Reading Vs Nott’m Forest

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Reading and Nott’m Forest for Championship (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 3.12 3.31 2.38 2.14 1.76
Estim 2.76 3.66 2.74 2.07 1.93
Value % 4.18 -2.89 -5.52 1.58 -5



Basic Data and latest results


Reading basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 0 4 33 3 5 2 4
Last 3 1 0 2 33 1 3 1 2
At Home 4 1 3 54 7 6 5 3




Reading latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
06 Nov Birmingham A 2 1 W O Gg
02 Nov Millwall A 0 1 L U Ng
30 Oct Bournemouth H 0 2 L U Ng
23 Oct Blackburn A 0 2 L U Ng
20 Oct Blackpool H 2 3 L O Gg
16 Oct Barnsley H 1 0 W U Ng
02 Oct Cardiff A 1 0 W U Ng
29 Sep Derby A 0 1 L U Ng



Nott’m Forest basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 2 1 61 5 5 4 2
Last 3 1 2 0 56 3 2 1 2
At Away 4 2 2 58 7 6 4 4




Nott’m Forest latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
06 Nov Preston H 3 0 W O Ng
02 Nov Sheffield United H 1 1 D U Gg
29 Oct QPR A 1 1 D U Gg
24 Oct Fulham H 0 4 L O Ng
19 Oct Bristol City A 2 1 W O Gg
16 Oct Blackpool H 2 1 W O Gg
02 Oct Birmingham A 3 0 W O Ng
29 Sep Barnsley A 3 1 W O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Reading is -0.333 and for the Nott’m Forest is 0.424.
  • The home dynamic for the Reading is 0.363 and the dynamic as a guest for the Nott’m Forest is 0.426.
  • The offensive ability for the Reading is -0.497 and for the Nott’m Forest is 0.621.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Reading is -0.682 and for the Nott’m Forest is -0.539.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Reading 27% 35% 24% 14%
Nott’m Forest 27% 33% 27% 12%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Reading to score 1.06 goals and Nott’m Forest to score 1.29 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.35 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.23 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Reading to score 1.24 goals and Nott’m Forest to score 1.24 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 13.33 0-1 3.82
1 5.35 2-3 1.99
2 3.91 4+ 4.2
3 4.07 Ov 1.5 1.35
4 6.49 Un 1.5 3.82
5 14.93 Ov 2.5 2.07
6+ 58.82 Un 2.5 1.93
Gg 1.89 Ov 3.5 4.2
NoG 2.11 Un 3.5 1.31


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.73 3.49 2.88
2-3 goals 2.73 4.29 2.5
4+ goals 2.87 2.94 3.22
Ov 1.5 2.77 3.74 2.69
Un 1.5 2.73 3.49 2.88
Ov 2.5 2.41 5.98 2.4
Un 2.5 3.2 2.7 3.16
Ov 3.5 2.87 2.94 3.22
Un 3.5 2.73 3.98 2.62
Goal-Goal 3.25 2.67 3.15
No Goal 2.36 6.31 2.39
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.53 5.09 2.45
NG+Un 2.5 2.48 6.31 2.45



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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