Wrexham Vs Wealdstone

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Wrexham and Wealdstone for Conference (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.38 4.61 7.22 1.68 2.16
Estim 1.8 4.24 4.78 1.95 2.05
Value % -16.91 1.89 7.07 -8.24 2.48



Basic Data and latest results


Wrexham basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 2 1 61 6 4 4 2
Last 3 2 1 0 78 3 2 2 1
At Home 2 3 0 60 5 3 0 5




Wrexham latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
13 Nov King’s Lynn A 6 2 W O Gg
09 Nov Aldershot A 5 0 W O Ng
30 Oct Torquay H 1 1 D U Gg
26 Oct Maidenhead A 2 3 L O Gg
23 Oct Barnet A 3 0 W O Ng
05 Oct Chesterfield H 1 1 D U Gg
25 Sep Stockport A 1 2 L O Gg
18 Sep Dag and Red H 1 0 W U Ng



Wealdstone basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 2 2 44 4 3 2 4
Last 3 2 1 0 78 3 1 0 3
At Away 1 2 3 28 4 5 3 3




Wealdstone latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
13 Nov Barnet H 1 0 W U Ng
26 Oct Grimsby H 1 0 W U Ng
23 Oct Weymouth A 1 1 D U Gg
09 Oct Eastleigh H 1 2 L O Gg
05 Oct Solihull H 0 0 D U Ng
02 Oct Torquay A 0 5 L O Ng
25 Sep King’s Lynn A 1 0 W U Ng
18 Sep Aldershot H 2 2 D O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Wrexham is 0.37 and for the Wealdstone is 0.176.
  • The home dynamic for the Wrexham is 0.323 and the dynamic as a guest for the Wealdstone is -0.26.
  • The offensive ability for the Wrexham is 1 and for the Wealdstone is 0.322.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Wrexham is -0.227 and for the Wealdstone is 0.243.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Wrexham 23% 22% 27% 28%
Wealdstone 39% 37% 17% 7%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Wrexham to score 2.17 goals and Wealdstone to score 0.64 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.81 goals in the game and the home team Wrexham to win by 1.53 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Wrexham to score 1.6 goals and Wealdstone to score 0.91 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and the home team Wrexham to win by 0.69 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 11.24 0-1 3.82
1 5.78 2-3 2.04
2 4.41 4+ 4.03
3 3.8 Ov 1.5 1.36
4 6.1 Un 1.5 3.82
5 15.38 Ov 2.5 1.96
6+ 52.63 Un 2.5 2.04
Gg 2.14 Ov 3.5 4.03
NoG 1.88 Un 3.5 1.33


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.98 2.94 3.08
2-3 goals 1.55 5.9 5.38
4+ goals 1.64 3.87 7.52
Ov 1.5 1.58 5.02 5.95
Un 1.5 2.98 2.94 3.08
Ov 2.5 1.42 7.98 5.94
Un 2.5 2.52 2.84 3.98
Ov 3.5 1.64 3.87 7.52
Un 3.5 1.86 4.37 4.27
Goal-Goal 1.86 3.18 6.69
No Goal 1.75 5.98 3.83
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.53 6.02 5.5
NG+Un 2.5 2.09 5.98 3.3



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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