Sheffield United Vs Coventry

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Sheffield United and Coventry for Championship (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.02 3.49 3.73 1.93 1.91
Estim 2.52 3.73 2.99 2.04 1.96
Value % -9.82 -1.84 6.64 -2.79 -1.34



Basic Data and latest results


Sheffield United basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 1 3 39 5 6 4 2
Last 3 0 1 2 11 2 3 1 2
At Home 3 1 4 42 6 7 5 3




Sheffield United latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
06 Nov Blackburn A 1 3 L O Gg
02 Nov Nott’m Forest A 1 1 D U Gg
30 Oct Blackpool H 0 1 L U Ng
24 Oct Barnsley A 3 2 W O Gg
19 Oct Millwall H 1 2 L O Gg
16 Oct Stoke H 2 1 W O Gg
02 Oct Bournemouth A 1 2 L O Gg
28 Sep Middlesbrough A 0 2 L U Ng



Coventry basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 2 2 44 6 5 4 2
Last 3 2 0 1 67 3 2 2 1
At Away 2 2 4 33 5 6 3 5




Coventry latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
06 Nov Bristol City H 3 2 W O Gg
02 Nov Swansea H 1 2 L O Gg
30 Oct Hull A 1 0 W U Ng
23 Oct Derby H 1 1 D U Gg
20 Oct Preston A 1 2 L O Gg
16 Oct Blackburn A 2 2 D O Gg
02 Oct Fulham H 4 1 W O Gg
29 Sep Luton A 0 5 L O Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Sheffield United is -0.222 and for the Coventry is 0.12.
  • The home dynamic for the Sheffield United is 0.131 and the dynamic as a guest for the Coventry is -0.358.
  • The offensive ability for the Sheffield United is 0.497 and for the Coventry is 1.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Sheffield United is -1 and for the Coventry is -0.591.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Sheffield United 25% 34% 24% 16%
Coventry 30% 31% 27% 12%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sheffield United to score 1.54 goals and Coventry to score 0.99 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and the home team Sheffield United to win by 0.55 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sheffield United to score 1.31 goals and Coventry to score 1.2 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.11 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 12.99 0-1 3.85
1 5.46 2-3 2.02
2 4.02 4+ 4.08
3 4.07 Ov 1.5 1.35
4 6.45 Un 1.5 3.85
5 14.08 Ov 2.5 2.04
6+ 52.63 Un 2.5 1.96
Gg 1.92 Ov 3.5 4.08
NoG 2.08 Un 3.5 1.32


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.5 3.38 3.29
2-3 goals 2.49 4.63 2.62
4+ goals 2.63 2.92 3.6
Ov 1.5 2.53 3.87 2.88
Un 1.5 2.5 3.38 3.29
Ov 2.5 2.25 5.85 2.6
Un 2.5 2.86 2.77 3.46
Ov 3.5 2.63 2.92 3.6
Un 3.5 2.49 4.1 2.82
Goal-Goal 3.08 2.72 3.25
No Goal 2.11 6.23 2.73
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.44 4.92 2.58
NG+Un 2.5 2.26 6.23 2.73



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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