Championship
In this article we will analyse the following games:
(with blue color are the value bets as estimated by the optimal equations method).
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Away, Under (3.75 %, 0.79 %) so let's further analyze the game.
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Fulham and the red line for guest team, Bournemouth.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Fulham to score 1.67 goals and Bournemouth to score 0.91 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.58 goals in the game and the home team Fulham to win by 0.76 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Fulham to score 1.41 goals and Bournemouth to score 1.07 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and the home team Fulham to win by 0.34 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios?
The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number!
Use it and get great odds for your choices!
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Over (0.87 %) so let's further analyze the game.
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Middlesbrough and the red line for guest team, Swansea.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Middlesbrough to score 1.41 goals and Swansea to score 0.91 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.32 goals in the game and the home team Middlesbrough to win by 0.5 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Middlesbrough to score 1.4 goals and Swansea to score 1.05 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and the home team Middlesbrough to win by 0.35 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios?
The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number!
Use it and get great odds for your choices!
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Over (12.79 %, 1.13 %) so let's further analyze the game.
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Coventry and the red line for guest team, West Brom.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Coventry to score 1.06 goals and West Brom to score 1.28 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.34 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.22 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Coventry to score 1.38 goals and West Brom to score 1.08 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.3 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios?
The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number!
Use it and get great odds for your choices!
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home (6.86 %) so let's further analyze the game.
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Reading and the red line for guest team, Hull.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Reading to score 1.28 goals and Hull to score 1.1 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.18 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Reading to score 1.42 goals and Hull to score 1.03 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and the home team Reading to win by 0.39 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios?
The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number!
Use it and get great odds for your choices!
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Over (1.99 %, 4.3 %) so let's further analyze the game.
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Millwall and the red line for guest team, Birmingham.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Millwall to score 1.25 goals and Birmingham to score 0.88 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.13 goals in the game and the home team Millwall to win by 0.37 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Millwall to score 1.41 goals and Birmingham to score 0.97 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and the home team Millwall to win by 0.44 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios?
The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number!
Use it and get great odds for your choices!
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Over (3.83 %, 1.21 %) so let's further analyze the game.
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Bristol City and the red line for guest team, Derby.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Bristol City to score 1.18 goals and Derby to score 1.06 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.24 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.12 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Bristol City to score 1.34 goals and Derby to score 1.05 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.29 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios?
The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number!
Use it and get great odds for your choices!
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Over (5.44 %, 1.25 %) so let's further analyze the game.
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Blackpool and the red line for guest team, Luton.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Blackpool to score 1.12 goals and Luton to score 1.16 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.28 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.04 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Blackpool to score 1.3 goals and Luton to score 1.11 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.19 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios?
The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number!
Use it and get great odds for your choices!
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Over (2.17 %) so let's further analyze the game.
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Nott'm Forest and the red line for guest team, Peterboro.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Nott'm Forest to score 1.6 goals and Peterboro to score 0.79 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and the home team Nott'm Forest to win by 0.81 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Nott'm Forest to score 1.59 goals and Peterboro to score 0.95 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and the home team Nott'm Forest to win by 0.64 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios?
The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number!
Use it and get great odds for your choices!
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Under (5.34 %, 2.04 %) so let's further analyze the game.
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Cardiff and the red line for guest team, Sheffield United.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Cardiff to score 1.1 goals and Sheffield United to score 1.41 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and the guest team Sheffield United to win by 0.31 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Cardiff to score 1.2 goals and Sheffield United to score 1.18 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.02 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios?
The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number!
Use it and get great odds for your choices!
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Over (3.9 %, 1.27 %) so let's further analyze the game.
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Blackburn and the red line for guest team, Preston.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Blackburn to score 1.38 goals and Preston to score 1.06 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and the home team Blackburn to win by 0.32 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Blackburn to score 1.49 goals and Preston to score 1.08 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.57 goals in the game and the home team Blackburn to win by 0.41 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios?
The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number!
Use it and get great odds for your choices!
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Over (0.13 %, 0.97 %) so let's further analyze the game.
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Barnsley and the red line for guest team, Huddersfield.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Barnsley to score 1.11 goals and Huddersfield to score 1.12 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.23 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.01 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Barnsley to score 1.18 goals and Huddersfield to score 1.15 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.03 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios?
The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number!
Use it and get great odds for your choices!
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Over (5.55 %, 2 %) so let's further analyze the game.
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, QPR and the red line for guest team, Stoke.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) QPR to score 1.31 goals and Stoke to score 1.11 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.2 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) QPR to score 1.47 goals and Stoke to score 1.08 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and the home team QPR to win by 0.39 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios?
The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number!
Use it and get great odds for your choices!
| Teams | Date | Home | Draw | Away | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham - Bournemouth | 03-Dec | 1.84 | 3.68 | 4.27 | 1.89 | 1.96 |
| Middlesbrough - Swansea | 04-Dec | 2.02 | 3.51 | 3.71 | 2.17 | 1.72 |
| Coventry - West Brom | 04-Dec | 3.1 | 3.26 | 2.38 | 2.13 | 1.74 |
| Reading - Hull | 04-Dec | 2.44 | 3.24 | 3.03 | 2.09 | 1.77 |
| Millwall - Birmingham | 04-Dec | 2.17 | 3.21 | 3.61 | 2.43 | 1.57 |
| Bristol City - Derby | 04-Dec | 2.51 | 3.21 | 2.95 | 2.26 | 1.65 |
| Blackpool - Luton | 04-Dec | 2.8 | 3.16 | 2.66 | 2.22 | 1.69 |
| Nott'm Forest - Peterboro | 04-Dec | 1.78 | 3.67 | 4.79 | 2.08 | 1.79 |
| Cardiff - Sheffield United | 04-Dec | 3.21 | 3.36 | 2.27 | 1.95 | 1.89 |
| Blackburn - Preston | 04-Dec | 2.24 | 3.39 | 3.23 | 2.01 | 1.83 |
| Barnsley - Huddersfield | 04-Dec | 2.73 | 3.19 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.65 |
| QPR - Stoke | 05-Dec | 2.39 | 3.3 | 3.03 | 2.04 | 1.8 |
Click here to view the mathematical predictions for today!
Fulham vs Bournemouth at 03 Dec 2021
In this article I will analyze the game between Fulham and Bournemouth for Championship (England).| Odds | Home | Draw | Away | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | 1.84 | 3.68 | 4.27 | 1.89 | 1.96 |
| Ours | 2.18 | 3.7 | 3.68 | 2.08 | 1.93 |
| Value % | -8.48 | -0.15 | 3.75 | -4.83 | 0.79 |
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Away, Under (3.75 %, 0.79 %) so let's further analyze the game.
