Solihull Vs Chesterfield

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Solihull and Chesterfield for Conference (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 3.09 3.43 2.2 1.96 1.86
Estim 3 3.64 2.55 2.01 1.99
Value % 0.97 -1.68 -6.24 -1.27 -3.51



Basic Data and latest results


Solihull basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 2 1 61 3 2 1 5
Last 3 1 1 1 44 1 2 1 2
At Home 4 3 1 62 7 5 4 4




Solihull latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
13 Nov Notts County A 0 2 L U Ng
30 Oct Yeovil H 0 0 D U Ng
26 Oct Altrincham A 2 1 W O Gg
23 Oct Halifax H 1 0 W U Ng
09 Oct King’s Lynn A 1 0 W U Ng
05 Oct Wealdstone A 0 0 D U Ng
02 Oct Southend H 2 0 W U Ng
25 Sep Dag and Red A 1 5 L O Gg



Chesterfield basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 2 0 78 6 3 4 2
Last 3 2 1 0 78 3 1 2 1
At Away 4 3 1 62 7 3 3 5




Chesterfield latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
13 Nov Weymouth H 4 0 W O Ng
30 Oct Dag and Red A 2 2 D O Gg
26 Oct Eastleigh H 1 0 W U Ng
23 Oct Boreham Wood H 2 1 W O Gg
09 Oct Southend A 4 0 W O Ng
05 Oct Wrexham A 1 1 D U Gg
28 Sep Woking A 1 3 L O Gg
25 Sep Torquay H 2 2 D O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Solihull is 0.281 and for the Chesterfield is 0.816.
  • The home dynamic for the Solihull is 0.243 and the dynamic as a guest for the Chesterfield is 0.426.
  • The offensive ability for the Solihull is -0.497 and for the Chesterfield is 1.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Solihull is 0.459 and for the Chesterfield is 0.217.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Solihull 24% 42% 21% 12%
Chesterfield 25% 34% 25% 17%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Solihull to score 1.09 goals and Chesterfield to score 1.4 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and the guest team Chesterfield to win by 0.31 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Solihull to score 1.22 goals and Chesterfield to score 1.33 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.11 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 16.39 0-1 4.03
1 5.35 2-3 2
2 3.94 4+ 3.95
3 4.05 Ov 1.5 1.33
4 6.06 Un 1.5 4.03
5 14.93 Ov 2.5 2
6+ 47.62 Un 2.5 1.99
Gg 1.76 Ov 3.5 3.95
NoG 2.31 Un 3.5 1.34


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.38 4.07 2.99
2-3 goals 3.21 3.55 2.46
4+ goals 3.47 3.42 2.39
Ov 1.5 3.29 3.51 2.43
Un 1.5 2.38 4.07 2.99
Ov 2.5 2.84 6.76 2
Un 2.5 3.2 2.49 3.51
Ov 3.5 3.47 3.42 2.39
Un 3.5 2.88 3.71 2.61
Goal-Goal 3.92 2.65 2.72
No Goal 2.3 7.1 2.35
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.95 5.78 2.05
NG+Un 2.5 2.3 7.1 2.52



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *