Germany
In this article we will analyse the following games:
(with blue color are the value bets as estimated by the optimal equations method).
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Over (26.2 %, 0.96 %) so let's further analyze the game.
The next graph represents the shots attempted and recieved for the Union Berlin and RB Leipzig within a specific timeframe of the game. The black line is the average and you can interpret it as a Heat Indicator.
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Union Berlin and the red line for guest team, RB Leipzig.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Union Berlin to score 1.09 goals and RB Leipzig to score 1.61 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.7 goals in the game and the guest team RB Leipzig to win by 0.52 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Union Berlin to score 1.69 goals and RB Leipzig to score 1.08 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.77 goals in the game and the home team Union Berlin to win by 0.61 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios?
The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number!
Use it and get great odds for your choices!
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Draw, Under (21.23 %, 1.42 %, 14.27 %) so let's further analyze the game.
Thorgan Hazard is struggling with an ankle injury and Mateu Morey has a knee injury.
. Roman Burki will be the number two.
Goalkeeper Gregor Kobel has joined from Stuttgart to hopefully provide more security between the sticks. Borussia Dortmund have filled the gap left by Jadon Sancho by signing Donyell Malen from PSV Eindhoven. Youngsters Soumaila Coulibaly and Abdoulaye Kamara have both arrived from PSG.
Thomas Meunier and Julian Brandt both tested positive for COVID-19, while Marius Wolf has an ankle knock.
. Marco Roca is struggling with an ankle problem.
Omar Richards has joined from Championship club Reading, while former RB Leizpig defender Dayot Upamecano links up with Julian Nagelsmann again. Josip Stanisic may keep his spot at right-back as Benjamin Pavard is ruled out with a knee injury. French World Cup winners Lucas Hernandez and Corentin Tolisso are struggling with injury.
The next graph represents the shots attempted and recieved for the Dortmund and Bayern Munich within a specific timeframe of the game. The black line is the average and you can interpret it as a Heat Indicator.
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Dortmund and the red line for guest team, Bayern Munich.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Dortmund to score 1.32 goals and Bayern Munich to score 2.41 goals. So, they expect a total of 3.73 goals in the game and the guest team Bayern Munich to win by 1.09 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Dortmund to score 1.56 goals and Bayern Munich to score 1.19 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.75 goals in the game and the home team Dortmund to win by 0.37 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios?
The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number!
Use it and get great odds for your choices!
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Under (1.97 %, 3.18 %) so let's further analyze the game.
The next graph represents the shots attempted and recieved for the Hoffenheim and Ein Frankfurt within a specific timeframe of the game. The black line is the average and you can interpret it as a Heat Indicator.
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Hoffenheim and the red line for guest team, Ein Frankfurt.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Hoffenheim to score 1.84 goals and Ein Frankfurt to score 1.15 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.99 goals in the game and the home team Hoffenheim to win by 0.69 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Hoffenheim to score 1.66 goals and Ein Frankfurt to score 1.04 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.7 goals in the game and the home team Hoffenheim to win by 0.62 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios?
The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number!
Use it and get great odds for your choices!
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home (9.96 %) so let's further analyze the game.
The next graph represents the shots attempted and recieved for the Bielefeld and FC Koln within a specific timeframe of the game. The black line is the average and you can interpret it as a Heat Indicator.
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Bielefeld and the red line for guest team, FC Koln.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Bielefeld to score 1.12 goals and FC Koln to score 1.54 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.66 goals in the game and the guest team FC Koln to win by 0.42 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Bielefeld to score 1.41 goals and FC Koln to score 1.3 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.71 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.11 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios?
The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number!
Use it and get great odds for your choices!
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Over (4.88 %, 6.37 %) so let's further analyze the game.
The next graph represents the shots attempted and recieved for the Mainz and Wolfsburg within a specific timeframe of the game. The black line is the average and you can interpret it as a Heat Indicator.
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Mainz and the red line for guest team, Wolfsburg.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Mainz to score 1.24 goals and Wolfsburg to score 1.13 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.11 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Mainz to score 1.47 goals and Wolfsburg to score 1.21 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.68 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.26 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios?
The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number!
Use it and get great odds for your choices!
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Draw, Away (9.83 %, 8.68 %) so let's further analyze the game.
The next graph represents the shots attempted and recieved for the Leverkusen and Greuther Furth within a specific timeframe of the game. The black line is the average and you can interpret it as a Heat Indicator.
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Leverkusen and the red line for guest team, Greuther Furth.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Leverkusen to score 3.07 goals and Greuther Furth to score 0.56 goals. So, they expect a total of 3.62 goals in the game and the home team Leverkusen to win by 2.51 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Leverkusen to score 1.98 goals and Greuther Furth to score 1.25 goals. So, we expect a total of 3.23 goals in the game and the home team Leverkusen to win by 0.73 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios?
The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number!
Use it and get great odds for your choices!
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Draw, Away (0.35 %, 7.42 %) so let's further analyze the game.
The next graph represents the shots attempted and recieved for the M'gladbach and Freiburg within a specific timeframe of the game. The black line is the average and you can interpret it as a Heat Indicator.
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, M'gladbach and the red line for guest team, Freiburg.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) M'gladbach to score 1.76 goals and Freiburg to score 0.99 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.75 goals in the game and the home team M'gladbach to win by 0.77 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) M'gladbach to score 1.43 goals and Freiburg to score 1.26 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.69 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.17 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios?
The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number!
Use it and get great odds for your choices!
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Over (14.62 %, 7.89 %) so let's further analyze the game.
The next graph represents the shots attempted and recieved for the Stuttgart and Hertha within a specific timeframe of the game. The black line is the average and you can interpret it as a Heat Indicator.
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Stuttgart and the red line for guest team, Hertha.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Stuttgart to score 1.4 goals and Hertha to score 1.07 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and the home team Stuttgart to win by 0.33 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Stuttgart to score 1.78 goals and Hertha to score 0.99 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.77 goals in the game and the home team Stuttgart to win by 0.79 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios?
The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number!
Use it and get great odds for your choices!
| Teams | Date | Home | Draw | Away | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union Berlin - RB Leipzig | 03-Dec | 3.59 | 3.58 | 2.08 | 1.78 | 2.08 |
| Dortmund - Bayern Munich | 04-Dec | 3.99 | 4.32 | 1.81 | 1.3 | 3.49 |
| Hoffenheim - Ein Frankfurt | 04-Dec | 1.92 | 3.86 | 3.64 | 1.59 | 2.4 |
| Bielefeld - FC Koln | 04-Dec | 3.4 | 3.48 | 2.19 | 1.83 | 2.05 |
| Mainz - Wolfsburg | 04-Dec | 2.54 | 3.28 | 2.89 | 2.11 | 1.78 |
| Leverkusen - Greuther Furth | 04-Dec | 1.23 | 6.81 | 11.48 | 1.33 | 3.29 |
| M'gladbach - Freiburg | 05-Dec | 1.86 | 3.82 | 4.06 | 1.74 | 2.13 |
| Stuttgart - Hertha | 05-Dec | 2.28 | 3.33 | 3.33 | 1.99 | 1.87 |
Click here to view the mathematical predictions for today!
Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig at 03 Dec 2021
In this article I will analyze the game between Union Berlin and RB Leipzig for Bundesliga (Germany).| Odds | Home | Draw | Away | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | 3.59 | 3.58 | 2.08 | 1.78 | 2.08 |
| Ours | 1.85 | 4.05 | 4.69 | 1.75 | 2.34 |
| Value % | 26.2 | -3.24 | -26.75 | 0.96 | -5.34 |
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Over (26.2 %, 0.96 %) so let's further analyze the game.
Basic Data and latest results
Union Berlin
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 44 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| Last 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 44 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| At Home | 4 | 2 | 1 | 67 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Nov | Ein Frankfurt | A | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 20 Nov | Hertha | H | 2 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 07 Nov | FC Koln | A | 2 | 2 | D | O | Gg |
| 30 Oct | Bayern Munich | H | 2 | 5 | L | O | Gg |
| 24 Oct | Stuttgart | A | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 16 Oct | Wolfsburg | H | 2 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 03 Oct | Mainz | A | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 25 Sep | Bielefeld | H | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
RB Leipzig
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 44 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 3 |
| Last 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 33 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| At Away | 0 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Nov | Leverkusen | H | 1 | 3 | L | O | Gg |
| 20 Nov | Hoffenheim | A | 0 | 2 | L | U | Ng |
| 06 Nov | Dortmund | H | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 30 Oct | Ein Frankfurt | A | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 23 Oct | Greuther Furth | H | 4 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 16 Oct | Freiburg | A | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 02 Oct | Bochum | H | 3 | 0 | W | O | Ng |
| 25 Sep | Hertha | H | 6 | 0 | W | O | Ng |
Playing style
| Union Berlin | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open play | 106 | 16 | 12.99 | 124 | 15 | 13.86 |
| From corner | 25 | 2 | 2.36 | 26 | 2 | 1.6 |
| Set piece | 9 | 0 | 0.35 | 9 | 1 | 0.33 |
| Direct Freekick | 5 | 0 | 0.27 | 4 | 0 | 0.17 |
| Penalty | 2 | 2 | 1.52 | 1 | 1 | 0.76 |
| RB Leipzig | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open play | 132 | 14 | 17.27 | 108 | 11 | 15.49 |
| From corner | 31 | 3 | 3.83 | 28 | 2 | 2.69 |
| Set piece | 10 | 1 | 1.59 | 10 | 1 | 1.18 |
| Direct Freekick | 7 | 2 | 0.38 | 3 | 0 | 0.11 |
| Penalty | 5 | 4 | 3.79 | 2 | 2 | 1.52 |
| Union Berlin | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own goals | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Out of box | 47 | 3 | 1.55 | 53 | 2 | 1.54 |
| Penalty area | 86 | 12 | 11.37 | 99 | 14 | 10.56 |
| Six-yard box | 14 | 5 | 4.57 | 11 | 2 | 3.62 |
| RB Leipzig | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Out of box | 56 | 3 | 1.79 | 43 | 1 | 1.01 |
| Penalty area | 112 | 13 | 16.47 | 95 | 12 | 14.06 |
| Six-yard box | 17 | 8 | 8.6 | 13 | 3 | 5.92 |
| Union Berlin | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-15 | 25 | 4 | 2.75 | 20 | 5 | 2.91 |
| 16-30 | 20 | 3 | 1.53 | 26 | 4 | 3.47 |
| 31-45 | 21 | 3 | 2.39 | 33 | 2 | 3.9 |
| 46-60 | 26 | 3 | 3.9 | 25 | 2 | 2.16 |
| 61-75 | 29 | 4 | 4.38 | 17 | 0 | 1.04 |
| 76+ | 26 | 3 | 2.54 | 43 | 6 | 3.25 |
| RB Leipzig | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-15 | 31 | 1 | 2.83 | 29 | 3 | 4.29 |
| 16-30 | 33 | 2 | 5.22 | 15 | 1 | 0.88 |
| 31-45 | 25 | 5 | 4.44 | 22 | 2 | 3.2 |
| 46-60 | 30 | 5 | 3.94 | 28 | 5 | 4.8 |
| 61-75 | 34 | 8 | 5.43 | 16 | 3 | 1.27 |
| 76+ | 32 | 3 | 5 | 41 | 2 | 6.57 |
Desicive Betting factors
| Factors | Union Berlin | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| Form Score | -0.111 | -0.059 |
| Home/Away form | 0.336 | -0.444 |
| Off ability | 1 | 0.565 |
| Def ability | -0.243 | -1 |
Optimal equations estimations
The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:| Team | No-G | 1 gl | 2 gls | 3+ gls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union Berlin | 15% | 29% | 28% | 28% |
| RB Leipzig | 29% | 44% | 18% | 9% |
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Union Berlin and the red line for guest team, RB Leipzig.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Union Berlin to score 1.09 goals and RB Leipzig to score 1.61 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.7 goals in the game and the guest team RB Leipzig to win by 0.52 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Union Berlin to score 1.69 goals and RB Leipzig to score 1.08 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.77 goals in the game and the home team Union Berlin to win by 0.61 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
| Goals | Odds | Goals | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 22.73 | 0-1 | 5.15 |
| 1 | 6.67 | 2-3 | 1.98 |
| 2 | 4.26 | 4+ | 3.31 |
| 3 | 3.7 | Ov 1.5 | 1.24 |
| 4 | 5.03 | Un 1.5 | 5.15 |
| 5 | 12.99 | Ov 2.5 | 1.75 |
| 6+ | 38.46 | Un 2.5 | 2.33 |
| Gg | 1.66 | Ov 3.5 | 3.31 |
| NoG | 2.51 | Un 3.5 | 1.43 |
| If game ends with | -1- | -X- | -2- |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 goals | 2.31 | 4.41 | 2.94 |
| 2-3 goals | 1.77 | 4.01 | 5.37 |
| 4+ goals | 1.76 | 3.92 | 5.7 |
| Ov 1.5 | 1.77 | 3.98 | 5.49 |
| Un 1.5 | 2.31 | 4.41 | 2.94 |
| Ov 2.5 | 1.53 | 7.43 | 4.77 |
| Un 2.5 | 2.58 | 2.52 | 4.61 |
| Ov 3.5 | 1.76 | 3.92 | 5.7 |
| Un 3.5 | 1.89 | 4.11 | 4.37 |
| Goal-Goal | 2.05 | 2.97 | 5.69 |
| No Goal | 1.61 | 9.05 | 3.72 |
| G-G+Ov 2.5 | 1.62 | 6.19 | 4.5 |
| NG+Un 2.5 | 1.83 | 9.05 | 3.26 |
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Dortmund vs Bayern Munich at 04 Dec 2021
In this article I will analyze the game between Dortmund and Bayern Munich for Bundesliga (Germany).| Odds | Home | Draw | Away | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | 3.99 | 4.32 | 1.81 | 1.3 | 3.49 |
| Ours | 2.16 | 4.07 | 3.45 | 1.75 | 2.33 |
| Value % | 21.23 | 1.42 | -26.26 | -19.78 | 14.27 |
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Draw, Under (21.23 %, 1.42 %, 14.27 %) so let's further analyze the game.
Basic Data and latest results
Dortmund
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 83 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 1 |
| Last 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 67 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| At Home | 7 | 0 | 0 | 100 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 1 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Nov | Wolfsburg | A | 3 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 20 Nov | Stuttgart | H | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 06 Nov | RB Leipzig | A | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 30 Oct | FC Koln | H | 2 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 23 Oct | Bielefeld | A | 3 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 16 Oct | Mainz | H | 3 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 02 Oct | Augsburg | H | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 25 Sep | M'gladbach | A | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
Bayern Munich
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 83 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 1 |
| Last 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 67 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| At Away | 4 | 1 | 1 | 72 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 1 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Nov | Bielefeld | H | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 19 Nov | Augsburg | A | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 06 Nov | Freiburg | H | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 30 Oct | Union Berlin | A | 5 | 2 | W | O | Gg |
| 23 Oct | Hoffenheim | H | 4 | 0 | W | O | Ng |
| 17 Oct | Leverkusen | A | 5 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 03 Oct | Ein Frankfurt | H | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 24 Sep | Greuther Furth | A | 3 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
Possible Lineups
| Dortmund (4-4-2) | Bayern Munich (4-2-3-1) | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Pos | Player | Pos |
| Gregor Kobel | GK | Manuel Neuer | GK |
| Nico Schulz | DL | Alphonso Davies | DL |
| Mats Hummels | DC | Dayot Upamecano | DC |
| Manuel Akanji | DC | Niklas S?le | DC |
| Felix Passlack | DR | Josip Stanisic | DR |
| Giovanni Reyna | ML | Leon Goretzka | DMC |
| Jude Bellingham | MC | Joshua Kimmich | DMC |
| Mahmoud Dahoud | MC | Leroy San? | AML |
| Marco Reus | MR | Thomas M?ller | AMC |
| Donyell Malen | FW | Serge Gnabry | AMR |
| Erling Haaland | FW | Robert Lewandowski | FW |
Dortmund news and injuries
Antonios Papadopoulos is on standby to play in defence as Mats Hummels is still struggling with a foot injury. He is already settling in well and could make a starting debut.Thorgan Hazard is struggling with an ankle injury and Mateu Morey has a knee injury.
. Roman Burki will be the number two.
Goalkeeper Gregor Kobel has joined from Stuttgart to hopefully provide more security between the sticks. Borussia Dortmund have filled the gap left by Jadon Sancho by signing Donyell Malen from PSV Eindhoven. Youngsters Soumaila Coulibaly and Abdoulaye Kamara have both arrived from PSG.
Thomas Meunier and Julian Brandt both tested positive for COVID-19, while Marius Wolf has an ankle knock.
| Injured player | Status |
|---|---|
| Thorgan Hazard | Out |
| Mateu Morey | Out |
| Julian Brandt | Out |
| Thomas Meunier | Out |
| Mats Hummels | Doubtful |
| Marius Wolf | Doubtful |
Bayern Munich news and injuries
. Marco Roca is struggling with an ankle problem.
Omar Richards has joined from Championship club Reading, while former RB Leizpig defender Dayot Upamecano links up with Julian Nagelsmann again. Josip Stanisic may keep his spot at right-back as Benjamin Pavard is ruled out with a knee injury. French World Cup winners Lucas Hernandez and Corentin Tolisso are struggling with injury.
| Injured player | Status |
|---|---|
| Lucas Hern?ndez | Doubtful |
| Corentin Tolisso | Doubtful |
| Marc Roca | Doubtful |
Playing style
| Dortmund | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open play | 143 | 25 | 21.82 | 107 | 12 | 14.42 |
| From corner | 23 | 2 | 1.9 | 31 | 4 | 3.43 |
| Set piece | 11 | 0 | 1.09 | 6 | 0 | 0.64 |
| Direct Freekick | 10 | 1 | 0.56 | 7 | 1 | 0.48 |
| Penalty | 5 | 5 | 3.79 | 2 | 2 | 1.52 |
| Bayern Munich | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open play | 201 | 32 | 37.25 | 79 | 12 | 8.38 |
| From corner | 35 | 3 | 4.26 | 15 | 1 | 0.81 |
| Set piece | 11 | 4 | 2.23 | 10 | 0 | 0.51 |
| Direct Freekick | 4 | 1 | 0.2 | 5 | 0 | 0.3 |
| Penalty | 2 | 2 | 1.52 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dortmund | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own goals | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Out of box | 64 | 6 | 2.71 | 51 | 2 | 1.44 |
| Penalty area | 111 | 21 | 20 | 88 | 10 | 12.89 |
| Six-yard box | 15 | 4 | 4.46 | 13 | 6 | 5.15 |
| Bayern Munich | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own goals | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Out of box | 67 | 5 | 2.15 | 48 | 1 | 1.71 |
| Penalty area | 156 | 23 | 26.5 | 53 | 11 | 5.38 |
| Six-yard box | 28 | 12 | 14.81 | 8 | 1 | 2.9 |
| Dortmund | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-15 | 32 | 3 | 4.82 | 17 | 3 | 2.08 |
| 16-30 | 26 | 3 | 3.29 | 22 | 2 | 3.05 |
| 31-45 | 27 | 6 | 4.25 | 18 | 3 | 2.53 |
| 46-60 | 36 | 10 | 6.54 | 35 | 4 | 5.24 |
| 61-75 | 29 | 5 | 2.56 | 30 | 2 | 2.8 |
| 76+ | 42 | 6 | 7.71 | 31 | 5 | 4.78 |
| Bayern Munich | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-15 | 37 | 6 | 5.75 | 17 | 1 | 1.39 |
| 16-30 | 43 | 8 | 6.32 | 15 | 1 | 1 |
| 31-45 | 44 | 9 | 9.73 | 19 | 3 | 1 |
| 46-60 | 46 | 7 | 8.73 | 24 | 3 | 1.74 |
| 61-75 | 36 | 6 | 5.66 | 17 | 2 | 2.54 |
| 76+ | 47 | 6 | 9.27 | 17 | 3 | 2.34 |
Betting facts
- NA
Desicive Betting factors
| Factors | Dortmund | Bayern Munich |
|---|---|---|
| Form Score | 0.627 | 0.63 |
| Home/Away form | 1 | 0.504 |
| Off ability | 1 | 1 |
| Def ability | -0.626 | -0.311 |
Optimal equations estimations
The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:| Team | No-G | 1 gl | 2 gls | 3+ gls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dortmund | 23% | 33% | 8% | 36% |
| Bayern Munich | 35% | 26% | 22% | 16% |
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Dortmund and the red line for guest team, Bayern Munich.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Dortmund to score 1.32 goals and Bayern Munich to score 2.41 goals. So, they expect a total of 3.73 goals in the game and the guest team Bayern Munich to win by 1.09 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Dortmund to score 1.56 goals and Bayern Munich to score 1.19 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.75 goals in the game and the home team Dortmund to win by 0.37 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
| Goals | Odds | Goals | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 0-1 | 3.82 |
| 1 | 5.56 | 2-3 | 2.36 |
| 2 | 5.99 | 4+ | 3.18 |
| 3 | 3.89 | Ov 1.5 | 1.36 |
| 4 | 6.02 | Un 1.5 | 3.82 |
| 5 | 11.11 | Ov 2.5 | 1.75 |
| 6+ | 17.24 | Un 2.5 | 2.33 |
| Gg | 2.02 | Ov 3.5 | 3.18 |
| NoG | 1.98 | Un 3.5 | 1.46 |
| If game ends with | -1- | -X- | -2- |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 goals | 2.22 | 3.2 | 4.23 |
| 2-3 goals | 2.42 | 4.82 | 2.63 |
| 4+ goals | 1.84 | 4.19 | 4.62 |
| Ov 1.5 | 2.13 | 4.53 | 3.22 |
| Un 1.5 | 2.22 | 3.2 | 4.23 |
| Ov 2.5 | 1.8 | 7.61 | 3.21 |
| Un 2.5 | 2.94 | 2.52 | 3.8 |
| Ov 3.5 | 1.84 | 4.19 | 4.62 |
| Un 3.5 | 2.34 | 4.04 | 3.08 |
| Goal-Goal | 2.58 | 3.04 | 3.54 |
| No Goal | 1.86 | 6.16 | 3.34 |
| G-G+Ov 2.5 | 2.12 | 5.43 | 2.91 |
| NG+Un 2.5 | 2.34 | 6.16 | 3.02 |
Go to Top
Hoffenheim vs Ein Frankfurt at 04 Dec 2021
In this article I will analyze the game between Hoffenheim and Ein Frankfurt for Bundesliga (Germany).| Odds | Home | Draw | Away | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | 1.92 | 3.86 | 3.64 | 1.59 | 2.4 |
| Ours | 1.85 | 4.15 | 4.59 | 1.81 | 2.23 |
| Value % | 1.97 | -1.81 | -5.69 | -7.64 | 3.18 |
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Under (1.97 %, 3.18 %) so let's further analyze the game.