Basic Data and latest results
Fulham
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 78 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| Last 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 56 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| At Home | 7 | 2 | 1 | 77 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 4 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Nov | Preston | A | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 24 Nov | Derby | H | 0 | 0 | D | U | Ng |
| 20 Nov | Barnsley | H | 4 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 06 Nov | Peterboro | A | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 03 Nov | Blackburn | A | 7 | 0 | W | O | Ng |
| 30 Oct | West Brom | H | 3 | 0 | W | O | Ng |
| 24 Oct | Nott'm Forest | A | 4 | 0 | W | O | Ng |
| 20 Oct | Cardiff | H | 2 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
Bournemouth
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 44 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| Last 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| At Away | 6 | 3 | 1 | 70 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 8 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Nov | Coventry | H | 2 | 2 | D | O | Gg |
| 24 Nov | Millwall | A | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 21 Nov | Derby | A | 2 | 3 | L | O | Gg |
| 06 Nov | Swansea | H | 4 | 0 | W | O | Ng |
| 03 Nov | Preston | H | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 30 Oct | Reading | A | 2 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 23 Oct | Huddersfield | H | 3 | 0 | W | O | Ng |
| 19 Oct | Stoke | A | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
Desicive Betting factors
| Factors | Fulham | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| Form Score | 0.587 | -0.022 |
| Home/Away form | 0.477 | 0.689 |
| Off ability | 0.474 | 1 |
| Def ability | 0.478 | -0.407 |
Optimal equations estimations
The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:| Team | No-G | 1 gl | 2 gls | 3+ gls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham | 20% | 38% | 24% | 18% |
| Bournemouth | 33% | 36% | 22% | 9% |
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Fulham and the red line for guest team, Bournemouth.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Fulham to score 1.67 goals and Bournemouth to score 0.91 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.58 goals in the game and the home team Fulham to win by 0.76 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Fulham to score 1.41 goals and Bournemouth to score 1.07 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and the home team Fulham to win by 0.34 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
| Goals | Odds | Goals | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.38 | 0-1 | 3.83 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 2-3 | 1.98 |
| 2 | 3.88 | 4+ | 4.29 |
| 3 | 4.03 | Ov 1.5 | 1.35 |
| 4 | 6.54 | Un 1.5 | 3.83 |
| 5 | 15.87 | Ov 2.5 | 2.08 |
| 6+ | 58.82 | Un 2.5 | 1.93 |
| Gg | 1.86 | Ov 3.5 | 4.29 |
| NoG | 2.16 | Un 3.5 | 1.3 |
| If game ends with | -1- | -X- | -2- |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 goals | 2.09 | 4.02 | 3.68 |
| 2-3 goals | 2.24 | 3.72 | 3.51 |
| 4+ goals | 2.16 | 3.38 | 4.16 |
| Ov 1.5 | 2.21 | 3.6 | 3.69 |
| Un 1.5 | 2.09 | 4.02 | 3.68 |
| Ov 2.5 | 1.89 | 6.97 | 3.06 |
| Un 2.5 | 2.54 | 2.58 | 4.55 |
| Ov 3.5 | 2.16 | 3.38 | 4.16 |
| Un 3.5 | 2.19 | 3.82 | 3.57 |
| Goal-Goal | 2.77 | 2.62 | 3.87 |
| No Goal | 1.74 | 7.11 | 3.5 |
| G-G+Ov 2.5 | 2.07 | 5.83 | 2.89 |
| NG+Un 2.5 | 1.88 | 7.11 | 3.36 |
Go to Top
Middlesbrough vs Swansea at 04 Dec 2021
In this article I will analyze the game between Middlesbrough and Swansea for Championship (England).| Odds | Home | Draw | Away | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | 2.02 | 3.51 | 3.71 | 2.17 | 1.72 |
| Ours | 2.17 | 3.65 | 3.75 | 2.13 | 1.88 |
| Value % | -3.42 | -1.09 | -0.29 | 0.87 | -4.95 |
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Over (0.87 %) so let's further analyze the game.
Basic Data and latest results
Middlesbrough
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 28 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 3 |
| Last 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 44 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| At Home | 4 | 2 | 4 | 47 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 6 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Nov | Huddersfield | A | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 23 Nov | Preston | H | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 20 Nov | Millwall | H | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 06 Nov | West Brom | A | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 02 Nov | Luton | A | 1 | 3 | L | O | Gg |
| 30 Oct | Birmingham | H | 0 | 2 | L | U | Ng |
| 23 Oct | Cardiff | A | 2 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 20 Oct | Barnsley | H | 2 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
Swansea
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 56 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| Last 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 44 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| At Away | 3 | 2 | 5 | 37 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 3 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Nov | Reading | H | 2 | 3 | L | O | Gg |
| 24 Nov | Barnsley | A | 2 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 20 Nov | Blackpool | H | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 06 Nov | Bournemouth | A | 0 | 4 | L | O | Ng |
| 02 Nov | Coventry | A | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 30 Oct | Peterboro | H | 3 | 0 | W | O | Ng |
| 23 Oct | Birmingham | A | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 20 Oct | West Brom | H | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
Desicive Betting factors
| Factors | Middlesbrough | Swansea |
|---|---|---|
| Form Score | -0.365 | 0.111 |
| Home/Away form | -0.037 | -0.156 |
| Off ability | 0.611 | 0.626 |
| Def ability | -1 | -0.356 |
Optimal equations estimations
The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:| Team | No-G | 1 gl | 2 gls | 3+ gls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough | 21% | 36% | 26% | 17% |
| Swansea | 32% | 40% | 18% | 10% |
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Middlesbrough and the red line for guest team, Swansea.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Middlesbrough to score 1.41 goals and Swansea to score 0.91 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.32 goals in the game and the home team Middlesbrough to win by 0.5 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Middlesbrough to score 1.4 goals and Swansea to score 1.05 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and the home team Middlesbrough to win by 0.35 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
| Goals | Odds | Goals | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.71 | 0-1 | 3.76 |
| 1 | 5.05 | 2-3 | 1.97 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 4+ | 4.44 |
| 3 | 4.1 | Ov 1.5 | 1.37 |
| 4 | 6.62 | Un 1.5 | 3.76 |
| 5 | 17.54 | Ov 2.5 | 2.13 |
| 6+ | 58.82 | Un 2.5 | 1.89 |
| Gg | 1.87 | Ov 3.5 | 4.44 |
| NoG | 2.16 | Un 3.5 | 1.29 |
| If game ends with | -1- | -X- | -2- |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 goals | 2.31 | 3.91 | 3.2 |
| 2-3 goals | 2.09 | 3.6 | 4.12 |
| 4+ goals | 2.23 | 3.46 | 3.81 |
| Ov 1.5 | 2.13 | 3.55 | 4.02 |
| Un 1.5 | 2.31 | 3.91 | 3.2 |
| Ov 2.5 | 1.8 | 7.22 | 3.26 |
| Un 2.5 | 2.66 | 2.53 | 4.37 |
| Ov 3.5 | 2.23 | 3.46 | 3.81 |
| Un 3.5 | 2.16 | 3.7 | 3.75 |
| Goal-Goal | 2.62 | 2.59 | 4.31 |
| No Goal | 1.82 | 6.82 | 3.29 |
| G-G+Ov 2.5 | 1.93 | 6.05 | 3.17 |
| NG+Un 2.5 | 1.95 | 6.82 | 3.21 |
Go to Top
Coventry vs West Brom at 04 Dec 2021
In this article I will analyze the game between Coventry and West Brom for Championship (England).| Odds | Home | Draw | Away | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | 3.1 | 3.26 | 2.38 | 2.13 | 1.74 |
| Ours | 2.22 | 3.82 | 3.47 | 2.08 | 1.93 |
| Value % | 12.79 | -4.5 | -13.2 | 1.13 | -5.66 |
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Over (12.79 %, 1.13 %) so let's further analyze the game.
