Serie A
In this article we will analyse the following games:
(with blue color are the value bets as estimated by the optimal equations method).
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Under (8.86 %, 7.57 %) so let's further analyze the game.
The next graph represents the shots attempted and recieved for the Napoli and Atalanta within a specific timeframe of the game. The black line is the average and you can interpret it as a Heat Indicator.
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Napoli and the red line for guest team, Atalanta.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Napoli to score 1.48 goals and Atalanta to score 1.37 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.85 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.11 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Napoli to score 1.47 goals and Atalanta to score 1.01 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and the home team Napoli to win by 0.46 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios?
The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number!
Use it and get great odds for your choices!
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Draw, Away, Under (12.71 %, 7.76 %, 21.85 %) so let's further analyze the game.
The next graph represents the shots attempted and recieved for the Milan and Salernitana within a specific timeframe of the game. The black line is the average and you can interpret it as a Heat Indicator.
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Milan and the red line for guest team, Salernitana.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Milan to score 2.72 goals and Salernitana to score 0.43 goals. So, they expect a total of 3.15 goals in the game and the home team Milan to win by 2.29 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Milan to score 1.56 goals and Salernitana to score 0.69 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.25 goals in the game and the home team Milan to win by 0.87 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios?
The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number!
Use it and get great odds for your choices!
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Under (13 %, 5.36 %) so let's further analyze the game.
The next graph represents the shots attempted and recieved for the Roma and Inter within a specific timeframe of the game. The black line is the average and you can interpret it as a Heat Indicator.
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Roma and the red line for guest team, Inter.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Roma to score 1.09 goals and Inter to score 1.74 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.83 goals in the game and the guest team Inter to win by 0.65 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Roma to score 1.32 goals and Inter to score 1.22 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.1 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios?
The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number!
Use it and get great odds for your choices!
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Under (7.71 %, 5.87 %) so let's further analyze the game.
The next graph represents the shots attempted and recieved for the Bologna and Fiorentina within a specific timeframe of the game. The black line is the average and you can interpret it as a Heat Indicator.
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Bologna and the red line for guest team, Fiorentina.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Bologna to score 1.27 goals and Fiorentina to score 1.35 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.61 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.08 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Bologna to score 1.27 goals and Fiorentina to score 1.04 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.31 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.23 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios?
The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number!
Use it and get great odds for your choices!
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Draw, Under (8.91 %, 6.77 %, 10.1 %) so let's further analyze the game.
The next graph represents the shots attempted and recieved for the Sampdoria and Lazio within a specific timeframe of the game. The black line is the average and you can interpret it as a Heat Indicator.
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Sampdoria and the red line for guest team, Lazio.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sampdoria to score 1.18 goals and Lazio to score 1.65 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.83 goals in the game and the guest team Lazio to win by 0.47 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sampdoria to score 1.38 goals and Lazio to score 1.14 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.24 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios?
The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number!
Use it and get great odds for your choices!
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Draw, Under (0.46 %, 1.98 %, 12.63 %) so let's further analyze the game.
The next graph represents the shots attempted and recieved for the Spezia and Sassuolo within a specific timeframe of the game. The black line is the average and you can interpret it as a Heat Indicator.
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Spezia and the red line for guest team, Sassuolo.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Spezia to score 1.25 goals and Sassuolo to score 1.75 goals. So, they expect a total of 3 goals in the game and the guest team Sassuolo to win by 0.5 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Spezia to score 1.09 goals and Sassuolo to score 1.3 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.21 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios?
The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number!
Use it and get great odds for your choices!
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Under (5.72 %, 1.14 %) so let's further analyze the game.
The next graph represents the shots attempted and recieved for the Venezia and Verona within a specific timeframe of the game. The black line is the average and you can interpret it as a Heat Indicator.
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Venezia and the red line for guest team, Verona.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Venezia to score 1.02 goals and Verona to score 1.48 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and the guest team Verona to win by 0.46 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Venezia to score 1.13 goals and Verona to score 1.24 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.11 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios?
The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number!
Use it and get great odds for your choices!
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Draw, Away, Under (9.22 %, 19.18 %, 8.47 %) so let's further analyze the game.
The next graph represents the shots attempted and recieved for the Juventus and Genoa within a specific timeframe of the game. The black line is the average and you can interpret it as a Heat Indicator.
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Juventus and the red line for guest team, Genoa.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Juventus to score 2.4 goals and Genoa to score 0.45 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.85 goals in the game and the home team Juventus to win by 1.95 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Juventus to score 1.4 goals and Genoa to score 1.03 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and the home team Juventus to win by 0.37 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios?
The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number!
Use it and get great odds for your choices!
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Draw, Under (0.43 %, 4.1 %) so let's further analyze the game.
The next graph represents the shots attempted and recieved for the Empoli and Udinese within a specific timeframe of the game. The black line is the average and you can interpret it as a Heat Indicator.
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Empoli and the red line for guest team, Udinese.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Empoli to score 1.32 goals and Udinese to score 1.28 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.6 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.04 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Empoli to score 1.2 goals and Udinese to score 1.22 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.02 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios?
The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number!
Use it and get great odds for your choices!
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home (8.18 %) so let's further analyze the game.
The next graph represents the shots attempted and recieved for the Cagliari and Torino within a specific timeframe of the game. The black line is the average and you can interpret it as a Heat Indicator.
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Cagliari and the red line for guest team, Torino.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Cagliari to score 1.06 goals and Torino to score 1.35 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.29 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Cagliari to score 1.26 goals and Torino to score 1.18 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.08 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios?
The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number!
Use it and get great odds for your choices!
| Teams | Date | Home | Draw | Away | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli - Atalanta | 04-Dec | 2.52 | 3.52 | 2.79 | 1.68 | 2.26 |
| Milan - Salernitana | 04-Dec | 1.21 | 6.95 | 13.99 | 1.5 | 2.58 |
| Roma - Inter | 04-Dec | 3.77 | 3.71 | 2 | 1.7 | 2.24 |
| Bologna - Fiorentina | 05-Dec | 2.84 | 3.27 | 2.6 | 1.86 | 2 |
| Sampdoria - Lazio | 05-Dec | 3.35 | 3.67 | 2.13 | 1.69 | 2.23 |
| Spezia - Sassuolo | 05-Dec | 3.33 | 3.76 | 2.1 | 1.57 | 2.38 |
| Venezia - Verona | 05-Dec | 3.52 | 3.34 | 2.1 | 1.97 | 1.89 |
| Juventus - Genoa | 05-Dec | 1.26 | 5.92 | 12.75 | 1.68 | 2.25 |
| Empoli - Udinese | 06-Dec | 2.61 | 3.43 | 2.72 | 1.88 | 1.99 |
| Cagliari - Torino | 06-Dec | 3.27 | 3.28 | 2.33 | 2.06 | 1.8 |
Click here to view the mathematical predictions for today!
Napoli vs Atalanta at 04 Dec 2021
In this article I will analyze the game between Napoli and Atalanta for Serie A (Italy).| Odds | Home | Draw | Away | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | 2.52 | 3.52 | 2.79 | 1.68 | 2.26 |
| Ours | 2.06 | 3.75 | 4.03 | 2.08 | 1.93 |
| Value % | 8.86 | -1.74 | -11.03 | -11.45 | 7.57 |
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Under (8.86 %, 7.57 %) so let's further analyze the game.
Basic Data and latest results
Napoli
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 61 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| Last 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 44 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| At Home | 6 | 1 | 0 | 90 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Dec | Sassuolo | A | 2 | 2 | D | O | Gg |
| 28 Nov | Lazio | H | 4 | 0 | W | O | Ng |
| 21 Nov | Inter | A | 2 | 3 | L | O | Gg |
| 07 Nov | Verona | H | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 31 Oct | Salernitana | A | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 28 Oct | Bologna | H | 3 | 0 | W | O | Ng |
| 24 Oct | Roma | A | 0 | 0 | D | U | Ng |
| 17 Oct | Torino | H | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
Atalanta
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 89 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 1 |
| Last 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 100 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| At Away | 6 | 1 | 0 | 90 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 2 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Nov | Venezia | H | 4 | 0 | W | O | Ng |
| 27 Nov | Juventus | A | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 20 Nov | Spezia | H | 5 | 2 | W | O | Gg |
| 06 Nov | Cagliari | A | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 30 Oct | Lazio | H | 2 | 2 | D | O | Gg |
| 27 Oct | Sampdoria | A | 3 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 24 Oct | Udinese | H | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 17 Oct | Empoli | A | 4 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
Playing style
| Napoli | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open play | 170 | 21 | 15.39 | 109 | 5 | 8.55 |
| From corner | 20 | 2 | 1.59 | 20 | 2 | 0.87 |
| Direct Freekick | 14 | 0 | 0.66 | 5 | 0 | 0.35 |
| Set piece | 13 | 5 | 2.7 | 9 | 1 | 0.79 |
| Penalty | 7 | 4 | 5.33 | 1 | 1 | 0.76 |
| Atalanta | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open play | 179 | 29 | 24.97 | 124 | 13 | 13.19 |
| From corner | 33 | 0 | 1.68 | 25 | 2 | 2.05 |
| Direct Freekick | 8 | 0 | 0.38 | 5 | 0 | 0.32 |
| Set piece | 7 | 0 | 0.63 | 3 | 0 | 0.1 |
| Penalty | 4 | 3 | 3.05 | 3 | 2 | 2.28 |
| Napoli | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Out of box | 96 | 8 | 3.44 | 63 | 0 | 1.86 |
| Penalty area | 111 | 16 | 15.59 | 73 | 8 | 7.71 |
| Six-yard box | 17 | 8 | 6.63 | 8 | 1 | 1.74 |
| Atalanta | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own goals | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Out of box | 72 | 5 | 2.43 | 61 | 2 | 1.75 |
| Penalty area | 139 | 20 | 20.58 | 88 | 12 | 12.38 |
| Six-yard box | 18 | 5 | 5.7 | 11 | 3 | 3.83 |
| Napoli | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-15 | 41 | 4 | 4.76 | 15 | 2 | 2.05 |
| 16-30 | 32 | 5 | 3.82 | 33 | 2 | 3.24 |
| 31-45 | 39 | 5 | 4.85 | 24 | 1 | 1.61 |
| 46-60 | 37 | 9 | 5.08 | 23 | 1 | 0.88 |
| 61-75 | 35 | 3 | 3.78 | 22 | 2 | 2.45 |
| 76+ | 40 | 6 | 3.38 | 27 | 1 | 1.09 |
| Atalanta | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-15 | 31 | 6 | 4.96 | 22 | 4 | 3.48 |
| 16-30 | 45 | 6 | 5.39 | 25 | 3 | 1.99 |
| 31-45 | 30 | 6 | 5.04 | 28 | 3 | 2.54 |
| 46-60 | 36 | 3 | 3.22 | 26 | 1 | 3.23 |
| 61-75 | 36 | 3 | 4.74 | 26 | 2 | 3.82 |
| 76+ | 53 | 8 | 7.35 | 33 | 4 | 2.89 |
Desicive Betting factors
| Factors | Napoli | Atalanta |
|---|---|---|
| Form Score | 0.246 | 0.852 |
| Home/Away form | 0.809 | 0.933 |
| Off ability | 1 | 1 |
| Def ability | 0.104 | -0.237 |
Optimal equations estimations
The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:| Team | No-G | 1 gl | 2 gls | 3+ gls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli | 25% | 21% | 36% | 18% |
| Atalanta | 42% | 22% | 28% | 8% |
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Napoli and the red line for guest team, Atalanta.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Napoli to score 1.48 goals and Atalanta to score 1.37 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.85 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.11 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Napoli to score 1.47 goals and Atalanta to score 1.01 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and the home team Napoli to win by 0.46 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
| Goals | Odds | Goals | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.43 | 0-1 | 4.02 |
| 1 | 6.99 | 2-3 | 1.99 |
| 2 | 3.72 | 4+ | 4.02 |
| 3 | 4.29 | Ov 1.5 | 1.33 |
| 4 | 6.37 | Un 1.5 | 4.02 |
| 5 | 12.82 | Ov 2.5 | 2.07 |
| 6+ | 71.43 | Un 2.5 | 1.93 |
| Gg | 2.31 | Ov 3.5 | 4.02 |
| NoG | 1.76 | Un 3.5 | 1.33 |
| If game ends with | -1- | -X- | -2- |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 goals | 2.86 | 2.35 | 4.45 |
| 2-3 goals | 1.62 | 10.91 | 3.41 |
| 4+ goals | 2.8 | 2.17 | 5.53 |
| Ov 1.5 | 1.89 | 4.66 | 3.91 |
| Un 1.5 | 2.86 | 2.35 | 4.45 |
| Ov 2.5 | 1.97 | 4.19 | 3.95 |
| Un 2.5 | 2.16 | 3.41 | 4.11 |
| Ov 3.5 | 2.8 | 2.17 | 5.53 |
| Un 3.5 | 1.9 | 4.94 | 3.7 |
| Goal-Goal | 2.55 | 2.69 | 4.25 |
| No Goal | 1.8 | 5.35 | 3.88 |
| G-G+Ov 2.5 | 2.28 | 3.37 | 3.79 |
| NG+Un 2.5 | 1.97 | 5.35 | 3.75 |
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Milan vs Salernitana at 04 Dec 2021
In this article I will analyze the game between Milan and Salernitana for Serie A (Italy).| Odds | Home | Draw | Away | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | 1.21 | 6.95 | 13.99 | 1.5 | 2.58 |
| Ours | 1.72 | 3.69 | 6.71 | 2.53 | 1.65 |
| Value % | -24.51 | 12.71 | 7.76 | -27.14 | 21.85 |
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Draw, Away, Under (12.71 %, 7.76 %, 21.85 %) so let's further analyze the game.
Basic Data and latest results
Milan
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 56 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| Last 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 33 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| At Home | 5 | 1 | 1 | 76 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Dec | Genoa | A | 3 | 0 | W | O | Ng |
| 28 Nov | Sassuolo | H | 1 | 3 | L | O | Gg |
| 20 Nov | Fiorentina | A | 3 | 4 | L | O | Gg |
| 07 Nov | Inter | H | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 31 Oct | Roma | A | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 26 Oct | Torino | H | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 23 Oct | Bologna | A | 4 | 2 | W | O | Gg |
| 16 Oct | Verona | H | 3 | 2 | W | O | Gg |
Salernitana
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 4 |
| Last 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| At Away | 1 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 2 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Nov | Juventus | H | 0 | 2 | L | U | Ng |
| 26 Nov | Cagliari | A | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 21 Nov | Sampdoria | H | 0 | 2 | L | U | Ng |
| 07 Nov | Lazio | A | 0 | 3 | L | O | Ng |
| 31 Oct | Napoli | H | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
| 26 Oct | Venezia | A | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 23 Oct | Empoli | H | 2 | 4 | L | O | Gg |
| 16 Oct | Spezia | A | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
Playing style
| Milan | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open play | 172 | 22 | 19.13 | 118 | 12 | 9.94 |
| From corner | 27 | 4 | 3.03 | 40 | 3 | 4.85 |
| Set piece | 15 | 1 | 2.24 | 8 | 0 | 0.58 |
| Direct Freekick | 10 | 3 | 0.62 | 8 | 0 | 0.41 |
| Penalty | 4 | 3 | 3.05 | 4 | 3 | 3.05 |
| Salernitana | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open play | 112 | 6 | 10.17 | 187 | 26 | 22.98 |
| From corner | 37 | 3 | 2.93 | 31 | 3 | 3.26 |
| Set piece | 9 | 1 | 0.95 | 7 | 1 | 1.17 |
| Direct Freekick | 5 | 0 | 0.36 | 12 | 0 | 0.75 |
| Penalty | 1 | 1 | 0.76 | 2 | 1 | 1.52 |
| Milan | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own goals | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Out of box | 99 | 6 | 3.2 | 66 | 3 | 1.76 |
| Penalty area | 116 | 19 | 17.12 | 97 | 11 | 11.81 |
| Six-yard box | 10 | 5 | 4.74 | 13 | 2 | 3.26 |
| Salernitana | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own goals | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Out of box | 61 | 0 | 1.8 | 91 | 2 | 3.58 |
| Penalty area | 91 | 8 | 8.73 | 125 | 19 | 15.97 |
| Six-yard box | 11 | 2 | 3.64 | 21 | 8 | 8.14 |
| Milan | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-15 | 36 | 6 | 4.72 | 29 | 5 | 3.75 |
| 16-30 | 43 | 5 | 4.49 | 25 | 2 | 2.85 |
| 31-45 | 39 | 5 | 4.04 | 23 | 2 | 2.69 |
| 46-60 | 41 | 4 | 4.79 | 27 | 3 | 3.5 |
| 61-75 | 27 | 6 | 4.38 | 22 | 1 | 1.36 |
| 76+ | 42 | 7 | 5.65 | 52 | 5 | 4.68 |
| Salernitana | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-15 | 21 | 0 | 1.43 | 38 | 5 | 5.4 |
| 16-30 | 25 | 0 | 1.04 | 40 | 3 | 3.38 |
| 31-45 | 28 | 1 | 2.13 | 41 | 5 | 5.82 |
| 46-60 | 29 | 5 | 4.27 | 41 | 6 | 3.54 |
| 61-75 | 31 | 3 | 3.7 | 37 | 8 | 4.62 |
| 76+ | 30 | 2 | 2.61 | 42 | 4 | 6.93 |
Desicive Betting factors
| Factors | Milan | Salernitana |
|---|---|---|
| Form Score | 0.063 | -0.541 |
| Home/Away form | 0.411 | -0.504 |
| Off ability | 1 | -0.591 |
| Def ability | -0.217 | -1 |
Optimal equations estimations
The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:| Team | No-G | 1 gl | 2 gls | 3+ gls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milan | 23% | 18% | 40% | 20% |
| Salernitana | 67% | 2% | 27% | 4% |
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Milan and the red line for guest team, Salernitana.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Milan to score 2.72 goals and Salernitana to score 0.43 goals. So, they expect a total of 3.15 goals in the game and the home team Milan to win by 2.29 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Milan to score 1.56 goals and Salernitana to score 0.69 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.25 goals in the game and the home team Milan to win by 0.87 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
| Goals | Odds | Goals | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.58 | 0-1 | 3.64 |
| 1 | 8.13 | 2-3 | 1.9 |
| 2 | 3.04 | 4+ | 5.08 |
| 3 | 5.08 | Ov 1.5 | 1.38 |
| 4 | 8.55 | Un 1.5 | 3.64 |
| 5 | 14.08 | Ov 2.5 | 2.54 |
| 6+ | 111.11 | Un 2.5 | 1.66 |
| Gg | 3.92 | Ov 3.5 | 5.08 |
| NoG | 1.35 | Un 3.5 | 1.25 |
| If game ends with | -1- | -X- | -2- |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 goals | 2.31 | 1.81 | 68.75 |
| 2-3 goals | 1.3 | 175.33 | 4.42 |
| 4+ goals | 3.52 | 1.71 | 7.58 |
| Ov 1.5 | 1.57 | 6.13 | 4.99 |
| Un 1.5 | 2.31 | 1.81 | 68.75 |
| Ov 2.5 | 2.02 | 3.43 | 4.69 |
| Un 2.5 | 1.57 | 3.9 | 9.29 |
| Ov 3.5 | 3.52 | 1.71 | 7.58 |
| Un 3.5 | 1.53 | 5.17 | 6.51 |
| Goal-Goal | 4.05 | 2.16 | 3.45 |
| No Goal | 1.44 | 4.89 | 9.91 |
| G-G+Ov 2.5 | 4 | 2.19 | 3.41 |
| NG+Un 2.5 | 1.57 | 4.89 | 9.25 |
Go to Top
Roma vs Inter at 04 Dec 2021
In this article I will analyze the game between Roma and Inter for Serie A (Italy).| Odds | Home | Draw | Away | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | 3.77 | 3.71 | 2 | 1.7 | 2.24 |
| Ours | 2.53 | 3.79 | 2.93 | 2 | 2 |
| Value % | 13 | -0.57 | -15.87 | -8.82 | 5.36 |
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Under (13 %, 5.36 %) so let's further analyze the game.
Basic Data and latest results
Roma
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 50 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| Last 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 67 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| At Home | 5 | 1 | 1 | 76 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Dec | Bologna | A | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
| 28 Nov | Torino | H | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 21 Nov | Genoa | A | 2 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 07 Nov | Venezia | A | 2 | 3 | L | O | Gg |
| 31 Oct | Milan | H | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 27 Oct | Cagliari | A | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 24 Oct | Napoli | H | 0 | 0 | D | U | Ng |
| 17 Oct | Juventus | A | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
Inter
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 89 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| Last 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 100 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| At Away | 5 | 2 | 1 | 71 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 3 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Dec | Spezia | H | 2 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 27 Nov | Venezia | A | 2 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 21 Nov | Napoli | H | 3 | 2 | W | O | Gg |
| 07 Nov | Milan | A | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 31 Oct | Udinese | H | 2 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 27 Oct | Empoli | A | 2 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 24 Oct | Juventus | H | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 16 Oct | Lazio | A | 1 | 3 | L | O | Gg |
Playing style
| Roma | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open play | 187 | 19 | 20.38 | 101 | 11 | 12.58 |
| From corner | 45 | 2 | 3.22 | 15 | 1 | 1.65 |
| Set piece | 26 | 1 | 2.37 | 15 | 1 | 1.52 |
| Direct Freekick | 5 | 1 | 0.27 | 5 | 1 | 0.28 |
| Penalty | 2 | 1 | 1.52 | 2 | 2 | 1.52 |
| Inter | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open play | 192 | 25 | 24.49 | 128 | 8 | 10.64 |
| From corner | 47 | 4 | 4.55 | 27 | 2 | 1.6 |
| Penalty | 8 | 6 | 6.09 | 3 | 3 | 2.28 |
| Set piece | 5 | 0 | 0.34 | 14 | 2 | 1.99 |
| Direct Freekick | 5 | 1 | 0.41 | 7 | 0 | 0.41 |
| Roma | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own goals | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Out of box | 88 | 2 | 2.7 | 48 | 4 | 1.37 |
| Penalty area | 143 | 17 | 17.12 | 78 | 8 | 11.43 |
| Six-yard box | 33 | 4 | 6.96 | 12 | 4 | 4.75 |
| Inter | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own goals | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Out of box | 80 | 4 | 2.77 | 74 | 3 | 2.11 |
| Penalty area | 154 | 25 | 24.78 | 91 | 10 | 11.07 |
| Six-yard box | 23 | 7 | 8.32 | 13 | 1 | 2.74 |
| Roma | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-15 | 31 | 0 | 2.22 | 20 | 3 | 2.58 |
| 16-30 | 33 | 1 | 3.37 | 20 | 2 | 1.3 |
| 31-45 | 42 | 7 | 4.66 | 19 | 1 | 2.09 |
| 46-60 | 45 | 5 | 5.46 | 36 | 6 | 6.23 |
| 61-75 | 57 | 4 | 7.84 | 22 | 4 | 3.12 |
| 76+ | 57 | 7 | 4.23 | 21 | 0 | 2.23 |
| Inter | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-15 | 38 | 6 | 5.3 | 26 | 1 | 2.73 |
| 16-30 | 36 | 4 | 4.64 | 25 | 5 | 3.9 |
| 31-45 | 42 | 6 | 4.1 | 27 | 2 | 1.92 |
| 46-60 | 49 | 8 | 6.95 | 33 | 1 | 2.47 |
| 61-75 | 48 | 6 | 8.26 | 25 | 1 | 1.65 |
| 76+ | 44 | 6 | 6.62 | 43 | 5 | 4.25 |
Desicive Betting factors
| Factors | Roma | Inter |
|---|---|---|
| Form Score | -0.087 | 0.837 |
| Home/Away form | 0.444 | 0.563 |
| Off ability | 0.442 | 1 |
| Def ability | -0.157 | 0.333 |
Optimal equations estimations
The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:| Team | No-G | 1 gl | 2 gls | 3+ gls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roma | 28% | 27% | 30% | 15% |
| Inter | 33% | 27% | 26% | 14% |
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Roma and the red line for guest team, Inter.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Roma to score 1.09 goals and Inter to score 1.74 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.83 goals in the game and the guest team Inter to win by 0.65 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Roma to score 1.32 goals and Inter to score 1.22 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.1 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
| Goals | Odds | Goals | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.75 | 0-1 | 3.89 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 2-3 | 2.07 |
| 2 | 4.12 | 4+ | 3.85 |
| 3 | 4.17 | Ov 1.5 | 1.35 |
| 4 | 6.41 | Un 1.5 | 3.89 |
| 5 | 12.2 | Ov 2.5 | 2 |
| 6+ | 45.45 | Un 2.5 | 2 |
| Gg | 2.07 | Ov 3.5 | 3.85 |
| NoG | 1.93 | Un 3.5 | 1.35 |
| If game ends with | -1- | -X- | -2- |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 goals | 2.95 | 2.76 | 3.34 |
| 2-3 goals | 2.13 | 6.71 | 2.62 |
| 4+ goals | 3.25 | 2.63 | 3.21 |
| Ov 1.5 | 2.42 | 4.35 | 2.8 |
| Un 1.5 | 2.95 | 2.76 | 3.34 |
| Ov 2.5 | 2.38 | 5.05 | 2.62 |
| Un 2.5 | 2.72 | 3.03 | 3.31 |
| Ov 3.5 | 3.25 | 2.63 | 3.21 |
| Un 3.5 | 2.36 | 4.48 | 2.84 |
| Goal-Goal | 2.99 | 2.82 | 3.21 |
| No Goal | 2.22 | 5.57 | 2.7 |
| G-G+Ov 2.5 | 2.55 | 4.14 | 2.73 |
| NG+Un 2.5 | 2.33 | 5.57 | 2.83 |
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Bologna vs Fiorentina at 05 Dec 2021
In this article I will analyze the game between Bologna and Fiorentina for Serie A (Italy).| Odds | Home | Draw | Away | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | 2.84 | 3.27 | 2.6 | 1.86 | 2 |
| Ours | 2.33 | 3.8 | 3.25 | 2.27 | 1.79 |
| Value % | 7.71 | -4.27 | -7.69 | -9.71 | 5.87 |
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Under (7.71 %, 5.87 %) so let's further analyze the game.
