Reggina Vs Cremonese

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Reggina and Cremonese for Serie B (Italy).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.44 3.04 3.12 2.3 1.59
Estim 2.46 3.33 3.41 2.49 1.67
Value % -0.33 -2.86 -2.73 -3.32 -3.01



Basic Data and latest results


Reggina basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 0 2 67 4 3 1 5
Last 3 2 0 1 67 2 1 0 3
At Home 3 2 1 61 3 4 3 3




Reggina latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
05 Nov Cosenza A 1 0 W U Ng
01 Nov Cittadella H 0 1 L U Ng
28 Oct Perugia A 2 0 W U Ng
24 Oct Parma H 2 1 W O Gg
16 Oct Vicenza A 1 0 W U Ng
02 Oct Pisa A 0 2 L U Ng
25 Sep Frosinone H 0 0 D U Ng
21 Sep Pordenone A 1 1 D U Gg



Cremonese basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 4 1 39 5 5 1 5
Last 3 0 3 0 33 3 3 1 2
At Away 2 1 2 47 3 4 2 3




Cremonese latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
06 Nov Spal H 1 1 D U Gg
01 Nov Pordenone A 2 2 D O Gg
28 Oct Pisa H 1 1 D U Gg
23 Oct Brescia A 0 1 L U Ng
17 Oct Benevento H 1 1 D U Gg
02 Oct Ternana H 2 0 W U Ng
26 Sep Vicenza A 1 0 W U Ng
22 Sep Perugia H 0 3 L O Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Reggina is 0.356 and for the Cremonese is 0.056.
  • The home dynamic for the Reggina is 0.243 and the dynamic as a guest for the Cremonese is 0.057.
  • The offensive ability for the Reggina is 0.07 and for the Cremonese is 0.621.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Reggina is 0.202 and for the Cremonese is -0.678.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Reggina 25% 41% 21% 13%
Cremonese 32% 42% 18% 8%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Reggina to score 1.19 goals and Cremonese to score 1 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.19 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.19 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Reggina to score 1.22 goals and Cremonese to score 1.02 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.24 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.2 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 12.5 0-1 3.16
1 4.24 2-3 1.98
2 3.53 4+ 5.65
3 4.48 Ov 1.5 1.46
4 7.94 Un 1.5 3.16
5 25 Ov 2.5 2.5
6+ 90.91 Un 2.5 1.67
Gg 1.96 Ov 3.5 5.65
NoG 2.04 Un 3.5 1.22


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.39 3.95 3.04
2-3 goals 2.57 2.94 3.69
4+ goals 2.27 3.69 3.47
Ov 1.5 2.48 3.1 3.63
Un 1.5 2.39 3.95 3.04
Ov 2.5 1.92 8.33 2.78
Un 2.5 3.01 2.38 4.05
Ov 3.5 2.27 3.69 3.47
Un 3.5 2.5 3.26 3.41
Goal-Goal 3.07 2.31 4.14
No Goal 2.03 6.12 2.9
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.03 7.02 2.74
NG+Un 2.5 2.15 6.12 2.89



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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