Sparta Rotterdam Vs Twente

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Sparta Rotterdam and Twente for Eredivisie (Holland).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.72 3.25 2.65 2.06 1.8
Estim 2.48 3.88 2.96 1.72 2.38
Value % 3.56 -5 -3.95 9.6 -13.54



Basic Data and latest results


Sparta Rotterdam basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 1 4 22 3 5 3 3
Last 3 1 0 2 33 1 2 1 2
At Home 1 3 2 33 4 6 2 4




Sparta Rotterdam latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
06 Nov Willem II A 3 0 W O Ng
31 Oct Feyenoord H 0 1 L U Ng
23 Oct Waalwijk A 0 1 L U Ng
17 Oct Groningen H 1 1 D U Gg
03 Oct PSV Eindhoven A 1 2 L O Gg
26 Sep Cambuur H 0 4 L O Ng
22 Sep Zwolle A 1 1 D U Gg
17 Sep Nijmegen H 1 1 D U Gg



Twente basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 2 2 44 6 5 3 3
Last 3 1 0 2 33 3 2 2 1
At Away 2 1 3 39 5 6 4 2




Twente latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
05 Nov Heracles H 1 0 W U Ng
30 Oct PSV Eindhoven A 2 5 L O Gg
24 Oct Nijmegen H 1 2 L O Gg
17 Oct Willem II H 1 1 D U Gg
01 Oct Groningen A 1 1 D U Gg
26 Sep Heerenveen A 3 2 W O Gg
23 Sep AZ Alkmaar H 3 1 W O Gg
19 Sep Vitesse A 4 1 W O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Sparta Rotterdam is -0.444 and for the Twente is 0.056.
  • The home dynamic for the Sparta Rotterdam is -0.315 and the dynamic as a guest for the Twente is -0.094.
  • The offensive ability for the Sparta Rotterdam is -0.422 and for the Twente is 1.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Sparta Rotterdam is -0.545 and for the Twente is -0.539.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Sparta Rotterdam 23% 28% 27% 22%
Twente 21% 40% 23% 16%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sparta Rotterdam to score 1.19 goals and Twente to score 1.21 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.02 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sparta Rotterdam to score 1.48 goals and Twente to score 1.35 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.83 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.13 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 20.83 0-1 5.03
1 6.62 2-3 2.1
2 4.52 4+ 3.08
3 3.92 Ov 1.5 1.25
4 5.13 Un 1.5 5.03
5 10.64 Ov 2.5 1.72
6+ 27.78 Un 2.5 2.38
Gg 1.64 Ov 3.5 3.08
NoG 2.56 Un 3.5 1.48


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 3.43 4.15 2.14
2-3 goals 2.3 4.21 3.05
4+ goals 2.36 3.35 3.61
Ov 1.5 2.32 3.81 3.26
Un 1.5 3.43 4.15 2.14
Ov 2.5 2 5.98 3.01
Un 2.5 3.72 2.61 2.88
Ov 3.5 2.36 3.35 3.61
Un 3.5 2.55 4.19 2.71
Goal-Goal 2.49 2.9 3.94
No Goal 2.47 8.12 2.12
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.03 5.12 3.21
NG+Un 2.5 2.72 8.12 2.1



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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