Basic Data and latest results
Bologna
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 67 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| Last 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 67 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| At Home | 5 | 1 | 2 | 67 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Dec | Roma | H | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 28 Nov | Spezia | A | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 21 Nov | Venezia | H | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
| 07 Nov | Sampdoria | A | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 01 Nov | Cagliari | H | 2 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 28 Oct | Napoli | A | 0 | 3 | L | O | Ng |
| 23 Oct | Milan | H | 2 | 4 | L | O | Gg |
| 17 Oct | Udinese | A | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
Fiorentina
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 50 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 |
| Last 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 67 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| At Away | 3 | 0 | 5 | 38 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 4 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Nov | Sampdoria | H | 3 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 27 Nov | Empoli | A | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 20 Nov | Milan | H | 4 | 3 | W | O | Gg |
| 06 Nov | Juventus | A | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
| 31 Oct | Spezia | H | 3 | 0 | W | O | Ng |
| 27 Oct | Lazio | A | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
| 24 Oct | Cagliari | H | 3 | 0 | W | O | Ng |
| 18 Oct | Venezia | A | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
Playing style
| Bologna | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open play | 135 | 11 | 12.23 | 148 | 15 | 14.46 |
| From corner | 44 | 7 | 5.47 | 17 | 1 | 1.19 |
| Set piece | 11 | 1 | 0.35 | 9 | 3 | 1.47 |
| Direct Freekick | 6 | 0 | 0.56 | 8 | 0 | 0.45 |
| Penalty | 3 | 2 | 2.28 | 5 | 5 | 3.81 |
| Fiorentina | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open play | 128 | 14 | 13.03 | 115 | 14 | 12.8 |
| From corner | 33 | 4 | 3.53 | 23 | 1 | 2.49 |
| Set piece | 15 | 0 | 0.78 | 9 | 3 | 2.15 |
| Direct Freekick | 9 | 1 | 0.52 | 3 | 0 | 0.16 |
| Penalty | 5 | 5 | 3.81 | 3 | 2 | 2.28 |
| Bologna | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own goals | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Out of box | 85 | 4 | 2.77 | 75 | 4 | 2.36 |
| Penalty area | 100 | 12 | 13.78 | 102 | 14 | 14.45 |
| Six-yard box | 13 | 4 | 3.34 | 9 | 5 | 3.58 |
| Fiorentina | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own goals | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Out of box | 71 | 3 | 2.34 | 42 | 0 | 1.23 |
| Penalty area | 107 | 17 | 14.7 | 100 | 16 | 13.88 |
| Six-yard box | 12 | 4 | 4.61 | 10 | 3 | 3.78 |
| Bologna | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-15 | 32 | 2 | 1.8 | 26 | 3 | 3.28 |
| 16-30 | 24 | 1 | 3.25 | 35 | 3 | 2.62 |
| 31-45 | 30 | 1 | 2.24 | 26 | 3 | 3 |
| 46-60 | 39 | 6 | 3.73 | 35 | 5 | 5.14 |
| 61-75 | 31 | 4 | 3.28 | 33 | 4 | 3.42 |
| 76+ | 43 | 7 | 6.58 | 32 | 6 | 3.91 |
| Fiorentina | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-15 | 28 | 2 | 3.36 | 14 | 1 | 0.98 |
| 16-30 | 34 | 4 | 3.68 | 17 | 1 | 1.5 |
| 31-45 | 41 | 7 | 5.83 | 25 | 2 | 3.62 |
| 46-60 | 35 | 6 | 4.38 | 35 | 4 | 2.83 |
| 61-75 | 22 | 3 | 1.88 | 26 | 4 | 4.14 |
| 76+ | 30 | 2 | 2.52 | 36 | 8 | 6.81 |
Desicive Betting factors
| Factors | Bologna | Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| Form Score | 0.341 | 0.037 |
| Home/Away form | 0.245 | -0.319 |
| Off ability | 0.126 | 0.304 |
| Def ability | 0.243 | -0.704 |
Optimal equations estimations
The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:| Team | No-G | 1 gl | 2 gls | 3+ gls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna | 24% | 43% | 14% | 18% |
| Fiorentina | 39% | 27% | 25% | 9% |
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Bologna and the red line for guest team, Fiorentina.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Bologna to score 1.27 goals and Fiorentina to score 1.35 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.61 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.08 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Bologna to score 1.27 goals and Fiorentina to score 1.04 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.31 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.23 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
| Goals | Odds | Goals | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.64 | 0-1 | 3.07 |
| 1 | 4.31 | 2-3 | 2.11 |
| 2 | 4.27 | 4+ | 4.98 |
| 3 | 4.18 | Ov 1.5 | 1.48 |
| 4 | 8 | Un 1.5 | 3.07 |
| 5 | 16.67 | Ov 2.5 | 2.27 |
| 6+ | 62.5 | Un 2.5 | 1.79 |
| Gg | 2.16 | Ov 3.5 | 4.98 |
| NoG | 1.87 | Un 3.5 | 1.25 |
| If game ends with | -1- | -X- | -2- |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 goals | 1.96 | 3.47 | 4.94 |
| 2-3 goals | 2.85 | 4.08 | 2.48 |
| 4+ goals | 2.07 | 3.79 | 3.94 |
| Ov 1.5 | 2.56 | 3.99 | 2.79 |
| Un 1.5 | 1.96 | 3.47 | 4.94 |
| Ov 2.5 | 2.13 | 8.3 | 2.44 |
| Un 2.5 | 2.52 | 2.67 | 4.38 |
| Ov 3.5 | 2.07 | 3.79 | 3.94 |
| Un 3.5 | 2.41 | 3.8 | 3.11 |
| Goal-Goal | 3.41 | 2.75 | 2.92 |
| No Goal | 1.83 | 5.7 | 3.6 |
| G-G+Ov 2.5 | 2.56 | 6.57 | 2.19 |
| NG+Un 2.5 | 2 | 5.7 | 3.47 |
Go to Top
Sampdoria vs Lazio at 05 Dec 2021
In this article I will analyze the game between Sampdoria and Lazio for Serie A (Italy).| Odds | Home | Draw | Away | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | 3.35 | 3.67 | 2.13 | 1.69 | 2.23 |
| Ours | 2.58 | 2.94 | 3.66 | 2.22 | 1.82 |
| Value % | 8.91 | 6.77 | -19.63 | -14.13 | 10.1 |
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Draw, Under (8.91 %, 6.77 %, 10.1 %) so let's further analyze the game.
