Strasbourg Vs Reims

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Strasbourg and Reims for Ligue One (France).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.03 3.31 4.04 2.39 1.61
Estim 1.84 3.98 4.85 2.33 1.75
Value % 5.09 -5.09 -4.13 1.08 -4.97



Basic Data and latest results


Strasbourg basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 2 2 44 5 5 4 2
Last 3 1 1 1 44 2 2 2 1
At Home 4 1 2 62 6 5 5 2




Strasbourg latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
07 Nov Nantes A 2 2 D O Gg
31 Oct Lorient H 4 0 W O Ng
24 Oct Rennes A 0 1 L U Ng
17 Oct St Etienne H 5 1 W O Gg
02 Oct Montpellier A 1 1 D U Gg
25 Sep Lille H 1 2 L O Gg
22 Sep Lens A 1 0 W U Ng
17 Sep Metz H 3 0 W O Ng



Reims basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 2 3 28 4 5 3 3
Last 3 0 1 2 11 2 2 2 1
At Away 1 3 3 29 5 5 2 5




Reims latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
07 Nov Monaco H 0 0 D U Ng
31 Oct Bordeaux A 2 3 L O Gg
24 Oct Troyes H 1 2 L O Gg
17 Oct Brest A 1 1 D U Gg
01 Oct Lens A 0 2 L U Ng
26 Sep Nantes H 3 1 W O Gg
22 Sep Lille A 1 2 L O Gg
19 Sep Lorient H 0 0 D U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Strasbourg is 0.037 and for the Reims is -0.32.
  • The home dynamic for the Strasbourg is 0.116 and the dynamic as a guest for the Reims is -0.298.
  • The offensive ability for the Strasbourg is 0.497 and for the Reims is 0.181.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Strasbourg is -0.571 and for the Reims is -0.539.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Strasbourg 22% 28% 32% 18%
Reims 46% 32% 15% 7%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Strasbourg to score 1.34 goals and Reims to score 0.83 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.17 goals in the game and the home team Strasbourg to win by 0.51 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Strasbourg to score 1.46 goals and Reims to score 0.84 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.3 goals in the game and the home team Strasbourg to win by 0.62 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 9.71 0-1 3.33
1 5.08 2-3 1.96
2 3.72 4+ 5.32
3 4.13 Ov 1.5 1.43
4 8.06 Un 1.5 3.33
5 19.61 Ov 2.5 2.33
6+ 76.92 Un 2.5 1.76
Gg 2.39 Ov 3.5 5.32
NoG 1.72 Un 3.5 1.23


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.36 2.91 4.29
2-3 goals 1.53 5.87 5.62
4+ goals 2.27 3.08 4.27
Ov 1.5 1.68 4.72 5.18
Un 1.5 2.36 2.91 4.29
Ov 2.5 1.61 7.05 4.22
Un 2.5 2.06 2.99 5.52
Ov 3.5 2.27 3.08 4.27
Un 3.5 1.76 4.27 5.04
Goal-Goal 2.26 2.82 4.92
No Goal 1.62 5.64 4.84
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.79 5.43 3.89
NG+Un 2.5 1.75 5.64 4.68



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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