Horse racing tipsters! Do they do a good job?

Horse racing is a fascinating sport and, of course, a favorite betting opportunity for many punters. As expected, there are many tipsters in the field but do they do a good job? Do they offer opportunities and expertise?

Well, I analyzed the data of 53.071 horses from 5.650 races of all kinds (Sprints, Medium Distance Races, Chase and Hurdles), and in this article, I will present you the results.

You can follow my blog at BlogAbet (https://mathtowincom.blogabet.com/) completely free to see what I like to play in the races.

 

The next table presents the percentage per finishing position in correlation with the numbers of tipsters who recommended the horse.

 

Position

0 Tips

1 Tip

2 Tips

3 Tips

4 Tips

5 Tips

6 Tips

7 Tips

8 Tips

1

5,0%

11,2%

15,5%

18,7%

21,6%

23,6%

31,7%

30,4%

37,7%

2

6,7%

11,6%

14,7%

15,7%

19,1%

19,4%

19,2%

22,7%

18,2%

3

7,8%

11,6%

13,5%

13,5%

14,4%

15,2%

14,3%

14,2%

16,1%

4

8,8%

11,3%

11,9%

11,4%

11,4%

10,5%

8,1%

8,2%

7,9%

5

9,1%

10,1%

9,9%

11,0%

8,9%

8,1%

7,4%

8,6%

6,9%

6

9,4%

8,6%

7,9%

7,2%

6,7%

5,7%

4,4%

3,9%

3,7%

7

8,8%

7,8%

5,6%

5,1%

5,2%

4,3%

3,9%

4,1%

2,6%

8

8,1%

5,9%

5,4%

4,1%

2,7%

3,2%

1,8%

2,0%

0,8%

9+

36,3%

21,8%

15,6%

13,3%

10,0%

10,1%

9,3%

6,0%

6,1%

 

The next graph presents the above data in a nice graphical form!

So they do a very good job predicting the winners; it is an absolute correlation between the number of tipsters that recommend a horse and the winning chances of this horse.

And now the million-dollar question: We are about to make money or not? Let’s see the capital return for these horses!

The next table answers this question (in a disappointing way!).

Tips

Races

Wins

Win %

Return

Yield

Total SP

Win SP

0

31.922

1.612

5,0%

21.455

-32,8%

23,00

9,50

1

9.169

1.023

11,2%

7.366

-19,7%

9,00

6,00

2

4.319

669

15,5%

3.614

-16,3%

6,50

4,50

3

2.550

478

18,7%

2.175

-14,7%

5,00

4,00

4

1.648

356

21,6%

1.404

-14,8%

4,33

3,50

5

1.043

246

23,6%

861

-17,5%

4,00

3,25

6

720

228

31,7%

737

2,4%

3,50

3,00

7

537

163

30,4%

470

-12,4%

3,00

2,75

8

379

143

37,7%

367

-3,2%

2,88

2,38

 

The Total-SP column is the average SP for all races, and the Win-SP column is the average SP for the actual winners.

 

The next graph presents the winning % and the capital return percentage concerning the tipsters that suggest a specific horse.

We find the winners, but we lose money in the long run. Why? Because a very big crowd who follow these tipsters decreases the odds below the “fair” price.

The following graph presents the difference between a fair SP and the actual SP, which explains why you will lose money blindly following the tipsters.

Well, that’s all for starters! More articles will follow, and don’t forget to check what I’m betting in the races at BlogAbet (https://mathtowincom.blogabet.com/) – completely free, of course!

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