Basic Data and latest results
Sampdoria
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 33 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 1 |
| Last 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 67 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| At Home | 2 | 2 | 4 | 33 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 1 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Nov | Fiorentina | A | 1 | 3 | L | O | Gg |
| 27 Nov | Verona | H | 3 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 21 Nov | Salernitana | A | 2 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 07 Nov | Bologna | H | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 30 Oct | Torino | A | 0 | 3 | L | O | Ng |
| 27 Oct | Atalanta | H | 1 | 3 | L | O | Gg |
| 22 Oct | Spezia | H | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 17 Oct | Cagliari | A | 1 | 3 | L | O | Gg |
Lazio
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 44 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| Last 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| At Away | 1 | 2 | 4 | 24 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 2 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Dec | Udinese | H | 4 | 4 | D | O | Gg |
| 28 Nov | Napoli | A | 0 | 4 | L | O | Ng |
| 20 Nov | Juventus | H | 0 | 2 | L | U | Ng |
| 07 Nov | Salernitana | H | 3 | 0 | W | O | Ng |
| 30 Oct | Atalanta | A | 2 | 2 | D | O | Gg |
| 27 Oct | Fiorentina | H | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 24 Oct | Verona | A | 1 | 4 | L | O | Gg |
| 16 Oct | Inter | H | 3 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
Playing style
| Sampdoria | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open play | 127 | 13 | 12.52 | 167 | 23 | 19.57 |
| From corner | 29 | 4 | 2.88 | 37 | 3 | 5.08 |
| Set piece | 11 | 3 | 1.94 | 12 | 1 | 0.86 |
| Direct Freekick | 6 | 0 | 0.28 | 8 | 1 | 0.53 |
| Penalty | 1 | 1 | 0.76 | 1 | 1 | 0.76 |
| Lazio | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open play | 124 | 22 | 13.98 | 143 | 22 | 16.22 |
| From corner | 24 | 2 | 1.59 | 35 | 2 | 2.72 |
| Set piece | 10 | 2 | 1.42 | 11 | 1 | 1.04 |
| Direct Freekick | 8 | 0 | 0.43 | 4 | 0 | 0.17 |
| Penalty | 4 | 3 | 3.05 | 5 | 4 | 3.81 |
| Sampdoria | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own goals | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Out of box | 63 | 1 | 1.6 | 86 | 5 | 3.22 |
| Penalty area | 98 | 15 | 10.63 | 119 | 14 | 14.85 |
| Six-yard box | 10 | 2 | 3.15 | 19 | 9 | 7.73 |
| Lazio | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Out of box | 64 | 4 | 2.06 | 63 | 4 | 1.81 |
| Penalty area | 94 | 22 | 14.97 | 118 | 21 | 17.73 |
| Six-yard box | 12 | 3 | 3.42 | 17 | 4 | 4.42 |
| Sampdoria | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-15 | 25 | 3 | 3.06 | 37 | 5 | 4.71 |
| 16-30 | 26 | 2 | 2.73 | 32 | 5 | 5.35 |
| 31-45 | 32 | 5 | 4.42 | 37 | 7 | 5.5 |
| 46-60 | 41 | 4 | 3.12 | 36 | 5 | 3.51 |
| 61-75 | 22 | 2 | 1.25 | 31 | 1 | 2.77 |
| 76+ | 28 | 5 | 3.81 | 52 | 6 | 4.96 |
| Lazio | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-15 | 23 | 4 | 1.79 | 32 | 6 | 4.48 |
| 16-30 | 31 | 4 | 2.84 | 33 | 5 | 4.79 |
| 31-45 | 31 | 5 | 4.89 | 31 | 7 | 3.97 |
| 46-60 | 30 | 5 | 2.81 | 40 | 0 | 3.8 |
| 61-75 | 29 | 5 | 4.5 | 26 | 6 | 3.88 |
| 76+ | 26 | 6 | 3.63 | 36 | 5 | 3.04 |
Desicive Betting factors
| Factors | Sampdoria | Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| Form Score | -0.373 | -0.059 |
| Home/Away form | -0.411 | -0.459 |
| Off ability | 0.579 | 0.157 |
| Def ability | -0.591 | -0.407 |
Optimal equations estimations
The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:| Team | No-G | 1 gl | 2 gls | 3+ gls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sampdoria | 34% | 5% | 51% | 11% |
| Lazio | 44% | 10% | 34% | 12% |
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Sampdoria and the red line for guest team, Lazio.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sampdoria to score 1.18 goals and Lazio to score 1.65 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.83 goals in the game and the guest team Lazio to win by 0.47 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sampdoria to score 1.38 goals and Lazio to score 1.14 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.24 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
| Goals | Odds | Goals | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.62 | 0-1 | 4.85 |
| 1 | 18.18 | 2-3 | 2.01 |
| 2 | 2.91 | 4+ | 3.37 |
| 3 | 6.49 | Ov 1.5 | 1.26 |
| 4 | 5.32 | Un 1.5 | 4.85 |
| 5 | 10.42 | Ov 2.5 | 2.22 |
| 6+ | 76.92 | Un 2.5 | 1.82 |
| Gg | 2.72 | Ov 3.5 | 3.37 |
| NoG | 1.58 | Un 3.5 | 1.42 |
| If game ends with | -1- | -X- | -2- |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 goals | 9.81 | 1.36 | 6.06 |
| 2-3 goals | 1.56 | 99.6 | 2.88 |
| 4+ goals | 6.46 | 1.61 | 4.5 |
| Ov 1.5 | 2.17 | 4.18 | 3.33 |
| Un 1.5 | 9.81 | 1.36 | 6.06 |
| Ov 2.5 | 3.15 | 2.44 | 3.67 |
| Un 2.5 | 2.25 | 3.53 | 3.67 |
| Ov 3.5 | 6.46 | 1.61 | 4.5 |
| Un 3.5 | 2.06 | 4.51 | 3.4 |
| Goal-Goal | 3.83 | 1.94 | 4.49 |
| No Goal | 2.18 | 4.19 | 3.31 |
| G-G+Ov 2.5 | 3.78 | 1.96 | 4.43 |
| NG+Un 2.5 | 2.23 | 4.19 | 3.63 |
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Spezia vs Sassuolo at 05 Dec 2021
In this article I will analyze the game between Spezia and Sassuolo for Serie A (Italy).| Odds | Home | Draw | Away | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | 3.33 | 3.76 | 2.1 | 1.57 | 2.38 |
| Ours | 3.28 | 3.5 | 2.44 | 2.2 | 1.83 |
| Value % | 0.46 | 1.98 | -6.64 | -18.24 | 12.63 |
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Draw, Under (0.46 %, 1.98 %, 12.63 %) so let's further analyze the game.
Basic Data and latest results
Spezia
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 4 |
| Last 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| At Home | 2 | 1 | 4 | 33 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 4 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Dec | Inter | A | 0 | 2 | L | U | Ng |
| 28 Nov | Bologna | H | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
| 20 Nov | Atalanta | A | 2 | 5 | L | O | Gg |
| 06 Nov | Torino | H | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 31 Oct | Fiorentina | A | 0 | 3 | L | O | Ng |
| 26 Oct | Genoa | H | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 22 Oct | Sampdoria | A | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 16 Oct | Salernitana | H | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
Sassuolo
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 44 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 0 |
| Last 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 56 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| At Away | 3 | 1 | 3 | 48 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 0 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Dec | Napoli | H | 2 | 2 | D | O | Gg |
| 28 Nov | Milan | A | 3 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 21 Nov | Cagliari | H | 2 | 2 | D | O | Gg |
| 07 Nov | Udinese | A | 2 | 3 | L | O | Gg |
| 31 Oct | Empoli | H | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 27 Oct | Juventus | A | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 23 Oct | Venezia | H | 3 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 17 Oct | Genoa | A | 2 | 2 | D | O | Gg |
Playing style
| Spezia | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open play | 138 | 12 | 12 | 184 | 23 | 16.79 |
| From corner | 17 | 2 | 1.59 | 31 | 3 | 4.44 |
| Set piece | 7 | 1 | 1.27 | 12 | 2 | 1.41 |
| Direct Freekick | 5 | 0 | 0.23 | 10 | 0 | 0.52 |
| Penalty | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 5.33 |
| Sassuolo | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open play | 160 | 19 | 18.91 | 155 | 13 | 15.11 |
| From corner | 29 | 2 | 4.03 | 37 | 3 | 2.58 |
| Direct Freekick | 8 | 0 | 0.5 | 4 | 0 | 0.21 |
| Set piece | 8 | 1 | 1.22 | 9 | 3 | 2.23 |
| Penalty | 2 | 2 | 1.52 | 4 | 4 | 3.05 |
| Spezia | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own goals | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Out of box | 80 | 5 | 2.22 | 89 | 6 | 3.35 |
| Penalty area | 77 | 7 | 7.14 | 144 | 24 | 20.11 |
| Six-yard box | 9 | 2 | 4.73 | 10 | 3 | 4.03 |
| Sassuolo | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own goals | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Out of box | 83 | 2 | 2.69 | 69 | 1 | 2.07 |
| Penalty area | 106 | 15 | 14.93 | 121 | 17 | 16.02 |
| Six-yard box | 15 | 4 | 5.56 | 18 | 4 | 4.09 |
| Spezia | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-15 | 26 | 4 | 2.09 | 27 | 5 | 3.56 |
| 16-30 | 27 | 0 | 2.97 | 43 | 2 | 3.63 |
| 31-45 | 20 | 1 | 0.76 | 43 | 7 | 6.8 |
| 46-60 | 28 | 4 | 2.56 | 45 | 5 | 4.8 |
| 61-75 | 29 | 2 | 3.67 | 45 | 8 | 5.34 |
| 76+ | 37 | 4 | 3.04 | 41 | 7 | 4.36 |
| Sassuolo | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-15 | 31 | 1 | 2.93 | 28 | 2 | 2.58 |
| 16-30 | 31 | 5 | 3.63 | 34 | 2 | 2.45 |
| 31-45 | 35 | 7 | 5.74 | 35 | 5 | 4.69 |
| 46-60 | 39 | 5 | 7.62 | 37 | 5 | 4.85 |
| 61-75 | 36 | 3 | 3.61 | 33 | 2 | 3.93 |
| 76+ | 35 | 3 | 2.65 | 42 | 7 | 4.67 |
Desicive Betting factors
| Factors | Spezia | Sassuolo |
|---|---|---|
| Form Score | -0.651 | 0.015 |
| Home/Away form | -0.436 | 0.059 |
| Off ability | -0.505 | 1 |
| Def ability | -0.626 | -1 |
Optimal equations estimations
The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:| Team | No-G | 1 gl | 2 gls | 3+ gls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spezia | 38% | 22% | 33% | 7% |
| Sassuolo | 36% | 16% | 31% | 17% |
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Spezia and the red line for guest team, Sassuolo.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Spezia to score 1.25 goals and Sassuolo to score 1.75 goals. So, they expect a total of 3 goals in the game and the guest team Sassuolo to win by 0.5 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Spezia to score 1.09 goals and Sassuolo to score 1.3 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.21 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
| Goals | Odds | Goals | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.35 | 0-1 | 3.66 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 2-3 | 2.07 |
| 2 | 3.68 | 4+ | 4.1 |
| 3 | 4.72 | Ov 1.5 | 1.37 |
| 4 | 6.62 | Un 1.5 | 3.66 |
| 5 | 12.5 | Ov 2.5 | 2.19 |
| 6+ | 76.92 | Un 2.5 | 1.83 |
| Gg | 2.51 | Ov 3.5 | 4.1 |
| NoG | 1.66 | Un 3.5 | 1.32 |
| If game ends with | -1- | -X- | -2- |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 goals | 3.59 | 2.01 | 4.48 |
| 2-3 goals | 2.48 | 14.24 | 1.9 |
| 4+ goals | 7.18 | 2.1 | 2.6 |
| Ov 1.5 | 3.18 | 4.85 | 2.09 |
| Un 1.5 | 3.59 | 2.01 | 4.48 |
| Ov 2.5 | 4.07 | 3.93 | 2 |
| Un 2.5 | 2.82 | 3.21 | 2.99 |
| Ov 3.5 | 7.18 | 2.1 | 2.6 |
| Un 3.5 | 2.79 | 4.45 | 2.4 |
| Goal-Goal | 4.63 | 2.65 | 2.46 |
| No Goal | 2.75 | 4.43 | 2.43 |
| G-G+Ov 2.5 | 4.23 | 3.14 | 2.25 |
| NG+Un 2.5 | 2.65 | 4.43 | 2.81 |
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Venezia vs Verona at 05 Dec 2021
In this article I will analyze the game between Venezia and Verona for Serie A (Italy).| Odds | Home | Draw | Away | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | 3.52 | 3.34 | 2.1 | 1.97 | 1.89 |
| Ours | 2.93 | 3.73 | 2.56 | 2.18 | 1.85 |
| Value % | 5.72 | -3.13 | -8.56 | -4.89 | 1.14 |
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Under (5.72 %, 1.14 %) so let's further analyze the game.
Basic Data and latest results
Venezia
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 39 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| Last 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 33 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| At Home | 2 | 1 | 3 | 39 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Nov | Atalanta | A | 0 | 4 | L | O | Ng |
| 27 Nov | Inter | H | 0 | 2 | L | U | Ng |
| 21 Nov | Bologna | A | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 07 Nov | Roma | H | 3 | 2 | W | O | Gg |
| 31 Oct | Genoa | A | 0 | 0 | D | U | Ng |
| 26 Oct | Salernitana | H | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 23 Oct | Sassuolo | A | 1 | 3 | L | O | Gg |
| 18 Oct | Fiorentina | H | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
Verona
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 50 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
| Last 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 44 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| At Away | 0 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 3 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Nov | Cagliari | H | 0 | 0 | D | U | Ng |
| 27 Nov | Sampdoria | A | 1 | 3 | L | O | Gg |
| 22 Nov | Empoli | H | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 07 Nov | Napoli | A | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 30 Oct | Juventus | H | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 27 Oct | Udinese | A | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 24 Oct | Lazio | H | 4 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 16 Oct | Milan | A | 2 | 3 | L | O | Gg |
Playing style
| Venezia | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open play | 98 | 8 | 9.99 | 187 | 21 | 18.85 |
| From corner | 16 | 0 | 2 | 42 | 1 | 3.38 |
| Set piece | 7 | 2 | 0.97 | 13 | 0 | 0.68 |
| Direct Freekick | 6 | 0 | 0.29 | 14 | 0 | 0.75 |
| Penalty | 2 | 2 | 1.52 | 4 | 3 | 3.05 |
| Verona | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open play | 130 | 23 | 15.66 | 153 | 17 | 15.53 |
| From corner | 22 | 1 | 1.27 | 29 | 2 | 3.53 |
| Set piece | 10 | 0 | 0.89 | 20 | 4 | 1.8 |
| Direct Freekick | 5 | 0 | 0.27 | 8 | 0 | 0.4 |
| Penalty | 4 | 4 | 3.05 | 2 | 2 | 1.52 |
| Venezia | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own goals | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Out of box | 47 | 0 | 1.37 | 112 | 4 | 3.68 |
| Penalty area | 68 | 11 | 10.17 | 128 | 17 | 17.12 |
| Six-yard box | 14 | 1 | 3.23 | 19 | 3 | 4.9 |
| Verona | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own goals | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Out of box | 56 | 6 | 1.89 | 90 | 2 | 2.7 |
| Penalty area | 97 | 17 | 14.11 | 105 | 19 | 12.75 |
| Six-yard box | 18 | 5 | 5.13 | 15 | 2 | 5.32 |
| Venezia | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-15 | 19 | 3 | 2.82 | 47 | 3 | 3.01 |
| 16-30 | 21 | 0 | 1.85 | 39 | 2 | 3.5 |
| 31-45 | 15 | 2 | 2.23 | 36 | 3 | 2.35 |
| 46-60 | 25 | 2 | 2.03 | 44 | 5 | 5.51 |
| 61-75 | 17 | 3 | 2.37 | 39 | 6 | 6.77 |
| 76+ | 32 | 2 | 3.47 | 55 | 6 | 5.56 |
| Verona | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-15 | 42 | 9 | 6.19 | 27 | 1 | 2.66 |
| 16-30 | 21 | 3 | 4.32 | 31 | 1 | 2.77 |
| 31-45 | 17 | 3 | 0.86 | 35 | 3 | 2.11 |
| 46-60 | 32 | 4 | 3.58 | 36 | 6 | 5.05 |
| 61-75 | 21 | 4 | 2.68 | 41 | 3 | 5.16 |
| 76+ | 38 | 5 | 3.5 | 42 | 11 | 5.03 |
Desicive Betting factors
| Factors | Venezia | Verona |
|---|---|---|
| Form Score | -0.27 | 0.133 |
| Home/Away form | -0.344 | -0.407 |
| Off ability | -0.505 | 0.539 |
| Def ability | -0.243 | -0.607 |
Optimal equations estimations
The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:| Team | No-G | 1 gl | 2 gls | 3+ gls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Venezia | 33% | 31% | 24% | 11% |
| Verona | 36% | 19% | 30% | 15% |
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Venezia and the red line for guest team, Verona.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Venezia to score 1.02 goals and Verona to score 1.48 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and the guest team Verona to win by 0.46 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Venezia to score 1.13 goals and Verona to score 1.24 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.11 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
| Goals | Odds | Goals | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 0-1 | 3.39 |
| 1 | 5.68 | 2-3 | 2.1 |
| 2 | 4.07 | 4+ | 4.39 |
| 3 | 4.35 | Ov 1.5 | 1.42 |
| 4 | 7.09 | Un 1.5 | 3.39 |
| 5 | 14.29 | Ov 2.5 | 2.18 |
| 6+ | 58.82 | Un 2.5 | 1.85 |
| Gg | 2.34 | Ov 3.5 | 4.39 |
| NoG | 1.75 | Un 3.5 | 1.3 |
| If game ends with | -1- | -X- | -2- |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 goals | 2.61 | 2.48 | 4.68 |
| 2-3 goals | 2.77 | 8.07 | 1.94 |
| 4+ goals | 4.15 | 2.53 | 2.75 |
| Ov 1.5 | 3.1 | 4.72 | 2.15 |
| Un 1.5 | 2.61 | 2.48 | 4.68 |
| Ov 2.5 | 3.25 | 5.09 | 2.02 |
| Un 2.5 | 2.72 | 3.04 | 3.3 |
| Ov 3.5 | 4.15 | 2.53 | 2.75 |
| Un 3.5 | 2.71 | 4.33 | 2.5 |
| Goal-Goal | 4.27 | 2.87 | 2.4 |
| No Goal | 2.38 | 4.81 | 2.69 |
| G-G+Ov 2.5 | 3.68 | 4.09 | 2.07 |
| NG+Un 2.5 | 2.42 | 4.81 | 2.94 |
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Juventus vs Genoa at 05 Dec 2021
In this article I will analyze the game between Juventus and Genoa for Serie A (Italy).| Odds | Home | Draw | Away | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | 1.26 | 5.92 | 12.75 | 1.68 | 2.25 |
| Ours | 2.14 | 3.83 | 3.7 | 2.12 | 1.89 |
| Value % | -32.64 | 9.22 | 19.18 | -12.35 | 8.47 |
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Draw, Away, Under (9.22 %, 19.18 %, 8.47 %) so let's further analyze the game.
