Weymouth Vs Altrincham

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Weymouth and Altrincham for Conference (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.91 3.56 2.25 1.75 2.12
Estim 2.39 3.77 3.15 2.02 1.98
Value % 7.48 -1.56 -12.7 -7.64 3.34



Basic Data and latest results


Weymouth basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 1 3 39 3 4 2 4
Last 3 2 0 1 67 2 1 1 2
At Home 2 3 2 43 6 6 2 5




Weymouth latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
13 Nov Chesterfield A 0 4 L O Ng
30 Oct King’s Lynn H 1 0 W U Ng
26 Oct Aldershot A 2 0 W U Ng
23 Oct Wealdstone H 1 1 D U Gg
09 Oct Halifax A 0 2 L U Ng
05 Oct Bromley A 0 3 L O Ng
02 Oct Stockport H 1 2 L O Gg
25 Sep Barnet A 1 3 L O Gg



Altrincham basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 2 3 28 6 5 3 3
Last 3 0 1 2 11 3 3 2 1
At Away 2 1 4 33 5 7 4 3




Altrincham latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
13 Nov Boreham Wood H 1 1 D U Gg
30 Oct Woking A 2 3 L O Gg
26 Oct Solihull H 1 2 L O Gg
23 Oct Eastleigh A 1 2 L O Gg
12 Oct Yeovil A 1 1 D U Gg
09 Oct Maidenhead H 2 0 W U Ng
05 Oct Grimsby H 2 3 L O Gg
02 Oct Dag and Red A 3 2 W O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Weymouth is -0.126 and for the Altrincham is -0.336.
  • The home dynamic for the Weymouth is -0.235 and the dynamic as a guest for the Altrincham is -0.298.
  • The offensive ability for the Weymouth is -0.39 and for the Altrincham is 1.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Weymouth is -0.167 and for the Altrincham is -0.678.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Weymouth 26% 31% 24% 19%
Altrincham 30% 35% 22% 12%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Weymouth to score 1.24 goals and Altrincham to score 1.5 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.74 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.26 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Weymouth to score 1.36 goals and Altrincham to score 1.16 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.2 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 12.99 0-1 3.8
1 5.38 2-3 2.07
2 4.15 4+ 3.97
3 4.12 Ov 1.5 1.36
4 6.33 Un 1.5 3.8
5 14.08 Ov 2.5 2.02
6+ 43.48 Un 2.5 1.98
Gg 1.93 Ov 3.5 3.97
NoG 2.08 Un 3.5 1.34


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.77 3.42 2.89
2-3 goals 2.25 4.36 3.06
4+ goals 2.36 3.27 3.71
Ov 1.5 2.29 3.91 3.26
Un 1.5 2.77 3.42 2.89
Ov 2.5 1.99 6.43 2.93
Un 2.5 3 2.68 3.41
Ov 3.5 2.36 3.27 3.71
Un 3.5 2.41 3.97 3
Goal-Goal 2.69 2.76 3.76
No Goal 2.14 6.23 2.68
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.11 5.3 2.96
NG+Un 2.5 2.34 6.23 2.66



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *