results


PSV Eindhoven basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 0 2 67 5 6 6 0
Last 3 2 0 1 67 2 3 3 0
At Home 5 0 1 83 5 6 6 0




PSV Eindhoven latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
07 Nov For Sittard A 4 1 W O Gg
30 Oct Twente H 5 2 W O Gg
24 Oct Ajax A 0 5 L O Ng
16 Oct Zwolle H 3 1 W O Gg
03 Oct Sparta Rotterdam H 2 1 W O Gg
25 Sep Willem II A 1 2 L O Gg
22 Sep Go Ahead Eagles A 2 1 W O Gg
19 Sep Feyenoord H 0 4 L O Ng



Vitesse basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 1 1 72 6 5 4 2
Last 3 2 0 1 67 3 3 3 0
At Away 5 0 1 83 5 3 3 3




Vitesse latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
07 Nov Utrecht H 2 1 W O Gg
30 Oct Heerenveen A 2 1 W O Gg
24 Oct Go Ahead Eagles H 1 2 L O Gg
17 Oct Nijmegen A 1 0 W U Ng
03 Oct Feyenoord H 2 1 W O Gg
25 Sep For Sittard H 1 1 D U Gg
22 Sep Groningen A 1 0 W U Ng
19 Sep Twente H 1 4 L O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the PSV Eindhoven is 0.385 and for the Vitesse is 0.64.
  • The home dynamic for the PSV Eindhoven is 0.657 and the dynamic as a guest for the Vitesse is 0.774.
  • The offensive ability for the PSV Eindhoven is 0.497 and for the Vitesse is 1.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the PSV Eindhoven is -1 and for the Vitesse is -0.626.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
PSV Eindhoven 23% 31% 24% 21%
Vitesse 23% 44% 20% 13%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) PSV Eindhoven to score 2.33 goals and Vitesse to score 0.72 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.05 goals in the game and the home team PSV Eindhoven to win by 1.61 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) PSV Eindhoven to score 1.44 goals and Vitesse to score 1.23 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.67 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.21 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 18.52 0-1 4.39
1 5.75 2-3 2.05
2 4.18 4+ 3.52
3 4.03 Ov 1.5 1.3
4 5.49 Un 1.5 4.39
5 13.51 Ov 2.5 1.88
6+ 35.71 Un 2.5 2.14
Gg 1.7 Ov 3.5 3.52
NoG 2.44 Un 3.5 1.4


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 3.17 4.22 2.24
2-3 goals 2.29 3.58 3.53
4+ goals 2.12 3.69 3.89
Ov 1.5 2.22 3.62 3.65
Un 1.5 3.17 4.22 2.24
Ov 2.5 1.83 6.91 3.22
Un 2.5 3.62 2.46 3.16
Ov 3.5 2.12 3.69 3.89
Un 3.5 2.51 3.76 2.98
Goal-Goal 2.44 2.77 4.36
No Goal 2.3 7.59 2.3
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.88 5.88 3.36
NG+Un 2.5 2.57 7.59 2.24



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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