Wigan Vs Oxford

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Wigan and Oxford for League One (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.13 3.41 3.39 2.01 1.82
Estim 2.06 3.73 4.03 2.2 1.83
Value % 1.6 -2.52 -4.68 -4.3 -0.3



Basic Data and latest results


Wigan basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 0 2 67 6 3 4 2
Last 3 2 0 1 67 3 2 2 1
At Home 5 1 3 59 9 5 4 5




Wigan latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
02 Nov Fleetwood Town A 3 2 W O Gg
30 Oct Burton H 2 0 W U Ng
26 Oct Lincoln H 1 2 L O Gg
23 Oct AFC Wimbledon A 2 0 W U Ng
19 Oct Milton Keynes Dons H 1 2 L O Gg
16 Oct Bolton A 4 0 W O Ng
02 Oct Gillingham A 2 0 W U Ng
28 Sep Sheffield Weds H 1 2 L O Gg



Oxford basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 1 1 72 5 4 4 2
Last 3 2 1 0 78 2 2 2 1
At Away 2 2 3 38 5 6 4 3




Oxford latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
13 Nov Ipswich A 0 0 D U Ng
30 Oct Morecambe H 3 1 W O Gg
23 Oct Burton A 3 1 W O Gg
19 Oct Shrewsbury H 2 0 W U Ng
16 Oct Plymouth H 1 3 L O Gg
02 Oct Sheffield Weds A 2 1 W O Gg
28 Sep Accrington H 5 1 W O Gg
25 Sep Gillingham H 1 1 D U Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Wigan is 0.356 and for the Oxford is 0.624.
  • The home dynamic for the Wigan is 0.251 and the dynamic as a guest for the Oxford is -0.026.
  • The offensive ability for the Wigan is 1 and for the Oxford is 0.533.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Wigan is 0.116 and for the Oxford is -0.157.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Wigan 19% 38% 25% 18%
Oxford 37% 35% 18% 9%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Wigan to score 1.42 goals and Oxford to score 1.02 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and the home team Wigan to win by 0.4 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Wigan to score 1.41 goals and Oxford to score 0.99 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and the home team Wigan to win by 0.42 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 13.89 0-1 3.55
1 4.76 2-3 1.98
2 3.8 4+ 4.67
3 4.13 Ov 1.5 1.39
4 6.99 Un 1.5 3.55
5 18.18 Ov 2.5 2.19
6+ 62.5 Un 2.5 1.83
Gg 1.98 Ov 3.5 4.67
NoG 2.02 Un 3.5 1.27


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 1.99 3.92 4.15
2-3 goals 2.03 3.8 4.11
4+ goals 2.28 3.4 3.75
Ov 1.5 2.1 3.67 3.99
Un 1.5 1.99 3.92 4.15
Ov 2.5 1.83 7.24 3.17
Un 2.5 2.31 2.66 5.24
Ov 3.5 2.28 3.4 3.75
Un 3.5 2.01 3.84 4.12
Goal-Goal 2.77 2.58 3.98
No Goal 1.64 6.88 4.09
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.04 5.92 2.94
NG+Un 2.5 1.75 6.88 3.96



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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