Walsall Vs Rochdale

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Walsall and Rochdale for League Two (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.36 3.31 3 2.08 1.75
Estim 2.28 3.62 3.5 2.2 1.83
Value % 1.49 -2.59 -4.76 -2.62 -2.5



Basic Data and latest results


Walsall basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 2 1 61 5 4 4 2
Last 3 1 1 1 44 3 2 2 1
At Home 3 2 3 46 8 7 6 2




Walsall latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
13 Nov Harrogate H 1 3 L O Gg
30 Oct Sutton A 1 0 W U Ng
23 Oct Barrow H 2 2 D O Gg
19 Oct Oldham A 3 1 W O Gg
16 Oct Leyton Orient A 0 0 D U Ng
09 Oct Salford H 2 1 W O Gg
02 Oct Exeter A 2 2 D O Gg
25 Sep Bristol Rvs H 1 2 L O Gg



Rochdale basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 3 1 50 4 5 4 2
Last 3 2 1 0 78 3 3 3 0
At Away 3 3 2 50 6 7 5 3




Rochdale latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
13 Nov Leyton Orient H 2 2 D O Gg
30 Oct Barrow A 2 1 W O Gg
23 Oct Sutton H 3 2 W O Gg
19 Oct Salford A 0 0 D U Ng
16 Oct Swindon A 2 2 D O Gg
09 Oct Crawley Town H 0 1 L U Ng
02 Oct Bradford A 0 2 L U Ng
25 Sep Oldham H 0 1 L U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Walsall is 0.281 and for the Rochdale is 0.32.
  • The home dynamic for the Walsall is 0.092 and the dynamic as a guest for the Rochdale is 0.049.
  • The offensive ability for the Walsall is 0.572 and for the Rochdale is 0.295.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Walsall is -0.227 and for the Rochdale is -0.626.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Walsall 23% 37% 22% 18%
Rochdale 33% 37% 20% 9%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Walsall to score 1.29 goals and Rochdale to score 1.08 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.21 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Walsall to score 1.34 goals and Rochdale to score 1.06 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.28 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 12.99 0-1 3.48
1 4.76 2-3 2.02
2 3.86 4+ 4.61
3 4.22 Ov 1.5 1.4
4 6.9 Un 1.5 3.48
5 17.86 Ov 2.5 2.2
6+ 62.5 Un 2.5 1.83
Gg 1.95 Ov 3.5 4.61
NoG 2.05 Un 3.5 1.28


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.31 3.73 3.34
2-3 goals 2.32 3.59 3.44
4+ goals 2.15 3.56 3.95
Ov 1.5 2.26 3.58 3.58
Un 1.5 2.31 3.73 3.34
Ov 2.5 1.88 7.44 2.99
Un 2.5 2.76 2.54 4.11
Ov 3.5 2.15 3.56 3.95
Un 3.5 2.32 3.64 3.4
Goal-Goal 2.8 2.58 3.92
No Goal 1.9 6.32 3.16
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.05 6.15 2.86
NG+Un 2.5 2.06 6.32 3.07



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *