Premier League
In this article we will analyse the following games:
(with blue color are the value bets as estimated by the optimal equations method).
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Away (0.2 %) so let's further analyze the game.
The next graph represents the shots attempted and recieved for the Newcastle and Burnley within a specific timeframe of the game. The black line is the average and you can interpret it as a Heat Indicator.
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Newcastle and the red line for guest team, Burnley.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Newcastle to score 1.4 goals and Burnley to score 1.12 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.28 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Newcastle to score 1.39 goals and Burnley to score 1.17 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.22 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios?
The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number!
Use it and get great odds for your choices!
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Draw, Under (1.94 %, 0.76 %, 2.07 %) so let's further analyze the game.
The next graph represents the shots attempted and recieved for the Wolves and Liverpool within a specific timeframe of the game. The black line is the average and you can interpret it as a Heat Indicator.
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Wolves and the red line for guest team, Liverpool.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Wolves to score 0.68 goals and Liverpool to score 2.17 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.85 goals in the game and the guest team Liverpool to win by 1.49 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Wolves to score 0.86 goals and Liverpool to score 1.73 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.59 goals in the game and the guest team Liverpool to win by 0.87 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios?
The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number!
Use it and get great odds for your choices!
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Over (3.82 %, 6.21 %) so let's further analyze the game.
The next graph represents the shots attempted and recieved for the West Ham and Chelsea within a specific timeframe of the game. The black line is the average and you can interpret it as a Heat Indicator.
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, West Ham and the red line for guest team, Chelsea.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) West Ham to score 0.81 goals and Chelsea to score 1.58 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and the guest team Chelsea to win by 0.77 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) West Ham to score 1.08 goals and Chelsea to score 1.58 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.66 goals in the game and the guest team Chelsea to win by 0.5 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios?
The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number!
Use it and get great odds for your choices!
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Draw, Under (12.58 %, 8.98 %, 10.5 %) so let's further analyze the game.
The next graph represents the shots attempted and recieved for the Watford and Man City within a specific timeframe of the game. The black line is the average and you can interpret it as a Heat Indicator.
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Watford and the red line for guest team, Man City.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Watford to score 0.43 goals and Man City to score 2.85 goals. So, they expect a total of 3.28 goals in the game and the guest team Man City to win by 2.42 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Watford to score 0.94 goals and Man City to score 1.67 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.61 goals in the game and the guest team Man City to win by 0.73 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios?
The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number!
Use it and get great odds for your choices!
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Over (5.22 %, 6.61 %) so let's further analyze the game.
The next graph represents the shots attempted and recieved for the Southampton and Brighton within a specific timeframe of the game. The black line is the average and you can interpret it as a Heat Indicator.
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Southampton and the red line for guest team, Brighton.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Southampton to score 1.26 goals and Brighton to score 1.07 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.19 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Southampton to score 1.45 goals and Brighton to score 1.17 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.62 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.28 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios?
The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number!
Use it and get great odds for your choices!
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Draw, Away, Under (3 %, 15.41 %, 1.94 %) so let's further analyze the game.
The next graph represents the shots attempted and recieved for the Man United and Crystal Palace within a specific timeframe of the game. The black line is the average and you can interpret it as a Heat Indicator.
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Man United and the red line for guest team, Crystal Palace.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Man United to score 1.96 goals and Crystal Palace to score 0.73 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.68 goals in the game and the home team Man United to win by 1.23 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Man United to score 1.38 goals and Crystal Palace to score 1.17 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.21 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios?
The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number!
Use it and get great odds for your choices!
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Away (7.66 %) so let's further analyze the game.
The next graph represents the shots attempted and recieved for the Leeds and Brentford within a specific timeframe of the game. The black line is the average and you can interpret it as a Heat Indicator.
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Leeds and the red line for guest team, Brentford.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Leeds to score 1.59 goals and Brentford to score 0.95 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and the home team Leeds to win by 0.64 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Leeds to score 1.35 goals and Brentford to score 1.19 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.16 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios?
The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number!
Use it and get great odds for your choices!
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home (5.88 %) so let's further analyze the game.
The next graph represents the shots attempted and recieved for the Aston Villa and Leicester within a specific timeframe of the game. The black line is the average and you can interpret it as a Heat Indicator.
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Aston Villa and the red line for guest team, Leicester.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Aston Villa to score 1.41 goals and Leicester to score 1.18 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.59 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.23 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Aston Villa to score 1.52 goals and Leicester to score 1.01 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and the home team Aston Villa to win by 0.51 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios?
The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number!
Use it and get great odds for your choices!
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Draw, Away, Under (0.83 %, 0.71 %, 3.76 %) so let's further analyze the game.
The next graph represents the shots attempted and recieved for the Tottenham and Norwich within a specific timeframe of the game. The black line is the average and you can interpret it as a Heat Indicator.
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Tottenham and the red line for guest team, Norwich.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Tottenham to score 2.05 goals and Norwich to score 0.57 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.62 goals in the game and the home team Tottenham to win by 1.48 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Tottenham to score 1.68 goals and Norwich to score 0.74 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and the home team Tottenham to win by 0.94 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios?
The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number!
Use it and get great odds for your choices!
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home (13.5 %) so let's further analyze the game.
The next graph represents the shots attempted and recieved for the Everton and Arsenal within a specific timeframe of the game. The black line is the average and you can interpret it as a Heat Indicator.
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Everton and the red line for guest team, Arsenal.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Everton to score 1.01 goals and Arsenal to score 1.41 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and the guest team Arsenal to win by 0.4 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Everton to score 1.33 goals and Arsenal to score 1.11 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.22 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios?
The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number!
Use it and get great odds for your choices!
| Teams | Date | Home | Draw | Away | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle - Burnley | 04-Dec | 2.33 | 3.36 | 3.2 | 1.95 | 1.9 |
| Wolves - Liverpool | 04-Dec | 7.11 | 4.68 | 1.45 | 1.68 | 2.25 |
| West Ham - Chelsea | 04-Dec | 4.68 | 3.62 | 1.83 | 2.09 | 1.8 |
| Watford - Man City | 04-Dec | 14.88 | 7.14 | 1.2 | 1.45 | 2.76 |
| Southampton - Brighton | 04-Dec | 2.46 | 3.22 | 3.1 | 2.16 | 1.73 |
| Man United - Crystal Palace | 05-Dec | 1.56 | 4.2 | 6.16 | 1.8 | 2.07 |
| Leeds - Brentford | 05-Dec | 1.95 | 3.62 | 3.98 | 1.93 | 1.92 |
| Aston Villa - Leicester | 05-Dec | 2.37 | 3.5 | 3.05 | 1.88 | 1.98 |
| Tottenham - Norwich | 05-Dec | 1.41 | 4.75 | 8.2 | 1.85 | 2 |
| Everton - Arsenal | 06-Dec | 3.42 | 3.55 | 2.17 | 2.05 | 1.82 |
Click here to view the mathematical predictions for today!
Newcastle vs Burnley at 04 Dec 2021
In this article I will analyze the game between Newcastle and Burnley for Premier League (England).| Odds | Home | Draw | Away | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | 2.33 | 3.36 | 3.2 | 1.95 | 1.9 |
| Ours | 2.39 | 3.73 | 3.18 | 1.99 | 2.01 |
| Value % | -1.08 | -2.95 | 0.2 | -1.03 | -2.88 |
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Away (0.2 %) so let's further analyze the game.
Basic Data and latest results
Newcastle
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 22 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 4 |
| Last 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| At Home | 0 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 2 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Nov | Norwich | H | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 27 Nov | Arsenal | A | 0 | 2 | L | U | Ng |
| 20 Nov | Brentford | H | 3 | 3 | D | O | Gg |
| 06 Nov | Brighton | A | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 30 Oct | Chelsea | H | 0 | 3 | L | O | Ng |
| 23 Oct | Crystal Palace | A | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 17 Oct | Tottenham | H | 2 | 3 | L | O | Gg |
| 02 Oct | Wolves | A | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
Burnley
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 39 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
| Last 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 33 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| At Away | 0 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 4 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Dec | Wolves | A | 0 | 0 | D | U | Ng |
| 20 Nov | Crystal Palace | H | 3 | 3 | D | O | Gg |
| 06 Nov | Chelsea | A | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 30 Oct | Brentford | H | 3 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 23 Oct | Southampton | A | 2 | 2 | D | O | Gg |
| 16 Oct | Man City | A | 0 | 2 | L | U | Ng |
| 02 Oct | Norwich | H | 0 | 0 | D | U | Ng |
| 25 Sep | Leicester | A | 2 | 2 | D | O | Gg |
Playing style
| Newcastle | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open play | 106 | 10 | 9.22 | 179 | 24 | 22.8 |
| From corner | 32 | 3 | 1.45 | 24 | 1 | 1.37 |
| Set piece | 18 | 2 | 3.49 | 9 | 1 | 1.05 |
| Direct Freekick | 3 | 0 | 0.19 | 8 | 0 | 0.45 |
| Penalty | 1 | 1 | 0.76 | 5 | 4 | 3.81 |
| Burnley | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open play | 98 | 8 | 7.86 | 157 | 16 | 17.93 |
| From corner | 25 | 4 | 5.7 | 44 | 3 | 2.81 |
| Set piece | 17 | 2 | 1.73 | 7 | 0 | 0.37 |
| Direct Freekick | 5 | 0 | 0.28 | 7 | 1 | 0.59 |
| Newcastle | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own goals | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Out of box | 65 | 2 | 2.39 | 94 | 2 | 2.71 |
| Penalty area | 87 | 12 | 8.19 | 111 | 18 | 16.44 |
| Six-yard box | 7 | 1 | 3.52 | 19 | 9 | 9.32 |
| Burnley | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own goals | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Out of box | 53 | 2 | 1.6 | 69 | 2 | 2.24 |
| Penalty area | 76 | 6 | 7.58 | 128 | 13 | 13.57 |
| Six-yard box | 15 | 5 | 5.38 | 18 | 5 | 5.89 |
| Newcastle | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-15 | 24 | 3 | 2.75 | 27 | 2 | 1.39 |
| 16-30 | 21 | 1 | 1.38 | 46 | 6 | 6.38 |
| 31-45 | 30 | 4 | 3.11 | 31 | 0 | 4.02 |
| 46-60 | 24 | 3 | 2.87 | 49 | 8 | 6.22 |
| 61-75 | 29 | 3 | 1.76 | 35 | 8 | 7.77 |
| 76+ | 32 | 2 | 3.24 | 37 | 6 | 3.69 |
| Burnley | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-15 | 16 | 4 | 2.91 | 29 | 2 | 4.03 |
| 16-30 | 23 | 2 | 3.03 | 27 | 2 | 2.59 |
| 31-45 | 27 | 3 | 3.86 | 37 | 5 | 3.64 |
| 46-60 | 28 | 4 | 2.46 | 42 | 2 | 3.44 |
| 61-75 | 18 | 0 | 0.66 | 43 | 5 | 4.65 |
| 76+ | 33 | 1 | 2.65 | 37 | 4 | 3.35 |
Desicive Betting factors
| Factors | Newcastle | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| Form Score | -0.429 | 0.022 |
| Home/Away form | -0.635 | -0.356 |
| Off ability | 0.053 | 0.217 |
| Def ability | -1 | -0.607 |
Optimal equations estimations
The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:| Team | No-G | 1 gl | 2 gls | 3+ gls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle | 25% | 38% | 10% | 27% |
| Burnley | 31% | 35% | 20% | 14% |
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Newcastle and the red line for guest team, Burnley.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Newcastle to score 1.4 goals and Burnley to score 1.12 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.28 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Newcastle to score 1.39 goals and Burnley to score 1.17 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.22 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
| Goals | Odds | Goals | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.99 | 0-1 | 3.55 |
| 1 | 4.88 | 2-3 | 2.25 |
| 2 | 4.67 | 4+ | 3.65 |
| 3 | 4.35 | Ov 1.5 | 1.39 |
| 4 | 5.95 | Un 1.5 | 3.55 |
| 5 | 14.49 | Ov 2.5 | 1.98 |
| 6+ | 27.03 | Un 2.5 | 2.02 |
| Gg | 1.93 | Ov 3.5 | 3.65 |
| NoG | 2.08 | Un 3.5 | 1.38 |
| If game ends with | -1- | -X- | -2- |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 goals | 2.39 | 3.66 | 3.24 |
| 2-3 goals | 2.96 | 3.34 | 2.76 |
| 4+ goals | 1.83 | 4.72 | 4.15 |
| Ov 1.5 | 2.39 | 3.76 | 3.16 |
| Un 1.5 | 2.39 | 3.66 | 3.24 |
| Ov 2.5 | 1.87 | 8.69 | 2.85 |
| Un 2.5 | 3.33 | 2.36 | 3.62 |
| Ov 3.5 | 1.83 | 4.72 | 4.15 |
| Un 3.5 | 2.71 | 3.46 | 2.93 |
| Goal-Goal | 2.81 | 2.72 | 3.63 |
| No Goal | 2.06 | 6.25 | 2.81 |
| G-G+Ov 2.5 | 2.09 | 6.66 | 2.7 |
| NG+Un 2.5 | 2.44 | 6.25 | 2.65 |
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Wolves vs Liverpool at 04 Dec 2021
In this article I will analyze the game between Wolves and Liverpool for Premier League (England).| Odds | Home | Draw | Away | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | 7.11 | 4.68 | 1.45 | 1.68 | 2.25 |
| Ours | 6.25 | 4.52 | 1.62 | 1.87 | 2.15 |
| Value % | 1.94 | 0.76 | -7.24 | -6.05 | 2.07 |
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Draw, Under (1.94 %, 0.76 %, 2.07 %) so let's further analyze the game.
Basic Data and latest results
Wolves
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 50 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| Last 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 56 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| At Home | 3 | 1 | 3 | 48 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 5 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Dec | Burnley | H | 0 | 0 | D | U | Ng |
| 27 Nov | Norwich | A | 0 | 0 | D | U | Ng |
| 20 Nov | West Ham | H | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 06 Nov | Crystal Palace | A | 0 | 2 | L | U | Ng |
| 01 Nov | Everton | H | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 23 Oct | Leeds | A | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 16 Oct | Aston Villa | A | 3 | 2 | W | O | Gg |
| 02 Oct | Newcastle | H | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
Liverpool
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 72 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Last 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 100 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| At Away | 5 | 1 | 1 | 76 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Dec | Everton | A | 4 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 27 Nov | Southampton | H | 4 | 0 | W | O | Ng |
| 20 Nov | Arsenal | H | 4 | 0 | W | O | Ng |
| 07 Nov | West Ham | A | 2 | 3 | L | O | Gg |
| 30 Oct | Brighton | H | 2 | 2 | D | O | Gg |
| 24 Oct | Man United | A | 5 | 0 | W | O | Ng |
| 16 Oct | Watford | A | 5 | 0 | W | O | Ng |
| 03 Oct | Man City | H | 2 | 2 | D | O | Gg |
Playing style
| Wolves | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open play | 122 | 7 | 13.16 | 121 | 9 | 12.49 |
| From corner | 28 | 4 | 4.77 | 16 | 0 | 0.71 |
| Direct Freekick | 6 | 1 | 0.48 | 4 | 0 | 0.17 |
| Set piece | 6 | 0 | 0.66 | 12 | 0 | 1.32 |
| Penalty | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2.28 |
| Liverpool | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open play | 198 | 34 | 31.86 | 99 | 8 | 10.62 |
| From corner | 47 | 6 | 3.24 | 18 | 3 | 2.04 |
| Set piece | 16 | 1 | 1.37 | 10 | 1 | 2.37 |
| Direct Freekick | 7 | 1 | 0.48 | 3 | 0 | 0.26 |
| Penalty | 1 | 1 | 0.76 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Wolves | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own goals | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Out of box | 62 | 2 | 2.05 | 55 | 2 | 1.44 |
| Penalty area | 87 | 6 | 11.4 | 91 | 9 | 11.5 |
| Six-yard box | 12 | 3 | 4.61 | 10 | 1 | 4.04 |
| Liverpool | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own goals | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Out of box | 85 | 5 | 3.3 | 34 | 3 | 1.36 |
| Penalty area | 156 | 27 | 22.33 | 79 | 4 | 7.3 |
| Six-yard box | 28 | 11 | 12.08 | 16 | 4 | 5.63 |
| Wolves | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-15 | 22 | 1 | 1.74 | 26 | 1 | 2.16 |
| 16-30 | 26 | 2 | 1.76 | 17 | 1 | 2.15 |
| 31-45 | 25 | 1 | 3.58 | 22 | 3 | 2.79 |
| 46-60 | 30 | 3 | 2.5 | 26 | 2 | 2.87 |
| 61-75 | 28 | 1 | 4.6 | 28 | 2 | 2.67 |
| 76+ | 31 | 4 | 4.88 | 37 | 3 | 4.33 |
| Liverpool | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-15 | 36 | 6 | 5.77 | 14 | 1 | 2.43 |
| 16-30 | 37 | 6 | 4.9 | 24 | 2 | 3.15 |
| 31-45 | 53 | 7 | 7.7 | 19 | 2 | 1.37 |
| 46-60 | 57 | 10 | 7.46 | 21 | 0 | 1.59 |
| 61-75 | 42 | 7 | 5.76 | 22 | 5 | 3.27 |
| 76+ | 44 | 7 | 6.11 | 30 | 2 | 3.49 |
Desicive Betting factors
| Factors | Wolves | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| Form Score | 0.103 | 0.533 |
| Home/Away form | -0.054 | 0.6 |
| Off ability | -0.547 | 1 |
| Def ability | 0.304 | -0.015 |
Optimal equations estimations
The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:| Team | No-G | 1 gl | 2 gls | 3+ gls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolves | 44% | 28% | 28% | 1% |
| Liverpool | 13% | 30% | 28% | 29% |
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Wolves and the red line for guest team, Liverpool.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Wolves to score 0.68 goals and Liverpool to score 2.17 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.85 goals in the game and the guest team Liverpool to win by 1.49 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Wolves to score 0.86 goals and Liverpool to score 1.73 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.59 goals in the game and the guest team Liverpool to win by 0.87 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
| Goals | Odds | Goals | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.86 | 0-1 | 4.5 |
| 1 | 6.02 | 2-3 | 1.88 |
| 2 | 4.12 | 4+ | 4.07 |
| 3 | 3.46 | Ov 1.5 | 1.29 |
| 4 | 6.17 | Un 1.5 | 4.5 |
| 5 | 12.2 | Ov 2.5 | 1.87 |
| 6+ | 500 | Un 2.5 | 2.15 |
| Gg | 2.03 | Ov 3.5 | 4.07 |
| NoG | 1.97 | Un 3.5 | 1.33 |
| If game ends with | -1- | -X- | -2- |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 goals | 6.17 | 3.96 | 1.71 |
| 2-3 goals | 4.4 | 6.41 | 1.62 |
| 4+ goals | 61.5 | 3 | 1.54 |
| Ov 1.5 | 6.22 | 4.72 | 1.59 |
| Un 1.5 | 6.17 | 3.96 | 1.71 |
| Ov 2.5 | 6.01 | 6.52 | 1.47 |
| Un 2.5 | 6.46 | 3.35 | 1.83 |
| Ov 3.5 | 61.5 | 3 | 1.54 |
| Un 3.5 | 4.8 | 5.42 | 1.65 |
| Goal-Goal | 5.59 | 2.98 | 2.06 |
| No Goal | 6.96 | 9.07 | 1.34 |
| G-G+Ov 2.5 | 4.65 | 4.99 | 1.71 |
| NG+Un 2.5 | 5.31 | 9.07 | 1.5 |
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West Ham vs Chelsea at 04 Dec 2021
In this article I will analyze the game between West Ham and Chelsea for Premier League (England).| Odds | Home | Draw | Away | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | 4.68 | 3.62 | 1.83 | 2.09 | 1.8 |
| Ours | 3.97 | 4.13 | 1.98 | 1.85 | 2.17 |
| Value % | 3.82 | -3.41 | -4.14 | 6.21 | -9.47 |
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Over (3.82 %, 6.21 %) so let's further analyze the game.