Basic Data and latest results
Coventry
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 50 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Last 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 33 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| At Home | 7 | 2 | 1 | 77 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 4 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Nov | Bournemouth | A | 2 | 2 | D | O | Gg |
| 23 Nov | Birmingham | H | 0 | 0 | D | U | Ng |
| 20 Nov | Sheffield United | A | 0 | 0 | D | U | Ng |
| 06 Nov | Bristol City | H | 3 | 2 | W | O | Gg |
| 02 Nov | Swansea | H | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 30 Oct | Hull | A | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 23 Oct | Derby | H | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 20 Oct | Preston | A | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
West Brom
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 33 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| Last 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| At Away | 3 | 3 | 4 | 40 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 5 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Nov | Nott'm Forest | H | 0 | 0 | D | U | Ng |
| 23 Nov | Blackpool | A | 0 | 0 | D | U | Ng |
| 20 Nov | Huddersfield | A | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
| 06 Nov | Middlesbrough | H | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 03 Nov | Hull | H | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 30 Oct | Fulham | A | 0 | 3 | L | O | Ng |
| 23 Oct | Bristol City | H | 3 | 0 | W | O | Ng |
| 20 Oct | Swansea | A | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
Desicive Betting factors
| Factors | Coventry | West Brom |
|---|---|---|
| Form Score | 0.087 | -0.163 |
| Home/Away form | 0.361 | -0.044 |
| Off ability | -0.021 | -0.626 |
| Def ability | 0.157 | 0.059 |
Optimal equations estimations
The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:| Team | No-G | 1 gl | 2 gls | 3+ gls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry | 26% | 29% | 26% | 19% |
| West Brom | 35% | 35% | 19% | 12% |
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Coventry and the red line for guest team, West Brom.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Coventry to score 1.06 goals and West Brom to score 1.28 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.34 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.22 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Coventry to score 1.38 goals and West Brom to score 1.08 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.3 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
| Goals | Odds | Goals | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.24 | 0-1 | 3.6 |
| 1 | 5.29 | 2-3 | 2.07 |
| 2 | 4.17 | 4+ | 4.18 |
| 3 | 4.13 | Ov 1.5 | 1.39 |
| 4 | 6.67 | Un 1.5 | 3.6 |
| 5 | 14.93 | Ov 2.5 | 2.08 |
| 6+ | 45.45 | Un 2.5 | 1.93 |
| Gg | 2.06 | Ov 3.5 | 4.18 |
| NoG | 1.95 | Un 3.5 | 1.32 |
| If game ends with | -1- | -X- | -2- |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 goals | 2.78 | 3.12 | 3.12 |
| 2-3 goals | 1.94 | 4.82 | 3.62 |
| 4+ goals | 2.34 | 3.32 | 3.68 |
| Ov 1.5 | 2.05 | 4.19 | 3.64 |
| Un 1.5 | 2.78 | 3.12 | 3.12 |
| Ov 2.5 | 1.85 | 6.68 | 3.23 |
| Un 2.5 | 2.71 | 2.74 | 3.75 |
| Ov 3.5 | 2.34 | 3.32 | 3.68 |
| Un 3.5 | 2.18 | 4.02 | 3.42 |
| Goal-Goal | 2.5 | 2.82 | 4.08 |
| No Goal | 2 | 5.78 | 3.06 |
| G-G+Ov 2.5 | 1.98 | 5.35 | 3.24 |
| NG+Un 2.5 | 2.19 | 5.78 | 3.03 |
Go to Top
Reading vs Hull at 04 Dec 2021
In this article I will analyze the game between Reading and Hull for Championship (England).| Odds | Home | Draw | Away | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | 2.44 | 3.24 | 3.03 | 2.09 | 1.77 |
| Ours | 2.09 | 3.8 | 3.86 | 2.11 | 1.9 |
| Value % | 6.86 | -4.55 | -7.1 | -0.45 | -3.87 |
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home (6.86 %) so let's further analyze the game.