Basic Data and latest results
Hoffenheim
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 67 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Last 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 67 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| At Home | 4 | 1 | 1 | 72 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Nov | Greuther Furth | A | 6 | 3 | W | O | Gg |
| 20 Nov | RB Leipzig | H | 2 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 06 Nov | Bochum | A | 0 | 2 | L | U | Ng |
| 29 Oct | Hertha | H | 2 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 23 Oct | Bayern Munich | A | 0 | 4 | L | O | Ng |
| 15 Oct | FC Koln | H | 5 | 0 | W | O | Ng |
| 02 Oct | Stuttgart | A | 1 | 3 | L | O | Gg |
| 25 Sep | Wolfsburg | H | 3 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
Ein Frankfurt
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 56 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
| Last 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 100 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| At Away | 3 | 2 | 2 | 52 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 4 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Nov | Union Berlin | H | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 21 Nov | Freiburg | A | 2 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 07 Nov | Greuther Furth | A | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 30 Oct | RB Leipzig | H | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 24 Oct | Bochum | A | 0 | 2 | L | U | Ng |
| 16 Oct | Hertha | H | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 03 Oct | Bayern Munich | A | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 25 Sep | FC Koln | H | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
Playing style
| Hoffenheim | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open play | 128 | 20 | 19.84 | 114 | 18 | 14.01 |
| From corner | 30 | 6 | 4.25 | 24 | 2 | 2.16 |
| Set piece | 8 | 1 | 1.08 | 12 | 0 | 0.95 |
| Direct Freekick | 5 | 0 | 0.35 | 4 | 0 | 0.31 |
| Penalty | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.76 |
| Ein Frankfurt | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open play | 110 | 10 | 11.25 | 137 | 12 | 19.5 |
| From corner | 31 | 3 | 2.14 | 25 | 3 | 3.31 |
| Set piece | 9 | 1 | 0.8 | 8 | 0 | 0.4 |
| Direct Freekick | 5 | 1 | 0.31 | 7 | 0 | 0.53 |
| Penalty | 2 | 1 | 1.52 | 1 | 1 | 0.76 |
| Hoffenheim | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own goals | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Out of box | 45 | 2 | 1.41 | 48 | 3 | 1.59 |
| Penalty area | 108 | 17 | 16.01 | 99 | 15 | 13.57 |
| Six-yard box | 17 | 7 | 7.11 | 8 | 2 | 3.02 |
| Ein Frankfurt | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own goals | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Out of box | 64 | 2 | 2.01 | 55 | 2 | 2.21 |
| Penalty area | 83 | 9 | 10.42 | 104 | 9 | 14.88 |
| Six-yard box | 9 | 4 | 2.57 | 19 | 5 | 7.41 |
| Hoffenheim | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-15 | 25 | 2 | 2.86 | 28 | 2 | 3.81 |
| 16-30 | 25 | 3 | 3.1 | 31 | 5 | 2.26 |
| 31-45 | 26 | 4 | 3.19 | 22 | 1 | 2.38 |
| 46-60 | 33 | 5 | 4.94 | 22 | 3 | 1.5 |
| 61-75 | 25 | 5 | 4.68 | 22 | 3 | 3.33 |
| 76+ | 37 | 8 | 6.78 | 30 | 6 | 4.89 |
| Ein Frankfurt | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-15 | 14 | 0 | 1.47 | 22 | 3 | 3.73 |
| 16-30 | 23 | 3 | 2.92 | 22 | 2 | 3.32 |
| 31-45 | 22 | 4 | 2.73 | 31 | 3 | 4.51 |
| 46-60 | 31 | 1 | 2.5 | 33 | 1 | 3.1 |
| 61-75 | 32 | 1 | 2.71 | 34 | 4 | 4.68 |
| 76+ | 35 | 7 | 3.68 | 36 | 3 | 5.16 |
Desicive Betting factors
| Factors | Hoffenheim | Ein Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|
| Form Score | 0.31 | 0.274 |
| Home/Away form | 0.477 | 0.259 |
| Off ability | 0.084 | 0.652 |
| Def ability | 0.13 | -0.63 |
Optimal equations estimations
The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:| Team | No-G | 1 gl | 2 gls | 3+ gls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim | 16% | 30% | 26% | 28% |
| Ein Frankfurt | 36% | 35% | 19% | 10% |
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Hoffenheim and the red line for guest team, Ein Frankfurt.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Hoffenheim to score 1.84 goals and Ein Frankfurt to score 1.15 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.99 goals in the game and the home team Hoffenheim to win by 0.69 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Hoffenheim to score 1.66 goals and Ein Frankfurt to score 1.04 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.7 goals in the game and the home team Hoffenheim to win by 0.62 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
| Goals | Odds | Goals | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.24 | 0-1 | 4.5 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 2-3 | 2.04 |
| 2 | 4.41 | 4+ | 3.47 |
| 3 | 3.79 | Ov 1.5 | 1.28 |
| 4 | 5.59 | Un 1.5 | 4.5 |
| 5 | 12.5 | Ov 2.5 | 1.81 |
| 6+ | 34.48 | Un 2.5 | 2.23 |
| Gg | 1.86 | Ov 3.5 | 3.47 |
| NoG | 2.16 | Un 3.5 | 1.4 |
| If game ends with | -1- | -X- | -2- |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 goals | 2.09 | 3.83 | 3.83 |
| 2-3 goals | 1.74 | 4.68 | 4.72 |
| 4+ goals | 1.87 | 3.74 | 5.05 |
| Ov 1.5 | 1.79 | 4.28 | 4.84 |
| Un 1.5 | 2.09 | 3.83 | 3.83 |
| Ov 2.5 | 1.6 | 7.17 | 4.25 |
| Un 2.5 | 2.28 | 2.75 | 5.04 |
| Ov 3.5 | 1.87 | 3.74 | 5.05 |
| Un 3.5 | 1.84 | 4.37 | 4.4 |
| Goal-Goal | 2.21 | 2.96 | 4.77 |
| No Goal | 1.55 | 7.97 | 4.36 |
| G-G+Ov 2.5 | 1.78 | 5.64 | 3.84 |
| NG+Un 2.5 | 1.75 | 7.97 | 3.87 |
Go to Top
Bielefeld vs FC Koln at 04 Dec 2021
In this article I will analyze the game between Bielefeld and FC Koln for Bundesliga (Germany).| Odds | Home | Draw | Away | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | 3.4 | 3.48 | 2.19 | 1.83 | 2.05 |
| Ours | 2.54 | 3.77 | 2.93 | 1.84 | 2.19 |
| Value % | 9.96 | -2.21 | -11.53 | -0.3 | -3.12 |
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home (9.96 %) so let's further analyze the game.
