Stevenage Vs Colchester

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Stevenage and Colchester for League Two (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.25 3.24 3.25 2.29 1.64
Estim 2.67 3.66 2.84 2.22 1.82
Value % -6.99 -3.54 4.44 1.38 -6.03



Basic Data and latest results


Stevenage basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 0 2 4 11 2 5 5 1
Last 3 0 1 2 11 1 2 2 1
At Home 2 4 2 42 6 5 3 5




Stevenage latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
13 Nov Mansfield H 1 2 L O Gg
30 Oct Newport County A 0 5 L O Ng
23 Oct Leyton Orient H 0 0 D U Ng
19 Oct Northampton A 0 3 L O Ng
16 Oct Oldham A 0 3 L O Ng
09 Oct Exeter H 2 2 D O Gg
02 Oct Hartlepool H 2 0 W U Ng
25 Sep Harrogate A 0 0 D U Ng



Colchester basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 1 3 39 4 5 3 3
Last 3 1 0 2 33 2 3 3 0
At Away 2 3 2 43 3 5 3 4




Colchester latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
30 Oct Scunthorpe H 2 1 W O Gg
26 Oct Sutton H 1 3 L O Gg
23 Oct Port Vale A 0 3 L O Ng
19 Oct Bristol Rvs H 1 1 D U Gg
16 Oct Harrogate H 1 0 W U Ng
08 Oct Tranmere A 0 2 L U Ng
02 Oct Salford H 0 2 L U Ng
25 Sep Swindon A 0 0 D U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Stevenage is -0.689 and for the Colchester is -0.08.
  • The home dynamic for the Stevenage is 0.044 and the dynamic as a guest for the Colchester is -0.019.
  • The offensive ability for the Stevenage is -0.925 and for the Colchester is 0.269.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Stevenage is -0.597 and for the Colchester is -0.652.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Stevenage 32% 29% 28% 12%
Colchester 30% 36% 22% 12%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Stevenage to score 1.25 goals and Colchester to score 0.97 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.22 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.28 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Stevenage to score 1.2 goals and Colchester to score 1.16 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.36 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.04 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 10.53 0-1 3.4
1 5.03 2-3 2.03
2 3.92 4+ 4.67
3 4.22 Ov 1.5 1.42
4 7.19 Un 1.5 3.4
5 16.67 Ov 2.5 2.22
6+ 66.67 Un 2.5 1.82
Gg 2.09 Ov 3.5 4.67
NoG 1.92 Un 3.5 1.27


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 3.38 3.09 2.62
2-3 goals 2.26 4.78 2.88
4+ goals 3.1 2.85 3.06
Ov 1.5 2.46 3.97 2.93
Un 1.5 3.38 3.09 2.62
Ov 2.5 2.21 6.01 2.62
Un 2.5 3.23 2.77 3.03
Ov 3.5 3.1 2.85 3.06
Un 3.5 2.58 3.97 2.78
Goal-Goal 2.86 2.69 3.59
No Goal 2.52 5.49 2.37
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.25 5 2.82
NG+Un 2.5 2.62 5.49 2.46



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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