Basic Data and latest results
Reading
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 39 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 4 |
| Last 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 44 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| At Home | 4 | 2 | 4 | 47 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 5 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Nov | Swansea | A | 3 | 2 | W | O | Gg |
| 23 Nov | Sheffield United | H | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
| 20 Nov | Nott'm Forest | H | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 06 Nov | Birmingham | A | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 02 Nov | Millwall | A | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
| 30 Oct | Bournemouth | H | 0 | 2 | L | U | Ng |
| 23 Oct | Blackburn | A | 0 | 2 | L | U | Ng |
| 20 Oct | Blackpool | H | 2 | 3 | L | O | Gg |
Hull
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 67 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| Last 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 100 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| At Away | 3 | 1 | 6 | 33 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 9 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Nov | Millwall | H | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 24 Nov | Cardiff | A | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 20 Nov | Birmingham | H | 2 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 06 Nov | Barnsley | A | 2 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 03 Nov | West Brom | A | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
| 30 Oct | Coventry | H | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
| 23 Oct | Luton | A | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
| 20 Oct | Peterboro | H | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
Desicive Betting factors
| Factors | Reading | Hull |
|---|---|---|
| Form Score | -0.19 | 0.43 |
| Home/Away form | -0.087 | -0.563 |
| Off ability | -0.337 | 0.33 |
| Def ability | -1 | 0.037 |
Optimal equations estimations
The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:| Team | No-G | 1 gl | 2 gls | 3+ gls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reading | 22% | 32% | 28% | 18% |
| Hull | 35% | 38% | 17% | 10% |
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Reading and the red line for guest team, Hull.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Reading to score 1.28 goals and Hull to score 1.1 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.18 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Reading to score 1.42 goals and Hull to score 1.03 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and the home team Reading to win by 0.39 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
| Goals | Odds | Goals | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.16 | 0-1 | 3.7 |
| 1 | 5.15 | 2-3 | 1.99 |
| 2 | 3.91 | 4+ | 4.41 |
| 3 | 4.07 | Ov 1.5 | 1.37 |
| 4 | 6.71 | Un 1.5 | 3.7 |
| 5 | 16.67 | Ov 2.5 | 2.11 |
| 6+ | 55.56 | Un 2.5 | 1.9 |
| Gg | 1.97 | Ov 3.5 | 4.41 |
| NoG | 2.04 | Un 3.5 | 1.3 |
| If game ends with | -1- | -X- | -2- |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 goals | 2.43 | 3.55 | 3.25 |
| 2-3 goals | 1.88 | 4.18 | 4.37 |
| 4+ goals | 2.27 | 3.39 | 3.78 |
| Ov 1.5 | 1.99 | 3.9 | 4.17 |
| Un 1.5 | 2.43 | 3.55 | 3.25 |
| Ov 2.5 | 1.76 | 7.06 | 3.45 |
| Un 2.5 | 2.52 | 2.68 | 4.35 |
| Ov 3.5 | 2.27 | 3.39 | 3.78 |
| Un 3.5 | 2.04 | 3.94 | 3.9 |
| Goal-Goal | 2.47 | 2.72 | 4.42 |
| No Goal | 1.81 | 6.46 | 3.43 |
| G-G+Ov 2.5 | 1.88 | 5.79 | 3.37 |
| NG+Un 2.5 | 1.94 | 6.46 | 3.36 |
Go to Top
Millwall vs Birmingham at 04 Dec 2021
In this article I will analyze the game between Millwall and Birmingham for Championship (England).| Odds | Home | Draw | Away | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | 2.17 | 3.21 | 3.61 | 2.43 | 1.57 |
| Ours | 2.08 | 3.7 | 4.03 | 2.2 | 1.83 |
| Value % | 1.99 | -4.13 | -2.89 | 4.3 | -9.05 |
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Over (1.99 %, 4.3 %) so let's further analyze the game.
Basic Data and latest results
Millwall
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 33 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 5 |
| Last 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| At Home | 4 | 4 | 2 | 53 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 7 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Nov | Hull | A | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 24 Nov | Bournemouth | H | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 20 Nov | Middlesbrough | A | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 06 Nov | Derby | H | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 02 Nov | Reading | H | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 30 Oct | Huddersfield | A | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
| 23 Oct | Stoke | H | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 19 Oct | Sheffield United | A | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
Birmingham
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 56 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| Last 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 44 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| At Away | 3 | 3 | 4 | 40 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 8 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Nov | Blackpool | H | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 23 Nov | Coventry | A | 0 | 0 | D | U | Ng |
| 20 Nov | Hull | A | 0 | 2 | L | U | Ng |
| 06 Nov | Reading | H | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 02 Nov | Bristol City | H | 3 | 0 | W | O | Ng |
| 30 Oct | Middlesbrough | A | 2 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 23 Oct | Swansea | H | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 20 Oct | Huddersfield | A | 0 | 0 | D | U | Ng |
Desicive Betting factors
| Factors | Millwall | Birmingham |
|---|---|---|
| Form Score | -0.27 | 0.148 |
| Home/Away form | 0.129 | 0.007 |
| Off ability | 0.611 | 0.157 |
| Def ability | -0.652 | 0.333 |
Optimal equations estimations
The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:| Team | No-G | 1 gl | 2 gls | 3+ gls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Millwall | 23% | 33% | 22% | 21% |
| Birmingham | 36% | 41% | 12% | 11% |
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Millwall and the red line for guest team, Birmingham.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Millwall to score 1.25 goals and Birmingham to score 0.88 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.13 goals in the game and the home team Millwall to win by 0.37 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Millwall to score 1.41 goals and Birmingham to score 0.97 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and the home team Millwall to win by 0.44 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
| Goals | Odds | Goals | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 0-1 | 3.33 |
| 1 | 4.63 | 2-3 | 2.09 |
| 2 | 4.08 | 4+ | 4.52 |
| 3 | 4.29 | Ov 1.5 | 1.43 |
| 4 | 6.71 | Un 1.5 | 3.33 |
| 5 | 20 | Ov 2.5 | 2.2 |
| 6+ | 45.45 | Un 2.5 | 1.83 |
| Gg | 2.04 | Ov 3.5 | 4.52 |
| NoG | 1.96 | Un 3.5 | 1.29 |
| If game ends with | -1- | -X- | -2- |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 goals | 2.48 | 3.57 | 3.16 |
| 2-3 goals | 1.93 | 3.51 | 5.09 |
| 4+ goals | 1.97 | 4.51 | 3.68 |
| Ov 1.5 | 1.94 | 3.78 | 4.54 |
| Un 1.5 | 2.48 | 3.57 | 3.16 |
| Ov 2.5 | 1.63 | 9.27 | 3.6 |
| Un 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.48 | 4.43 |
| Ov 3.5 | 1.97 | 4.51 | 3.68 |
| Un 3.5 | 2.11 | 3.54 | 4.12 |
| Goal-Goal | 2.41 | 2.64 | 4.84 |
| No Goal | 1.83 | 6.07 | 3.45 |
| G-G+Ov 2.5 | 1.74 | 7.2 | 3.5 |
| NG+Un 2.5 | 2.02 | 6.07 | 3.33 |
Go to Top
Bristol City vs Derby at 04 Dec 2021
In this article I will analyze the game between Bristol City and Derby for Championship (England).| Odds | Home | Draw | Away | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | 2.51 | 3.21 | 2.95 | 2.26 | 1.65 |
| Ours | 2.29 | 3.62 | 3.47 | 2.2 | 1.83 |
| Value % | 3.83 | -3.53 | -5.08 | 1.21 | -5.96 |
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Over (3.83 %, 1.21 %) so let's further analyze the game.