Basic Data and latest results
Bielefeld
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 28 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
| Last 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 44 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| At Home | 0 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Nov | Bayern Munich | A | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
| 20 Nov | Wolfsburg | H | 2 | 2 | D | O | Gg |
| 06 Nov | Stuttgart | A | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 30 Oct | Mainz | H | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 23 Oct | Dortmund | H | 1 | 3 | L | O | Gg |
| 17 Oct | Augsburg | A | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 03 Oct | Leverkusen | H | 0 | 4 | L | O | Ng |
| 25 Sep | Union Berlin | A | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
FC Koln
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 33 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 |
| Last 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 56 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| At Away | 0 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 4 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Nov | M'gladbach | H | 4 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 21 Nov | Mainz | A | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 07 Nov | Union Berlin | H | 2 | 2 | D | O | Gg |
| 30 Oct | Dortmund | A | 0 | 2 | L | U | Ng |
| 24 Oct | Leverkusen | H | 2 | 2 | D | O | Gg |
| 15 Oct | Hoffenheim | A | 0 | 5 | L | O | Ng |
| 01 Oct | Greuther Furth | H | 3 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 25 Sep | Ein Frankfurt | A | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
Playing style
| Bielefeld | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open play | 108 | 7 | 7.82 | 158 | 14 | 19.08 |
| From corner | 24 | 0 | 0.91 | 28 | 2 | 2.98 |
| Set piece | 15 | 0 | 0.61 | 11 | 0 | 1.2 |
| Direct Freekick | 3 | 0 | 0.18 | 4 | 0 | 0.24 |
| Penalty | 2 | 2 | 1.52 | 3 | 3 | 2.27 |
| FC Koln | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open play | 160 | 19 | 17.38 | 111 | 18 | 18.93 |
| From corner | 21 | 2 | 2.94 | 25 | 3 | 1.89 |
| Set piece | 17 | 1 | 1.13 | 10 | 1 | 1.87 |
| Direct Freekick | 3 | 0 | 0.15 | 7 | 0 | 0.41 |
| Bielefeld | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Out of box | 76 | 2 | 2.02 | 63 | 3 | 2.05 |
| Penalty area | 68 | 7 | 8.07 | 125 | 13 | 19.7 |
| Six-yard box | 8 | 0 | 0.94 | 16 | 3 | 4.02 |
| FC Koln | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own goals | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Out of box | 71 | 1 | 1.88 | 44 | 1 | 1.7 |
| Penalty area | 107 | 14 | 11.6 | 92 | 13 | 13.31 |
| Six-yard box | 23 | 7 | 8.11 | 16 | 7 | 7.09 |
| Bielefeld | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-15 | 24 | 1 | 1.81 | 28 | 0 | 3.65 |
| 16-30 | 18 | 1 | 0.93 | 36 | 6 | 5.37 |
| 31-45 | 26 | 2 | 1.43 | 41 | 2 | 6.91 |
| 46-60 | 32 | 2 | 2.98 | 34 | 2 | 3.45 |
| 61-75 | 17 | 0 | 0.95 | 28 | 7 | 2.61 |
| 76+ | 35 | 3 | 2.93 | 37 | 2 | 3.79 |
| FC Koln | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-15 | 28 | 2 | 3.11 | 26 | 4 | 3.5 |
| 16-30 | 36 | 0 | 2.86 | 23 | 2 | 2.74 |
| 31-45 | 37 | 2 | 3.34 | 16 | 3 | 2.26 |
| 46-60 | 46 | 8 | 5.72 | 23 | 5 | 5.65 |
| 61-75 | 24 | 2 | 1.76 | 32 | 5 | 3.6 |
| 76+ | 30 | 8 | 4.8 | 33 | 3 | 5.35 |
Desicive Betting factors
| Factors | Bielefeld | FC Koln |
|---|---|---|
| Form Score | -0.429 | -0.096 |
| Home/Away form | -0.693 | -0.459 |
| Off ability | 0.442 | 0.304 |
| Def ability | -0.591 | -1 |
Optimal equations estimations
The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:| Team | No-G | 1 gl | 2 gls | 3+ gls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bielefeld | 23% | 33% | 23% | 21% |
| FC Koln | 24% | 38% | 22% | 16% |
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Bielefeld and the red line for guest team, FC Koln.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Bielefeld to score 1.12 goals and FC Koln to score 1.54 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.66 goals in the game and the guest team FC Koln to win by 0.42 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Bielefeld to score 1.41 goals and FC Koln to score 1.3 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.71 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.11 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
| Goals | Odds | Goals | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.54 | 0-1 | 4.42 |
| 1 | 5.92 | 2-3 | 2.1 |
| 2 | 4.33 | 4+ | 3.36 |
| 3 | 4.08 | Ov 1.5 | 1.29 |
| 4 | 5.49 | Un 1.5 | 4.42 |
| 5 | 12.2 | Ov 2.5 | 1.84 |
| 6+ | 29.41 | Un 2.5 | 2.19 |
| Gg | 1.72 | Ov 3.5 | 3.36 |
| NoG | 2.38 | Un 3.5 | 1.42 |
| If game ends with | -1- | -X- | -2- |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 goals | 2.79 | 3.96 | 2.57 |
| 2-3 goals | 2.51 | 3.81 | 2.96 |
| 4+ goals | 2.42 | 3.59 | 3.24 |
| Ov 1.5 | 2.47 | 3.72 | 3.06 |
| Un 1.5 | 2.79 | 3.96 | 2.57 |
| Ov 2.5 | 2.1 | 6.54 | 2.69 |
| Un 2.5 | 3.36 | 2.51 | 3.29 |
| Ov 3.5 | 2.42 | 3.59 | 3.24 |
| Un 3.5 | 2.59 | 3.86 | 2.82 |
| Goal-Goal | 2.79 | 2.79 | 3.54 |
| No Goal | 2.26 | 7.37 | 2.37 |
| G-G+Ov 2.5 | 2.19 | 5.48 | 2.77 |
| NG+Un 2.5 | 2.44 | 7.37 | 2.39 |
Go to Top
Mainz vs Wolfsburg at 04 Dec 2021
In this article I will analyze the game between Mainz and Wolfsburg for Bundesliga (Germany).| Odds | Home | Draw | Away | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | 2.54 | 3.28 | 2.89 | 2.11 | 1.78 |
| Ours | 2.26 | 3.77 | 3.42 | 1.86 | 2.17 |
| Value % | 4.88 | -3.96 | -5.36 | 6.37 | -10.1 |
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Over (4.88 %, 6.37 %) so let's further analyze the game.
Basic Data and latest results
Mainz
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 44 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 |
| Last 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| At Home | 3 | 3 | 1 | 57 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Nov | Stuttgart | A | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 21 Nov | FC Koln | H | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 05 Nov | M'gladbach | H | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 30 Oct | Bielefeld | A | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 22 Oct | Augsburg | H | 4 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 16 Oct | Dortmund | A | 1 | 3 | L | O | Gg |
| 03 Oct | Union Berlin | H | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 25 Sep | Leverkusen | A | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
Wolfsburg
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 39 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
| Last 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 44 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| At Away | 3 | 1 | 2 | 56 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Nov | Dortmund | H | 1 | 3 | L | O | Gg |
| 20 Nov | Bielefeld | A | 2 | 2 | D | O | Gg |
| 06 Nov | Augsburg | H | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 30 Oct | Leverkusen | A | 2 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 23 Oct | Freiburg | H | 0 | 2 | L | U | Ng |
| 16 Oct | Union Berlin | A | 0 | 2 | L | U | Ng |
| 02 Oct | M'gladbach | H | 1 | 3 | L | O | Gg |
| 25 Sep | Hoffenheim | A | 1 | 3 | L | O | Gg |
Playing style
| Mainz | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open play | 124 | 15 | 14.6 | 102 | 12 | 8.99 |
| From corner | 32 | 2 | 3.44 | 21 | 0 | 1.96 |
| Set piece | 19 | 0 | 1.94 | 10 | 1 | 0.72 |
| Direct Freekick | 6 | 0 | 0.26 | 6 | 0 | 0.32 |
| Penalty | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.76 |
