Vallecano Vs Mallorca

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Vallecano and Mallorca for La Liga (Spain).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.84 3.51 4.71 2.18 1.73
Estim 1.82 4.07 4.88 2.08 1.92
Value % 0.6 -3.92 -0.74 2.21 -5.72



Basic Data and latest results


Vallecano basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 1 3 39 4 4 3 3
Last 3 1 1 1 44 2 1 1 2
At Home 5 1 0 89 5 2 4 2




Vallecano latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
06 Nov Real Madrid A 1 2 L O Gg
01 Nov Celta H 0 0 D U Ng
27 Oct Barcelona H 1 0 W U Ng
24 Oct Betis A 2 3 L O Gg
17 Oct Elche H 2 1 W O Gg
02 Oct Osasuna A 0 1 L U Ng
26 Sep Cadiz H 3 1 W O Gg
21 Sep Ath Bilbao A 2 1 W O Gg



Mallorca basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 4 1 39 5 5 2 4
Last 3 0 3 0 33 3 3 1 2
At Away 1 2 3 28 4 5 2 4




Mallorca latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
07 Nov Elche H 2 2 D O Gg
31 Oct Cadiz A 1 1 D U Gg
27 Oct Sevilla H 1 1 D U Gg
23 Oct Valencia A 2 2 D O Gg
16 Oct Sociedad A 0 1 L U Ng
02 Oct Levante H 1 0 W U Ng
26 Sep Osasuna H 2 3 L O Gg
22 Sep Real Madrid A 1 6 L O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Vallecano is -0.17 and for the Mallorca is 0.064.
  • The home dynamic for the Vallecano is 0.785 and the dynamic as a guest for the Mallorca is -0.298.
  • The offensive ability for the Vallecano is 0.07 and for the Mallorca is 0.648.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Vallecano is -0.167 and for the Mallorca is -0.678.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Vallecano 18% 37% 16% 29%
Mallorca 45% 31% 16% 8%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Vallecano to score 1.53 goals and Mallorca to score 0.79 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.32 goals in the game and the home team Vallecano to win by 0.74 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Vallecano to score 1.55 goals and Mallorca to score 0.88 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and the home team Vallecano to win by 0.67 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 12.05 0-1 3.29
1 4.52 2-3 2.14
2 4.65 4+ 4.41
3 3.95 Ov 1.5 1.44
4 6.94 Un 1.5 3.29
5 16.67 Ov 2.5 2.08
6+ 43.48 Un 2.5 1.93
Gg 2.22 Ov 3.5 4.41
NoG 1.82 Un 3.5 1.3


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 1.85 3.66 5.33
2-3 goals 1.87 4.14 4.46
4+ goals 1.68 4.63 5.28
Ov 1.5 1.81 4.29 4.7
Un 1.5 1.85 3.66 5.33
Ov 2.5 1.53 9.8 4.07
Un 2.5 2.2 2.65 5.97
Ov 3.5 1.68 4.63 5.28
Un 3.5 1.86 3.94 4.77
Goal-Goal 2.43 2.78 4.37
No Goal 1.51 6.61 5.38
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.82 6.88 3.27
NG+Un 2.5 1.72 6.61 4.67



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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