Basic Data and latest results
Bristol City
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 39 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
| Last 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 44 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| At Home | 2 | 5 | 3 | 37 | 7 | 8 | 2 | 8 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Nov | Sheffield United | A | 0 | 2 | L | U | Ng |
| 24 Nov | Stoke | H | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 20 Nov | Blackburn | H | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 06 Nov | Coventry | A | 2 | 3 | L | O | Gg |
| 02 Nov | Birmingham | A | 0 | 3 | L | O | Ng |
| 30 Oct | Barnsley | H | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 23 Oct | West Brom | A | 0 | 3 | L | O | Ng |
| 19 Oct | Nott'm Forest | H | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
Derby
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 28 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 |
| Last 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 44 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| At Away | 1 | 5 | 4 | 27 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 8 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Nov | QPR | H | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 24 Nov | Fulham | A | 0 | 0 | D | U | Ng |
| 21 Nov | Bournemouth | H | 3 | 2 | W | O | Gg |
| 06 Nov | Millwall | A | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 03 Nov | Barnsley | A | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 30 Oct | Blackburn | H | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 23 Oct | Coventry | A | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 19 Oct | Luton | H | 2 | 2 | D | O | Gg |
Desicive Betting factors
| Factors | Bristol City | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| Form Score | -0.27 | -0.311 |
| Home/Away form | -0.386 | -0.296 |
| Off ability | 0.021 | 0.565 |
| Def ability | -0.565 | -0.63 |
Optimal equations estimations
The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:| Team | No-G | 1 gl | 2 gls | 3+ gls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol City | 26% | 36% | 17% | 21% |
| Derby | 35% | 37% | 16% | 12% |
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Bristol City and the red line for guest team, Derby.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Bristol City to score 1.18 goals and Derby to score 1.06 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.24 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.12 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Bristol City to score 1.34 goals and Derby to score 1.05 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.29 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
| Goals | Odds | Goals | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.99 | 0-1 | 3.21 |
| 1 | 4.52 | 2-3 | 2.17 |
| 2 | 4.27 | 4+ | 4.37 |
| 3 | 4.42 | Ov 1.5 | 1.45 |
| 4 | 6.71 | Un 1.5 | 3.21 |
| 5 | 18.18 | Ov 2.5 | 2.2 |
| 6+ | 40 | Un 2.5 | 1.83 |
| Gg | 2.07 | Ov 3.5 | 4.37 |
| NoG | 1.93 | Un 3.5 | 1.3 |
| If game ends with | -1- | -X- | -2- |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 goals | 2.52 | 3.43 | 3.22 |
| 2-3 goals | 2.3 | 3.48 | 3.59 |
| 4+ goals | 2.03 | 4.32 | 3.63 |
| Ov 1.5 | 2.2 | 3.72 | 3.61 |
| Un 1.5 | 2.52 | 3.43 | 3.22 |
| Ov 2.5 | 1.81 | 8.58 | 3.03 |
| Un 2.5 | 2.95 | 2.45 | 3.96 |
| Ov 3.5 | 2.03 | 4.32 | 3.63 |
| Un 3.5 | 2.38 | 3.46 | 3.43 |
| Goal-Goal | 2.71 | 2.61 | 4.05 |
| No Goal | 2 | 5.7 | 3.07 |
| G-G+Ov 2.5 | 1.97 | 6.6 | 2.94 |
| NG+Un 2.5 | 2.24 | 5.7 | 3 |
Go to Top
Blackpool vs Luton at 04 Dec 2021
In this article I will analyze the game between Blackpool and Luton for Championship (England).| Odds | Home | Draw | Away | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | 2.8 | 3.16 | 2.66 | 2.22 | 1.69 |
| Ours | 2.43 | 3.69 | 3.15 | 2.16 | 1.86 |
| Value % | 5.44 | -4.55 | -5.85 | 1.25 | -5.41 |
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Over (5.44 %, 1.25 %) so let's further analyze the game.
Basic Data and latest results
Blackpool
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 33 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 6 |
| Last 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| At Home | 4 | 2 | 4 | 47 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 8 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Nov | Birmingham | A | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
| 23 Nov | West Brom | H | 0 | 0 | D | U | Ng |
| 20 Nov | Swansea | A | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 06 Nov | QPR | H | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 03 Nov | Stoke | H | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
| 30 Oct | Sheffield United | A | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 23 Oct | Preston | H | 2 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 20 Oct | Reading | A | 3 | 2 | W | O | Gg |
Luton
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 4 |
| Last 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| At Away | 2 | 4 | 4 | 33 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 6 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Nov | Cardiff | H | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 23 Nov | Nott'm Forest | A | 0 | 0 | D | U | Ng |
| 19 Nov | QPR | A | 0 | 2 | L | U | Ng |
| 06 Nov | Stoke | H | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
| 02 Nov | Middlesbrough | H | 3 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 30 Oct | Preston | A | 0 | 2 | L | U | Ng |
| 23 Oct | Hull | H | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 19 Oct | Derby | A | 2 | 2 | D | O | Gg |
Desicive Betting factors
| Factors | Blackpool | Luton |
|---|---|---|
| Form Score | -0.294 | -0.519 |
| Home/Away form | -0.112 | -0.081 |
| Off ability | -0.505 | -0.539 |
| Def ability | -0.243 | -0.63 |
Optimal equations estimations
The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:| Team | No-G | 1 gl | 2 gls | 3+ gls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blackpool | 26% | 36% | 19% | 19% |
| Luton | 34% | 34% | 21% | 12% |
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Blackpool and the red line for guest team, Luton.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Blackpool to score 1.12 goals and Luton to score 1.16 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.28 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.04 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Blackpool to score 1.3 goals and Luton to score 1.11 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.19 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
| Goals | Odds | Goals | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.24 | 0-1 | 3.36 |
| 1 | 4.78 | 2-3 | 2.12 |
| 2 | 4.18 | 4+ | 4.33 |
| 3 | 4.29 | Ov 1.5 | 1.42 |
| 4 | 6.85 | Un 1.5 | 3.36 |
| 5 | 16.13 | Ov 2.5 | 2.16 |
| 6+ | 43.48 | Un 2.5 | 1.86 |
| Gg | 2.04 | Ov 3.5 | 4.33 |
| NoG | 1.96 | Un 3.5 | 1.3 |
| If game ends with | -1- | -X- | -2- |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 goals | 2.48 | 3.35 | 3.35 |
| 2-3 goals | 2.48 | 3.9 | 2.93 |
| 4+ goals | 2.26 | 3.73 | 3.45 |
| Ov 1.5 | 2.41 | 3.84 | 3.08 |
| Un 1.5 | 2.48 | 3.35 | 3.35 |
| Ov 2.5 | 2.03 | 7.48 | 2.68 |
| Un 2.5 | 2.93 | 2.56 | 3.73 |
| Ov 3.5 | 2.26 | 3.73 | 3.45 |
| Un 3.5 | 2.48 | 3.67 | 3.08 |
| Goal-Goal | 2.95 | 2.68 | 3.48 |
| No Goal | 2.08 | 5.74 | 2.9 |
| G-G+Ov 2.5 | 2.22 | 5.95 | 2.62 |
| NG+Un 2.5 | 2.27 | 5.74 | 2.89 |
Go to Top
Nott'm Forest vs Peterboro at 04 Dec 2021
In this article I will analyze the game between Nott'm Forest and Peterboro for Championship (England).| Odds | Home | Draw | Away | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | 1.78 | 3.67 | 4.79 | 2.08 | 1.79 |
| Ours | 1.81 | 3.97 | 5.15 | 1.99 | 2.01 |
| Value % | -0.93 | -2.06 | -1.46 | 2.17 | -6.11 |
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Over (2.17 %) so let's further analyze the game.
Basic Data and latest results
Nott'm Forest
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 44 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| Last 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 33 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| At Home | 2 | 3 | 5 | 30 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 4 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Nov | West Brom | A | 0 | 0 | D | U | Ng |
| 23 Nov | Luton | H | 0 | 0 | D | U | Ng |
| 20 Nov | Reading | A | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 06 Nov | Preston | H | 3 | 0 | W | O | Ng |
| 02 Nov | Sheffield United | H | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 29 Oct | QPR | A | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 24 Oct | Fulham | H | 0 | 4 | L | O | Ng |
| 19 Oct | Bristol City | A | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
Peterboro
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 4 |
| Last 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| At Away | 1 | 0 | 9 | 10 | 3 | 10 | 7 | 3 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Nov | Barnsley | H | 0 | 0 | D | U | Ng |
| 24 Nov | Blackburn | A | 0 | 4 | L | O | Ng |
| 20 Nov | Stoke | A | 0 | 2 | L | U | Ng |
| 06 Nov | Fulham | H | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
| 02 Nov | Huddersfield | H | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 30 Oct | Swansea | A | 0 | 3 | L | O | Ng |
| 23 Oct | QPR | H | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 20 Oct | Hull | A | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
Desicive Betting factors
| Factors | Nott'm Forest | Peterboro |
|---|---|---|
| Form Score | 0.103 | -0.652 |
| Home/Away form | -0.585 | -0.57 |
| Off ability | -0.084 | -1 |
| Def ability | 0.278 | -0.607 |
Optimal equations estimations
The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:| Team | No-G | 1 gl | 2 gls | 3+ gls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nott'm Forest | 15% | 31% | 33% | 21% |
| Peterboro | 35% | 42% | 16% | 7% |
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Nott'm Forest and the red line for guest team, Peterboro.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Nott'm Forest to score 1.6 goals and Peterboro to score 0.79 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and the home team Nott'm Forest to win by 0.81 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Nott'm Forest to score 1.59 goals and Peterboro to score 0.95 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and the home team Nott'm Forest to win by 0.64 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
| Goals | Odds | Goals | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.87 | 0-1 | 4.42 |
| 1 | 5.78 | 2-3 | 1.85 |
| 2 | 3.69 | 4+ | 4.31 |
| 3 | 3.69 | Ov 1.5 | 1.29 |
| 4 | 6.17 | Un 1.5 | 4.42 |
| 5 | 17.86 | Ov 2.5 | 1.99 |
| 6+ | 71.43 | Un 2.5 | 2.01 |
| Gg | 1.81 | Ov 3.5 | 4.31 |
| NoG | 2.23 | Un 3.5 | 1.3 |
| If game ends with | -1- | -X- | -2- |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 goals | 2.07 | 4.26 | 3.53 |
| 2-3 goals | 1.67 | 4.14 | 6.3 |
| 4+ goals | 1.93 | 3.46 | 5.16 |
| Ov 1.5 | 1.74 | 3.91 | 5.91 |
| Un 1.5 | 2.07 | 4.26 | 3.53 |
| Ov 2.5 | 1.52 | 7.51 | 4.75 |
| Un 2.5 | 2.22 | 2.7 | 5.58 |
| Ov 3.5 | 1.93 | 3.46 | 5.16 |
| Un 3.5 | 1.77 | 4.17 | 5.12 |
| Goal-Goal | 2.14 | 2.78 | 5.8 |
| No Goal | 1.52 | 8.47 | 4.49 |
| G-G+Ov 2.5 | 1.63 | 6.27 | 4.42 |
| NG+Un 2.5 | 1.63 | 8.47 | 4.11 |
Go to Top
Cardiff vs Sheffield United at 04 Dec 2021
In this article I will analyze the game between Cardiff and Sheffield United for Championship (England).| Odds | Home | Draw | Away | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | 3.21 | 3.36 | 2.27 | 1.95 | 1.89 |
| Ours | 2.74 | 3.61 | 2.79 | 2.22 | 1.82 |
| Value % | 5.34 | -2.06 | -8.21 | -6.24 | 2.04 |
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Under (5.34 %, 2.04 %) so let's further analyze the game.
Basic Data and latest results
Cardiff
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 56 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 |
| Last 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 67 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| At Home | 2 | 1 | 7 | 23 | 4 | 10 | 4 | 6 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Nov | Luton | A | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 24 Nov | Hull | H | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
| 20 Nov | Preston | A | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 06 Nov | Huddersfield | H | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 03 Nov | QPR | H | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
| 30 Oct | Stoke | A | 3 | 3 | D | O | Gg |
| 23 Oct | Middlesbrough | H | 0 | 2 | L | U | Ng |
| 20 Oct | Fulham | A | 0 | 2 | L | U | Ng |
Sheffield United
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 44 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| Last 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 78 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| At Away | 3 | 3 | 4 | 40 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 5 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Nov | Bristol City | H | 2 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 23 Nov | Reading | A | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 20 Nov | Coventry | H | 0 | 0 | D | U | Ng |
| 06 Nov | Blackburn | A | 1 | 3 | L | O | Gg |
| 02 Nov | Nott'm Forest | A | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 30 Oct | Blackpool | H | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
| 24 Oct | Barnsley | A | 3 | 2 | W | O | Gg |
| 19 Oct | Millwall | H | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
Desicive Betting factors
| Factors | Cardiff | Sheffield United |
|---|---|---|
| Form Score | 0.143 | 0.089 |
| Home/Away form | -0.834 | -0.052 |
| Off ability | 0.053 | 0.278 |
| Def ability | -1 | 0.111 |
Optimal equations estimations
The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:| Team | No-G | 1 gl | 2 gls | 3+ gls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff | 28% | 40% | 17% | 15% |
| Sheffield United | 30% | 33% | 23% | 13% |
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Cardiff and the red line for guest team, Sheffield United.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Cardiff to score 1.1 goals and Sheffield United to score 1.41 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and the guest team Sheffield United to win by 0.31 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Cardiff to score 1.2 goals and Sheffield United to score 1.18 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.02 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
| Goals | Odds | Goals | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.76 | 0-1 | 3.34 |
| 1 | 4.67 | 2-3 | 2.07 |
| 2 | 3.98 | 4+ | 4.59 |
| 3 | 4.33 | Ov 1.5 | 1.43 |
| 4 | 7.04 | Un 1.5 | 3.34 |
| 5 | 17.54 | Ov 2.5 | 2.23 |
| 6+ | 52.63 | Un 2.5 | 1.82 |
| Gg | 2 | Ov 3.5 | 4.59 |
| NoG | 2.01 | Un 3.5 | 1.28 |
| If game ends with | -1- | -X- | -2- |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 goals | 2.47 | 3.52 | 3.22 |
| 2-3 goals | 3.07 | 3.62 | 2.51 |
| 4+ goals | 2.53 | 3.63 | 3.03 |
| Ov 1.5 | 2.88 | 3.63 | 2.65 |
| Un 1.5 | 2.47 | 3.52 | 3.22 |
| Ov 2.5 | 2.36 | 7.48 | 2.26 |
| Un 2.5 | 3.16 | 2.52 | 3.48 |
| Ov 3.5 | 2.53 | 3.63 | 3.03 |
| Un 3.5 | 2.81 | 3.58 | 2.74 |
| Goal-Goal | 3.48 | 2.6 | 3.05 |
| No Goal | 2.26 | 5.86 | 2.58 |
| G-G+Ov 2.5 | 2.56 | 6.13 | 2.24 |
| NG+Un 2.5 | 2.4 | 5.86 | 2.64 |
Go to Top
Blackburn vs Preston at 04 Dec 2021
In this article I will analyze the game between Blackburn and Preston for Championship (England).| Odds | Home | Draw | Away | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | 2.24 | 3.39 | 3.23 | 2.01 | 1.83 |
| Ours | 2.06 | 3.79 | 3.98 | 1.96 | 2.04 |
| Value % | 3.9 | -3.11 | -5.83 | 1.27 | -5.63 |
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Over (3.9 %, 1.27 %) so let's further analyze the game.
Basic Data and latest results
Blackburn
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 72 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| Last 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 78 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| At Home | 6 | 2 | 2 | 67 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 2 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Nov | Stoke | A | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 24 Nov | Peterboro | H | 4 | 0 | W | O | Ng |
| 20 Nov | Bristol City | A | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 06 Nov | Sheffield United | H | 3 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 03 Nov | Fulham | H | 0 | 7 | L | O | Ng |
| 30 Oct | Derby | A | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 23 Oct | Reading | H | 2 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 19 Oct | QPR | A | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
Preston
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 56 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 |
| Last 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 44 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| At Away | 2 | 3 | 5 | 30 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 4 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Nov | Fulham | H | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 23 Nov | Middlesbrough | A | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 20 Nov | Cardiff | H | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 06 Nov | Nott'm Forest | A | 0 | 3 | L | O | Ng |
| 03 Nov | Bournemouth | A | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 30 Oct | Luton | H | 2 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 23 Oct | Blackpool | A | 0 | 2 | L | U | Ng |
| 20 Oct | Coventry | H | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
Desicive Betting factors
| Factors | Blackburn | Preston |
|---|---|---|
| Form Score | 0.5 | 0.133 |
| Home/Away form | 0.062 | -0.244 |
| Off ability | 0.579 | 0.626 |
| Def ability | -0.104 | -0.726 |
Optimal equations estimations
The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:| Team | No-G | 1 gl | 2 gls | 3+ gls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blackburn | 18% | 31% | 34% | 17% |
| Preston | 32% | 37% | 23% | 8% |
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Blackburn and the red line for guest team, Preston.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Blackburn to score 1.38 goals and Preston to score 1.06 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and the home team Blackburn to win by 0.32 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Blackburn to score 1.49 goals and Preston to score 1.08 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.57 goals in the game and the home team Blackburn to win by 0.41 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
| Goals | Odds | Goals | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.95 | 0-1 | 4.44 |
| 1 | 6.02 | 2-3 | 1.89 |
| 2 | 3.79 | 4+ | 4.07 |
| 3 | 3.77 | Ov 1.5 | 1.29 |
| 4 | 6.06 | Un 1.5 | 4.44 |
| 5 | 14.93 | Ov 2.5 | 1.96 |
| 6+ | 71.43 | Un 2.5 | 2.04 |
| Gg | 1.8 | Ov 3.5 | 4.07 |
| NoG | 2.25 | Un 3.5 | 1.33 |
| If game ends with | -1- | -X- | -2- |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 goals | 2.3 | 3.81 | 3.31 |
| 2-3 goals | 1.84 | 4.64 | 4.13 |
| 4+ goals | 2.46 | 2.7 | 4.47 |
| Ov 1.5 | 2 | 3.78 | 4.23 |
| Un 1.5 | 2.3 | 3.81 | 3.31 |
| Ov 2.5 | 1.83 | 5.62 | 3.62 |
| Un 2.5 | 2.37 | 2.83 | 4.45 |
| Ov 3.5 | 2.46 | 2.7 | 4.47 |
| Un 3.5 | 1.96 | 4.36 | 3.85 |
| Goal-Goal | 2.47 | 2.71 | 4.44 |
| No Goal | 1.71 | 7.54 | 3.53 |
| G-G+Ov 2.5 | 1.96 | 4.85 | 3.53 |
| NG+Un 2.5 | 1.82 | 7.54 | 3.41 |
Go to Top
Barnsley vs Huddersfield at 04 Dec 2021
In this article I will analyze the game between Barnsley and Huddersfield for Championship (England).| Odds | Home | Draw | Away | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | 2.73 | 3.19 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.65 |
| Ours | 2.72 | 3.62 | 2.81 | 2.25 | 1.8 |
| Value % | 0.13 | -3.72 | -1.45 | 0.97 | -5.05 |
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Over (0.13 %, 0.97 %) so let's further analyze the game.
Basic Data and latest results
Barnsley
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
| Last 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| At Home | 2 | 2 | 6 | 27 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 7 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Nov | Peterboro | A | 0 | 0 | D | U | Ng |
| 24 Nov | Swansea | H | 0 | 2 | L | U | Ng |
| 20 Nov | Fulham | A | 1 | 4 | L | O | Gg |
| 06 Nov | Hull | H | 0 | 2 | L | U | Ng |
| 03 Nov | Derby | H | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 30 Oct | Bristol City | A | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 24 Oct | Sheffield United | H | 2 | 3 | L | O | Gg |
| 20 Oct | Middlesbrough | A | 0 | 2 | L | U | Ng |
Huddersfield
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 39 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
| Last 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 33 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| At Away | 2 | 3 | 5 | 30 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 5 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Nov | Middlesbrough | H | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 24 Nov | QPR | A | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
| 20 Nov | West Brom | H | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 06 Nov | Cardiff | A | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 02 Nov | Peterboro | A | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 30 Oct | Millwall | H | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 23 Oct | Bournemouth | A | 0 | 3 | L | O | Ng |
| 20 Oct | Birmingham | H | 0 | 0 | D | U | Ng |
Desicive Betting factors
| Factors | Barnsley | Huddersfield |
|---|---|---|
| Form Score | -0.611 | -0.237 |
| Home/Away form | -0.419 | -0.104 |
| Off ability | -0.547 | 0.565 |
| Def ability | -0.539 | -0.385 |
Optimal equations estimations
The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:| Team | No-G | 1 gl | 2 gls | 3+ gls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barnsley | 32% | 34% | 17% | 17% |
| Huddersfield | 34% | 32% | 19% | 15% |
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Barnsley and the red line for guest team, Huddersfield.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Barnsley to score 1.11 goals and Huddersfield to score 1.12 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.23 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.01 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Barnsley to score 1.18 goals and Huddersfield to score 1.15 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.03 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
| Goals | Odds | Goals | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.17 | 0-1 | 3.05 |
| 1 | 4.57 | 2-3 | 2.21 |
| 2 | 4.37 | 4+ | 4.57 |
| 3 | 4.46 | Ov 1.5 | 1.49 |
| 4 | 7.3 | Un 1.5 | 3.05 |
| 5 | 17.54 | Ov 2.5 | 2.26 |
| 6+ | 40 | Un 2.5 | 1.8 |
| Gg | 2.23 | Ov 3.5 | 4.57 |
| NoG | 1.81 | Un 3.5 | 1.28 |
| If game ends with | -1- | -X- | -2- |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 goals | 2.88 | 3.01 | 3.12 |
| 2-3 goals | 2.7 | 4.12 | 2.59 |
| 4+ goals | 2.55 | 3.78 | 2.92 |
| Ov 1.5 | 2.65 | 4 | 2.69 |
| Un 1.5 | 2.88 | 3.01 | 3.12 |
| Ov 2.5 | 2.25 | 7.64 | 2.36 |
| Un 2.5 | 3.26 | 2.54 | 3.34 |
| Ov 3.5 | 2.55 | 3.78 | 2.92 |
| Un 3.5 | 2.77 | 3.57 | 2.79 |
| Goal-Goal | 3.18 | 2.67 | 3.21 |
| No Goal | 2.43 | 5.06 | 2.56 |
| G-G+Ov 2.5 | 2.4 | 5.84 | 2.42 |
| NG+Un 2.5 | 2.61 | 5.06 | 2.68 |
Go to Top
QPR vs Stoke at 05 Dec 2021
In this article I will analyze the game between QPR and Stoke for Championship (England).| Odds | Home | Draw | Away | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | 2.39 | 3.3 | 3.03 | 2.04 | 1.8 |
| Ours | 2.11 | 3.86 | 3.76 | 1.96 | 2.04 |
| Value % | 5.55 | -4.4 | -6.41 | 2 | -6.54 |
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Over (5.55 %, 2 %) so let's further analyze the game.
Basic Data and latest results
QPR
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 78 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| Last 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 100 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| At Home | 6 | 3 | 1 | 70 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 7 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Nov | Derby | A | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 24 Nov | Huddersfield | H | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 19 Nov | Luton | H | 2 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 06 Nov | Blackpool | A | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 03 Nov | Cardiff | A | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 29 Oct | Nott'm Forest | H | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 23 Oct | Peterboro | A | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 19 Oct | Blackburn | H | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
Stoke
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 56 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| Last 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| At Away | 3 | 2 | 5 | 37 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 5 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Nov | Blackburn | H | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
| 24 Nov | Bristol City | A | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
| 20 Nov | Peterboro | H | 2 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 06 Nov | Luton | A | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 03 Nov | Blackpool | A | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 30 Oct | Cardiff | H | 3 | 3 | D | O | Gg |
| 23 Oct | Millwall | A | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 19 Oct | Bournemouth | H | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
Desicive Betting factors
| Factors | QPR | Stoke |
|---|---|---|
| Form Score | 0.683 | 0.096 |
| Home/Away form | 0.228 | -0.185 |
| Off ability | 1 | 0.104 |
| Def ability | 0.191 | -0.037 |
Optimal equations estimations
The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:| Team | No-G | 1 gl | 2 gls | 3+ gls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QPR | 22% | 29% | 29% | 20% |
| Stoke | 32% | 37% | 21% | 10% |
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, QPR and the red line for guest team, Stoke.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) QPR to score 1.31 goals and Stoke to score 1.11 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.2 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) QPR to score 1.47 goals and Stoke to score 1.08 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and the home team QPR to win by 0.39 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
| Goals | Odds | Goals | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.29 | 0-1 | 4.1 |
| 1 | 5.75 | 2-3 | 2 |
| 2 | 4.05 | 4+ | 3.94 |
| 3 | 3.94 | Ov 1.5 | 1.32 |
| 4 | 6.13 | Un 1.5 | 4.1 |
| 5 | 14.08 | Ov 2.5 | 1.97 |
| 6+ | 50 | Un 2.5 | 2.04 |
| Gg | 1.89 | Ov 3.5 | 3.94 |
| NoG | 2.13 | Un 3.5 | 1.34 |
| If game ends with | -1- | -X- | -2- |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 goals | 2.57 | 3.49 | 3.09 |
| 2-3 goals | 1.89 | 4.68 | 3.88 |
| 4+ goals | 2.21 | 3.14 | 4.38 |
| Ov 1.5 | 1.99 | 4.02 | 4.04 |
| Un 1.5 | 2.57 | 3.49 | 3.09 |
| Ov 2.5 | 1.78 | 6.27 | 3.6 |
| Un 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.77 | 3.93 |
| Ov 3.5 | 2.21 | 3.14 | 4.38 |
| Un 3.5 | 2.07 | 4.21 | 3.58 |
| Goal-Goal | 2.39 | 2.81 | 4.41 |
| No Goal | 1.85 | 6.71 | 3.22 |
| G-G+Ov 2.5 | 1.91 | 5.21 | 3.52 |
| NG+Un 2.5 | 2.03 | 6.71 | 3.07 |