Basic Data and latest results
Juventus
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 50 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| Last 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 67 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| At Home | 3 | 1 | 3 | 48 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 5 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Nov | Salernitana | A | 2 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 27 Nov | Atalanta | H | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
| 20 Nov | Lazio | A | 2 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 06 Nov | Fiorentina | H | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 30 Oct | Verona | A | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 27 Oct | Sassuolo | H | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 24 Oct | Inter | A | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 17 Oct | Roma | H | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
Genoa
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 22 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
| Last 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| At Away | 1 | 4 | 3 | 29 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 3 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Dec | Milan | H | 0 | 3 | L | O | Ng |
| 28 Nov | Udinese | A | 0 | 0 | D | U | Ng |
| 21 Nov | Roma | H | 0 | 2 | L | U | Ng |
| 05 Nov | Empoli | A | 2 | 2 | D | O | Gg |
| 31 Oct | Venezia | H | 0 | 0 | D | U | Ng |
| 26 Oct | Spezia | A | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 22 Oct | Torino | A | 2 | 3 | L | O | Gg |
| 17 Oct | Sassuolo | H | 2 | 2 | D | O | Gg |
Playing style
| Juventus | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open play | 158 | 14 | 17.25 | 121 | 11 | 11.07 |
| From corner | 25 | 1 | 3.34 | 25 | 4 | 2.52 |
| Set piece | 12 | 1 | 1.59 | 8 | 0 | 0.8 |
| Penalty | 5 | 4 | 3.81 | 2 | 1 | 1.52 |
| Direct Freekick | 5 | 0 | 0.24 | 3 | 0 | 0.11 |
| Genoa | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open play | 125 | 9 | 10.42 | 147 | 19 | 18.16 |
| From corner | 20 | 2 | 1.88 | 33 | 3 | 2.05 |
| Set piece | 16 | 1 | 0.47 | 20 | 3 | 2.48 |
| Direct Freekick | 7 | 0 | 0.34 | 6 | 1 | 0.47 |
| Penalty | 5 | 5 | 3.81 | 3 | 3 | 2.28 |
| Juventus | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Out of box | 77 | 3 | 2.58 | 62 | 1 | 1.54 |
| Penalty area | 114 | 14 | 16.85 | 88 | 11 | 11.13 |
| Six-yard box | 14 | 3 | 6.8 | 9 | 4 | 3.35 |
| Genoa | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own goals | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Out of box | 75 | 0 | 2.12 | 69 | 5 | 2.08 |
| Penalty area | 94 | 16 | 13.26 | 121 | 18 | 14.94 |
| Six-yard box | 4 | 1 | 1.54 | 18 | 5 | 7.43 |
| Juventus | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-15 | 38 | 5 | 6.39 | 30 | 2 | 2.08 |
| 16-30 | 25 | 4 | 3.1 | 19 | 3 | 2.6 |
| 31-45 | 25 | 1 | 2.48 | 33 | 3 | 2.78 |
| 46-60 | 46 | 1 | 5.47 | 27 | 3 | 2.8 |
| 61-75 | 36 | 4 | 3.73 | 27 | 1 | 1.84 |
| 76+ | 35 | 5 | 5.05 | 23 | 4 | 3.92 |
| Genoa | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-15 | 26 | 1 | 1.93 | 32 | 6 | 3.67 |
| 16-30 | 19 | 1 | 1.01 | 31 | 3 | 3.56 |
| 31-45 | 18 | 0 | 1.63 | 29 | 2 | 1.7 |
| 46-60 | 34 | 2 | 2.92 | 34 | 5 | 3.61 |
| 61-75 | 27 | 3 | 1.97 | 38 | 5 | 5.69 |
| 76+ | 49 | 10 | 7.46 | 45 | 8 | 7.22 |
Desicive Betting factors
| Factors | Juventus | Genoa |
|---|---|---|
| Form Score | -0.008 | -0.37 |
| Home/Away form | -0.162 | -0.222 |
| Off ability | 0.474 | -0.652 |
| Def ability | 0.243 | -0.333 |
Optimal equations estimations
The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:| Team | No-G | 1 gl | 2 gls | 3+ gls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus | 25% | 29% | 28% | 18% |
| Genoa | 40% | 25% | 26% | 8% |
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Juventus and the red line for guest team, Genoa.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Juventus to score 2.4 goals and Genoa to score 0.45 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.85 goals in the game and the home team Juventus to win by 1.95 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Juventus to score 1.4 goals and Genoa to score 1.03 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and the home team Juventus to win by 0.37 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
| Goals | Odds | Goals | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 0-1 | 3.6 |
| 1 | 5.62 | 2-3 | 2.04 |
| 2 | 3.98 | 4+ | 4.33 |
| 3 | 4.17 | Ov 1.5 | 1.39 |
| 4 | 6.94 | Un 1.5 | 3.6 |
| 5 | 13.89 | Ov 2.5 | 2.12 |
| 6+ | 66.67 | Un 2.5 | 1.89 |
| Gg | 2.23 | Ov 3.5 | 4.33 |
| NoG | 1.81 | Un 3.5 | 1.3 |
| If game ends with | -1- | -X- | -2- |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 goals | 2.4 | 2.78 | 4.48 |
| 2-3 goals | 1.9 | 6.92 | 3.05 |
| 4+ goals | 2.48 | 2.57 | 4.81 |
| Ov 1.5 | 2.05 | 4.48 | 3.45 |
| Un 1.5 | 2.4 | 2.78 | 4.48 |
| Ov 2.5 | 1.99 | 5.23 | 3.27 |
| Un 2.5 | 2.29 | 3.09 | 4.17 |
| Ov 3.5 | 2.48 | 2.57 | 4.81 |
| Un 3.5 | 2.05 | 4.5 | 3.45 |
| Goal-Goal | 2.74 | 2.79 | 3.62 |
| No Goal | 1.81 | 5.51 | 3.75 |
| G-G+Ov 2.5 | 2.3 | 4.2 | 3.05 |
| NG+Un 2.5 | 1.98 | 5.51 | 3.61 |
Go to Top
Empoli vs Udinese at 06 Dec 2021
In this article I will analyze the game between Empoli and Udinese for Serie A (Italy).| Odds | Home | Draw | Away | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | 2.61 | 3.43 | 2.72 | 1.88 | 1.99 |
| Ours | 2.87 | 3.38 | 2.81 | 2.19 | 1.84 |
| Value % | -3.47 | 0.43 | -1.18 | -7.53 | 4.1 |
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Draw, Under (0.43 %, 4.1 %) so let's further analyze the game.
Basic Data and latest results
Empoli
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 44 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 1 |
| Last 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 44 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| At Home | 2 | 1 | 5 | 29 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 1 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Dec | Torino | A | 2 | 2 | D | O | Gg |
| 27 Nov | Fiorentina | H | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 22 Nov | Verona | A | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 05 Nov | Genoa | H | 2 | 2 | D | O | Gg |
| 31 Oct | Sassuolo | A | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 27 Oct | Inter | H | 0 | 2 | L | U | Ng |
| 23 Oct | Salernitana | A | 4 | 2 | W | O | Gg |
| 17 Oct | Atalanta | H | 1 | 4 | L | O | Gg |
Udinese
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 33 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
| Last 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| At Away | 1 | 3 | 3 | 29 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 4 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Dec | Lazio | A | 4 | 4 | D | O | Gg |
| 28 Nov | Genoa | H | 0 | 0 | D | U | Ng |
| 22 Nov | Torino | A | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 07 Nov | Sassuolo | H | 3 | 2 | W | O | Gg |
| 31 Oct | Inter | A | 0 | 2 | L | U | Ng |
| 27 Oct | Verona | H | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 24 Oct | Atalanta | A | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 17 Oct | Bologna | H | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
Playing style
| Empoli | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open play | 150 | 14 | 12.57 | 175 | 23 | 23.17 |
| From corner | 37 | 3 | 3.8 | 42 | 3 | 5.09 |
| Set piece | 9 | 2 | 1.2 | 14 | 0 | 0.49 |
| Direct Freekick | 7 | 0 | 0.42 | 4 | 0 | 0.16 |
| Penalty | 4 | 4 | 3.05 | 4 | 2 | 3.05 |
| Udinese | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open play | 139 | 12 | 13.48 | 144 | 16 | 14.08 |
| From corner | 36 | 3 | 3.82 | 23 | 3 | 2.84 |
| Set piece | 12 | 3 | 2.34 | 13 | 2 | 2.61 |
| Direct Freekick | 6 | 1 | 0.23 | 4 | 0 | 0.27 |
| Penalty | 1 | 1 | 0.76 | 3 | 3 | 2.28 |
| Empoli | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own goals | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Out of box | 82 | 3 | 2.37 | 71 | 1 | 2.11 |
| Penalty area | 105 | 14 | 11.06 | 143 | 19 | 19.2 |