Basic Data and latest results
West Ham
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 56 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
| Last 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| At Home | 3 | 2 | 2 | 52 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 2 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Dec | Brighton | H | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 28 Nov | Man City | A | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 20 Nov | Wolves | A | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
| 07 Nov | Liverpool | H | 3 | 2 | W | O | Gg |
| 31 Oct | Aston Villa | A | 4 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 24 Oct | Tottenham | H | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 17 Oct | Everton | A | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 03 Oct | Brentford | H | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
Chelsea
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 78 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| Last 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 78 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| At Away | 6 | 1 | 0 | 90 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Dec | Watford | A | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 28 Nov | Man United | H | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 20 Nov | Leicester | A | 3 | 0 | W | O | Ng |
| 06 Nov | Burnley | H | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 30 Oct | Newcastle | A | 3 | 0 | W | O | Ng |
| 23 Oct | Norwich | H | 7 | 0 | W | O | Ng |
| 16 Oct | Brentford | A | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 02 Oct | Southampton | H | 3 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
Playing style
| West Ham | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open play | 147 | 18 | 17.39 | 127 | 15 | 14.84 |
| From corner | 36 | 6 | 4.35 | 35 | 0 | 2.02 |
| Direct Freekick | 10 | 0 | 0.6 | 3 | 1 | 0.31 |
| Set piece | 7 | 1 | 0.95 | 12 | 1 | 1.4 |
| Penalty | 2 | 0 | 1.52 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chelsea | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open play | 162 | 24 | 23.07 | 92 | 3 | 9.2 |
| From corner | 37 | 5 | 2.75 | 25 | 1 | 1.5 |
| Direct Freekick | 10 | 1 | 0.61 | 3 | 0 | 0.2 |
| Set piece | 7 | 0 | 0.48 | 9 | 0 | 0.5 |
| Penalty | 3 | 3 | 2.28 | 2 | 2 | 1.52 |
| West Ham | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own goals | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Out of box | 77 | 4 | 2.97 | 57 | 3 | 1.98 |
| Penalty area | 100 | 11 | 11.75 | 107 | 9 | 11.17 |
| Six-yard box | 23 | 8 | 8.08 | 13 | 5 | 5.42 |
| Chelsea | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own goals | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Out of box | 77 | 5 | 3.09 | 55 | 0 | 1.56 |
| Penalty area | 126 | 22 | 18.07 | 67 | 5 | 9.17 |
| Six-yard box | 15 | 5 | 7.03 | 9 | 1 | 2.19 |
| West Ham | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-15 | 31 | 3 | 2.96 | 17 | 1 | 1.44 |
| 16-30 | 31 | 3 | 2.5 | 30 | 2 | 2.53 |
| 31-45 | 26 | 2 | 2.2 | 47 | 5 | 5.95 |
| 46-60 | 36 | 2 | 3.62 | 33 | 2 | 3.35 |
| 61-75 | 45 | 8 | 7.93 | 21 | 2 | 2.04 |
| 76+ | 33 | 7 | 5.58 | 29 | 5 | 3.27 |
| Chelsea | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-15 | 32 | 5 | 4.61 | 14 | 0 | 0.78 |
| 16-30 | 37 | 5 | 3.29 | 16 | 0 | 1.16 |
| 31-45 | 30 | 5 | 4.51 | 19 | 1 | 2.05 |
| 46-60 | 36 | 5 | 3.13 | 30 | 4 | 4.49 |
| 61-75 | 32 | 5 | 4.92 | 19 | 0 | 1.31 |
| 76+ | 52 | 8 | 8.74 | 33 | 1 | 3.12 |
Desicive Betting factors
| Factors | West Ham | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| Form Score | 0.024 | 0.652 |
| Home/Away form | 0.012 | 0.948 |
| Off ability | 0.505 | 1 |
| Def ability | -0.678 | -0.089 |
Optimal equations estimations
The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:| Team | No-G | 1 gl | 2 gls | 3+ gls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Ham | 38% | 26% | 24% | 12% |
| Chelsea | 19% | 30% | 26% | 25% |
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, West Ham and the red line for guest team, Chelsea.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) West Ham to score 0.81 goals and Chelsea to score 1.58 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and the guest team Chelsea to win by 0.77 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) West Ham to score 1.08 goals and Chelsea to score 1.58 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.66 goals in the game and the guest team Chelsea to win by 0.5 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
| Goals | Odds | Goals | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.89 | 0-1 | 4.22 |
| 1 | 6.06 | 2-3 | 2.07 |
| 2 | 4.46 | 4+ | 3.56 |
| 3 | 3.88 | Ov 1.5 | 1.31 |
| 4 | 6.17 | Un 1.5 | 4.22 |
| 5 | 11.11 | Ov 2.5 | 1.86 |
| 6+ | 34.48 | Un 2.5 | 2.17 |
| Gg | 2 | Ov 3.5 | 3.56 |
| NoG | 2 | Un 3.5 | 1.39 |
| If game ends with | -1- | -X- | -2- |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 goals | 4.94 | 3.29 | 2.03 |
| 2-3 goals | 3.47 | 6.18 | 1.82 |
| 4+ goals | 4.32 | 3.05 | 2.27 |
| Ov 1.5 | 3.74 | 4.49 | 1.96 |
| Un 1.5 | 4.94 | 3.29 | 2.03 |
| Ov 2.5 | 3.39 | 5.86 | 1.87 |
| Un 2.5 | 4.96 | 3.07 | 2.11 |
| Ov 3.5 | 4.32 | 3.05 | 2.27 |
| Un 3.5 | 3.84 | 4.79 | 1.88 |
| Goal-Goal | 3.62 | 2.94 | 2.6 |
| No Goal | 4.39 | 6.94 | 1.59 |
| G-G+Ov 2.5 | 3.06 | 4.59 | 2.2 |
| NG+Un 2.5 | 4.12 | 6.94 | 1.76 |
Go to Top
Watford vs Man City at 04 Dec 2021
In this article I will analyze the game between Watford and Man City for Premier League (England).| Odds | Home | Draw | Away | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | 14.88 | 7.14 | 1.2 | 1.45 | 2.76 |
| Ours | 5.18 | 4.35 | 1.73 | 1.88 | 2.14 |
| Value % | 12.58 | 8.98 | -25.53 | -15.77 | 10.5 |
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Draw, Under (12.58 %, 8.98 %, 10.5 %) so let's further analyze the game.
Basic Data and latest results
Watford
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 33 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 |
| Last 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 33 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| At Home | 2 | 1 | 4 | 33 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 3 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Dec | Chelsea | H | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 28 Nov | Leicester | A | 2 | 4 | L | O | Gg |
| 20 Nov | Man United | H | 4 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 07 Nov | Arsenal | A | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
| 30 Oct | Southampton | H | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
| 23 Oct | Everton | A | 5 | 2 | W | O | Gg |
| 16 Oct | Liverpool | H | 0 | 5 | L | O | Ng |
| 02 Oct | Leeds | A | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
Man City
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 83 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| Last 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 100 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| At Away | 5 | 1 | 1 | 76 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Dec | Aston Villa | A | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 28 Nov | West Ham | H | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 21 Nov | Everton | H | 3 | 0 | W | O | Ng |
| 06 Nov | Man United | A | 2 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 30 Oct | Crystal Palace | H | 0 | 2 | L | U | Ng |
| 23 Oct | Brighton | A | 4 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 16 Oct | Burnley | H | 2 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 03 Oct | Liverpool | A | 2 | 2 | D | O | Gg |
Playing style
| Watford | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open play | 127 | 15 | 12.65 | 144 | 18 | 19.32 |
| From corner | 16 | 2 | 1.09 | 33 | 5 | 3.58 |
| Set piece | 9 | 1 | 1.44 | 13 | 1 | 1.65 |
| Direct Freekick | 8 | 0 | 0.4 | 9 | 1 | 0.47 |
| Penalty | 2 | 1 | 1.52 | 2 | 1 | 1.52 |
| Man City | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open play | 191 | 26 | 28.02 | 68 | 6 | 6.5 |
| From corner | 44 | 2 | 2.87 | 6 | 1 | 0.19 |
| Set piece | 8 | 1 | 1.74 | 11 | 0 | 1.25 |
| Direct Freekick | 7 | 0 | 0.35 | 4 | 0 | 0.22 |
| Penalty | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.76 |
| Watford | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own goals | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Out of box | 62 | 0 | 2.08 | 76 | 5 | 3.3 |
| Penalty area | 92 | 16 | 12.86 | 105 | 12 | 13.05 |
| Six-yard box | 8 | 3 | 2.17 | 19 | 8 | 9.2 |
| Man City | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own goals | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Out of box | 76 | 4 | 2.23 | 30 | 2 | 1.03 |
| Penalty area | 145 | 13 | 18.06 | 56 | 6 | 7.4 |
| Six-yard box | 27 | 10 | 10.69 | 4 | 0 | 0.49 |
| Watford | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-15 | 24 | 2 | 2.97 | 34 | 4 | 3.52 |
| 16-30 | 25 | 3 | 2.66 | 21 | 4 | 2.09 |
| 31-45 | 26 | 3 | 2.27 | 38 | 6 | 6.58 |
| 46-60 | 26 | 1 | 2.76 | 34 | 4 | 3.81 |
| 61-75 | 20 | 3 | 1.62 | 44 | 5 | 5.56 |
| 76+ | 41 | 7 | 4.83 | 30 | 3 | 5 |
| Man City | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-15 | 38 | 6 | 7.89 | 12 | 1 | 1.07 |
| 16-30 | 42 | 4 | 5.39 | 15 | 0 | 1.56 |
| 31-45 | 47 | 5 | 5.46 | 5 | 0 | 0.23 |
| 46-60 | 48 | 3 | 3.23 | 22 | 3 | 1.71 |
| 61-75 | 33 | 5 | 4.19 | 11 | 1 | 1.52 |
| 76+ | 42 | 6 | 6.82 | 25 | 3 | 2.84 |
Desicive Betting factors
| Factors | Watford | Man City |
|---|---|---|
| Form Score | -0.484 | 0.704 |
| Home/Away form | -0.527 | 0.696 |
| Off ability | 0.126 | 0.652 |
| Def ability | -1 | -0.333 |
Optimal equations estimations
The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:| Team | No-G | 1 gl | 2 gls | 3+ gls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watford | 42% | 28% | 25% | 5% |
| Man City | 15% | 30% | 28% | 27% |
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Watford and the red line for guest team, Man City.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Watford to score 0.43 goals and Man City to score 2.85 goals. So, they expect a total of 3.28 goals in the game and the guest team Man City to win by 2.42 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Watford to score 0.94 goals and Man City to score 1.67 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.61 goals in the game and the guest team Man City to win by 0.73 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
| Goals | Odds | Goals | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.62 | 0-1 | 4.33 |
| 1 | 5.99 | 2-3 | 1.96 |
| 2 | 4.24 | 4+ | 3.86 |
| 3 | 3.65 | Ov 1.5 | 1.3 |
| 4 | 6.17 | Un 1.5 | 4.33 |
| 5 | 12.05 | Ov 2.5 | 1.88 |
| 6+ | 71.43 | Un 2.5 | 2.14 |
| Gg | 2.02 | Ov 3.5 | 3.86 |
| NoG | 1.98 | Un 3.5 | 1.35 |
| If game ends with | -1- | -X- | -2- |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 goals | 5.37 | 3.61 | 1.86 |
| 2-3 goals | 4.21 | 6.14 | 1.67 |
| 4+ goals | 8.93 | 3.08 | 1.77 |
| Ov 1.5 | 5.13 | 4.6 | 1.7 |
| Un 1.5 | 5.37 | 3.61 | 1.86 |
| Ov 2.5 | 4.76 | 6.35 | 1.58 |
| Un 2.5 | 5.77 | 3.18 | 1.95 |
| Ov 3.5 | 8.93 | 3.08 | 1.77 |
| Un 3.5 | 4.52 | 5.04 | 1.72 |
| Goal-Goal | 4.75 | 2.96 | 2.22 |
| No Goal | 5.69 | 7.91 | 1.43 |
| G-G+Ov 2.5 | 3.95 | 4.89 | 1.84 |
| NG+Un 2.5 | 4.74 | 7.91 | 1.61 |
Go to Top
Southampton vs Brighton at 04 Dec 2021
In this article I will analyze the game between Southampton and Brighton for Premier League (England).| Odds | Home | Draw | Away | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | 2.46 | 3.22 | 3.1 | 2.16 | 1.73 |
| Ours | 2.18 | 4.03 | 3.4 | 1.89 | 2.12 |
| Value % | 5.22 | -6.24 | -2.85 | 6.61 | -10.63 |
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Over (5.22 %, 6.61 %) so let's further analyze the game.
Basic Data and latest results
Southampton
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 44 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| Last 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| At Home | 2 | 4 | 1 | 48 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 5 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Dec | Leicester | H | 2 | 2 | D | O | Gg |
| 27 Nov | Liverpool | A | 0 | 4 | L | O | Ng |
| 20 Nov | Norwich | A | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 05 Nov | Aston Villa | H | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 30 Oct | Watford | A | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 23 Oct | Burnley | H | 2 | 2 | D | O | Gg |
| 16 Oct | Leeds | H | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 02 Oct | Chelsea | A | 1 | 3 | L | O | Gg |
Brighton
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 22 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 4 |
| Last 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| At Away | 2 | 4 | 1 | 48 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 5 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Dec | West Ham | A | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 27 Nov | Leeds | H | 0 | 0 | D | U | Ng |
| 20 Nov | Aston Villa | A | 0 | 2 | L | U | Ng |
| 06 Nov | Newcastle | H | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 30 Oct | Liverpool | A | 2 | 2 | D | O | Gg |
| 23 Oct | Man City | H | 1 | 4 | L | O | Gg |
| 16 Oct | Norwich | A | 0 | 0 | D | U | Ng |
| 02 Oct | Arsenal | H | 0 | 0 | D | U | Ng |
Playing style
| Southampton | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open play | 137 | 8 | 14.84 | 129 | 16 | 15.27 |
| From corner | 26 | 3 | 3.09 | 23 | 4 | 2.69 |
| Set piece | 7 | 0 | 0.37 | 12 | 0 | 1.9 |
| Direct Freekick | 5 | 0 | 0.21 | 8 | 0 | 0.53 |
| Penalty | 2 | 2 | 1.52 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brighton | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open play | 120 | 8 | 11.95 | 123 | 9 | 11.41 |
| From corner | 30 | 1 | 1.87 | 25 | 3 | 3.48 |
| Direct Freekick | 6 | 0 | 0.52 | 6 | 0 | 0.31 |
| Set piece | 6 | 1 | 0.21 | 11 | 1 | 0.48 |
| Penalty | 3 | 3 | 2.28 | 2 | 2 | 1.52 |
| Southampton | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own goals | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Out of box | 70 | 1 | 2.47 | 60 | 1 | 2.02 |
| Penalty area | 89 | 8 | 9.39 | 93 | 12 | 10.89 |
| Six-yard box | 17 | 3 | 7.18 | 19 | 7 | 7.49 |
| Brighton | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Out of box | 59 | 2 | 2.05 | 69 | 1 | 2.23 |
| Penalty area | 101 | 10 | 12.42 | 87 | 10 | 10.65 |
| Six-yard box | 5 | 1 | 2.36 | 11 | 4 | 4.31 |
| Southampton | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-15 | 31 | 3 | 3.08 | 25 | 4 | 4.36 |
| 16-30 | 32 | 3 | 4.17 | 17 | 1 | 1.87 |
| 31-45 | 33 | 2 | 4.17 | 26 | 2 | 2.3 |
| 46-60 | 29 | 3 | 3.34 | 39 | 7 | 3.57 |
| 61-75 | 22 | 1 | 2.96 | 26 | 1 | 2.7 |
| 76+ | 30 | 1 | 2.33 | 39 | 5 | 5.6 |
| Brighton | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-15 | 22 | 1 | 2.02 | 27 | 4 | 3.73 |
| 16-30 | 23 | 1 | 2.51 | 27 | 3 | 2.5 |
| 31-45 | 26 | 3 | 3.46 | 17 | 1 | 1.71 |
| 46-60 | 36 | 1 | 2.57 | 29 | 3 | 3.36 |
| 61-75 | 24 | 2 | 2.37 | 19 | 1 | 1.38 |
| 76+ | 34 | 5 | 3.91 | 48 | 3 | 4.52 |
Desicive Betting factors
| Factors | Southampton | Brighton |
|---|---|---|
| Form Score | -0.127 | -0.311 |
| Home/Away form | 0.037 | 0.111 |
| Off ability | 0.474 | 0.157 |
| Def ability | -0.278 | -0.63 |
Optimal equations estimations
The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:| Team | No-G | 1 gl | 2 gls | 3+ gls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton | 25% | 18% | 44% | 13% |
| Brighton | 31% | 35% | 20% | 14% |
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Southampton and the red line for guest team, Brighton.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Southampton to score 1.26 goals and Brighton to score 1.07 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.19 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Southampton to score 1.45 goals and Brighton to score 1.17 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.62 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.28 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
| Goals | Odds | Goals | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.99 | 0-1 | 4.55 |
| 1 | 6.99 | 2-3 | 1.94 |
| 2 | 3.98 | 4+ | 3.8 |
| 3 | 3.77 | Ov 1.5 | 1.28 |
| 4 | 6.29 | Un 1.5 | 4.55 |
| 5 | 11.49 | Ov 2.5 | 1.89 |
| 6+ | 58.82 | Un 2.5 | 2.12 |
| Gg | 1.93 | Ov 3.5 | 3.8 |
| NoG | 2.08 | Un 3.5 | 1.36 |
| If game ends with | -1- | -X- | -2- |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 goals | 3.93 | 2.86 | 2.53 |
| 2-3 goals | 1.55 | 8.19 | 4.3 |
| 4+ goals | 3.76 | 2.46 | 3.06 |
| Ov 1.5 | 1.93 | 4.58 | 3.78 |
| Un 1.5 | 3.93 | 2.86 | 2.53 |
| Ov 2.5 | 1.99 | 4.93 | 3.38 |
| Un 2.5 | 2.43 | 3.36 | 3.44 |
| Ov 3.5 | 3.76 | 2.46 | 3.06 |
| Un 3.5 | 1.89 | 5.26 | 3.56 |
| Goal-Goal | 2.29 | 3.05 | 4.25 |
| No Goal | 2.06 | 6.25 | 2.81 |
| G-G+Ov 2.5 | 2.01 | 4.25 | 3.73 |
| NG+Un 2.5 | 2.1 | 6.25 | 2.98 |
Go to Top
Man United vs Crystal Palace at 05 Dec 2021
In this article I will analyze the game between Man United and Crystal Palace for Premier League (England).| Odds | Home | Draw | Away | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | 1.56 | 4.2 | 6.16 | 1.8 | 2.07 |
| Ours | 2.4 | 3.73 | 3.16 | 2.01 | 1.99 |
| Value % | -22.44 | 3 | 15.41 | -5.8 | 1.94 |
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Draw, Away, Under (3 %, 15.41 %, 1.94 %) so let's further analyze the game.
Basic Data and latest results
Man United
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 39 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 |
| Last 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 44 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| At Home | 3 | 1 | 3 | 48 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 3 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Dec | Arsenal | H | 3 | 2 | W | O | Gg |
| 28 Nov | Chelsea | A | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 20 Nov | Watford | A | 1 | 4 | L | O | Gg |
| 06 Nov | Man City | H | 0 | 2 | L | U | Ng |
| 30 Oct | Tottenham | A | 3 | 0 | W | O | Ng |
| 24 Oct | Liverpool | H | 0 | 5 | L | O | Ng |
| 16 Oct | Leicester | A | 2 | 4 | L | O | Gg |
| 02 Oct | Everton | H | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
Crystal Palace
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 44 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
| Last 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| At Away | 1 | 3 | 3 | 29 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 2 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Nov | Leeds | A | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
| 27 Nov | Aston Villa | H | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 20 Nov | Burnley | A | 3 | 3 | D | O | Gg |
| 06 Nov | Wolves | H | 2 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 30 Oct | Man City | A | 2 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 23 Oct | Newcastle | H | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 18 Oct | Arsenal | A | 2 | 2 | D | O | Gg |
| 03 Oct | Leicester | H | 2 | 2 | D | O | Gg |
Playing style
| Man United | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open play | 149 | 23 | 15.39 | 143 | 19 | 18.54 |
| From corner | 25 | 0 | 1.31 | 39 | 3 | 4.03 |
| Set piece | 11 | 0 | 3.08 | 13 | 1 | 1.62 |
| Direct Freekick | 4 | 0 | 0.22 | 8 | 0 | 0.39 |
| Penalty | 2 | 1 | 1.52 | 3 | 1 | 2.28 |
| Crystal Palace | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open play | 112 | 15 | 14.22 | 98 | 9 | 8.4 |
| From corner | 27 | 1 | 1.2 | 34 | 8 | 3.6 |
| Set piece | 10 | 1 | 1.67 | 23 | 1 | 1.66 |
| Direct Freekick | 5 | 0 | 0.4 | 11 | 1 | 0.72 |
| Penalty | 2 | 2 | 1.52 | 1 | 1 | 0.76 |
| Man United | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own goals | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Out of box | 66 | 2 | 1.62 | 78 | 3 | 2.41 |
| Penalty area | 116 | 19 | 15.17 | 110 | 14 | 15.67 |
| Six-yard box | 9 | 3 | 4.73 | 16 | 5 | 6.79 |
| Crystal Palace | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Out of box | 51 | 0 | 1.83 | 65 | 6 | 2.45 |
| Penalty area | 93 | 16 | 12.15 | 90 | 9 | 8.95 |
| Six-yard box | 12 | 3 | 5.03 | 12 | 5 | 3.73 |
| Man United | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-15 | 32 | 0 | 3.83 | 36 | 4 | 5.96 |
| 16-30 | 36 | 2 | 2.67 | 39 | 4 | 4.78 |
| 31-45 | 35 | 4 | 3.48 | 32 | 3 | 3.96 |
| 46-60 | 32 | 8 | 4.82 | 24 | 5 | 2.58 |
| 61-75 | 29 | 4 | 3.11 | 28 | 2 | 3.54 |
| 76+ | 27 | 6 | 3.59 | 47 | 6 | 6.06 |
| Crystal Palace | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-15 | 14 | 2 | 1.36 | 26 | 2 | 2.12 |
| 16-30 | 19 | 0 | 1.82 | 30 | 4 | 1.99 |
| 31-45 | 21 | 2 | 2.63 | 30 | 4 | 4.31 |
| 46-60 | 37 | 6 | 4.38 | 33 | 2 | 2.23 |
| 61-75 | 31 | 4 | 4.07 | 21 | 2 | 1.38 |
| 76+ | 34 | 5 | 4.75 | 27 | 6 | 3.1 |
Desicive Betting factors
| Factors | Man United | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| Form Score | -0.206 | -0.074 |
| Home/Away form | -0.212 | -0.237 |
| Off ability | 0.158 | 0.539 |
| Def ability | -0.652 | -0.385 |
Optimal equations estimations
The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:| Team | No-G | 1 gl | 2 gls | 3+ gls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United | 25% | 37% | 14% | 24% |
| Crystal Palace | 31% | 35% | 20% | 14% |
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Man United and the red line for guest team, Crystal Palace.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Man United to score 1.96 goals and Crystal Palace to score 0.73 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.68 goals in the game and the home team Man United to win by 1.23 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Man United to score 1.38 goals and Crystal Palace to score 1.17 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.21 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
| Goals | Odds | Goals | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.99 | 0-1 | 3.6 |
| 1 | 4.98 | 2-3 | 2.19 |
| 2 | 4.48 | 4+ | 3.77 |
| 3 | 4.27 | Ov 1.5 | 1.39 |
| 4 | 6.13 | Un 1.5 | 3.6 |
| 5 | 14.49 | Ov 2.5 | 2 |
| 6+ | 30.3 | Un 2.5 | 2 |
| Gg | 1.93 | Ov 3.5 | 3.77 |
| NoG | 2.08 | Un 3.5 | 1.36 |
| If game ends with | -1- | -X- | -2- |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 goals | 2.44 | 3.61 | 3.2 |
| 2-3 goals | 2.7 | 3.54 | 2.87 |
| 4+ goals | 1.99 | 4.27 | 3.79 |
| Ov 1.5 | 2.39 | 3.78 | 3.15 |
| Un 1.5 | 2.44 | 3.61 | 3.2 |
| Ov 2.5 | 1.93 | 8.05 | 2.79 |
| Un 2.5 | 3.17 | 2.43 | 3.66 |
| Ov 3.5 | 1.99 | 4.27 | 3.79 |
| Un 3.5 | 2.6 | 3.57 | 2.99 |
| Goal-Goal | 2.84 | 2.72 | 3.58 |
| No Goal | 2.06 | 6.25 | 2.81 |
| G-G+Ov 2.5 | 2.13 | 6.29 | 2.69 |
| NG+Un 2.5 | 2.35 | 6.25 | 2.72 |
Go to Top
Leeds vs Brentford at 05 Dec 2021
In this article I will analyze the game between Leeds and Brentford for Premier League (England).| Odds | Home | Draw | Away | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | 1.95 | 3.62 | 3.98 | 1.93 | 1.92 |
| Ours | 2.46 | 3.77 | 3.05 | 2.01 | 1.99 |
| Value % | -10.63 | -1.1 | 7.66 | -2.06 | -1.83 |
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Away (7.66 %) so let's further analyze the game.
Basic Data and latest results
Leeds
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 50 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
| Last 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 44 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| At Home | 2 | 3 | 2 | 43 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 4 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Nov | Crystal Palace | H | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 27 Nov | Brighton | A | 0 | 0 | D | U | Ng |
| 21 Nov | Tottenham | A | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 07 Nov | Leicester | H | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 31 Oct | Norwich | A | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 23 Oct | Wolves | H | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 16 Oct | Southampton | A | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
| 02 Oct | Watford | H | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
Brentford
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 |
| Last 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 44 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| At Away | 2 | 3 | 2 | 43 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 4 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Dec | Tottenham | A | 0 | 2 | L | U | Ng |
| 28 Nov | Everton | H | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 20 Nov | Newcastle | A | 3 | 3 | D | O | Gg |
| 06 Nov | Norwich | H | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 30 Oct | Burnley | A | 1 | 3 | L | O | Gg |
| 24 Oct | Leicester | H | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 16 Oct | Chelsea | H | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
| 03 Oct | West Ham | A | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
Playing style
| Leeds | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open play | 143 | 8 | 12.12 | 160 | 15 | 17.75 |
| From corner | 36 | 2 | 3.21 | 32 | 3 | 3.16 |
| Set piece | 16 | 0 | 0.68 | 7 | 1 | 0.88 |
| Direct Freekick | 4 | 1 | 0.19 | 10 | 0 | 0.82 |
| Penalty | 2 | 2 | 1.52 | 1 | 1 | 0.76 |
| Brentford | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open play | 112 | 11 | 15.01 | 128 | 14 | 13.27 |
| From corner | 29 | 2 | 3.41 | 26 | 3 | 2.74 |
| Set piece | 11 | 2 | 1.01 | 9 | 1 | 1.42 |
| Direct Freekick | 4 | 0 | 0.38 | 9 | 0 | 0.44 |
| Penalty | 2 | 2 | 1.52 | 1 | 1 | 0.76 |
| Leeds | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own goals | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Out of box | 92 | 5 | 2.64 | 85 | 0 | 3.12 |
| Penalty area | 96 | 5 | 10.9 | 111 | 15 | 14.4 |
| Six-yard box | 13 | 3 | 4.18 | 13 | 4 | 4.86 |
| Brentford | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own goals | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Out of box | 43 | 0 | 1.55 | 68 | 5 | 2.09 |
| Penalty area | 95 | 7 | 9.66 | 84 | 11 | 9.65 |
| Six-yard box | 19 | 9 | 9.13 | 20 | 2 | 5.89 |
| Leeds | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-15 | 33 | 1 | 1.96 | 24 | 1 | 2.32 |
| 16-30 | 30 | 3 | 1.96 | 43 | 4 | 5.17 |
| 31-45 | 24 | 2 | 2.28 | 27 | 1 | 2.5 |
| 46-60 | 43 | 3 | 4.35 | 45 | 9 | 5.36 |
| 61-75 | 24 | 1 | 2.04 | 36 | 3 | 4.7 |
| 76+ | 47 | 3 | 5.13 | 35 | 2 | 3.33 |
| Brentford | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-15 | 26 | 2 | 3.46 | 22 | 6 | 2.67 |
| 16-30 | 32 | 6 | 5.99 | 21 | 2 | 3.3 |
| 31-45 | 17 | 1 | 1.78 | 39 | 4 | 4.71 |
| 46-60 | 26 | 3 | 3.64 | 30 | 1 | 2.94 |
| 61-75 | 19 | 2 | 2.74 | 29 | 4 | 3.16 |
| 76+ | 38 | 3 | 3.73 | 32 | 2 | 1.85 |
Desicive Betting factors
| Factors | Leeds | Brentford |
|---|---|---|
| Form Score | 0.111 | -0.459 |
| Home/Away form | -0.087 | -0.015 |
| Off ability | 0.474 | 0.539 |
| Def ability | -0.104 | -0.63 |
Optimal equations estimations
The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:| Team | No-G | 1 gl | 2 gls | 3+ gls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds | 26% | 33% | 23% | 19% |
| Brentford | 30% | 35% | 21% | 14% |
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Leeds and the red line for guest team, Brentford.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Leeds to score 1.59 goals and Brentford to score 0.95 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and the home team Leeds to win by 0.64 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Leeds to score 1.35 goals and Brentford to score 1.19 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.16 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
| Goals | Odds | Goals | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.82 | 0-1 | 3.75 |
| 1 | 5.29 | 2-3 | 2.1 |
| 2 | 4.26 | 4+ | 3.88 |
| 3 | 4.15 | Ov 1.5 | 1.36 |
| 4 | 6.29 | Un 1.5 | 3.75 |
| 5 | 13.89 | Ov 2.5 | 2 |
| 6+ | 37.04 | Un 2.5 | 1.99 |
| Gg | 1.93 | Ov 3.5 | 3.88 |
| NoG | 2.07 | Un 3.5 | 1.35 |
| If game ends with | -1- | -X- | -2- |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 goals | 2.7 | 3.42 | 2.97 |
| 2-3 goals | 2.32 | 4.21 | 3.01 |
| 4+ goals | 2.48 | 3.49 | 3.22 |
| Ov 1.5 | 2.38 | 3.93 | 3.08 |
| Un 1.5 | 2.7 | 3.42 | 2.97 |
| Ov 2.5 | 2.08 | 6.74 | 2.7 |
| Un 2.5 | 2.99 | 2.63 | 3.51 |
| Ov 3.5 | 2.48 | 3.49 | 3.22 |
| Un 3.5 | 2.44 | 3.89 | 3 |
| Goal-Goal | 2.83 | 2.77 | 3.5 |
| No Goal | 2.15 | 6.19 | 2.68 |
| G-G+Ov 2.5 | 2.21 | 5.47 | 2.74 |
| NG+Un 2.5 | 2.32 | 6.19 | 2.72 |
Go to Top
Aston Villa vs Leicester at 05 Dec 2021
In this article I will analyze the game between Aston Villa and Leicester for Premier League (England).| Odds | Home | Draw | Away | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | 2.37 | 3.5 | 3.05 | 1.88 | 1.98 |
| Ours | 2.08 | 3.7 | 4 | 2.01 | 1.99 |
| Value % | 5.88 | -1.54 | -7.79 | -3.44 | -0.25 |
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home (5.88 %) so let's further analyze the game.
Basic Data and latest results
Aston Villa
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 33 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 |
| Last 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 67 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| At Home | 3 | 1 | 3 | 48 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Dec | Man City | H | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 27 Nov | Crystal Palace | A | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 20 Nov | Brighton | H | 2 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 05 Nov | Southampton | A | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
| 31 Oct | West Ham | H | 1 | 4 | L | O | Gg |
| 22 Oct | Arsenal | A | 1 | 3 | L | O | Gg |
| 16 Oct | Wolves | H | 2 | 3 | L | O | Gg |
| 03 Oct | Tottenham | A | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
Leicester
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 44 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 |
| Last 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 44 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| At Away | 2 | 3 | 2 | 43 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 1 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Dec | Southampton | A | 2 | 2 | D | O | Gg |
| 28 Nov | Watford | H | 4 | 2 | W | O | Gg |
| 20 Nov | Chelsea | H | 0 | 3 | L | O | Ng |
| 07 Nov | Leeds | A | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 30 Oct | Arsenal | H | 0 | 2 | L | U | Ng |
| 24 Oct | Brentford | A | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 16 Oct | Man United | H | 4 | 2 | W | O | Gg |
| 03 Oct | Crystal Palace | A | 2 | 2 | D | O | Gg |
Playing style
| Aston Villa | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open play | 105 | 12 | 9.28 | 134 | 16 | 14.03 |
| From corner | 22 | 5 | 2.52 | 35 | 4 | 3.89 |
| Set piece | 21 | 0 | 0.86 | 10 | 2 | 2.33 |
| Direct Freekick | 7 | 0 | 0.36 | 11 | 1 | 0.59 |
| Penalty | 2 | 2 | 1.52 | 2 | 0 | 1.52 |
| Leicester | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open play | 131 | 16 | 14.58 | 160 | 14 | 14.51 |
| From corner | 25 | 3 | 2.34 | 37 | 6 | 5.97 |
| Set piece | 9 | 3 | 2.04 | 14 | 1 | 0.87 |
| Direct Freekick | 3 | 0 | 0.2 | 8 | 1 | 0.6 |
| Penalty | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2.28 |
| Aston Villa | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own goals | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Out of box | 62 | 5 | 1.82 | 72 | 5 | 2.81 |
| Penalty area | 84 | 11 | 9 | 103 | 12 | 13.35 |
| Six-yard box | 10 | 2 | 2.72 | 16 | 5 | 5.2 |
| Leicester | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own goals | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Out of box | 62 | 2 | 2.15 | 76 | 3 | 2.67 |
| Penalty area | 91 | 16 | 11.89 | 123 | 15 | 14.26 |
| Six-yard box | 15 | 4 | 5.12 | 22 | 6 | 6.31 |
| Aston Villa | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-15 | 22 | 2 | 1.48 | 39 | 5 | 3.86 |
| 16-30 | 18 | 0 | 1.97 | 28 | 3 | 3.15 |
| 31-45 | 27 | 1 | 1.87 | 29 | 3 | 2.15 |
| 46-60 | 28 | 3 | 1.67 | 34 | 3 | 3.72 |
| 61-75 | 26 | 7 | 4.06 | 26 | 2 | 2.48 |
| 76+ | 36 | 6 | 3.48 | 36 | 7 | 6.98 |
| Leicester | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-15 | 21 | 3 | 2.02 | 34 | 4 | 4.95 |
| 16-30 | 20 | 4 | 2.1 | 36 | 6 | 2.83 |
| 31-45 | 21 | 5 | 2.54 | 37 | 4 | 4.4 |
| 46-60 | 36 | 2 | 2.34 | 50 | 5 | 5.29 |
| 61-75 | 32 | 4 | 5.48 | 32 | 3 | 3.61 |
| 76+ | 38 | 4 | 4.67 | 33 | 3 | 3.16 |
Desicive Betting factors
| Factors | Aston Villa | Leicester |
|---|---|---|
| Form Score | -0.373 | 0 |
| Home/Away form | -0.237 | 0.067 |
| Off ability | 0.547 | 0.243 |
| Def ability | -0.591 | -1 |
Optimal equations estimations
The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:| Team | No-G | 1 gl | 2 gls | 3+ gls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 20% | 47% | -3% | 37% |
| Leicester | 36% | 36% | 18% | 10% |
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Aston Villa and the red line for guest team, Leicester.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Aston Villa to score 1.41 goals and Leicester to score 1.18 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.59 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.23 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Aston Villa to score 1.52 goals and Leicester to score 1.01 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and the home team Aston Villa to win by 0.51 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
| Goals | Odds | Goals | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.08 | 0-1 | 3.22 |
| 1 | 4.17 | 2-3 | 2.4 |
| 2 | 5.21 | 4+ | 3.66 |
| 3 | 4.44 | Ov 1.5 | 1.45 |
| 4 | 5.75 | Un 1.5 | 3.22 |
| 5 | 15.87 | Ov 2.5 | 2.01 |
| 6+ | 27.78 | Un 2.5 | 1.99 |
| Gg | 1.95 | Ov 3.5 | 3.66 |
| NoG | 2.05 | Un 3.5 | 1.37 |
| If game ends with | -1- | -X- | -2- |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 goals | 1.84 | 4.38 | 4.38 |
| 2-3 goals | 3.76 | 2.47 | 3.04 |
| 4+ goals | 1.36 | 9.1 | 6.5 |
| Ov 1.5 | 2.21 | 3.47 | 3.85 |
| Un 1.5 | 1.84 | 4.38 | 4.38 |
| Ov 2.5 | 1.54 | 16.6 | 3.46 |
| Un 2.5 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 4.75 |
| Ov 3.5 | 1.36 | 9.1 | 6.5 |
| Un 3.5 | 2.6 | 3.03 | 3.5 |
| Goal-Goal | 2.71 | 2.58 | 4.1 |
| No Goal | 1.67 | 6.87 | 3.9 |
| G-G+Ov 2.5 | 1.82 | 11.47 | 2.75 |
| NG+Un 2.5 | 2.13 | 6.87 | 3.15 |
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Tottenham vs Norwich at 05 Dec 2021
In this article I will analyze the game between Tottenham and Norwich for Premier League (England).| Odds | Home | Draw | Away | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | 1.41 | 4.75 | 8.2 | 1.85 | 2 |
| Ours | 1.53 | 4.57 | 7.75 | 2.16 | 1.86 |
| Value % | -5.56 | 0.83 | 0.71 | -7.76 | 3.76 |
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Draw, Away, Under (0.83 %, 0.71 %, 3.76 %) so let's further analyze the game.
Basic Data and latest results
Tottenham
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 56 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| Last 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 78 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| At Home | 5 | 0 | 2 | 71 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Dec | Brentford | H | 2 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 21 Nov | Leeds | H | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 07 Nov | Everton | A | 0 | 0 | D | U | Ng |
| 30 Oct | Man United | H | 0 | 3 | L | O | Ng |
| 24 Oct | West Ham | A | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
| 17 Oct | Newcastle | A | 3 | 2 | W | O | Gg |
| 03 Oct | Aston Villa | H | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 26 Sep | Arsenal | A | 1 | 3 | L | O | Gg |
Norwich
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 44 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 |
| Last 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 56 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| At Away | 1 | 2 | 4 | 24 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 4 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Nov | Newcastle | A | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 27 Nov | Wolves | H | 0 | 0 | D | U | Ng |
| 20 Nov | Southampton | H | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 06 Nov | Brentford | A | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 31 Oct | Leeds | H | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 23 Oct | Chelsea | A | 0 | 7 | L | O | Ng |
| 16 Oct | Brighton | H | 0 | 0 | D | U | Ng |
| 02 Oct | Burnley | A | 0 | 0 | D | U | Ng |
Playing style
| Tottenham | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open play | 93 | 9 | 12.56 | 130 | 12 | 14.85 |
| From corner | 25 | 1 | 2.75 | 39 | 3 | 2.06 |
| Direct Freekick | 9 | 1 | 0.53 | 4 | 0 | 0.23 |
| Set piece | 9 | 1 | 1.33 | 8 | 1 | 1.81 |
| Penalty | 1 | 1 | 0.76 | 1 | 1 | 0.76 |
| Norwich | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open play | 102 | 5 | 7.38 | 158 | 23 | 20.51 |
| From corner | 20 | 1 | 0.68 | 36 | 2 | 3.17 |
| Set piece | 14 | 0 | 1.89 | 9 | 0 | 0.32 |
| Direct Freekick | 13 | 0 | 0.85 | 4 | 0 | 0.24 |
| Penalty | 2 | 2 | 1.52 | 3 | 3 | 2.28 |
| Tottenham | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own goals | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Out of box | 55 | 3 | 1.93 | 64 | 1 | 1.85 |
| Penalty area | 64 | 5 | 8.97 | 107 | 12 | 11.72 |
| Six-yard box | 16 | 3 | 5.02 | 10 | 3 | 5.14 |
| Norwich | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own goals | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Out of box | 75 | 1 | 2.5 | 73 | 2 | 2.37 |
| Penalty area | 66 | 5 | 6.94 | 120 | 19 | 15.47 |
| Six-yard box | 10 | 2 | 2.88 | 15 | 5 | 6.69 |
| Tottenham | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-15 | 14 | 2 | 2.33 | 26 | 2 | 2.39 |
| 16-30 | 29 | 3 | 2.65 | 20 | 1 | 0.9 |
| 31-45 | 22 | 1 | 2.53 | 30 | 3 | 4.44 |
| 46-60 | 34 | 3 | 4.22 | 39 | 2 | 2.79 |
| 61-75 | 16 | 3 | 3.9 | 37 | 4 | 4.73 |
| 76+ | 22 | 1 | 2.3 | 30 | 5 | 4.46 |
| Norwich | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-15 | 17 | 2 | 0.78 | 33 | 4 | 4.23 |
| 16-30 | 18 | 1 | 1.92 | 27 | 5 | 3.93 |
| 31-45 | 27 | 2 | 2.79 | 35 | 1 | 2.43 |
| 46-60 | 31 | 1 | 2.29 | 37 | 5 | 4.1 |
| 61-75 | 23 | 0 | 1.69 | 32 | 8 | 4.68 |
| 76+ | 35 | 2 | 2.87 | 46 | 5 | 7.17 |
Desicive Betting factors
| Factors | Tottenham | Norwich |
|---|---|---|
| Form Score | 0.151 | 0.052 |
| Home/Away form | 0.336 | -0.333 |
| Off ability | -0.368 | 0.243 |
| Def ability | -0.13 | -0.63 |
Optimal equations estimations
The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:| Team | No-G | 1 gl | 2 gls | 3+ gls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham | 11% | 34% | 32% | 23% |
| Norwich | 48% | 34% | 13% | 5% |
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Tottenham and the red line for guest team, Norwich.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Tottenham to score 2.05 goals and Norwich to score 0.57 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.62 goals in the game and the home team Tottenham to win by 1.48 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Tottenham to score 1.68 goals and Norwich to score 0.74 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and the home team Tottenham to win by 0.94 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
| Goals | Odds | Goals | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.87 | 0-1 | 3.95 |
| 1 | 5 | 2-3 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 4+ | 5.24 |
| 3 | 3.7 | Ov 1.5 | 1.34 |
| 4 | 7.35 | Un 1.5 | 3.95 |
| 5 | 22.73 | Ov 2.5 | 2.17 |
| 6+ | 90.91 | Un 2.5 | 1.86 |
| Gg | 2.18 | Ov 3.5 | 5.24 |
| NoG | 1.85 | Un 3.5 | 1.24 |
| If game ends with | -1- | -X- | -2- |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 goals | 1.55 | 4.77 | 6.84 |
| 2-3 goals | 1.46 | 4.83 | 9.11 |
| 4+ goals | 1.77 | 3.67 | 6.16 |
| Ov 1.5 | 1.53 | 4.47 | 8.12 |
| Un 1.5 | 1.55 | 4.77 | 6.84 |
| Ov 2.5 | 1.39 | 8.87 | 5.91 |
| Un 2.5 | 1.68 | 3.21 | 10.57 |
| Ov 3.5 | 1.77 | 3.67 | 6.16 |
| Un 3.5 | 1.49 | 4.82 | 8.26 |
| Goal-Goal | 2.1 | 2.75 | 6.29 |
| No Goal | 1.25 | 10.21 | 9.66 |
| G-G+Ov 2.5 | 1.57 | 6.62 | 4.71 |
| NG+Un 2.5 | 1.33 | 10.21 | 8.31 |
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Everton vs Arsenal at 06 Dec 2021
In this article I will analyze the game between Everton and Arsenal for Premier League (England).| Odds | Home | Draw | Away | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | 3.42 | 3.55 | 2.17 | 2.05 | 1.82 |
| Ours | 2.34 | 3.68 | 3.32 | 2.13 | 1.88 |
| Value % | 13.5 | -1 | -15.96 | -1.83 | -1.75 |
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home (13.5 %) so let's further analyze the game.
Basic Data and latest results
Everton
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 |
| Last 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| At Home | 3 | 1 | 3 | 48 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Dec | Liverpool | H | 1 | 4 | L | O | Gg |
| 28 Nov | Brentford | A | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
| 21 Nov | Man City | A | 0 | 3 | L | O | Ng |
| 07 Nov | Tottenham | H | 0 | 0 | D | U | Ng |
| 01 Nov | Wolves | A | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 23 Oct | Watford | H | 2 | 5 | L | O | Gg |
| 17 Oct | West Ham | H | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
| 02 Oct | Man United | A | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
Arsenal
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 67 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Last 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 33 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| At Away | 2 | 1 | 4 | 33 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Dec | Man United | A | 2 | 3 | L | O | Gg |
| 27 Nov | Newcastle | H | 2 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 20 Nov | Liverpool | A | 0 | 4 | L | O | Ng |
| 07 Nov | Watford | H | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 30 Oct | Leicester | A | 2 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 22 Oct | Aston Villa | H | 3 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 18 Oct | Crystal Palace | H | 2 | 2 | D | O | Gg |
| 02 Oct | Brighton | A | 0 | 0 | D | U | Ng |
Playing style
| Everton | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open play | 135 | 12 | 12.75 | 129 | 16 | 15.19 |
| From corner | 20 | 2 | 2.18 | 30 | 5 | 3.55 |
| Set piece | 11 | 0 | 1.12 | 13 | 2 | 2.18 |
| Direct Freekick | 6 | 0 | 0.37 | 7 | 0 | 0.43 |
| Penalty | 3 | 3 | 2.28 | 1 | 1 | 0.76 |
| Arsenal | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open play | 142 | 10 | 13.16 | 153 | 17 | 19.03 |
| From corner | 37 | 5 | 3.71 | 30 | 0 | 1.93 |
| Set piece | 9 | 1 | 1.23 | 10 | 2 | 1.94 |
| Direct Freekick | 9 | 1 | 0.63 | 4 | 0 | 0.26 |
| Penalty | 2 | 0 | 1.52 | 1 | 1 | 0.76 |
| Everton | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own goals | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Out of box | 55 | 1 | 1.68 | 72 | 1 | 2.15 |
| Penalty area | 107 | 13 | 12.82 | 96 | 20 | 14.06 |
| Six-yard box | 13 | 3 | 4.2 | 11 | 2 | 4.91 |
| Arsenal | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Out of box | 78 | 3 | 2.32 | 73 | 2 | 2.5 |
| Penalty area | 103 | 8 | 12.21 | 106 | 11 | 13.09 |
| Six-yard box | 18 | 6 | 5.72 | 19 | 7 | 8.34 |
| Everton | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-15 | 18 | 1 | 1.69 | 26 | 2 | 3.32 |
| 16-30 | 24 | 2 | 2.99 | 32 | 4 | 4.52 |
| 31-45 | 30 | 2 | 2.15 | 26 | 4 | 2.51 |
| 46-60 | 37 | 4 | 4.7 | 27 | 2 | 3.45 |
| 61-75 | 31 | 6 | 3.38 | 26 | 6 | 4.34 |
| 76+ | 35 | 2 | 3.79 | 43 | 6 | 3.97 |
| Arsenal | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-15 | 35 | 4 | 3.47 | 17 | 3 | 2.36 |
| 16-30 | 25 | 4 | 2.54 | 32 | 1 | 1.67 |
| 31-45 | 26 | 1 | 3.47 | 27 | 4 | 3.77 |
| 46-60 | 34 | 5 | 3.68 | 44 | 4 | 3.15 |
| 61-75 | 43 | 2 | 4.22 | 32 | 4 | 6 |
| 76+ | 36 | 1 | 2.87 | 46 | 4 | 6.98 |
Desicive Betting factors
| Factors | Everton | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| Form Score | -0.968 | 0.259 |
| Home/Away form | -0.278 | -0.259 |
| Off ability | -0.474 | 0.591 |
| Def ability | -0.626 | -0.015 |
Optimal equations estimations
The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:| Team | No-G | 1 gl | 2 gls | 3+ gls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton | 23% | 36% | 25% | 16% |
| Arsenal | 33% | 36% | 19% | 12% |
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Everton and the red line for guest team, Arsenal.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Everton to score 1.01 goals and Arsenal to score 1.41 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and the guest team Arsenal to win by 0.4 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Everton to score 1.33 goals and Arsenal to score 1.11 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.22 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
| Goals | Odds | Goals | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.16 | 0-1 | 3.62 |
| 1 | 5 | 2-3 | 2.02 |
| 2 | 3.91 | 4+ | 4.39 |
| 3 | 4.18 | Ov 1.5 | 1.38 |
| 4 | 6.76 | Un 1.5 | 3.62 |
| 5 | 16.39 | Ov 2.5 | 2.14 |
| 6+ | 52.63 | Un 2.5 | 1.88 |
| Gg | 1.94 | Ov 3.5 | 4.39 |
| NoG | 2.07 | Un 3.5 | 1.3 |
| If game ends with | -1- | -X- | -2- |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 goals | 2.34 | 3.63 | 3.37 |
| 2-3 goals | 2.21 | 3.87 | 3.46 |
| 4+ goals | 2.68 | 3.35 | 3.04 |
| Ov 1.5 | 2.34 | 3.69 | 3.32 |
| Un 1.5 | 2.34 | 3.63 | 3.37 |
| Ov 2.5 | 2.07 | 6.87 | 2.7 |
| Un 2.5 | 2.65 | 2.61 | 4.19 |
| Ov 3.5 | 2.68 | 3.35 | 3.04 |
| Un 3.5 | 2.25 | 3.78 | 3.43 |
| Goal-Goal | 2.95 | 2.63 | 3.56 |
| No Goal | 1.92 | 6.36 | 3.12 |
| G-G+Ov 2.5 | 2.22 | 5.71 | 2.68 |
| NG+Un 2.5 | 2.01 | 6.36 | 3.18 |