Football – Germany

Germany
In this article we will analyse the following games: (with blue color are the value bets as estimated by the optimal equations method).
TeamsDateHomeDrawAwayOverUnder
Union Berlin - RB Leipzig03-Dec3.593.582.081.782.08
Dortmund - Bayern Munich04-Dec3.994.321.811.33.49
Hoffenheim - Ein Frankfurt04-Dec1.923.863.641.592.4
Bielefeld - FC Koln04-Dec3.43.482.191.832.05
Mainz - Wolfsburg04-Dec2.543.282.892.111.78
Leverkusen - Greuther Furth04-Dec1.236.8111.481.333.29
M'gladbach - Freiburg05-Dec1.863.824.061.742.13
Stuttgart - Hertha05-Dec2.283.333.331.991.87

Click here to view the mathematical predictions for today!


Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig at 03 Dec 2021

In this article I will analyze the game between Union Berlin and RB Leipzig for Bundesliga (Germany).
OddsHomeDrawAwayOverUnder
Book3.593.582.081.782.08
Ours1.854.054.691.752.34
Value %26.2-3.24-26.750.96-5.34

According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Over (26.2 %, 0.96 %) so let's further analyze the game.


Basic Data and latest results

Union Berlin
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6222446433
Last 3111443221
At Home421676325
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
28 NovEin FrankfurtA12LOGg
20 NovHerthaH20WUNg
07 NovFC KolnA22DOGg
30 OctBayern MunichH25LOGg
24 OctStuttgartA11DUGg
16 OctWolfsburgH20WUNg
03 OctMainzA21WOGg
25 SepBielefeldH10WUNg
RB Leipzig
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6222445633
Last 3102332321
At Away033173606
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
28 NovLeverkusenH13LOGg
20 NovHoffenheimA02LUNg
06 NovDortmundH21WOGg
30 OctEin FrankfurtA11DUGg
23 OctGreuther FurthH41WOGg
16 OctFreiburgA11DUGg
02 OctBochumH30WONg
25 SepHerthaH60WONg

Playing style

Union BerlinShGxGShAGAxGA
Open play1061612.991241513.86
From corner2522.362621.6
Set piece900.35910.33
Direct Freekick500.27400.17
Penalty221.52110.76
RB LeipzigShGxGShAGAxGA
Open play1321417.271081115.49
From corner3133.832822.69
Set piece1011.591011.18
Direct Freekick720.38300.11
Penalty543.79221.52
Union BerlinShGxGShAGAxGA
Own goals000111
Out of box4731.555321.54
Penalty area861211.37991410.56
Six-yard box1454.571123.62
RB LeipzigShGxGShAGAxGA
Out of box5631.794311.01
Penalty area1121316.47951214.06
Six-yard box1788.61335.92
Union BerlinShGxGShAGAxGA
1-152542.752052.91
16-302031.532643.47
31-452132.393323.9
46-602633.92522.16
61-752944.381701.04
76+2632.544363.25
RB LeipzigShGxGShAGAxGA
1-153112.832934.29
16-303325.221510.88
31-452554.442223.2
46-603053.942854.8
61-753485.431631.27
76+32354126.57
The next graph represents the shots attempted and recieved for the Union Berlin and RB Leipzig within a specific timeframe of the game. The black line is the average and you can interpret it as a Heat Indicator.

Desicive Betting factors

FactorsUnion BerlinRB Leipzig
Form Score-0.111-0.059
Home/Away form0.336-0.444
Off ability10.565
Def ability-0.243-1


Optimal equations estimations

The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:
TeamNo-G1 gl2 gls3+ gls
Union Berlin15%29%28%28%
RB Leipzig29%44%18%9%

The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Union Berlin and the red line for guest team, RB Leipzig.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Union Berlin to score 1.09 goals and RB Leipzig to score 1.61 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.7 goals in the game and the guest team RB Leipzig to win by 0.52 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Union Berlin to score 1.69 goals and RB Leipzig to score 1.08 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.77 goals in the game and the home team Union Berlin to win by 0.61 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
GoalsOddsGoalsOdds
022.730-15.15
16.672-31.98
24.264+3.31
33.7Ov 1.51.24
45.03Un 1.55.15
512.99Ov 2.51.75
6+38.46Un 2.52.33
Gg1.66Ov 3.53.31
NoG2.51Un 3.51.43
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios? The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number! Use it and get great odds for your choices!
If game ends with-1--X--2-
0-1 goals2.314.412.94
2-3 goals1.774.015.37
4+ goals1.763.925.7
Ov 1.51.773.985.49
Un 1.52.314.412.94
Ov 2.51.537.434.77
Un 2.52.582.524.61
Ov 3.51.763.925.7
Un 3.51.894.114.37
Goal-Goal2.052.975.69
No Goal1.619.053.72
G-G+Ov 2.51.626.194.5
NG+Un 2.51.839.053.26

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Dortmund vs Bayern Munich at 04 Dec 2021

In this article I will analyze the game between Dortmund and Bayern Munich for Bundesliga (Germany).
OddsHomeDrawAwayOverUnder
Book3.994.321.811.33.49
Ours2.164.073.451.752.33
Value %21.231.42-26.26-19.7814.27

According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Draw, Under (21.23 %, 1.42 %, 14.27 %) so let's further analyze the game.


Basic Data and latest results

Dortmund
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6501836551
Last 3201673330
At Home7001007661
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
27 NovWolfsburgA31WOGg
20 NovStuttgartH21WOGg
06 NovRB LeipzigA12LOGg
30 OctFC KolnH20WUNg
23 OctBielefeldA31WOGg
16 OctMainzH31WOGg
02 OctAugsburgH21WOGg
25 SepM'gladbachA01LUNg
Bayern Munich
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6501836451
Last 3201673221
At Away411726651
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
27 NovBielefeldH10WUNg
19 NovAugsburgA12LOGg
06 NovFreiburgH21WOGg
30 OctUnion BerlinA52WOGg
23 OctHoffenheimH40WONg
17 OctLeverkusenA51WOGg
03 OctEin FrankfurtH12LOGg
24 SepGreuther FurthA31WOGg
Possible Lineups
Dortmund (4-4-2)Bayern Munich (4-2-3-1)
PlayerPosPlayerPos
Gregor KobelGKManuel NeuerGK
Nico SchulzDLAlphonso DaviesDL
Mats HummelsDCDayot UpamecanoDC
Manuel AkanjiDCNiklas S?leDC
Felix PasslackDRJosip StanisicDR
Giovanni ReynaMLLeon GoretzkaDMC
Jude BellinghamMCJoshua KimmichDMC
Mahmoud DahoudMCLeroy San?AML
Marco ReusMRThomas M?llerAMC
Donyell MalenFWSerge GnabryAMR
Erling HaalandFWRobert LewandowskiFW
Dortmund news and injuries
Antonios Papadopoulos is on standby to play in defence as Mats Hummels is still struggling with a foot injury. He is already settling in well and could make a starting debut.
Thorgan Hazard is struggling with an ankle injury and Mateu Morey has a knee injury.
. Roman Burki will be the number two.
Goalkeeper Gregor Kobel has joined from Stuttgart to hopefully provide more security between the sticks. Borussia Dortmund have filled the gap left by Jadon Sancho by signing Donyell Malen from PSV Eindhoven. Youngsters Soumaila Coulibaly and Abdoulaye Kamara have both arrived from PSG.
Thomas Meunier and Julian Brandt both tested positive for COVID-19, while Marius Wolf has an ankle knock.
Injured playerStatus
Thorgan HazardOut
Mateu MoreyOut
Julian BrandtOut
Thomas MeunierOut
Mats HummelsDoubtful
Marius WolfDoubtful
Bayern Munich news and injuries

. Marco Roca is struggling with an ankle problem.
Omar Richards has joined from Championship club Reading, while former RB Leizpig defender Dayot Upamecano links up with Julian Nagelsmann again. Josip Stanisic may keep his spot at right-back as Benjamin Pavard is ruled out with a knee injury. French World Cup winners Lucas Hernandez and Corentin Tolisso are struggling with injury.
Injured playerStatus
Lucas Hern?ndezDoubtful
Corentin TolissoDoubtful
Marc RocaDoubtful

Playing style

DortmundShGxGShAGAxGA
Open play1432521.821071214.42
From corner2321.93143.43
Set piece1101.09600.64
Direct Freekick1010.56710.48
Penalty553.79221.52
Bayern MunichShGxGShAGAxGA
Open play2013237.2579128.38
From corner3534.261510.81
Set piece1142.231000.51
Direct Freekick410.2500.3
Penalty221.52000
DortmundShGxGShAGAxGA
Own goals222111
Out of box6462.715121.44
Penalty area1112120881012.89
Six-yard box1544.461365.15
Bayern MunichShGxGShAGAxGA
Own goals222000
Out of box6752.154811.71
Penalty area1562326.553115.38
Six-yard box281214.81812.9
DortmundShGxGShAGAxGA
1-153234.821732.08
16-302633.292223.05
31-452764.251832.53
46-6036106.543545.24
61-752952.563022.8
76+4267.713154.78
Bayern MunichShGxGShAGAxGA
1-153765.751711.39
16-304386.321511
31-454499.731931
46-604678.732431.74
61-753665.661722.54
76+4769.271732.34
The next graph represents the shots attempted and recieved for the Dortmund and Bayern Munich within a specific timeframe of the game. The black line is the average and you can interpret it as a Heat Indicator.

Betting facts

  • NA

Desicive Betting factors

FactorsDortmundBayern Munich
Form Score0.6270.63
Home/Away form10.504
Off ability11
Def ability-0.626-0.311


Optimal equations estimations

The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:
TeamNo-G1 gl2 gls3+ gls
Dortmund23%33%8%36%
Bayern Munich35%26%22%16%

The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Dortmund and the red line for guest team, Bayern Munich.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Dortmund to score 1.32 goals and Bayern Munich to score 2.41 goals. So, they expect a total of 3.73 goals in the game and the guest team Bayern Munich to win by 1.09 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Dortmund to score 1.56 goals and Bayern Munich to score 1.19 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.75 goals in the game and the home team Dortmund to win by 0.37 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
GoalsOddsGoalsOdds
012.20-13.82
15.562-32.36
25.994+3.18
33.89Ov 1.51.36
46.02Un 1.53.82
511.11Ov 2.51.75
6+17.24Un 2.52.33
Gg2.02Ov 3.53.18
NoG1.98Un 3.51.46
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios? The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number! Use it and get great odds for your choices!
If game ends with-1--X--2-
0-1 goals2.223.24.23
2-3 goals2.424.822.63
4+ goals1.844.194.62
Ov 1.52.134.533.22
Un 1.52.223.24.23
Ov 2.51.87.613.21
Un 2.52.942.523.8
Ov 3.51.844.194.62
Un 3.52.344.043.08
Goal-Goal2.583.043.54
No Goal1.866.163.34
G-G+Ov 2.52.125.432.91
NG+Un 2.52.346.163.02

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Hoffenheim vs Ein Frankfurt at 04 Dec 2021

In this article I will analyze the game between Hoffenheim and Ein Frankfurt for Bundesliga (Germany).
OddsHomeDrawAwayOverUnder
Book1.923.863.641.592.4
Ours1.854.154.591.812.23
Value %1.97-1.81-5.69-7.643.18

According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Under (1.97 %, 3.18 %) so let's further analyze the game.


Basic Data and latest results

Hoffenheim
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6402674333
Last 3201672212
At Home411725333
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
27 NovGreuther FurthA63WOGg
20 NovRB LeipzigH20WUNg
06 NovBochumA02LUNg
29 OctHerthaH20WUNg
23 OctBayern MunichA04LONg
15 OctFC KolnH50WONg
02 OctStuttgartA13LOGg
25 SepWolfsburgH31WOGg
Ein Frankfurt
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6312565533
Last 33001003221
At Away322526634
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
28 NovUnion BerlinH21WOGg
21 NovFreiburgA20WUNg
07 NovGreuther FurthA21WOGg
30 OctRB LeipzigH11DUGg
24 OctBochumA02LUNg
16 OctHerthaH12LOGg
03 OctBayern MunichA21WOGg
25 SepFC KolnH11DUGg

Playing style

HoffenheimShGxGShAGAxGA
Open play1282019.841141814.01
From corner3064.252422.16
Set piece811.081200.95
Direct Freekick500.35400.31
Penalty000100.76
Ein FrankfurtShGxGShAGAxGA
Open play1101011.251371219.5
From corner3132.142533.31
Set piece910.8800.4
Direct Freekick510.31700.53
Penalty211.52110.76
HoffenheimShGxGShAGAxGA
Own goals111000
Out of box4521.414831.59
Penalty area1081716.01991513.57
Six-yard box1777.11823.02
Ein FrankfurtShGxGShAGAxGA
Own goals111000
Out of box6422.015522.21
Penalty area83910.42104914.88
Six-yard box942.571957.41
HoffenheimShGxGShAGAxGA
1-152522.862823.81
16-302533.13152.26
31-452643.192212.38
46-603354.942231.5
61-752554.682233.33
76+3786.783064.89
Ein FrankfurtShGxGShAGAxGA
1-151401.472233.73
16-302332.922223.32
31-452242.733134.51
46-603112.53313.1
61-753212.713444.68
76+3573.683635.16
The next graph represents the shots attempted and recieved for the Hoffenheim and Ein Frankfurt within a specific timeframe of the game. The black line is the average and you can interpret it as a Heat Indicator.

