League One
In this article we will analyse the following games:
(with blue color are the value bets as estimated by the optimal equations method).
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Draw, Under (0.74 %, 8.6 %) so let's further analyze the game.
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Accrington and the red line for guest team, Fleetwood Town.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Accrington to score 1.46 goals and Fleetwood Town to score 1.23 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.69 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.23 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Accrington to score 1.22 goals and Fleetwood Town to score 1.09 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.31 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.13 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios?
The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number!
Use it and get great odds for your choices!
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Under (2.6 %, 3.89 %) so let's further analyze the game.
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Sunderland and the red line for guest team, Oxford.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sunderland to score 1.5 goals and Oxford to score 1.18 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.68 goals in the game and the home team Sunderland to win by 0.32 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sunderland to score 1.42 goals and Oxford to score 1.02 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and the home team Sunderland to win by 0.4 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios?
The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number!
Use it and get great odds for your choices!
| Teams | Date | Home | Draw | Away | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accrington - Fleetwood Town | 04-Dec | 2.32 | 3.54 | 2.92 | 1.78 | 2.06 |
| Sunderland - Oxford | 04-Dec | 2.21 | 3.56 | 3.07 | 1.79 | 2.04 |
Click here to view the mathematical predictions for today!
Accrington vs Fleetwood Town at 04 Dec 2021
In this article I will analyze the game between Accrington and Fleetwood Town for League One (England).| Odds | Home | Draw | Away | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | 2.32 | 3.54 | 2.92 | 1.78 | 2.06 |
| Ours | 2.53 | 3.45 | 3.18 | 2.34 | 1.75 |
| Value % | -3.58 | 0.74 | -2.8 | -13.44 | 8.6 |
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Draw, Under (0.74 %, 8.6 %) so let's further analyze the game.
Basic Data and latest results
Accrington
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 28 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| Last 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 33 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| At Home | 4 | 1 | 3 | 54 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 2 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Nov | Lincoln | A | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 23 Nov | Burton | A | 0 | 4 | L | O | Ng |
| 20 Nov | Sheffield Weds | H | 2 | 3 | L | O | Gg |
| 13 Nov | Plymouth | H | 1 | 4 | L | O | Gg |
| 30 Oct | Gillingham | A | 0 | 0 | D | U | Ng |
| 23 Oct | Portsmouth | H | 2 | 2 | D | O | Gg |
| 19 Oct | Charlton | A | 3 | 2 | W | O | Gg |
| 16 Oct | Cheltenham | A | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
Fleetwood Town
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 0 |
| Last 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| At Away | 1 | 4 | 4 | 26 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 2 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Nov | AFC Wimbledon | A | 2 | 2 | D | O | Gg |
| 23 Nov | Oxford | A | 1 | 3 | L | O | Gg |
| 20 Nov | Morecambe | H | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 02 Nov | Wigan | H | 2 | 3 | L | O | Gg |
| 30 Oct | Wycombe | H | 3 | 3 | D | O | Gg |
| 23 Oct | Ipswich | A | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 19 Oct | Burton | H | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
| 16 Oct | Crewe | H | 3 | 0 | W | O | Ng |
Desicive Betting factors
| Factors | Accrington | Fleetwood Town |
|---|---|---|
| Form Score | -0.413 | -0.652 |
| Home/Away form | -0.145 | -0.326 |
| Off ability | 0.053 | 1 |
| Def ability | -0.191 | -1 |
Optimal equations estimations
The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:| Team | No-G | 1 gl | 2 gls | 3+ gls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accrington | 23% | 42% | 23% | 11% |
| Fleetwood Town | 32% | 36% | 24% | 8% |
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Accrington and the red line for guest team, Fleetwood Town.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Accrington to score 1.46 goals and Fleetwood Town to score 1.23 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.69 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.23 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Accrington to score 1.22 goals and Fleetwood Town to score 1.09 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.31 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.13 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
| Goals | Odds | Goals | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.33 | 0-1 | 3.42 |
| 1 | 4.61 | 2-3 | 1.92 |
| 2 | 3.55 | 4+ | 5.35 |
| 3 | 4.17 | Ov 1.5 | 1.41 |
| 4 | 7.58 | Un 1.5 | 3.42 |
| 5 | 21.74 | Ov 2.5 | 2.34 |
| 6+ | 111.11 | Un 2.5 | 1.74 |
| Gg | 1.92 | Ov 3.5 | 5.35 |
| NoG | 2.09 | Un 3.5 | 1.23 |
| If game ends with | -1- | -X- | -2- |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 goals | 2.21 | 3.89 | 3.44 |
| 2-3 goals | 2.68 | 3.48 | 2.95 |
| 4+ goals | 2.75 | 2.83 | 3.53 |
| Ov 1.5 | 2.7 | 3.28 | 3.08 |
| Un 1.5 | 2.21 | 3.89 | 3.44 |
| Ov 2.5 | 2.27 | 6.47 | 2.47 |
| Un 2.5 | 2.77 | 2.55 | 4.04 |
| Ov 3.5 | 2.75 | 2.83 | 3.53 |
| Un 3.5 | 2.49 | 3.62 | 3.11 |
| Goal-Goal | 3.43 | 2.42 | 3.39 |
| No Goal | 1.97 | 6.39 | 2.98 |
| G-G+Ov 2.5 | 2.45 | 5.64 | 2.42 |
| NG+Un 2.5 | 2.05 | 6.39 | 2.99 |
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Sunderland vs Oxford at 04 Dec 2021
In this article I will analyze the game between Sunderland and Oxford for League One (England).| Odds | Home | Draw | Away | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | 2.21 | 3.56 | 3.07 | 1.79 | 2.04 |
| Ours | 2.09 | 3.77 | 3.89 | 2.12 | 1.89 |
| Value % | 2.6 | -1.56 | -6.87 | -8.7 | 3.89 |
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Under (2.6 %, 3.89 %) so let's further analyze the game.
Basic Data and latest results
Sunderland
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 39 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
| Last 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 78 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| At Home | 7 | 0 | 1 | 88 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Nov | Cambridge | A | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 23 Nov | Shrewsbury | A | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 20 Nov | Ipswich | H | 2 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 02 Nov | Sheffield Weds | A | 0 | 3 | L | O | Ng |
| 30 Oct | Rotherham | A | 1 | 5 | L | O | Gg |
| 23 Oct | Charlton | H | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
| 19 Oct | Crewe | A | 4 | 0 | W | O | Ng |
| 16 Oct | Gillingham | A | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
Oxford
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 78 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Last 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 56 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| At Away | 2 | 2 | 3 | 38 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 3 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Nov | Rotherham | H | 0 | 0 | D | U | Ng |
| 23 Nov | Fleetwood Town | H | 3 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 13 Nov | Ipswich | A | 0 | 0 | D | U | Ng |
| 30 Oct | Morecambe | H | 3 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 23 Oct | Burton | A | 3 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 19 Oct | Shrewsbury | H | 2 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 16 Oct | Plymouth | H | 1 | 3 | L | O | Gg |
| 02 Oct | Sheffield Weds | A | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
Desicive Betting factors
| Factors | Sunderland | Oxford |
|---|---|---|
| Form Score | -0.151 | 0.63 |
| Home/Away form | 0.685 | -0.044 |
| Off ability | 0.158 | 0.13 |
| Def ability | -0.591 | 0.015 |
Optimal equations estimations
The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:| Team | No-G | 1 gl | 2 gls | 3+ gls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland | 20% | 35% | 26% | 18% |
| Oxford | 36% | 35% | 19% | 10% |
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Sunderland and the red line for guest team, Oxford.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sunderland to score 1.5 goals and Oxford to score 1.18 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.68 goals in the game and the home team Sunderland to win by 0.32 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sunderland to score 1.42 goals and Oxford to score 1.02 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and the home team Sunderland to win by 0.4 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
| Goals | Odds | Goals | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.51 | 0-1 | 3.66 |
| 1 | 5.03 | 2-3 | 2 |
| 2 | 3.89 | 4+ | 4.42 |
| 3 | 4.1 | Ov 1.5 | 1.38 |
| 4 | 6.76 | Un 1.5 | 3.66 |
| 5 | 16.67 | Ov 2.5 | 2.13 |
| 6+ | 55.56 | Un 2.5 | 1.89 |
| Gg | 1.97 | Ov 3.5 | 4.42 |
| NoG | 2.03 | Un 3.5 | 1.29 |
| If game ends with | -1- | -X- | -2- |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 goals | 2.15 | 3.69 | 3.79 |
| 2-3 goals | 1.97 | 4.04 | 4.07 |
| 4+ goals | 2.31 | 3.37 | 3.7 |
| Ov 1.5 | 2.07 | 3.81 | 3.95 |
| Un 1.5 | 2.15 | 3.69 | 3.79 |
| Ov 2.5 | 1.83 | 7.01 | 3.22 |
| Un 2.5 | 2.39 | 2.68 | 4.82 |
| Ov 3.5 | 2.31 | 3.37 | 3.7 |
| Un 3.5 | 2.03 | 3.91 | 3.97 |
| Goal-Goal | 2.66 | 2.66 | 4.03 |
| No Goal | 1.71 | 6.65 | 3.78 |
| G-G+Ov 2.5 | 2.01 | 5.73 | 3.05 |
| NG+Un 2.5 | 1.83 | 6.65 | 3.69 |