| Wolfsburg | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open play | 122 | 13 | 13.75 | 78 | 10 | 8.13 |
| From corner | 25 | 1 | 2.61 | 28 | 1 | 2.06 |
| Set piece | 10 | 0 | 0.56 | 18 | 3 | 3.84 |
| Direct Freekick | 7 | 0 | 0.51 | 10 | 0 | 0.66 |
| Penalty | 2 | 1 | 1.52 | 5 | 3 | 3.79 |
| Mainz | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Out of box | 62 | 0 | 1.71 | 55 | 0 | 1.69 |
| Penalty area | 105 | 14 | 13.13 | 81 | 14 | 9.86 |
| Six-yard box | 14 | 3 | 5.39 | 4 | 0 | 1.2 |
| Wolfsburg | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Out of box | 54 | 1 | 1.79 | 62 | 1 | 1.95 |
| Penalty area | 93 | 10 | 10.88 | 65 | 10 | 11.05 |
| Six-yard box | 19 | 4 | 6.27 | 12 | 6 | 5.46 |
| Mainz | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-15 | 32 | 4 | 3.62 | 27 | 1 | 1.5 |
| 16-30 | 27 | 4 | 2.97 | 19 | 2 | 1.8 |
| 31-45 | 32 | 3 | 4.85 | 23 | 2 | 2.16 |
| 46-60 | 28 | 0 | 3.35 | 34 | 4 | 3.94 |
| 61-75 | 21 | 3 | 1.62 | 18 | 4 | 1.68 |
| 76+ | 41 | 3 | 3.82 | 19 | 1 | 1.67 |
| Wolfsburg | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-15 | 28 | 3 | 3.63 | 21 | 3 | 2.4 |
| 16-30 | 26 | 3 | 2.82 | 18 | 1 | 2.19 |
| 31-45 | 25 | 0 | 1.1 | 19 | 2 | 2.38 |
| 46-60 | 33 | 3 | 5.5 | 23 | 5 | 3.44 |
| 61-75 | 23 | 4 | 2.58 | 22 | 2 | 1.81 |
| 76+ | 31 | 2 | 3.31 | 36 | 4 | 6.26 |
Desicive Betting factors
| Factors | Mainz | Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| Form Score | -0.095 | -0.148 |
| Home/Away form | 0.12 | 0.17 |
| Off ability | 1 | 0.33 |
| Def ability | -1 | -0.333 |
Optimal equations estimations
The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:| Team | No-G | 1 gl | 2 gls | 3+ gls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainz | 20% | 32% | 30% | 18% |
| Wolfsburg | 26% | 40% | 20% | 13% |
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Mainz and the red line for guest team, Wolfsburg.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Mainz to score 1.24 goals and Wolfsburg to score 1.13 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.11 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Mainz to score 1.47 goals and Wolfsburg to score 1.21 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.68 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.26 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
| Goals | Odds | Goals | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.23 | 0-1 | 4.67 |
| 1 | 6.17 | 2-3 | 1.97 |
| 2 | 4.05 | 4+ | 3.57 |
| 3 | 3.85 | Ov 1.5 | 1.27 |
| 4 | 5.62 | Un 1.5 | 4.67 |
| 5 | 12.82 | Ov 2.5 | 1.85 |
| 6+ | 41.67 | Un 2.5 | 2.17 |
| Gg | 1.68 | Ov 3.5 | 3.57 |
| NoG | 2.46 | Un 3.5 | 1.39 |
| If game ends with | -1- | -X- | -2- |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 goals | 2.58 | 4.12 | 2.71 |
| 2-3 goals | 2.04 | 3.96 | 3.87 |
| 4+ goals | 2.48 | 3.29 | 3.41 |
| Ov 1.5 | 2.18 | 3.69 | 3.69 |
| Un 1.5 | 2.58 | 4.12 | 2.71 |
| Ov 2.5 | 1.91 | 6.35 | 3.12 |
| Un 2.5 | 2.85 | 2.56 | 3.87 |
| Ov 3.5 | 2.48 | 3.29 | 3.41 |
| Un 3.5 | 2.18 | 4.01 | 3.43 |
| Goal-Goal | 2.54 | 2.79 | 4.04 |
| No Goal | 1.94 | 7.83 | 2.81 |
| G-G+Ov 2.5 | 1.99 | 5.48 | 3.17 |
| NG+Un 2.5 | 2.06 | 7.83 | 2.8 |
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Leverkusen vs Greuther Furth at 04 Dec 2021
In this article I will analyze the game between Leverkusen and Greuther Furth for Bundesliga (Germany).| Odds | Home | Draw | Away | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | 1.23 | 6.81 | 11.48 | 1.33 | 3.29 |
| Ours | 1.72 | 4.08 | 5.75 | 1.43 | 3.33 |
| Value % | -23.16 | 9.83 | 8.68 | -5.26 | -0.37 |
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Draw, Away (9.83 %, 8.68 %) so let's further analyze the game.
Basic Data and latest results
Leverkusen
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 44 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
| Last 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 78 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| At Home | 3 | 0 | 3 | 50 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Nov | RB Leipzig | A | 3 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 20 Nov | Bochum | H | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 07 Nov | Hertha | A | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 30 Oct | Wolfsburg | H | 0 | 2 | L | U | Ng |
| 24 Oct | FC Koln | A | 2 | 2 | D | O | Gg |
| 17 Oct | Bayern Munich | H | 1 | 5 | L | O | Gg |
| 03 Oct | Bielefeld | A | 4 | 0 | W | O | Ng |
| 25 Sep | Mainz | H | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
Greuther Furth
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 1 |
| Last 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| At Away | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 0 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Nov | Hoffenheim | H | 3 | 6 | L | O | Gg |
| 20 Nov | M'gladbach | A | 0 | 4 | L | O | Ng |
| 07 Nov | Ein Frankfurt | H | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 30 Oct | Freiburg | A | 1 | 3 | L | O | Gg |
| 23 Oct | RB Leipzig | A | 1 | 4 | L | O | Gg |
| 16 Oct | Bochum | H | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
| 01 Oct | FC Koln | A | 1 | 3 | L | O | Gg |
| 24 Sep | Bayern Munich | H | 1 | 3 | L | O | Gg |
Playing style
| Leverkusen | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open play | 123 | 24 | 17.37 | 149 | 13 | 12.72 |
| From corner | 21 | 2 | 1.99 | 22 | 0 | 1.52 |
| Direct Freekick | 6 | 0 | 0.3 | 3 | 1 | 0.12 |
| Set piece | 5 | 1 | 0.72 | 18 | 3 | 2.5 |
| Penalty | 2 | 1 | 1.52 | 3 | 1 | 2.27 |
| Greuther Furth | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open play | 106 | 7 | 9.87 | 145 | 26 | 19.21 |
| From corner | 16 | 1 | 1.55 | 44 | 8 | 6.15 |
| Set piece | 16 | 0 | 1.34 | 11 | 2 | 2.97 |
| Penalty | 3 | 3 | 2.27 | 3 | 3 | 2.27 |
| Direct Freekick | 2 | 0 | 0.18 | 2 | 0 | 0.1 |
| Leverkusen | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own goals | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Out of box | 46 | 2 | 1.9 | 78 | 2 | 2.16 |
| Penalty area | 101 | 21 | 14.54 | 101 | 10 | 12.1 |
| Six-yard box | 7 | 2 | 2.45 | 16 | 6 | 4.87 |
| Greuther Furth | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own goals | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Out of box | 51 | 0 | 1.33 | 68 | 3 | 2.4 |
| Penalty area | 78 | 9 | 9.92 | 119 | 25 | 18.79 |
| Six-yard box | 14 | 2 | 3.97 | 14 | 7 | 5.51 |
| Leverkusen | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-15 | 29 | 9 | 5.66 | 33 | 2 | 2.76 |
| 16-30 | 24 | 5 | 3.72 | 30 | 2 | 2.13 |
| 31-45 | 22 | 2 | 1.67 | 29 | 6 | 4.41 |
| 46-60 | 29 | 4 | 2.94 | 37 | 3 | 4.16 |
| 61-75 | 23 | 4 | 2.84 | 31 | 3 | 1.82 |
| 76+ | 30 | 4 | 5.05 | 35 | 2 | 3.86 |
| Greuther Furth | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-15 | 25 | 1 | 1.72 | 24 | 4 | 2.45 |
| 16-30 | 12 | 1 | 0.46 | 24 | 5 | 2.83 |
| 31-45 | 23 | 2 | 4.55 | 38 | 7 | 4.04 |
| 46-60 | 32 | 2 | 3.13 | 48 | 8 | 7.38 |
| 61-75 | 21 | 2 | 1.51 | 33 | 6 | 5.74 |
| 76+ | 30 | 3 | 3.83 | 38 | 9 | 8.27 |
Desicive Betting factors
| Factors | Leverkusen | Greuther Furth |
|---|---|---|
| Form Score | 0.024 | -1 |
| Home/Away form | -0.178 | -1 |
| Off ability | 0.547 | 0.243 |
| Def ability | -0.565 | -1 |
Optimal equations estimations
The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:| Team | No-G | 1 gl | 2 gls | 3+ gls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leverkusen | 11% | 24% | 20% | 44% |
| Greuther Furth | 2% | 77% | 16% | 6% |
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Leverkusen and the red line for guest team, Greuther Furth.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Leverkusen to score 3.07 goals and Greuther Furth to score 0.56 goals. So, they expect a total of 3.62 goals in the game and the home team Leverkusen to win by 2.51 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Leverkusen to score 1.98 goals and Greuther Furth to score 1.25 goals. So, we expect a total of 3.23 goals in the game and the home team Leverkusen to win by 0.73 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
| Goals | Odds | Goals | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 500 | 0-1 | 10.75 |
| 1 | 10.99 | 2-3 | 2.42 |
| 2 | 4.85 | 4+ | 2.03 |
| 3 | 4.81 | Ov 1.5 | 1.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | Un 1.5 | 10.75 |
| 5 | 12.35 | Ov 2.5 | 1.43 |
| 6+ | 38.46 | Un 2.5 | 3.34 |
| Gg | 1.15 | Ov 3.5 | 2.03 |
| NoG | 7.69 | Un 3.5 | 1.97 |
| If game ends with | -1- | -X- | -2- |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 goals | 18.6 | 46.5 | 1.08 |
| 2-3 goals | 2.46 | 2.24 | 6.79 |
| 4+ goals | 1.2 | 8.63 | 18.92 |
| Ov 1.5 | 1.57 | 3.74 | 10.41 |
| Un 1.5 | 18.6 | 46.5 | 1.08 |
| Ov 2.5 | 1.22 | 12.28 | 10 |
| Un 2.5 | 33.22 | 1.6 | 2.9 |
| Ov 3.5 | 1.2 | 8.63 | 18.92 |
| Un 3.5 | 2.93 | 2.71 | 3.45 |
| Goal-Goal | 1.54 | 3.59 | 13.79 |
| No Goal | 7.22 | 65 | 1.18 |
| G-G+Ov 2.5 | 1.21 | 12 | 10.86 |
| NG+Un 2.5 | 12.67 | 65 | 1.11 |
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M'gladbach vs Freiburg at 05 Dec 2021
In this article I will analyze the game between M'gladbach and Freiburg for Bundesliga (Germany).| Odds | Home | Draw | Away | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | 1.86 | 3.82 | 4.06 | 1.74 | 2.13 |
| Ours | 2.42 | 3.77 | 3.12 | 1.85 | 2.17 |
| Value % | -12.44 | 0.35 | 7.42 | -3.42 | -0.87 |
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Draw, Away (0.35 %, 7.42 %) so let's further analyze the game.
Basic Data and latest results
M'gladbach
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 44 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
| Last 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 44 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| At Home | 4 | 2 | 0 | 78 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Nov | FC Koln | A | 1 | 4 | L | O | Gg |
| 20 Nov | Greuther Furth | H | 4 | 0 | W | O | Ng |
| 05 Nov | Mainz | A | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 31 Oct | Bochum | H | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 23 Oct | Hertha | A | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
| 16 Oct | Stuttgart | H | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 02 Oct | Wolfsburg | A | 3 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 25 Sep | Dortmund | H | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
Freiburg
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 39 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
| Last 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| At Away | 3 | 2 | 2 | 52 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Nov | Bochum | A | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 21 Nov | Ein Frankfurt | H | 0 | 2 | L | U | Ng |
| 06 Nov | Bayern Munich | A | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 30 Oct | Greuther Furth | H | 3 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 23 Oct | Wolfsburg | A | 2 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 16 Oct | RB Leipzig | H | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 02 Oct | Hertha | A | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 26 Sep | Augsburg | H | 3 | 0 | W | O | Ng |
Playing style
| M'gladbach | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open play | 142 | 16 | 16.15 | 113 | 16 | 13.54 |
| From corner | 43 | 1 | 3.11 | 27 | 1 | 2.25 |
| Set piece | 13 | 1 | 1.79 | 10 | 0 | 1.05 |
| Direct Freekick | 7 | 0 | 0.61 | 4 | 1 | 0.22 |
| Penalty | 2 | 0 | 1.52 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Freiburg | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open play | 109 | 10 | 14.16 | 139 | 11 | 15.88 |
| From corner | 38 | 4 | 2.23 | 26 | 0 | 1.59 |
| Set piece | 21 | 2 | 4.2 | 15 | 0 | 0.4 |
| Direct Freekick | 6 | 1 | 0.34 | 6 | 1 | 0.26 |
| Penalty | 2 | 2 | 1.52 | 1 | 1 | 0.76 |
| M'gladbach | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own goals | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Out of box | 77 | 3 | 2.8 | 47 | 3 | 1.31 |
| Penalty area | 117 | 14 | 15.82 | 87 | 12 | 9.34 |
| Six-yard box | 13 | 1 | 4.56 | 19 | 2 | 5.41 |
| Freiburg | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own goals | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Out of box | 57 | 1 | 1.77 | 83 | 2 | 2.3 |
| Penalty area | 101 | 10 | 13.83 | 96 | 8 | 12.47 |
| Six-yard box | 16 | 6 | 4.84 | 7 | 2 | 3.12 |
| M'gladbach | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-15 | 33 | 5 | 4.11 | 20 | 3 | 1.93 |
| 16-30 | 26 | 1 | 1.88 | 22 | 2 | 2.18 |
| 31-45 | 39 | 6 | 5.13 | 26 | 3 | 4.24 |
| 46-60 | 31 | 1 | 2.82 | 27 | 3 | 2.96 |
| 61-75 | 40 | 3 | 3.1 | 27 | 1 | 2.46 |
| 76+ | 38 | 2 | 6.15 | 32 | 6 | 3.29 |
| Freiburg | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-15 | 28 | 4 | 2.9 | 26 | 0 | 1.92 |
| 16-30 | 28 | 5 | 5.06 | 30 | 1 | 2.59 |
| 31-45 | 25 | 2 | 3.5 | 36 | 5 | 3.9 |
| 46-60 | 30 | 2 | 3.03 | 38 | 3 | 5.1 |
| 61-75 | 33 | 2 | 4.11 | 30 | 3 | 3.32 |
| 76+ | 32 | 4 | 3.84 | 27 | 1 | 2.06 |
Desicive Betting factors
| Factors | M'gladbach | Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| Form Score | -0.071 | -0.244 |
| Home/Away form | 0.61 | 0.119 |
| Off ability | 0.579 | 0.565 |
| Def ability | -0.565 | -0.704 |
Optimal equations estimations
The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:| Team | No-G | 1 gl | 2 gls | 3+ gls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M'gladbach | 22% | 33% | 26% | 19% |
| Freiburg | 25% | 38% | 21% | 15% |
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, M'gladbach and the red line for guest team, Freiburg.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) M'gladbach to score 1.76 goals and Freiburg to score 0.99 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.75 goals in the game and the home team M'gladbach to win by 0.77 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) M'gladbach to score 1.43 goals and Freiburg to score 1.26 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.69 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.17 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
| Goals | Odds | Goals | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.86 | 0-1 | 4.48 |
| 1 | 5.99 | 2-3 | 2.05 |
| 2 | 4.22 | 4+ | 3.48 |
| 3 | 3.98 | Ov 1.5 | 1.29 |
| 4 | 5.62 | Un 1.5 | 4.48 |
| 5 | 12.5 | Ov 2.5 | 1.86 |
| 6+ | 34.48 | Un 2.5 | 2.17 |
| Gg | 1.72 | Ov 3.5 | 3.48 |
| NoG | 2.4 | Un 3.5 | 1.41 |
| If game ends with | -1- | -X- | -2- |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 goals | 2.69 | 3.98 | 2.65 |
| 2-3 goals | 2.27 | 3.9 | 3.3 |
| 4+ goals | 2.5 | 3.42 | 3.26 |
| Ov 1.5 | 2.35 | 3.71 | 3.28 |
| Un 1.5 | 2.69 | 3.98 | 2.65 |
| Ov 2.5 | 2.04 | 6.4 | 2.83 |
| Un 2.5 | 3.09 | 2.54 | 3.54 |
| Ov 3.5 | 2.5 | 3.42 | 3.26 |
| Un 3.5 | 2.39 | 3.93 | 3.06 |
| Goal-Goal | 2.7 | 2.78 | 3.7 |
| No Goal | 2.11 | 7.45 | 2.56 |
| G-G+Ov 2.5 | 2.12 | 5.43 | 2.9 |
| NG+Un 2.5 | 2.25 | 7.45 | 2.58 |
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Stuttgart vs Hertha at 05 Dec 2021
In this article I will analyze the game between Stuttgart and Hertha for Bundesliga (Germany).| Odds | Home | Draw | Away | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | 2.28 | 3.33 | 3.33 | 1.99 | 1.87 |
| Ours | 1.71 | 4.39 | 5.35 | 1.72 | 2.39 |
| Value % | 14.62 | -7.25 | -11.34 | 7.89 | -11.63 |
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Over (14.62 %, 7.89 %) so let's further analyze the game.
Basic Data and latest results
Stuttgart
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 28 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 3 |
| Last 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 33 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| At Home | 3 | 1 | 3 | 48 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 2 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Nov | Mainz | H | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 20 Nov | Dortmund | A | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 06 Nov | Bielefeld | H | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
| 31 Oct | Augsburg | A | 1 | 4 | L | O | Gg |
| 24 Oct | Union Berlin | H | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 16 Oct | M'gladbach | A | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 02 Oct | Hoffenheim | H | 3 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 26 Sep | Bochum | A | 0 | 0 | D | U | Ng |
Hertha
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 44 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 5 |
| Last 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| At Away | 2 | 0 | 5 | 29 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 2 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Nov | Augsburg | H | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 20 Nov | Union Berlin | A | 0 | 2 | L | U | Ng |
| 07 Nov | Leverkusen | H | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 29 Oct | Hoffenheim | A | 0 | 2 | L | U | Ng |
| 23 Oct | M'gladbach | H | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 16 Oct | Ein Frankfurt | A | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 02 Oct | Freiburg | H | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 25 Sep | RB Leipzig | A | 0 | 6 | L | O | Ng |
Playing style
| Stuttgart | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open play | 118 | 13 | 11.19 | 162 | 15 | 14.85 |
| From corner | 32 | 3 | 2.49 | 33 | 5 | 2.88 |
| Set piece | 7 | 1 | 1.29 | 10 | 1 | 1.98 |
| Direct Freekick | 4 | 0 | 0.27 | 7 | 1 | 0.41 |
| Penalty | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.76 |
| Hertha | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open play | 87 | 9 | 10.51 | 118 | 17 | 14 |
| From corner | 23 | 2 | 2.03 | 32 | 4 | 3.23 |
| Set piece | 11 | 1 | 2.14 | 15 | 2 | 1.91 |
| Direct Freekick | 7 | 0 | 0.51 | 7 | 1 | 0.4 |
| Penalty | 1 | 1 | 0.76 | 3 | 3 | 2.27 |
| Stuttgart | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Out of box | 59 | 2 | 2.01 | 89 | 5 | 2.76 |
| Penalty area | 91 | 13 | 9.84 | 98 | 10 | 10.51 |
| Six-yard box | 11 | 2 | 3.39 | 26 | 8 | 7.62 |
| Hertha | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own goals | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Out of box | 47 | 1 | 1.76 | 51 | 1 | 1.46 |
| Penalty area | 71 | 6 | 8.09 | 113 | 19 | 15.45 |
| Six-yard box | 10 | 5 | 5.09 | 11 | 7 | 4.9 |
| Stuttgart | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-15 | 23 | 2 | 1.76 | 37 | 3 | 2.22 |
| 16-30 | 20 | 3 | 1.73 | 38 | 5 | 3.94 |
| 31-45 | 31 | 3 | 4.28 | 31 | 4 | 3.34 |
| 46-60 | 32 | 5 | 3.05 | 40 | 3 | 3.1 |
| 61-75 | 20 | 2 | 1.46 | 33 | 3 | 3.95 |
| 76+ | 35 | 2 | 2.95 | 34 | 5 | 4.35 |
| Hertha | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-15 | 21 | 2 | 3.44 | 26 | 3 | 2.08 |
| 16-30 | 16 | 0 | 1.14 | 30 | 4 | 4.02 |
| 31-45 | 22 | 5 | 3.51 | 27 | 3 | 3.26 |
| 46-60 | 17 | 2 | 2.07 | 32 | 7 | 5.92 |
| 61-75 | 20 | 2 | 1.8 | 27 | 3 | 1.98 |
| 76+ | 33 | 2 | 3.98 | 33 | 7 | 4.55 |
Desicive Betting factors
| Factors | Stuttgart | Hertha |
|---|---|---|
| Form Score | -0.413 | -0.059 |
| Home/Away form | -0.154 | -0.407 |
| Off ability | 0.505 | 0.191 |
| Def ability | -1 | -0.704 |
Optimal equations estimations
The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:| Team | No-G | 1 gl | 2 gls | 3+ gls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stuttgart | 14% | 28% | 21% | 36% |
| Hertha | 36% | 37% | 18% | 9% |
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Stuttgart and the red line for guest team, Hertha.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Stuttgart to score 1.4 goals and Hertha to score 1.07 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and the home team Stuttgart to win by 0.33 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Stuttgart to score 1.78 goals and Hertha to score 0.99 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.77 goals in the game and the home team Stuttgart to win by 0.79 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
| Goals | Odds | Goals | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.87 | 0-1 | 4.76 |
| 1 | 6.37 | 2-3 | 2.08 |
| 2 | 4.81 | 4+ | 3.24 |
| 3 | 3.66 | Ov 1.5 | 1.27 |
| 4 | 5.13 | Un 1.5 | 4.76 |
| 5 | 12.05 | Ov 2.5 | 1.72 |
| 6+ | 32.26 | Un 2.5 | 2.39 |
| Gg | 1.84 | Ov 3.5 | 3.24 |
| NoG | 2.19 | Un 3.5 | 1.45 |
| If game ends with | -1- | -X- | -2- |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 goals | 2.04 | 3.96 | 3.89 |
| 2-3 goals | 1.68 | 4.58 | 5.34 |
| 4+ goals | 1.58 | 4.48 | 7.02 |
| Ov 1.5 | 1.64 | 4.54 | 5.9 |
| Un 1.5 | 2.04 | 3.96 | 3.89 |
| Ov 2.5 | 1.44 | 8.43 | 5.39 |
| Un 2.5 | 2.32 | 2.65 | 5.22 |
| Ov 3.5 | 1.58 | 4.48 | 7.02 |
| Un 3.5 | 1.78 | 4.37 | 4.8 |
| Goal-Goal | 1.98 | 3.13 | 5.73 |
| No Goal | 1.47 | 8.6 | 4.9 |
| G-G+Ov 2.5 | 1.6 | 6.36 | 4.62 |
| NG+Un 2.5 | 1.74 | 8.6 | 3.91 |