Torino Vs Udinese

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Torino and Udinese for Serie A (Italy).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.12 3.37 3.74 2.22 1.7
Estim 2.14 3.76 3.76 2.16 1.86
Value % -0.44 -3.08 -0.14 1.25 -5.06



Basic Data and latest results


Torino basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 0 4 33 2 5 2 4
Last 3 1 0 2 33 1 2 1 2
At Home 3 1 2 56 5 4 4 2




Torino latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
06 Nov Spezia A 0 1 L U Ng
30 Oct Sampdoria H 3 0 W O Ng
26 Oct Milan A 0 1 L U Ng
22 Oct Genoa H 3 2 W O Gg
17 Oct Napoli A 0 1 L U Ng
02 Oct Juventus H 0 1 L U Ng
27 Sep Venezia A 1 1 D U Gg
23 Sep Lazio H 1 1 D U Gg



Udinese basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 4 1 39 5 6 2 4
Last 3 1 1 1 44 2 3 1 2
At Away 1 2 2 33 3 4 1 4




Udinese latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
07 Nov Sassuolo H 3 2 W O Gg
31 Oct Inter A 0 2 L U Ng
27 Oct Verona H 1 1 D U Gg
24 Oct Atalanta A 1 1 D U Gg
17 Oct Bologna H 1 1 D U Gg
03 Oct Sampdoria A 3 3 D O Gg
26 Sep Fiorentina H 0 1 L U Ng
23 Sep Roma A 0 1 L U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Torino is -0.311 and for the Udinese is 0.096.
  • The home dynamic for the Torino is 0.163 and the dynamic as a guest for the Udinese is -0.185.
  • The offensive ability for the Torino is -0.893 and for the Udinese is 0.559.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Torino is -0.571 and for the Udinese is -1.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Torino 22% 37% 21% 20%
Udinese 36% 34% 22% 8%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Torino to score 1.37 goals and Udinese to score 0.92 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.29 goals in the game and the home team Torino to win by 0.45 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Torino to score 1.4 goals and Udinese to score 1.01 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and the home team Torino to win by 0.39 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 12.5 0-1 3.47
1 4.81 2-3 2.04
2 4.03 4+ 4.55
3 4.13 Ov 1.5 1.41
4 6.99 Un 1.5 3.47
5 16.39 Ov 2.5 2.16
6+ 62.5 Un 2.5 1.87
Gg 2.02 Ov 3.5 4.55
NoG 1.99 Un 3.5 1.29


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.15 3.6 3.89
2-3 goals 2.24 3.92 3.36
4+ goals 1.93 3.61 4.89
Ov 1.5 2.13 3.82 3.72
Un 1.5 2.15 3.6 3.89
Ov 2.5 1.79 7.57 3.23
Un 2.5 2.56 2.61 4.39
Ov 3.5 1.93 3.61 4.89
Un 3.5 2.2 3.8 3.54
Goal-Goal 2.7 2.67 3.94
No Goal 1.77 6.28 3.61
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.02 6.08 2.94
NG+Un 2.5 1.97 6.28 3.37



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *