Ternana Vs Cittadella

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Ternana and Cittadella for Serie B (Italy).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.21 3.26 3.36 1.91 1.92
Estim 2.26 3.64 3.53 2.24 1.81
Value % -1 -3.2 -1.43 -7.71 3.17



Basic Data and latest results


Ternana basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 0 3 50 5 4 4 2
Last 3 1 0 2 33 3 2 2 1
At Home 3 0 3 50 5 4 4 2




Ternana latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
06 Nov Alessandria A 2 0 W U Ng
01 Nov Como H 1 2 L O Gg
27 Oct Cosenza A 1 3 L O Gg
23 Oct Vicenza H 5 0 W O Ng
16 Oct Pordenone A 3 1 W O Gg
02 Oct Cremonese A 0 2 L U Ng
26 Sep Spal H 1 0 W U Ng
22 Sep Parma H 3 1 W O Gg



Cittadella basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 1 2 56 4 2 1 5
Last 3 2 0 1 67 3 1 1 2
At Away 2 0 3 40 3 3 1 4




Cittadella latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
07 Nov Pisa H 2 0 W U Ng
01 Nov Reggina A 1 0 W U Ng
28 Oct Parma H 1 2 L O Gg
23 Oct Monza A 0 1 L U Ng
17 Oct Spal H 0 0 D U Ng
02 Oct Frosinone A 1 0 W U Ng
25 Sep Lecce H 1 2 L O Gg
21 Sep Benevento A 1 4 L O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Ternana is 0.015 and for the Cittadella is 0.28.
  • The home dynamic for the Ternana is -0.036 and the dynamic as a guest for the Cittadella is -0.079.
  • The offensive ability for the Ternana is 0.604 and for the Cittadella is 0.269.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Ternana is -0.167 and for the Cittadella is 0.565.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Ternana 23% 36% 25% 15%
Cittadella 35% 36% 19% 10%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Ternana to score 1.46 goals and Cittadella to score 1.09 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and the home team Ternana to win by 0.37 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Ternana to score 1.32 goals and Cittadella to score 1.04 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.36 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.28 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 12.5 0-1 3.45
1 4.76 2-3 2
2 3.79 4+ 4.76
3 4.24 Ov 1.5 1.41
4 7.14 Un 1.5 3.45
5 18.18 Ov 2.5 2.24
6+ 66.67 Un 2.5 1.81
Gg 1.99 Ov 3.5 4.76
NoG 2.01 Un 3.5 1.27


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.3 3.62 3.45
2-3 goals 2.16 3.79 3.68
4+ goals 2.5 3.33 3.33
Ov 1.5 2.25 3.64 3.57
Un 1.5 2.3 3.62 3.45
Ov 2.5 1.96 7.08 2.88
Un 2.5 2.59 2.61 4.33
Ov 3.5 2.5 3.33 3.33
Un 3.5 2.21 3.73 3.59
Goal-Goal 2.86 2.58 3.81
No Goal 1.87 6.21 3.29
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.11 5.89 2.81
NG+Un 2.5 1.97 6.21 3.3



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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