Vicenza Vs Brescia

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Vicenza and Brescia for Serie B (Italy).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 3.26 3.13 2.15 2 1.84
Estim 2.5 3.57 3.12 2.03 1.97
Value % 9.33 -3.94 -14.46 -0.74 -3.59



Basic Data and latest results


Vicenza basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 1 4 22 3 6 3 3
Last 3 0 1 2 11 2 3 1 2
At Home 0 1 4 7 2 5 1 4




Vicenza latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
06 Nov Ascoli A 1 2 L O Gg
01 Nov Parma A 0 1 L U Ng
27 Oct Monza H 1 1 D U Gg
23 Oct Ternana A 0 5 L O Ng
16 Oct Reggina H 0 1 L U Ng
03 Oct Pordenone A 4 2 W O Gg
26 Sep Cremonese H 0 1 L U Ng
21 Sep Spal A 2 3 L O Gg



Brescia basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 1 2 56 5 3 1 5
Last 3 2 1 0 78 3 1 0 3
At Away 4 1 1 72 5 4 3 3




Brescia latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
06 Nov Pordenone H 1 0 W U Ng
01 Nov Benevento A 1 0 W U Ng
28 Oct Lecce H 1 1 D U Gg
23 Oct Cremonese H 1 0 W U Ng
16 Oct Perugia A 0 1 L U Ng
03 Oct Como H 2 4 L O Gg
25 Sep Ascoli A 3 2 W O Gg
20 Sep Frosinone A 2 2 D O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Vicenza is -0.556 and for the Brescia is 0.36.
  • The home dynamic for the Vicenza is -0.873 and the dynamic as a guest for the Brescia is 0.532.
  • The offensive ability for the Vicenza is -0.422 and for the Brescia is 0.648.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Vicenza is -1 and for the Brescia is 0.278.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Vicenza 19% 44% 20% 17%
Brescia 29% 36% 21% 14%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Vicenza to score 1.05 goals and Brescia to score 1.41 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and the guest team Brescia to win by 0.36 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Vicenza to score 1.34 goals and Brescia to score 1.21 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.13 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 18.52 0-1 4.02
1 5.13 2-3 2.01
2 3.89 4+ 3.97
3 4.15 Ov 1.5 1.33
4 6.1 Un 1.5 4.02
5 15.62 Ov 2.5 2.03
6+ 41.67 Un 2.5 1.98
Gg 1.73 Ov 3.5 3.97
NoG 2.38 Un 3.5 1.34


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 1.96 4.61 3.66
2-3 goals 2.81 3.11 3.09
4+ goals 2.62 3.82 2.8
Ov 1.5 2.75 3.32 2.99
Un 1.5 1.96 4.61 3.66
Ov 2.5 2.28 7.47 2.34
Un 2.5 2.75 2.36 4.69
Ov 3.5 2.62 3.82 2.8
Un 3.5 2.46 3.49 3.26
Goal-Goal 3.44 2.56 3.14
No Goal 1.81 7.8 3.12
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.49 6.33 2.27
NG+Un 2.5 1.88 7.8 3.2



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *