Football England – Premier League

Premier League
In this article we will analyse the following games: (with blue color are the value bets as estimated by the optimal equations method).
TeamsDateHomeDrawAwayOverUnder
Newcastle - Burnley04-Dec2.333.363.21.951.9
Wolves - Liverpool04-Dec7.114.681.451.682.25
West Ham - Chelsea04-Dec4.683.621.832.091.8
Watford - Man City04-Dec14.887.141.21.452.76
Southampton - Brighton04-Dec2.463.223.12.161.73
Man United - Crystal Palace05-Dec1.564.26.161.82.07
Leeds - Brentford05-Dec1.953.623.981.931.92
Aston Villa - Leicester05-Dec2.373.53.051.881.98
Tottenham - Norwich05-Dec1.414.758.21.852
Everton - Arsenal06-Dec3.423.552.172.051.82

Click here to view the mathematical predictions for today!


Newcastle vs Burnley at 04 Dec 2021

In this article I will analyze the game between Newcastle and Burnley for Premier League (England).
OddsHomeDrawAwayOverUnder
Book2.333.363.21.951.9
Ours2.393.733.181.992.01
Value %-1.08-2.950.2-1.03-2.88

According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Away (0.2 %) so let's further analyze the game.


Basic Data and latest results

Newcastle
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6042224624
Last 3021222312
At Home043196752
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
30 NovNorwichH11DUGg
27 NovArsenalA02LUNg
20 NovBrentfordH33DOGg
06 NovBrightonA11DUGg
30 OctChelseaH03LONg
23 OctCrystal PalaceA11DUGg
17 OctTottenhamH23LOGg
02 OctWolvesA12LOGg
Burnley
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6141394533
Last 3030332212
At Away043194634
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
01 DecWolvesA00DUNg
20 NovCrystal PalaceH33DOGg
06 NovChelseaA11DUGg
30 OctBrentfordH31WOGg
23 OctSouthamptonA22DOGg
16 OctMan CityA02LUNg
02 OctNorwichH00DUNg
25 SepLeicesterA22DOGg

Playing style

NewcastleShGxGShAGAxGA
Open play106109.221792422.8
From corner3231.452411.37
Set piece1823.49911.05
Direct Freekick300.19800.45
Penalty110.76543.81
BurnleyShGxGShAGAxGA
Open play9887.861571617.93
From corner2545.74432.81
Set piece1721.73700.37
Direct Freekick500.28710.59
NewcastleShGxGShAGAxGA
Own goals111111
Out of box6522.399422.71
Penalty area87128.191111816.44
Six-yard box713.521999.32
BurnleyShGxGShAGAxGA
Own goals111000
Out of box5321.66922.24
Penalty area7667.581281313.57
Six-yard box1555.381855.89
NewcastleShGxGShAGAxGA
1-152432.752721.39
16-302111.384666.38
31-453043.113104.02
46-602432.874986.22
61-752931.763587.77
76+3223.243763.69
BurnleyShGxGShAGAxGA
1-151642.912924.03
16-302323.032722.59
31-452733.863753.64
46-602842.464223.44
61-751800.664354.65
76+3312.653743.35
The next graph represents the shots attempted and recieved for the Newcastle and Burnley within a specific timeframe of the game. The black line is the average and you can interpret it as a Heat Indicator.

Desicive Betting factors

FactorsNewcastleBurnley
Form Score-0.4290.022
Home/Away form-0.635-0.356
Off ability0.0530.217
Def ability-1-0.607


Optimal equations estimations

The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:
TeamNo-G1 gl2 gls3+ gls
Newcastle25%38%10%27%
Burnley31%35%20%14%

The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Newcastle and the red line for guest team, Burnley.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Newcastle to score 1.4 goals and Burnley to score 1.12 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.28 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Newcastle to score 1.39 goals and Burnley to score 1.17 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.22 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
GoalsOddsGoalsOdds
012.990-13.55
14.882-32.25
24.674+3.65
34.35Ov 1.51.39
45.95Un 1.53.55
514.49Ov 2.51.98
6+27.03Un 2.52.02
Gg1.93Ov 3.53.65
NoG2.08Un 3.51.38
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios? The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number! Use it and get great odds for your choices!
If game ends with-1--X--2-
0-1 goals2.393.663.24
2-3 goals2.963.342.76
4+ goals1.834.724.15
Ov 1.52.393.763.16
Un 1.52.393.663.24
Ov 2.51.878.692.85
Un 2.53.332.363.62
Ov 3.51.834.724.15
Un 3.52.713.462.93
Goal-Goal2.812.723.63
No Goal2.066.252.81
G-G+Ov 2.52.096.662.7
NG+Un 2.52.446.252.65

Go to Top


Wolves vs Liverpool at 04 Dec 2021

In this article I will analyze the game between Wolves and Liverpool for Premier League (England).
OddsHomeDrawAwayOverUnder
Book7.114.681.451.682.25
Ours6.254.521.621.872.15
Value %1.940.76-7.24-6.052.07

According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Draw, Under (1.94 %, 0.76 %, 2.07 %) so let's further analyze the game.


Basic Data and latest results

Wolves
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6231503315
Last 3120561003
At Home313483525
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
01 DecBurnleyH00DUNg
27 NovNorwichA00DUNg
20 NovWest HamH10WUNg
06 NovCrystal PalaceA02LUNg
01 NovEvertonH21WOGg
23 OctLeedsA11DUGg
16 OctAston VillaA32WOGg
02 OctNewcastleH21WOGg
Liverpool
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6411726360
Last 33001003130
At Away511767370
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
01 DecEvertonA41WOGg
27 NovSouthamptonH40WONg
20 NovArsenalH40WONg
07 NovWest HamA23LOGg
30 OctBrightonH22DOGg
24 OctMan UnitedA50WONg
16 OctWatfordA50WONg
03 OctMan CityH22DOGg

Playing style

WolvesShGxGShAGAxGA
Open play122713.16121912.49
From corner2844.771600.71
Direct Freekick610.48400.17
Set piece600.661201.32
Penalty000332.28
LiverpoolShGxGShAGAxGA
Open play1983431.8699810.62
From corner4763.241832.04
Set piece1611.371012.37
Direct Freekick710.48300.26
Penalty110.76000
WolvesShGxGShAGAxGA
Own goals111000
Out of box6222.055521.44
Penalty area87611.491911.5
Six-yard box1234.611014.04
LiverpoolShGxGShAGAxGA
Own goals000111
Out of box8553.33431.36
Penalty area1562722.337947.3
Six-yard box281112.081645.63
WolvesShGxGShAGAxGA
1-152211.742612.16
16-302621.761712.15
31-452513.582232.79
46-603032.52622.87
61-752814.62822.67
76+3144.883734.33
LiverpoolShGxGShAGAxGA
1-153665.771412.43
16-303764.92423.15
31-455377.71921.37
46-6057107.462101.59
61-754275.762253.27
76+4476.113023.49
The next graph represents the shots attempted and recieved for the Wolves and Liverpool within a specific timeframe of the game. The black line is the average and you can interpret it as a Heat Indicator.

Desicive Betting factors

FactorsWolvesLiverpool
Form Score0.1030.533
Home/Away form-0.0540.6
Off ability-0.5471
Def ability0.304-0.015


Optimal equations estimations

The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:
TeamNo-G1 gl2 gls3+ gls
Wolves44%28%28%1%
Liverpool13%30%28%29%

The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Wolves and the red line for guest team, Liverpool.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Wolves to score 0.68 goals and Liverpool to score 2.17 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.85 goals in the game and the guest team Liverpool to win by 1.49 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Wolves to score 0.86 goals and Liverpool to score 1.73 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.59 goals in the game and the guest team Liverpool to win by 0.87 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
GoalsOddsGoalsOdds
017.860-14.5
16.022-31.88
24.124+4.07
33.46Ov 1.51.29
46.17Un 1.54.5
512.2Ov 2.51.87
6+500Un 2.52.15
Gg2.03Ov 3.54.07
NoG1.97Un 3.51.33
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios? The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number! Use it and get great odds for your choices!
If game ends with-1--X--2-
0-1 goals6.173.961.71
2-3 goals4.46.411.62
4+ goals61.531.54
Ov 1.56.224.721.59
Un 1.56.173.961.71
Ov 2.56.016.521.47
Un 2.56.463.351.83
Ov 3.561.531.54
Un 3.54.85.421.65
Goal-Goal5.592.982.06
No Goal6.969.071.34
G-G+Ov 2.54.654.991.71
NG+Un 2.55.319.071.5

Go to Top


West Ham vs Chelsea at 04 Dec 2021

In this article I will analyze the game between West Ham and Chelsea for Premier League (England).
OddsHomeDrawAwayOverUnder
Book4.683.621.832.091.8
Ours3.974.131.981.852.17
Value %3.82-3.41-4.146.21-9.47

According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Over (3.82 %, 6.21 %) so let's further analyze the game.


Basic Data and latest results

West Ham
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6312565533
Last 3012112312
At Home322527652
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
01 DecBrightonH11DUGg
28 NovMan CityA12LOGg
20 NovWolvesA01LUNg
07 NovLiverpoolH32WOGg
31 OctAston VillaA41WOGg
24 OctTottenhamH10WUNg
17 OctEvertonA10WUNg
03 OctBrentfordH12LOGg
Chelsea
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6420786342
Last 3210783221
At Away610907243
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
01 DecWatfordA21WOGg
28 NovMan UnitedH11DUGg
20 NovLeicesterA30WONg
06 NovBurnleyH11DUGg
30 OctNewcastleA30WONg
23 OctNorwichH70WONg
16 OctBrentfordA10WUNg
02 OctSouthamptonH31WOGg

Playing style

West HamShGxGShAGAxGA
Open play1471817.391271514.84
From corner3664.353502.02
Direct Freekick1000.6310.31
Set piece710.951211.4
Penalty201.52000
ChelseaShGxGShAGAxGA
Open play1622423.079239.2
From corner3752.752511.5
Direct Freekick1010.61300.2
Set piece700.48900.5
Penalty332.28221.52
West HamShGxGShAGAxGA
Own goals222000
Out of box7742.975731.98
Penalty area1001111.75107911.17
Six-yard box2388.081355.42
ChelseaShGxGShAGAxGA
Own goals111000
Out of box7753.095501.56
Penalty area1262218.076759.17
Six-yard box1557.03912.19
West HamShGxGShAGAxGA
1-153132.961711.44
16-303132.53022.53
31-452622.24755.95
46-603623.623323.35
61-754587.932122.04
76+3375.582953.27
ChelseaShGxGShAGAxGA
1-153254.611400.78
16-303753.291601.16
31-453054.511912.05
46-603653.133044.49
61-753254.921901.31
76+5288.743313.12
The next graph represents the shots attempted and recieved for the West Ham and Chelsea within a specific timeframe of the game. The black line is the average and you can interpret it as a Heat Indicator.

Desicive Betting factors

FactorsWest HamChelsea
Form Score0.0240.652
Home/Away form0.0120.948
Off ability0.5051
Def ability-0.678-0.089


Optimal equations estimations

The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:
TeamNo-G1 gl2 gls3+ gls
West Ham38%26%24%12%
Chelsea19%30%26%25%

The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, West Ham and the red line for guest team, Chelsea.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) West Ham to score 0.81 goals and Chelsea to score 1.58 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and the guest team Chelsea to win by 0.77 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) West Ham to score 1.08 goals and Chelsea to score 1.58 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.66 goals in the game and the guest team Chelsea to win by 0.5 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
GoalsOddsGoalsOdds
013.890-14.22
16.062-32.07
24.464+3.56
33.88Ov 1.51.31
46.17Un 1.54.22
511.11Ov 2.51.86
6+34.48Un 2.52.17
Gg2Ov 3.53.56
NoG2Un 3.51.39
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios? The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number! Use it and get great odds for your choices!
If game ends with-1--X--2-
0-1 goals4.943.292.03
2-3 goals3.476.181.82
4+ goals4.323.052.27
Ov 1.53.744.491.96
Un 1.54.943.292.03
Ov 2.53.395.861.87
Un 2.54.963.072.11
Ov 3.54.323.052.27
Un 3.53.844.791.88
Goal-Goal3.622.942.6
No Goal4.396.941.59
G-G+Ov 2.53.064.592.2
NG+Un 2.54.126.941.76

Go to Top


Watford vs Man City at 04 Dec 2021

In this article I will analyze the game between Watford and Man City for Premier League (England).
OddsHomeDrawAwayOverUnder
Book14.887.141.21.452.76
Ours5.184.351.731.882.14
Value %12.588.98-25.53-15.7710.5

According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Draw, Under (12.58 %, 8.98 %, 10.5 %) so let's further analyze the game.


Basic Data and latest results

Watford
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6204334642
Last 3102333330
At Home214334743
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
01 DecChelseaH12LOGg
28 NovLeicesterA24LOGg
20 NovMan UnitedH41WOGg
07 NovArsenalA01LUNg
30 OctSouthamptonH01LUNg
23 OctEvertonA52WOGg
16 OctLiverpoolH05LONg
02 OctLeedsA01LUNg
Man City
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6501835442
Last 33001003230
At Away511766434
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
01 DecAston VillaA21WOGg
28 NovWest HamH21WOGg
21 NovEvertonH30WONg
06 NovMan UnitedA20WUNg
30 OctCrystal PalaceH02LUNg
23 OctBrightonA41WOGg
16 OctBurnleyH20WUNg
03 OctLiverpoolA22DOGg

Playing style

WatfordShGxGShAGAxGA
Open play1271512.651441819.32
From corner1621.093353.58
Set piece911.441311.65
Direct Freekick800.4910.47
Penalty211.52211.52
Man CityShGxGShAGAxGA
Open play1912628.026866.5
From corner4422.87610.19
Set piece811.741101.25
Direct Freekick700.35400.22
Penalty000110.76
WatfordShGxGShAGAxGA
Own goals000111
Out of box6202.087653.3
Penalty area921612.861051213.05
Six-yard box832.171989.2
Man CityShGxGShAGAxGA
Own goals222000
Out of box7642.233021.03
Penalty area1451318.065667.4
Six-yard box271010.69400.49
WatfordShGxGShAGAxGA
1-152422.973443.52
16-302532.662142.09
31-452632.273866.58
46-602612.763443.81
61-752031.624455.56
76+4174.833035
Man CityShGxGShAGAxGA
1-153867.891211.07
16-304245.391501.56
31-454755.46500.23
46-604833.232231.71
61-753354.191111.52
76+4266.822532.84
The next graph represents the shots attempted and recieved for the Watford and Man City within a specific timeframe of the game. The black line is the average and you can interpret it as a Heat Indicator.

Desicive Betting factors

FactorsWatfordMan City
Form Score-0.4840.704
Home/Away form-0.5270.696
Off ability0.1260.652
Def ability-1-0.333


Optimal equations estimations

The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:
TeamNo-G1 gl2 gls3+ gls
Watford42%28%25%5%
Man City15%30%28%27%

The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Watford and the red line for guest team, Man City.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Watford to score 0.43 goals and Man City to score 2.85 goals. So, they expect a total of 3.28 goals in the game and the guest team Man City to win by 2.42 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Watford to score 0.94 goals and Man City to score 1.67 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.61 goals in the game and the guest team Man City to win by 0.73 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
GoalsOddsGoalsOdds
015.620-14.33
15.992-31.96
24.244+3.86
33.65Ov 1.51.3
46.17Un 1.54.33
512.05Ov 2.51.88
6+71.43Un 2.52.14
Gg2.02Ov 3.53.86
NoG1.98Un 3.51.35
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios? The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number! Use it and get great odds for your choices!
If game ends with-1--X--2-
0-1 goals5.373.611.86
2-3 goals4.216.141.67
4+ goals8.933.081.77
Ov 1.55.134.61.7
Un 1.55.373.611.86
Ov 2.54.766.351.58
Un 2.55.773.181.95
Ov 3.58.933.081.77
Un 3.54.525.041.72
Goal-Goal4.752.962.22
No Goal5.697.911.43
G-G+Ov 2.53.954.891.84
NG+Un 2.54.747.911.61

Go to Top


Southampton vs Brighton at 04 Dec 2021

In this article I will analyze the game between Southampton and Brighton for Premier League (England).
OddsHomeDrawAwayOverUnder
Book2.463.223.12.161.73
Ours2.184.033.41.892.12
Value %5.22-6.24-2.856.61-10.63

According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Over (5.22 %, 6.61 %) so let's further analyze the game.


Basic Data and latest results

Southampton
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6222445442
Last 3012112330
At Home241485425
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
01 DecLeicesterH22DOGg
27 NovLiverpoolA04LONg
20 NovNorwichA12LOGg
05 NovAston VillaH10WUNg
30 OctWatfordA10WUNg
23 OctBurnleyH22DOGg
16 OctLeedsH10WUNg
02 OctChelseaA13LOGg
Brighton
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6042224524
Last 3021221203
At Away241485525
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
01 DecWest HamA11DUGg
27 NovLeedsH00DUNg
20 NovAston VillaA02LUNg
06 NovNewcastleH11DUGg
30 OctLiverpoolA22DOGg
23 OctMan CityH14LOGg
16 OctNorwichA00DUNg
02 OctArsenalH00DUNg

Playing style

SouthamptonShGxGShAGAxGA
Open play137814.841291615.27
From corner2633.092342.69
Set piece700.371201.9
Direct Freekick500.21800.53
Penalty221.52000
BrightonShGxGShAGAxGA
Open play120811.95123911.41
From corner3011.872533.48
Direct Freekick600.52600.31
Set piece610.211110.48
Penalty332.28221.52
SouthamptonShGxGShAGAxGA
Own goals111000
Out of box7012.476012.02
Penalty area8989.39931210.89
Six-yard box1737.181977.49
BrightonShGxGShAGAxGA
Out of box5922.056912.23
Penalty area1011012.42871010.65
Six-yard box512.361144.31
SouthamptonShGxGShAGAxGA
1-153133.082544.36
16-303234.171711.87
31-453324.172622.3
46-602933.343973.57
61-752212.962612.7
76+3012.333955.6
BrightonShGxGShAGAxGA
1-152212.022743.73
16-302312.512732.5
31-452633.461711.71
46-603612.572933.36
61-752422.371911.38
76+3453.914834.52
The next graph represents the shots attempted and recieved for the Southampton and Brighton within a specific timeframe of the game. The black line is the average and you can interpret it as a Heat Indicator.

Desicive Betting factors

FactorsSouthamptonBrighton
Form Score-0.127-0.311
Home/Away form0.0370.111
Off ability0.4740.157
Def ability-0.278-0.63


Optimal equations estimations

The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:
TeamNo-G1 gl2 gls3+ gls
Southampton25%18%44%13%
Brighton31%35%20%14%

The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Southampton and the red line for guest team, Brighton.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Southampton to score 1.26 goals and Brighton to score 1.07 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.19 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Southampton to score 1.45 goals and Brighton to score 1.17 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.62 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.28 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
GoalsOddsGoalsOdds
012.990-14.55
16.992-31.94
23.984+3.8
33.77Ov 1.51.28
46.29Un 1.54.55
511.49Ov 2.51.89
6+58.82Un 2.52.12
Gg1.93Ov 3.53.8
NoG2.08Un 3.51.36
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios? The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number! Use it and get great odds for your choices!
If game ends with-1--X--2-
0-1 goals3.932.862.53
2-3 goals1.558.194.3
4+ goals3.762.463.06
Ov 1.51.934.583.78
Un 1.53.932.862.53
Ov 2.51.994.933.38
Un 2.52.433.363.44
Ov 3.53.762.463.06
Un 3.51.895.263.56
Goal-Goal2.293.054.25
No Goal2.066.252.81
G-G+Ov 2.52.014.253.73
NG+Un 2.52.16.252.98

Go to Top


Man United vs Crystal Palace at 05 Dec 2021

In this article I will analyze the game between Man United and Crystal Palace for Premier League (England).
OddsHomeDrawAwayOverUnder
Book1.564.26.161.82.07
Ours2.43.733.162.011.99
Value %-22.44315.41-5.81.94

According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Draw, Away, Under (3 %, 15.41 %, 1.94 %) so let's further analyze the game.


Basic Data and latest results

Man United
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6213394542
Last 3111443321
At Home313484743
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
02 DecArsenalH32WOGg
28 NovChelseaA11DUGg
20 NovWatfordA14LOGg
06 NovMan CityH02LUNg
30 OctTottenhamA30WONg
24 OctLiverpoolH05LONg
16 OctLeicesterA24LOGg
02 OctEvertonH11DUGg
Crystal Palace
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6222445424
Last 3012112321
At Away133294652
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
30 NovLeedsA01LUNg
27 NovAston VillaH12LOGg
20 NovBurnleyA33DOGg
06 NovWolvesH20WUNg
30 OctMan CityA20WUNg
23 OctNewcastleH11DUGg
18 OctArsenalA22DOGg
03 OctLeicesterH22DOGg

Playing style

Man UnitedShGxGShAGAxGA
Open play1492315.391431918.54
From corner2501.313934.03
Set piece1103.081311.62
Direct Freekick400.22800.39
Penalty211.52312.28
Crystal PalaceShGxGShAGAxGA
Open play1121514.229898.4
From corner2711.23483.6
Set piece1011.672311.66
Direct Freekick500.41110.72
Penalty221.52110.76
Man UnitedShGxGShAGAxGA
Own goals000222
Out of box6621.627832.41
Penalty area1161915.171101415.67
Six-yard box934.731656.79
Crystal PalaceShGxGShAGAxGA
Out of box5101.836562.45
Penalty area931612.159098.95
Six-yard box1235.031253.73
Man UnitedShGxGShAGAxGA
1-153203.833645.96
16-303622.673944.78
31-453543.483233.96
46-603284.822452.58
61-752943.112823.54
76+2763.594766.06
Crystal PalaceShGxGShAGAxGA
1-151421.362622.12
16-301901.823041.99
31-452122.633044.31
46-603764.383322.23
61-753144.072121.38
76+3454.752763.1
The next graph represents the shots attempted and recieved for the Man United and Crystal Palace within a specific timeframe of the game. The black line is the average and you can interpret it as a Heat Indicator.

Desicive Betting factors

FactorsMan UnitedCrystal Palace
Form Score-0.206-0.074
Home/Away form-0.212-0.237
Off ability0.1580.539
Def ability-0.652-0.385


Optimal equations estimations

The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:
TeamNo-G1 gl2 gls3+ gls
Man United25%37%14%24%
Crystal Palace31%35%20%14%

The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Man United and the red line for guest team, Crystal Palace.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Man United to score 1.96 goals and Crystal Palace to score 0.73 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.68 goals in the game and the home team Man United to win by 1.23 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Man United to score 1.38 goals and Crystal Palace to score 1.17 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.21 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
GoalsOddsGoalsOdds
012.990-13.6
14.982-32.19
24.484+3.77
34.27Ov 1.51.39
46.13Un 1.53.6
514.49Ov 2.52
6+30.3Un 2.52
Gg1.93Ov 3.53.77
NoG2.08Un 3.51.36
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios? The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number! Use it and get great odds for your choices!
If game ends with-1--X--2-
0-1 goals2.443.613.2
2-3 goals2.73.542.87
4+ goals1.994.273.79
Ov 1.52.393.783.15
Un 1.52.443.613.2
Ov 2.51.938.052.79
Un 2.53.172.433.66
Ov 3.51.994.273.79
Un 3.52.63.572.99
Goal-Goal2.842.723.58
No Goal2.066.252.81
G-G+Ov 2.52.136.292.69
NG+Un 2.52.356.252.72

Go to Top


Leeds vs Brentford at 05 Dec 2021

In this article I will analyze the game between Leeds and Brentford for Premier League (England).
OddsHomeDrawAwayOverUnder
Book1.953.623.981.931.92
Ours2.463.773.052.011.99
Value %-10.63-1.17.66-2.06-1.83

According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Away (7.66 %) so let's further analyze the game.


Basic Data and latest results

Leeds
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6231505424
Last 3111442112
At Home232436534
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
30 NovCrystal PalaceH10WUNg
27 NovBrightonA00DUNg
21 NovTottenhamA12LOGg
07 NovLeicesterH11DUGg
31 OctNorwichA21WOGg
23 OctWolvesH11DUGg
16 OctSouthamptonA01LUNg
02 OctWatfordH10WUNg
Brentford
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6114225542
Last 3111442212
At Away232435534
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
02 DecTottenhamA02LUNg
28 NovEvertonH10WUNg
20 NovNewcastleA33DOGg
06 NovNorwichH12LOGg
30 OctBurnleyA13LOGg
24 OctLeicesterH12LOGg
16 OctChelseaH01LUNg
03 OctWest HamA21WOGg

Playing style

LeedsShGxGShAGAxGA
Open play143812.121601517.75
From corner3623.213233.16
Set piece1600.68710.88
Direct Freekick410.191000.82
Penalty221.52110.76
BrentfordShGxGShAGAxGA
Open play1121115.011281413.27
From corner2923.412632.74
Set piece1121.01911.42
Direct Freekick400.38900.44
Penalty221.52110.76
LeedsShGxGShAGAxGA
Own goals000111
Out of box9252.648503.12
Penalty area96510.91111514.4
Six-yard box1334.181344.86
BrentfordShGxGShAGAxGA
Own goals111111
Out of box4301.556852.09
Penalty area9579.6684119.65
Six-yard box1999.132025.89
LeedsShGxGShAGAxGA
1-153311.962412.32
16-303031.964345.17
31-452422.282712.5
46-604334.354595.36
61-752412.043634.7
76+4735.133523.33
BrentfordShGxGShAGAxGA
1-152623.462262.67
16-303265.992123.3
31-451711.783944.71
46-602633.643012.94
61-751922.742943.16
76+3833.733221.85
The next graph represents the shots attempted and recieved for the Leeds and Brentford within a specific timeframe of the game. The black line is the average and you can interpret it as a Heat Indicator.

Desicive Betting factors

FactorsLeedsBrentford
Form Score0.111-0.459
Home/Away form-0.087-0.015
Off ability0.4740.539
Def ability-0.104-0.63


Optimal equations estimations

The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:
TeamNo-G1 gl2 gls3+ gls
Leeds26%33%23%19%
Brentford30%35%21%14%

The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Leeds and the red line for guest team, Brentford.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Leeds to score 1.59 goals and Brentford to score 0.95 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and the home team Leeds to win by 0.64 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Leeds to score 1.35 goals and Brentford to score 1.19 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.16 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
GoalsOddsGoalsOdds
012.820-13.75
15.292-32.1
24.264+3.88
34.15Ov 1.51.36
46.29Un 1.53.75
513.89Ov 2.52
6+37.04Un 2.51.99
Gg1.93Ov 3.53.88
NoG2.07Un 3.51.35
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios? The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number! Use it and get great odds for your choices!
If game ends with-1--X--2-
0-1 goals2.73.422.97
2-3 goals2.324.213.01
4+ goals2.483.493.22
Ov 1.52.383.933.08
Un 1.52.73.422.97
Ov 2.52.086.742.7
Un 2.52.992.633.51
Ov 3.52.483.493.22
Un 3.52.443.893
Goal-Goal2.832.773.5
No Goal2.156.192.68
G-G+Ov 2.52.215.472.74
NG+Un 2.52.326.192.72

Go to Top


Aston Villa vs Leicester at 05 Dec 2021

In this article I will analyze the game between Aston Villa and Leicester for Premier League (England).
OddsHomeDrawAwayOverUnder
Book2.373.53.051.881.98
Ours2.083.742.011.99
Value %5.88-1.54-7.79-3.44-0.25

According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home (5.88 %) so let's further analyze the game.


Basic Data and latest results

Aston Villa
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6204335542
Last 3201673221
At Home313487443
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
01 DecMan CityH12LOGg
27 NovCrystal PalaceA21WOGg
20 NovBrightonH20WUNg
05 NovSouthamptonA01LUNg
31 OctWest HamH14LOGg
22 OctArsenalA13LOGg
16 OctWolvesH23LOGg
03 OctTottenhamA12LOGg
Leicester
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6222444642
Last 3111442330
At Away232437761
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
01 DecSouthamptonA22DOGg
28 NovWatfordH42WOGg
20 NovChelseaH03LONg
07 NovLeedsA11DUGg
30 OctArsenalH02LUNg
24 OctBrentfordA21WOGg
16 OctMan UnitedH42WOGg
03 OctCrystal PalaceA22DOGg

Playing style

Aston VillaShGxGShAGAxGA
Open play105129.281341614.03
From corner2252.523543.89
Set piece2100.861022.33
Direct Freekick700.361110.59
Penalty221.52201.52
LeicesterShGxGShAGAxGA
Open play1311614.581601414.51
From corner2532.343765.97
Set piece932.041410.87
Direct Freekick300.2810.6
Penalty000332.28
Aston VillaShGxGShAGAxGA
Own goals111111
Out of box6251.827252.81
Penalty area841191031213.35
Six-yard box1022.721655.2
LeicesterShGxGShAGAxGA
Own goals000111
Out of box6222.157632.67
Penalty area911611.891231514.26
Six-yard box1545.122266.31
Aston VillaShGxGShAGAxGA
1-152221.483953.86
16-301801.972833.15
31-452711.872932.15
46-602831.673433.72
61-752674.062622.48
76+3663.483676.98
LeicesterShGxGShAGAxGA
1-152132.023444.95
16-302042.13662.83
31-452152.543744.4
46-603622.345055.29
61-753245.483233.61
76+3844.673333.16
The next graph represents the shots attempted and recieved for the Aston Villa and Leicester within a specific timeframe of the game. The black line is the average and you can interpret it as a Heat Indicator.

Desicive Betting factors

FactorsAston VillaLeicester
Form Score-0.3730
Home/Away form-0.2370.067
Off ability0.5470.243
Def ability-0.591-1


Optimal equations estimations

The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:
TeamNo-G1 gl2 gls3+ gls
Aston Villa20%47%-3%37%
Leicester36%36%18%10%

The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Aston Villa and the red line for guest team, Leicester.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Aston Villa to score 1.41 goals and Leicester to score 1.18 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.59 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.23 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Aston Villa to score 1.52 goals and Leicester to score 1.01 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and the home team Aston Villa to win by 0.51 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
GoalsOddsGoalsOdds
014.080-13.22
14.172-32.4
25.214+3.66
34.44Ov 1.51.45
45.75Un 1.53.22
515.87Ov 2.52.01
6+27.78Un 2.51.99
Gg1.95Ov 3.53.66
NoG2.05Un 3.51.37
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios? The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number! Use it and get great odds for your choices!
If game ends with-1--X--2-
0-1 goals1.844.384.38
2-3 goals3.762.473.04
4+ goals1.369.16.5
Ov 1.52.213.473.85
Un 1.51.844.384.38
Ov 2.51.5416.63.46
Un 2.53.22.14.75
Ov 3.51.369.16.5
Un 3.52.63.033.5
Goal-Goal2.712.584.1
No Goal1.676.873.9
G-G+Ov 2.51.8211.472.75
NG+Un 2.52.136.873.15

Go to Top


Tottenham vs Norwich at 05 Dec 2021

In this article I will analyze the game between Tottenham and Norwich for Premier League (England).
OddsHomeDrawAwayOverUnder
Book1.414.758.21.852
Ours1.534.577.752.161.86
Value %-5.560.830.71-7.763.76

According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Draw, Away, Under (0.83 %, 0.71 %, 3.76 %) so let's further analyze the game.


Basic Data and latest results

Tottenham
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6312563433
Last 3210782112
At Home502715443
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
02 DecBrentfordH20WUNg
21 NovLeedsH21WOGg
07 NovEvertonA00DUNg
30 OctMan UnitedH03LONg
24 OctWest HamA01LUNg
17 OctNewcastleA32WOGg
03 OctAston VillaH21WOGg
26 SepArsenalA13LOGg
Norwich
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6222444542
Last 3120562212
At Away124242634
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
30 NovNewcastleA11DUGg
27 NovWolvesH00DUNg
20 NovSouthamptonH21WOGg
06 NovBrentfordA21WOGg
31 OctLeedsH12LOGg
23 OctChelseaA07LONg
16 OctBrightonH00DUNg
02 OctBurnleyA00DUNg

Playing style

TottenhamShGxGShAGAxGA
Open play93912.561301214.85
From corner2512.753932.06
Direct Freekick910.53400.23
Set piece911.33811.81
Penalty110.76110.76
NorwichShGxGShAGAxGA
Open play10257.381582320.51
From corner2010.683623.17
Set piece1401.89900.32
Direct Freekick1300.85400.24
Penalty221.52332.28
TottenhamShGxGShAGAxGA
Own goals222111
Out of box5531.936411.85
Penalty area6458.971071211.72
Six-yard box1635.021035.14
NorwichShGxGShAGAxGA
Own goals000222
Out of box7512.57322.37
Penalty area6656.941201915.47
Six-yard box1022.881556.69
TottenhamShGxGShAGAxGA
1-151422.332622.39
16-302932.652010.9
31-452212.533034.44
46-603434.223922.79
61-751633.93744.73
76+2212.33054.46
NorwichShGxGShAGAxGA
1-151720.783344.23
16-301811.922753.93
31-452722.793512.43
46-603112.293754.1
61-752301.693284.68
76+3522.874657.17
The next graph represents the shots attempted and recieved for the Tottenham and Norwich within a specific timeframe of the game. The black line is the average and you can interpret it as a Heat Indicator.

Desicive Betting factors

FactorsTottenhamNorwich
Form Score0.1510.052
Home/Away form0.336-0.333
Off ability-0.3680.243
Def ability-0.13-0.63


Optimal equations estimations

The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:
TeamNo-G1 gl2 gls3+ gls
Tottenham11%34%32%23%
Norwich48%34%13%5%

The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Tottenham and the red line for guest team, Norwich.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Tottenham to score 2.05 goals and Norwich to score 0.57 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.62 goals in the game and the home team Tottenham to win by 1.48 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Tottenham to score 1.68 goals and Norwich to score 0.74 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and the home team Tottenham to win by 0.94 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
GoalsOddsGoalsOdds
018.870-13.95
152-31.8
23.54+5.24
33.7Ov 1.51.34
47.35Un 1.53.95
522.73Ov 2.52.17
6+90.91Un 2.51.86
Gg2.18Ov 3.55.24
NoG1.85Un 3.51.24
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios? The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number! Use it and get great odds for your choices!
If game ends with-1--X--2-
0-1 goals1.554.776.84
2-3 goals1.464.839.11
4+ goals1.773.676.16
Ov 1.51.534.478.12
Un 1.51.554.776.84
Ov 2.51.398.875.91
Un 2.51.683.2110.57
Ov 3.51.773.676.16
Un 3.51.494.828.26
Goal-Goal2.12.756.29
No Goal1.2510.219.66
G-G+Ov 2.51.576.624.71
NG+Un 2.51.3310.218.31

Go to Top


Everton vs Arsenal at 06 Dec 2021

In this article I will analyze the game between Everton and Arsenal for Premier League (England).
OddsHomeDrawAwayOverUnder
Book3.423.552.172.051.82
Ours2.343.683.322.131.88
Value %13.5-1-15.96-1.83-1.75

According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home (13.5 %) so let's further analyze the game.


Basic Data and latest results

Everton
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 601563542
Last 300301321
At Home313485543
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
01 DecLiverpoolH14LOGg
28 NovBrentfordA01LUNg
21 NovMan CityA03LONg
07 NovTottenhamH00DUNg
01 NovWolvesA12LOGg
23 OctWatfordH25LOGg
17 OctWest HamH01LUNg
02 OctMan UnitedA11DUGg
Arsenal
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6402675333
Last 3102332221
At Away214333434
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
02 DecMan UnitedA23LOGg
27 NovNewcastleH20WUNg
20 NovLiverpoolA04LONg
07 NovWatfordH10WUNg
30 OctLeicesterA20WUNg
22 OctAston VillaH31WOGg
18 OctCrystal PalaceH22DOGg
02 OctBrightonA00DUNg

Playing style

EvertonShGxGShAGAxGA
Open play1351212.751291615.19
From corner2022.183053.55
Set piece1101.121322.18
Direct Freekick600.37700.43
Penalty332.28110.76
ArsenalShGxGShAGAxGA
Open play1421013.161531719.03
From corner3753.713001.93
Set piece911.231021.94
Direct Freekick910.63400.26
Penalty201.52110.76
EvertonShGxGShAGAxGA
Own goals000111
Out of box5511.687212.15
Penalty area1071312.82962014.06
Six-yard box1334.21124.91
ArsenalShGxGShAGAxGA
Out of box7832.327322.5
Penalty area103812.211061113.09
Six-yard box1865.721978.34
EvertonShGxGShAGAxGA
1-151811.692623.32
16-302422.993244.52
31-453022.152642.51
46-603744.72723.45
61-753163.382664.34
76+3523.794363.97
ArsenalShGxGShAGAxGA
1-153543.471732.36
16-302542.543211.67
31-452613.472743.77
46-603453.684443.15
61-754324.223246
76+3612.874646.98
The next graph represents the shots attempted and recieved for the Everton and Arsenal within a specific timeframe of the game. The black line is the average and you can interpret it as a Heat Indicator.

Desicive Betting factors

FactorsEvertonArsenal
Form Score-0.9680.259
Home/Away form-0.278-0.259
Off ability-0.4740.591
Def ability-0.626-0.015


Optimal equations estimations

The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:
TeamNo-G1 gl2 gls3+ gls
Everton23%36%25%16%
Arsenal33%36%19%12%

The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Everton and the red line for guest team, Arsenal.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Everton to score 1.01 goals and Arsenal to score 1.41 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and the guest team Arsenal to win by 0.4 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Everton to score 1.33 goals and Arsenal to score 1.11 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.22 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
GoalsOddsGoalsOdds
013.160-13.62
152-32.02
23.914+4.39
34.18Ov 1.51.38
46.76Un 1.53.62
516.39Ov 2.52.14
6+52.63Un 2.51.88
Gg1.94Ov 3.54.39
NoG2.07Un 3.51.3
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios? The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number! Use it and get great odds for your choices!
If game ends with-1--X--2-
0-1 goals2.343.633.37
2-3 goals2.213.873.46
4+ goals2.683.353.04
Ov 1.52.343.693.32
Un 1.52.343.633.37
Ov 2.52.076.872.7
Un 2.52.652.614.19
Ov 3.52.683.353.04
Un 3.52.253.783.43
Goal-Goal2.952.633.56
No Goal1.926.363.12
G-G+Ov 2.52.225.712.68
NG+Un 2.52.016.363.18

Go to Top