Troyes Vs St Etienne

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Troyes and St Etienne for Ligue One (France).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.37 3.44 2.99 1.88 2
Estim 1.67 4.42 5.71 2.16 1.87
Value % 17.69 -6.45 -15.93 -6.9 3.48



Basic Data and latest results


Troyes basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 2 2 44 4 5 3 3
Last 3 1 1 1 44 2 3 3 0
At Home 1 3 2 33 6 5 3 3




Troyes latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
05 Nov Lens A 0 4 L O Ng
31 Oct Rennes H 2 2 D O Gg
24 Oct Reims A 2 1 W O Gg
17 Oct Nice H 1 0 W U Ng
03 Oct Nantes A 0 2 L U Ng
26 Sep Angers H 1 1 D U Gg
22 Sep Lyon A 1 3 L O Gg
19 Sep Montpellier H 1 1 D U Gg



St Etienne basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 3 2 33 5 6 4 2
Last 3 1 2 0 56 3 3 2 1
At Away 0 2 4 11 5 6 4 2




St Etienne latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
07 Nov Clermont H 3 2 W O Gg
30 Oct Metz A 1 1 D U Gg
22 Oct Angers H 2 2 D O Gg
17 Oct Strasbourg A 1 5 L O Gg
03 Oct Lyon H 1 1 D U Gg
25 Sep Nice H 0 3 L O Ng
22 Sep Monaco A 1 3 L O Gg
18 Sep Bordeaux H 1 2 L O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Troyes is -0.015 and for the St Etienne is -0.024.
  • The home dynamic for the Troyes is -0.179 and the dynamic as a guest for the St Etienne is -0.623.
  • The offensive ability for the Troyes is 0.005 and for the St Etienne is 0.674.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Troyes is -0.631 and for the St Etienne is -1.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Troyes 22% 12% 48% 18%
St Etienne 49% 29% 14% 7%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Troyes to score 1.41 goals and St Etienne to score 1.19 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.6 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.22 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Troyes to score 1.61 goals and St Etienne to score 0.8 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and the home team Troyes to win by 0.81 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 9.09 0-1 4.24
1 7.94 2-3 1.78
2 3.32 4+ 4.95
3 3.82 Ov 1.5 1.31
4 7.75 Un 1.5 4.24
5 16.67 Ov 2.5 2.16
6+ 76.92 Un 2.5 1.86
Gg 2.53 Ov 3.5 4.95
NoG 1.65 Un 3.5 1.25


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 3.93 2.15 3.58
2-3 goals 1.22 15.64 8.66
4+ goals 2.59 2.53 4.59
Ov 1.5 1.42 6.59 7.02
Un 1.5 3.93 2.15 3.58
Ov 2.5 1.52 5.8 5.95
Un 2.5 1.83 3.68 5.54
Ov 3.5 2.59 2.53 4.59
Un 3.5 1.53 5.47 6.1
Goal-Goal 1.81 3.41 6.48
No Goal 1.59 5.51 5.32
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.65 4.49 5.89
NG+Un 2.5 1.7 5.51 5.16



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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