Stoke Vs Peterboro

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Stoke and Peterboro for Championship (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.53 4.21 6.34 1.83 2.01
Estim 1.81 4 5.08 1.94 2.07
Value % -10.11 1.25 3.91 -3.1 -1.44



Basic Data and latest results


Stoke basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 1 3 39 5 4 3 3
Last 3 2 1 0 78 3 1 1 2
At Home 5 2 1 71 7 5 3 5




Stoke latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
06 Nov Luton A 1 0 W U Ng
03 Nov Blackpool A 1 0 W U Ng
30 Oct Cardiff H 3 3 D O Gg
23 Oct Millwall A 1 2 L O Gg
19 Oct Bournemouth H 0 1 L U Ng
16 Oct Sheffield United A 1 2 L O Gg
01 Oct West Brom H 1 0 W U Ng
28 Sep Preston A 1 1 D U Gg



Peterboro basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 1 3 39 3 6 3 3
Last 3 0 1 2 11 1 3 1 2
At Away 1 0 7 12 3 8 6 2




Peterboro latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
06 Nov Fulham H 0 1 L U Ng
02 Nov Huddersfield H 1 1 D U Gg
30 Oct Swansea A 0 3 L O Ng
23 Oct QPR H 2 1 W O Gg
20 Oct Hull A 2 1 W O Gg
16 Oct Middlesbrough A 0 2 L U Ng
02 Oct Bristol City H 2 3 L O Gg
29 Sep Bournemouth H 0 0 D U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Stoke is -0.059 and for the Peterboro is -0.136.
  • The home dynamic for the Stoke is 0.594 and the dynamic as a guest for the Peterboro is -0.547.
  • The offensive ability for the Stoke is 0.572 and for the Peterboro is -0.207.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Stoke is -0.116 and for the Peterboro is -1.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Stoke 15% 31% 33% 22%
Peterboro 35% 40% 18% 7%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Stoke to score 1.94 goals and Peterboro to score 0.69 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.64 goals in the game and the home team Stoke to win by 1.25 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Stoke to score 1.61 goals and Peterboro to score 0.97 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.58 goals in the game and the home team Stoke to win by 0.64 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 19.23 0-1 4.57
1 5.99 2-3 1.86
2 3.79 4+ 4.12
3 3.66 Ov 1.5 1.28
4 5.99 Un 1.5 4.57
5 16.39 Ov 2.5 1.94
6+ 66.67 Un 2.5 2.07
Gg 1.81 Ov 3.5 4.12
NoG 2.24 Un 3.5 1.32


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.05 4.21 3.65
2-3 goals 1.67 4.37 5.77
4+ goals 1.93 3.28 5.65
Ov 1.5 1.74 3.96 5.74
Un 1.5 2.05 4.21 3.65
Ov 2.5 1.55 6.97 4.73
Un 2.5 2.19 2.76 5.55
Ov 3.5 1.93 3.28 5.65
Un 3.5 1.77 4.32 4.94
Goal-Goal 2.15 2.81 5.59
No Goal 1.5 8.58 4.6
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.67 5.81 4.34
NG+Un 2.5 1.63 8.58 4.14



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *