Football England – League One

League One
In this article we will analyse the following games: (with blue color are the value bets as estimated by the optimal equations method).
TeamsDateHomeDrawAwayOverUnder
Accrington - Fleetwood Town04-Dec2.323.542.921.782.06
Sunderland - Oxford04-Dec2.213.563.071.792.04

Click here to view the mathematical predictions for today!


Accrington vs Fleetwood Town at 04 Dec 2021

In this article I will analyze the game between Accrington and Fleetwood Town for League One (England).
OddsHomeDrawAwayOverUnder
Book2.323.542.921.782.06
Ours2.533.453.182.341.75
Value %-3.580.74-2.8-13.448.6

According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Draw, Under (0.74 %, 8.6 %) so let's further analyze the game.


Basic Data and latest results

Accrington
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6123284442
Last 3102332221
At Home413548662
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
27 NovLincolnA10WUNg
23 NovBurtonA04LONg
20 NovSheffield WedsH23LOGg
13 NovPlymouthH14LOGg
30 OctGillinghamA00DUNg
23 OctPortsmouthH22DOGg
19 OctCharltonA32WOGg
16 OctCheltenhamA01LUNg
Fleetwood Town
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6024116660
Last 3012113330
At Away144268972
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
27 NovAFC WimbledonA22DOGg
23 NovOxfordA13LOGg
20 NovMorecambeH12LOGg
02 NovWiganH23LOGg
30 OctWycombeH33DOGg
23 OctIpswichA12LOGg
19 OctBurtonH01LUNg
16 OctCreweH30WONg

Desicive Betting factors

FactorsAccringtonFleetwood Town
Form Score-0.413-0.652
Home/Away form-0.145-0.326
Off ability0.0531
Def ability-0.191-1


Optimal equations estimations

The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:
TeamNo-G1 gl2 gls3+ gls
Accrington23%42%23%11%
Fleetwood Town32%36%24%8%

The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Accrington and the red line for guest team, Fleetwood Town.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Accrington to score 1.46 goals and Fleetwood Town to score 1.23 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.69 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.23 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Accrington to score 1.22 goals and Fleetwood Town to score 1.09 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.31 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.13 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
GoalsOddsGoalsOdds
013.330-13.42
14.612-31.92
23.554+5.35
34.17Ov 1.51.41
47.58Un 1.53.42
521.74Ov 2.52.34
6+111.11Un 2.51.74
Gg1.92Ov 3.55.35
NoG2.09Un 3.51.23
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios? The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number! Use it and get great odds for your choices!
If game ends with-1--X--2-
0-1 goals2.213.893.44
2-3 goals2.683.482.95
4+ goals2.752.833.53
Ov 1.52.73.283.08
Un 1.52.213.893.44
Ov 2.52.276.472.47
Un 2.52.772.554.04
Ov 3.52.752.833.53
Un 3.52.493.623.11
Goal-Goal3.432.423.39
No Goal1.976.392.98
G-G+Ov 2.52.455.642.42
NG+Un 2.52.056.392.99

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Sunderland vs Oxford at 04 Dec 2021

In this article I will analyze the game between Sunderland and Oxford for League One (England).
OddsHomeDrawAwayOverUnder
Book2.213.563.071.792.04
Ours2.093.773.892.121.89
Value %2.6-1.56-6.87-8.73.89

According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Under (2.6 %, 3.89 %) so let's further analyze the game.


Basic Data and latest results

Sunderland
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6213394533
Last 3210783212
At Home701887444
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
27 NovCambridgeA21WOGg
23 NovShrewsburyA11DUGg
20 NovIpswichH20WUNg
02 NovSheffield WedsA03LONg
30 OctRotherhamA15LOGg
23 OctCharltonH01LUNg
19 OctCreweA40WONg
16 OctGillinghamA21WOGg
Oxford
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6420784333
Last 3120561112
At Away223385643
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
27 NovRotherhamH00DUNg
23 NovFleetwood TownH31WOGg
13 NovIpswichA00DUNg
30 OctMorecambeH31WOGg
23 OctBurtonA31WOGg
19 OctShrewsburyH20WUNg
16 OctPlymouthH13LOGg
02 OctSheffield WedsA21WOGg

Desicive Betting factors

FactorsSunderlandOxford
Form Score-0.1510.63
Home/Away form0.685-0.044
Off ability0.1580.13
Def ability-0.5910.015


Optimal equations estimations

The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:
TeamNo-G1 gl2 gls3+ gls
Sunderland20%35%26%18%
Oxford36%35%19%10%

The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Sunderland and the red line for guest team, Oxford.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sunderland to score 1.5 goals and Oxford to score 1.18 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.68 goals in the game and the home team Sunderland to win by 0.32 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sunderland to score 1.42 goals and Oxford to score 1.02 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and the home team Sunderland to win by 0.4 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
GoalsOddsGoalsOdds
013.510-13.66
15.032-32
23.894+4.42
34.1Ov 1.51.38
46.76Un 1.53.66
516.67Ov 2.52.13
6+55.56Un 2.51.89
Gg1.97Ov 3.54.42
NoG2.03Un 3.51.29
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios? The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number! Use it and get great odds for your choices!
If game ends with-1--X--2-
0-1 goals2.153.693.79
2-3 goals1.974.044.07
4+ goals2.313.373.7
Ov 1.52.073.813.95
Un 1.52.153.693.79
Ov 2.51.837.013.22
Un 2.52.392.684.82
Ov 3.52.313.373.7
Un 3.52.033.913.97
Goal-Goal2.662.664.03
No Goal1.716.653.78
G-G+Ov 2.52.015.733.05
NG+Un 2.51.836.653.69

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