Tenerife Vs Alcorcon

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Tenerife and Alcorcon for Segunda Division (Spain).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.44 4.13 7.96 2.22 1.67
Estim 1.75 4.08 5.49 2.18 1.85
Value % -12.3 0.3 5.65 0.83 -5.83



Basic Data and latest results


Tenerife basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 1 2 56 3 4 3 3
Last 3 1 1 1 44 1 2 1 2
At Home 4 1 2 62 5 4 4 3




Tenerife latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
15 Nov Malaga A 0 1 L U Ng
08 Nov Girona H 2 1 W O Gg
04 Nov Ibiza A 0 0 D U Ng
01 Nov Burgos H 4 0 W O Ng
23 Oct Leganes A 2 1 W O Gg
19 Oct Eibar H 0 1 L U Ng
16 Oct Las Palmas A 1 2 L O Gg
10 Oct Amorebieta H 2 1 W O Gg



Alcorcon basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 0 2 4 11 4 6 5 1
Last 3 0 1 2 11 3 3 3 0
At Away 1 0 7 12 3 8 4 4




Alcorcon latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
13 Nov Eibar A 1 2 L O Gg
07 Nov Amorebieta H 2 2 D O Gg
04 Nov Girona A 1 3 L O Gg
01 Nov Ibiza H 0 2 L U Ng
24 Oct Las Palmas A 0 3 L O Ng
20 Oct Leganes H 3 3 D O Gg
16 Oct Sp Gijon A 0 1 L U Ng
10 Oct Burgos H 1 0 W U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Tenerife is 0.163 and for the Alcorcon is -0.656.
  • The home dynamic for the Tenerife is 0.084 and the dynamic as a guest for the Alcorcon is -0.623.
  • The offensive ability for the Tenerife is -0.465 and for the Alcorcon is 0.269.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Tenerife is -0.227 and for the Alcorcon is -1.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Tenerife 18% 33% 26% 24%
Alcorcon 45% 35% 14% 6%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Tenerife to score 1.74 goals and Alcorcon to score 0.53 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.27 goals in the game and the home team Tenerife to win by 1.21 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Tenerife to score 1.55 goals and Alcorcon to score 0.82 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and the home team Tenerife to win by 0.73 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 12.82 0-1 3.48
1 4.78 2-3 1.97
2 3.92 4+ 4.88
3 3.95 Ov 1.5 1.4
4 7.14 Un 1.5 3.48
5 20 Ov 2.5 2.18
6+ 66.67 Un 2.5 1.85
Gg 2.19 Ov 3.5 4.88
NoG 1.84 Un 3.5 1.26


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 1.94 3.68 4.7
2-3 goals 1.64 4.42 6.12
4+ goals 1.78 4.02 5.26
Ov 1.5 1.68 4.3 5.84
Un 1.5 1.94 3.68 4.7
Ov 2.5 1.48 8.98 4.72
Un 2.5 2.06 2.81 6.3
Ov 3.5 1.78 4.02 5.26
Un 3.5 1.74 4.12 5.52
Goal-Goal 2.24 2.75 5.3
No Goal 1.47 6.97 5.61
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.67 6.69 3.97
NG+Un 2.5 1.62 6.97 4.97



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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