Desicive Betting factors

FactorsHoffenheimEin Frankfurt
Form Score0.310.274
Home/Away form0.4770.259
Off ability0.0840.652
Def ability0.13-0.63


Optimal equations estimations

The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:
TeamNo-G1 gl2 gls3+ gls
Hoffenheim16%30%26%28%
Ein Frankfurt36%35%19%10%

The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Hoffenheim and the red line for guest team, Ein Frankfurt.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Hoffenheim to score 1.84 goals and Ein Frankfurt to score 1.15 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.99 goals in the game and the home team Hoffenheim to win by 0.69 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Hoffenheim to score 1.66 goals and Ein Frankfurt to score 1.04 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.7 goals in the game and the home team Hoffenheim to win by 0.62 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
GoalsOddsGoalsOdds
017.240-14.5
16.12-32.04
24.414+3.47
33.79Ov 1.51.28
45.59Un 1.54.5
512.5Ov 2.51.81
6+34.48Un 2.52.23
Gg1.86Ov 3.53.47
NoG2.16Un 3.51.4
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios? The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number! Use it and get great odds for your choices!
If game ends with-1--X--2-
0-1 goals2.093.833.83
2-3 goals1.744.684.72
4+ goals1.873.745.05
Ov 1.51.794.284.84
Un 1.52.093.833.83
Ov 2.51.67.174.25
Un 2.52.282.755.04
Ov 3.51.873.745.05
Un 3.51.844.374.4
Goal-Goal2.212.964.77
No Goal1.557.974.36
G-G+Ov 2.51.785.643.84
NG+Un 2.51.757.973.87

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Bielefeld vs FC Koln at 04 Dec 2021

In this article I will analyze the game between Bielefeld and FC Koln for Bundesliga (Germany).
OddsHomeDrawAwayOverUnder
Book3.43.482.191.832.05
Ours2.543.772.931.842.19
Value %9.96-2.21-11.53-0.3-3.12

According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home (9.96 %) so let's further analyze the game.


Basic Data and latest results

Bielefeld
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6123285533
Last 3111442212
At Home043194543
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
27 NovBayern MunichA01LUNg
20 NovWolfsburgH22DOGg
06 NovStuttgartA10WUNg
30 OctMainzH12LOGg
23 OctDortmundH13LOGg
17 OctAugsburgA11DUGg
03 OctLeverkusenH04LONg
25 SepUnion BerlinA01LUNg
FC Koln
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6132334642
Last 3120563321
At Away033174624
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
27 NovM'gladbachH41WOGg
21 NovMainzA11DUGg
07 NovUnion BerlinH22DOGg
30 OctDortmundA02LUNg
24 OctLeverkusenH22DOGg
15 OctHoffenheimA05LONg
01 OctGreuther FurthH31WOGg
25 SepEin FrankfurtA11DUGg

Playing style

BielefeldShGxGShAGAxGA
Open play10877.821581419.08
From corner2400.912822.98
Set piece1500.611101.2
Direct Freekick300.18400.24
Penalty221.52332.27
FC KolnShGxGShAGAxGA
Open play1601917.381111818.93
From corner2122.942531.89
Set piece1711.131011.87
Direct Freekick300.15700.41
BielefeldShGxGShAGAxGA
Out of box7622.026332.05
Penalty area6878.071251319.7
Six-yard box800.941634.02
FC KolnShGxGShAGAxGA
Own goals000111
Out of box7111.884411.7
Penalty area1071411.6921313.31
Six-yard box2378.111677.09
BielefeldShGxGShAGAxGA
1-152411.812803.65
16-301810.933665.37
31-452621.434126.91
46-603222.983423.45
61-751700.952872.61
76+3532.933723.79
FC KolnShGxGShAGAxGA
1-152823.112643.5
16-303602.862322.74
31-453723.341632.26
46-604685.722355.65
61-752421.763253.6
76+3084.83335.35
The next graph represents the shots attempted and recieved for the Bielefeld and FC Koln within a specific timeframe of the game. The black line is the average and you can interpret it as a Heat Indicator.

Desicive Betting factors

FactorsBielefeldFC Koln
Form Score-0.429-0.096
Home/Away form-0.693-0.459
Off ability0.4420.304
Def ability-0.591-1


Optimal equations estimations

The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:
TeamNo-G1 gl2 gls3+ gls
Bielefeld23%33%23%21%
FC Koln24%38%22%16%

The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Bielefeld and the red line for guest team, FC Koln.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Bielefeld to score 1.12 goals and FC Koln to score 1.54 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.66 goals in the game and the guest team FC Koln to win by 0.42 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Bielefeld to score 1.41 goals and FC Koln to score 1.3 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.71 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.11 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
GoalsOddsGoalsOdds
017.540-14.42
15.922-32.1
24.334+3.36
34.08Ov 1.51.29
45.49Un 1.54.42
512.2Ov 2.51.84
6+29.41Un 2.52.19
Gg1.72Ov 3.53.36
NoG2.38Un 3.51.42
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios? The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number! Use it and get great odds for your choices!
If game ends with-1--X--2-
0-1 goals2.793.962.57
2-3 goals2.513.812.96
4+ goals2.423.593.24
Ov 1.52.473.723.06
Un 1.52.793.962.57
Ov 2.52.16.542.69
Un 2.53.362.513.29
Ov 3.52.423.593.24
Un 3.52.593.862.82
Goal-Goal2.792.793.54
No Goal2.267.372.37
G-G+Ov 2.52.195.482.77
NG+Un 2.52.447.372.39

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Mainz vs Wolfsburg at 04 Dec 2021

In this article I will analyze the game between Mainz and Wolfsburg for Bundesliga (Germany).
OddsHomeDrawAwayOverUnder
Book2.543.282.892.111.78
Ours2.263.773.421.862.17
Value %4.88-3.96-5.366.37-10.1

According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Over (4.88 %, 6.37 %) so let's further analyze the game.


Basic Data and latest results

Mainz
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6222446642
Last 3021223312
At Home331576434
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
26 NovStuttgartA12LOGg
21 NovFC KolnH11DUGg
05 NovM'gladbachH11DUGg
30 OctBielefeldA21WOGg
22 OctAugsburgH41WOGg
16 OctDortmundA13LOGg
03 OctUnion BerlinH12LOGg
25 SepLeverkusenA01LUNg
Wolfsburg
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6213394424
Last 3111443221
At Away312565433
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
27 NovDortmundH13LOGg
20 NovBielefeldA22DOGg
06 NovAugsburgH10WUNg
30 OctLeverkusenA20WUNg
23 OctFreiburgH02LUNg
16 OctUnion BerlinA02LUNg
02 OctM'gladbachH13LOGg
25 SepHoffenheimA13LOGg

Playing style

MainzShGxGShAGAxGA
Open play1241514.6102128.99
From corner3223.442101.96
Set piece1901.941010.72
Direct Freekick600.26600.32
Penalty000110.76
WolfsburgShGxGShAGAxGA
Open play1221313.7578108.13
From corner2512.612812.06
Set piece1000.561833.84
Direct Freekick700.511000.66
Penalty211.52533.79
MainzShGxGShAGAxGA
Out of box6201.715501.69
Penalty area1051413.1381149.86
Six-yard box1435.39401.2
WolfsburgShGxGShAGAxGA
Out of box5411.796211.95
Penalty area931010.88651011.05
Six-yard box1946.271265.46
MainzShGxGShAGAxGA
1-153243.622711.5
16-302742.971921.8
31-453234.852322.16
46-602803.353443.94
61-752131.621841.68
76+4133.821911.67
WolfsburgShGxGShAGAxGA
1-152833.632132.4
16-302632.821812.19
31-452501.11922.38
46-603335.52353.44
61-752342.582221.81
76+3123.313646.26
The next graph represents the shots attempted and recieved for the Mainz and Wolfsburg within a specific timeframe of the game. The black line is the average and you can interpret it as a Heat Indicator.

Desicive Betting factors

FactorsMainzWolfsburg
Form Score-0.095-0.148
Home/Away form0.120.17
Off ability10.33
Def ability-1-0.333


Optimal equations estimations

The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:
TeamNo-G1 gl2 gls3+ gls
Mainz20%32%30%18%
Wolfsburg26%40%20%13%

The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Mainz and the red line for guest team, Wolfsburg.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Mainz to score 1.24 goals and Wolfsburg to score 1.13 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.11 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Mainz to score 1.47 goals and Wolfsburg to score 1.21 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.68 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.26 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
GoalsOddsGoalsOdds
019.230-14.67
16.172-31.97
24.054+3.57
33.85Ov 1.51.27
45.62Un 1.54.67
512.82Ov 2.51.85
6+41.67Un 2.52.17
Gg1.68Ov 3.53.57
NoG2.46Un 3.51.39
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios? The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number! Use it and get great odds for your choices!
If game ends with-1--X--2-
0-1 goals2.584.122.71
2-3 goals2.043.963.87
4+ goals2.483.293.41
Ov 1.52.183.693.69
Un 1.52.584.122.71
Ov 2.51.916.353.12
Un 2.52.852.563.87
Ov 3.52.483.293.41
Un 3.52.184.013.43
Goal-Goal2.542.794.04
No Goal1.947.832.81
G-G+Ov 2.51.995.483.17
NG+Un 2.52.067.832.8

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Leverkusen vs Greuther Furth at 04 Dec 2021

In this article I will analyze the game between Leverkusen and Greuther Furth for Bundesliga (Germany).
OddsHomeDrawAwayOverUnder
Book1.236.8111.481.333.29
Ours1.724.085.751.433.33
Value %-23.169.838.68-5.26-0.37

According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Draw, Away (9.83 %, 8.68 %) so let's further analyze the game.


Basic Data and latest results

Leverkusen
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6222445533
Last 3210783212
At Home303505333
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
28 NovRB LeipzigA31WOGg
20 NovBochumH10WUNg
07 NovHerthaA11DUGg
30 OctWolfsburgH02LUNg
24 OctFC KolnA22DOGg
17 OctBayern MunichH15LOGg
03 OctBielefeldA40WONg
25 SepMainzH10WUNg
Greuther Furth
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 600604651
Last 300302330
At Away00705770
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
27 NovHoffenheimH36LOGg
20 NovM'gladbachA04LONg
07 NovEin FrankfurtH12LOGg
30 OctFreiburgA13LOGg
23 OctRB LeipzigA14LOGg
16 OctBochumH01LUNg
01 OctFC KolnA13LOGg
24 SepBayern MunichH13LOGg

Playing style

LeverkusenShGxGShAGAxGA
Open play1232417.371491312.72
From corner2121.992201.52
Direct Freekick600.3310.12
Set piece510.721832.5
Penalty211.52312.27
Greuther FurthShGxGShAGAxGA
Open play10679.871452619.21
From corner1611.554486.15
Set piece1601.341122.97
Penalty332.27332.27
Direct Freekick200.18200.1
LeverkusenShGxGShAGAxGA
Own goals333000
Out of box4621.97822.16
Penalty area1012114.541011012.1
Six-yard box722.451664.87
Greuther FurthShGxGShAGAxGA
Own goals000444
Out of box5101.336832.4
Penalty area7899.921192518.79
Six-yard box1423.971475.51
LeverkusenShGxGShAGAxGA
1-152995.663322.76
16-302453.723022.13
31-452221.672964.41
46-602942.943734.16
61-752342.843131.82
76+3045.053523.86
Greuther FurthShGxGShAGAxGA
1-152511.722442.45
16-301210.462452.83
31-452324.553874.04
46-603223.134887.38
61-752121.513365.74
76+3033.833898.27
The next graph represents the shots attempted and recieved for the Leverkusen and Greuther Furth within a specific timeframe of the game. The black line is the average and you can interpret it as a Heat Indicator.

Desicive Betting factors

FactorsLeverkusenGreuther Furth
Form Score0.024-1
Home/Away form-0.178-1
Off ability0.5470.243
Def ability-0.565-1


Optimal equations estimations

The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:
TeamNo-G1 gl2 gls3+ gls
Leverkusen11%24%20%44%
Greuther Furth2%77%16%6%

The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Leverkusen and the red line for guest team, Greuther Furth.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Leverkusen to score 3.07 goals and Greuther Furth to score 0.56 goals. So, they expect a total of 3.62 goals in the game and the home team Leverkusen to win by 2.51 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Leverkusen to score 1.98 goals and Greuther Furth to score 1.25 goals. So, we expect a total of 3.23 goals in the game and the home team Leverkusen to win by 0.73 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
GoalsOddsGoalsOdds
05000-110.75
110.992-32.42
24.854+2.03
34.81Ov 1.51.1
42.6Un 1.510.75
512.35Ov 2.51.43
6+38.46Un 2.53.34
Gg1.15Ov 3.52.03
NoG7.69Un 3.51.97
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios? The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number! Use it and get great odds for your choices!
If game ends with-1--X--2-
0-1 goals18.646.51.08
2-3 goals2.462.246.79
4+ goals1.28.6318.92
Ov 1.51.573.7410.41
Un 1.518.646.51.08
Ov 2.51.2212.2810
Un 2.533.221.62.9
Ov 3.51.28.6318.92
Un 3.52.932.713.45
Goal-Goal1.543.5913.79
No Goal7.22651.18
G-G+Ov 2.51.211210.86
NG+Un 2.512.67651.11

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M'gladbach vs Freiburg at 05 Dec 2021

In this article I will analyze the game between M'gladbach and Freiburg for Bundesliga (Germany).
OddsHomeDrawAwayOverUnder
Book1.863.824.061.742.13
Ours2.423.773.121.852.17
Value %-12.440.357.42-3.42-0.87

According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Draw, Away (0.35 %, 7.42 %) so let's further analyze the game.


Basic Data and latest results

M'gladbach
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6222445533
Last 3111443221
At Home420786433
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
27 NovFC KolnA14LOGg
20 NovGreuther FurthH40WONg
05 NovMainzA11DUGg
31 OctBochumH21WOGg
23 OctHerthaA01LUNg
16 OctStuttgartH11DUGg
02 OctWolfsburgA31WOGg
25 SepDortmundH10WUNg
Freiburg
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6213395533
Last 300302321
At Away322525443
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
27 NovBochumA12LOGg
21 NovEin FrankfurtH02LUNg
06 NovBayern MunichA12LOGg
30 OctGreuther FurthH31WOGg
23 OctWolfsburgA20WUNg
16 OctRB LeipzigH11DUGg
02 OctHerthaA21WOGg
26 SepAugsburgH30WONg

Playing style

M'gladbachShGxGShAGAxGA
Open play1421616.151131613.54
From corner4313.112712.25
Set piece1311.791001.05
Direct Freekick700.61410.22
Penalty201.52000
FreiburgShGxGShAGAxGA
Open play1091014.161391115.88
From corner3842.232601.59
Set piece2124.21500.4
Direct Freekick610.34610.26
Penalty221.52110.76
M'gladbachShGxGShAGAxGA
Own goals000111
Out of box7732.84731.31
Penalty area1171415.8287129.34
Six-yard box1314.561925.41
FreiburgShGxGShAGAxGA
Own goals222111
Out of box5711.778322.3
Penalty area1011013.8396812.47
Six-yard box1664.84723.12
M'gladbachShGxGShAGAxGA
1-153354.112031.93
16-302611.882222.18
31-453965.132634.24
46-603112.822732.96
61-754033.12712.46
76+3826.153263.29
FreiburgShGxGShAGAxGA
1-152842.92601.92
16-302855.063012.59
31-452523.53653.9
46-603023.033835.1
61-753324.113033.32
76+3243.842712.06
The next graph represents the shots attempted and recieved for the M'gladbach and Freiburg within a specific timeframe of the game. The black line is the average and you can interpret it as a Heat Indicator.

Desicive Betting factors

FactorsM'gladbachFreiburg
Form Score-0.071-0.244
Home/Away form0.610.119
Off ability0.5790.565
Def ability-0.565-0.704


Optimal equations estimations

The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:
TeamNo-G1 gl2 gls3+ gls
M'gladbach22%33%26%19%
Freiburg25%38%21%15%

The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, M'gladbach and the red line for guest team, Freiburg.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) M'gladbach to score 1.76 goals and Freiburg to score 0.99 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.75 goals in the game and the home team M'gladbach to win by 0.77 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) M'gladbach to score 1.43 goals and Freiburg to score 1.26 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.69 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.17 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
GoalsOddsGoalsOdds
017.860-14.48
15.992-32.05
24.224+3.48
33.98Ov 1.51.29
45.62Un 1.54.48
512.5Ov 2.51.86
6+34.48Un 2.52.17
Gg1.72Ov 3.53.48
NoG2.4Un 3.51.41
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios? The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number! Use it and get great odds for your choices!
If game ends with-1--X--2-
0-1 goals2.693.982.65
2-3 goals2.273.93.3
4+ goals2.53.423.26
Ov 1.52.353.713.28
Un 1.52.693.982.65
Ov 2.52.046.42.83
Un 2.53.092.543.54
Ov 3.52.53.423.26
Un 3.52.393.933.06
Goal-Goal2.72.783.7
No Goal2.117.452.56
G-G+Ov 2.52.125.432.9
NG+Un 2.52.257.452.58

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Stuttgart vs Hertha at 05 Dec 2021

In this article I will analyze the game between Stuttgart and Hertha for Bundesliga (Germany).
OddsHomeDrawAwayOverUnder
Book2.283.333.331.991.87
Ours1.714.395.351.722.39
Value %14.62-7.25-11.347.89-11.63

According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Over (14.62 %, 7.89 %) so let's further analyze the game.


Basic Data and latest results

Stuttgart
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6123285633
Last 3102332321
At Home313486752
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
26 NovMainzH21WOGg
20 NovDortmundA12LOGg
06 NovBielefeldH01LUNg
31 OctAugsburgA14LOGg
24 OctUnion BerlinH11DUGg
16 OctM'gladbachA11DUGg
02 OctHoffenheimH31WOGg
26 SepBochumA00DUNg
Hertha
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6222444515
Last 3021222303
At Away205293752
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
27 NovAugsburgH11DUGg
20 NovUnion BerlinA02LUNg
07 NovLeverkusenH11DUGg
29 OctHoffenheimA02LUNg
23 OctM'gladbachH10WUNg
16 OctEin FrankfurtA21WOGg
02 OctFreiburgH12LOGg
25 SepRB LeipzigA06LONg

Playing style

StuttgartShGxGShAGAxGA
Open play1181311.191621514.85
From corner3232.493352.88
Set piece711.291011.98
Direct Freekick400.27710.41
Penalty000110.76
HerthaShGxGShAGAxGA
Open play87910.511181714
From corner2322.033243.23
Set piece1112.141521.91
Direct Freekick700.51710.4
Penalty110.76332.27
StuttgartShGxGShAGAxGA
Out of box5922.018952.76
Penalty area91139.84981010.51
Six-yard box1123.392687.62
HerthaShGxGShAGAxGA
Own goals111000
Out of box4711.765111.46
Penalty area7168.091131915.45
Six-yard box1055.091174.9
StuttgartShGxGShAGAxGA
1-152321.763732.22
16-302031.733853.94
31-453134.283143.34
46-603253.054033.1
61-752021.463333.95
76+3522.953454.35
HerthaShGxGShAGAxGA
1-152123.442632.08
16-301601.143044.02
31-452253.512733.26
46-601722.073275.92
61-752021.82731.98
76+3323.983374.55
The next graph represents the shots attempted and recieved for the Stuttgart and Hertha within a specific timeframe of the game. The black line is the average and you can interpret it as a Heat Indicator.

Desicive Betting factors

FactorsStuttgartHertha
Form Score-0.413-0.059
Home/Away form-0.154-0.407
Off ability0.5050.191
Def ability-1-0.704


Optimal equations estimations

The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:
TeamNo-G1 gl2 gls3+ gls
Stuttgart14%28%21%36%
Hertha36%37%18%9%

The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Stuttgart and the red line for guest team, Hertha.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Stuttgart to score 1.4 goals and Hertha to score 1.07 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and the home team Stuttgart to win by 0.33 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Stuttgart to score 1.78 goals and Hertha to score 0.99 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.77 goals in the game and the home team Stuttgart to win by 0.79 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
GoalsOddsGoalsOdds
018.870-14.76
16.372-32.08
24.814+3.24
33.66Ov 1.51.27
45.13Un 1.54.76
512.05Ov 2.51.72
6+32.26Un 2.52.39
Gg1.84Ov 3.53.24
NoG2.19Un 3.51.45
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios? The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number! Use it and get great odds for your choices!
If game ends with-1--X--2-
0-1 goals2.043.963.89
2-3 goals1.684.585.34
4+ goals1.584.487.02
Ov 1.51.644.545.9
Un 1.52.043.963.89
Ov 2.51.448.435.39
Un 2.52.322.655.22
Ov 3.51.584.487.02
Un 3.51.784.374.8
Goal-Goal1.983.135.73
No Goal1.478.64.9
G-G+Ov 2.51.66.364.62
NG+Un 2.51.748.63.91

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