| Six-yard box | 18 | 4 | 5.62 | 22 | 5 | 7.64 |
| Udinese | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own goals | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Out of box | 74 | 1 | 1.93 | 81 | 4 | 2.44 |
| Penalty area | 107 | 14 | 13.32 | 89 | 13 | 11.33 |
| Six-yard box | 12 | 4 | 4.38 | 16 | 6 | 7.32 |
| Empoli | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-15 | 29 | 5 | 4.81 | 47 | 7 | 6.03 |
| 16-30 | 29 | 4 | 2.7 | 28 | 3 | 3.6 |
| 31-45 | 31 | 2 | 2.93 | 36 | 4 | 5.51 |
| 46-60 | 26 | 1 | 2.08 | 47 | 7 | 6.76 |
| 61-75 | 43 | 5 | 3.79 | 36 | 4 | 5.38 |
| 76+ | 49 | 6 | 4.74 | 45 | 3 | 4.66 |
| Udinese | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-15 | 25 | 3 | 1.92 | 35 | 4 | 3.32 |
| 16-30 | 34 | 2 | 2.18 | 27 | 4 | 4.36 |
| 31-45 | 32 | 4 | 4.97 | 25 | 3 | 3.82 |
| 46-60 | 25 | 2 | 3.4 | 39 | 7 | 4.03 |
| 61-75 | 28 | 1 | 2.68 | 31 | 3 | 4.02 |
| 76+ | 50 | 8 | 5.49 | 30 | 3 | 2.53 |
Desicive Betting factors
| Factors | Empoli | Udinese |
|---|---|---|
| Form Score | -0.048 | -0.163 |
| Home/Away form | -0.527 | -0.304 |
| Off ability | 0.611 | 0.217 |
| Def ability | -1 | -0.63 |
Optimal equations estimations
The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:| Team | No-G | 1 gl | 2 gls | 3+ gls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Empoli | 35% | 19% | 36% | 10% |
| Udinese | 39% | 14% | 33% | 14% |
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Empoli and the red line for guest team, Udinese.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Empoli to score 1.32 goals and Udinese to score 1.28 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.6 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.04 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Empoli to score 1.2 goals and Udinese to score 1.22 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.02 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
| Goals | Odds | Goals | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 0-1 | 3.83 |
| 1 | 8.06 | 2-3 | 2.07 |
| 2 | 3.53 | 4+ | 3.91 |
| 3 | 5 | Ov 1.5 | 1.35 |
| 4 | 6.29 | Un 1.5 | 3.83 |
| 5 | 12.05 | Ov 2.5 | 2.19 |
| 6+ | 71.43 | Un 2.5 | 1.84 |
| Gg | 2.53 | Ov 3.5 | 3.91 |
| NoG | 1.66 | Un 3.5 | 1.34 |
| If game ends with | -1- | -X- | -2- |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 goals | 3.58 | 1.91 | 5.12 |
| 2-3 goals | 2.1 | 17.89 | 2.14 |
| 4+ goals | 5.69 | 1.94 | 3.24 |
| Ov 1.5 | 2.69 | 4.65 | 2.42 |
| Un 1.5 | 3.58 | 1.91 | 5.12 |
| Ov 2.5 | 3.4 | 3.45 | 2.4 |
| Un 2.5 | 2.54 | 3.32 | 3.28 |
| Ov 3.5 | 5.69 | 1.94 | 3.24 |
| Un 3.5 | 2.46 | 4.54 | 2.69 |
| Goal-Goal | 4.08 | 2.49 | 2.83 |
| No Goal | 2.41 | 4.41 | 2.8 |
| G-G+Ov 2.5 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 2.64 |
| NG+Un 2.5 | 2.42 | 4.41 | 3.11 |
Go to Top
Cagliari vs Torino at 06 Dec 2021
In this article I will analyze the game between Cagliari and Torino for Serie A (Italy).| Odds | Home | Draw | Away | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | 3.27 | 3.28 | 2.33 | 2.06 | 1.8 |
| Ours | 2.58 | 3.73 | 2.9 | 2.11 | 1.9 |
| Value % | 8.18 | -3.68 | -8.44 | -1.15 | -2.92 |
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home (8.18 %) so let's further analyze the game.
Basic Data and latest results
Cagliari
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
| Last 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 33 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| At Home | 1 | 3 | 4 | 25 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 3 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Nov | Verona | A | 0 | 0 | D | U | Ng |
| 26 Nov | Salernitana | H | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 21 Nov | Sassuolo | A | 2 | 2 | D | O | Gg |
| 06 Nov | Atalanta | H | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 01 Nov | Bologna | A | 0 | 2 | L | U | Ng |
| 27 Oct | Roma | H | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 24 Oct | Fiorentina | A | 0 | 3 | L | O | Ng |
| 17 Oct | Sampdoria | H | 3 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
Torino
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 39 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
| Last 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 44 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| At Away | 1 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 6 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Dec | Empoli | H | 2 | 2 | D | O | Gg |
| 28 Nov | Roma | A | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
| 22 Nov | Udinese | H | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 06 Nov | Spezia | A | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
| 30 Oct | Sampdoria | H | 3 | 0 | W | O | Ng |
| 26 Oct | Milan | A | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
| 22 Oct | Genoa | H | 3 | 2 | W | O | Gg |
| 17 Oct | Napoli | A | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
Playing style
| Cagliari | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open play | 108 | 10 | 10.93 | 167 | 17 | 19.55 |
| From corner | 29 | 2 | 2.42 | 53 | 5 | 3.67 |
| Direct Freekick | 8 | 0 | 0.43 | 10 | 3 | 0.55 |
| Set piece | 8 | 1 | 0.34 | 11 | 0 | 1.3 |
| Penalty | 3 | 3 | 2.28 | 4 | 4 | 3.05 |
| Torino | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open play | 144 | 17 | 15.09 | 103 | 11 | 9.34 |
| From corner | 38 | 1 | 4.2 | 23 | 2 | 2.98 |
| Set piece | 17 | 1 | 1.78 | 11 | 0 | 0.33 |
| Direct Freekick | 2 | 0 | 0.16 | 7 | 1 | 0.31 |
| Penalty | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2.28 |
| Cagliari | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Out of box | 61 | 2 | 1.84 | 105 | 6 | 3.27 |
| Penalty area | 83 | 11 | 10.22 | 120 | 20 | 17.99 |
| Six-yard box | 12 | 3 | 4.35 | 20 | 3 | 6.84 |
| Torino | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Out of box | 66 | 2 | 1.92 | 63 | 4 | 1.74 |
| Penalty area | 117 | 10 | 12.68 | 71 | 9 | 9.9 |
| Six-yard box | 18 | 7 | 6.63 | 13 | 3 | 3.61 |
| Cagliari | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-15 | 20 | 3 | 2.71 | 31 | 4 | 4.4 |
| 16-30 | 23 | 2 | 2.8 | 38 | 4 | 4.15 |
| 31-45 | 25 | 2 | 1.52 | 34 | 5 | 3.93 |
| 46-60 | 30 | 3 | 3.28 | 45 | 6 | 5.95 |
| 61-75 | 27 | 5 | 3.46 | 47 | 3 | 4.7 |
| 76+ | 31 | 1 | 2.63 | 50 | 7 | 4.98 |
| Torino | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-15 | 26 | 4 | 2.22 | 25 | 2 | 2.67 |
| 16-30 | 32 | 2 | 3.68 | 16 | 0 | 1.94 |
| 31-45 | 39 | 1 | 3.09 | 24 | 3 | 1.95 |
| 46-60 | 38 | 3 | 3.84 | 19 | 1 | 2.12 |
| 61-75 | 29 | 2 | 4.35 | 24 | 3 | 1.83 |
| 76+ | 37 | 7 | 4.05 | 39 | 7 | 4.73 |
Desicive Betting factors
| Factors | Cagliari | Torino |
|---|---|---|
| Form Score | -0.548 | -0.163 |
| Home/Away form | -0.61 | -0.607 |
| Off ability | 0.021 | -0.13 |
| Def ability | -0.539 | -0.704 |
Optimal equations estimations
The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:| Team | No-G | 1 gl | 2 gls | 3+ gls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cagliari | 26% | 38% | 19% | 17% |
| Torino | 32% | 31% | 24% | 13% |
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Cagliari and the red line for guest team, Torino.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Cagliari to score 1.06 goals and Torino to score 1.35 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.29 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Cagliari to score 1.26 goals and Torino to score 1.18 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.08 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
| Goals | Odds | Goals | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 0-1 | 3.5 |
| 1 | 4.95 | 2-3 | 2.08 |
| 2 | 4.15 | 4+ | 4.27 |
| 3 | 4.18 | Ov 1.5 | 1.4 |
| 4 | 6.85 | Un 1.5 | 3.5 |
| 5 | 15.15 | Ov 2.5 | 2.11 |
| 6+ | 45.45 | Un 2.5 | 1.9 |
| Gg | 2 | Ov 3.5 | 4.27 |
| NoG | 2 | Un 3.5 | 1.31 |
| If game ends with | -1- | -X- | -2- |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 goals | 2.36 | 3.4 | 3.53 |
| 2-3 goals | 2.76 | 4.14 | 2.53 |
| 4+ goals | 2.54 | 3.44 | 3.16 |
| Ov 1.5 | 2.68 | 3.88 | 2.7 |
| Un 1.5 | 2.36 | 3.4 | 3.53 |
| Ov 2.5 | 2.31 | 6.96 | 2.37 |
| Un 2.5 | 2.9 | 2.63 | 3.63 |
| Ov 3.5 | 2.54 | 3.44 | 3.16 |
| Un 3.5 | 2.6 | 3.83 | 2.83 |
| Goal-Goal | 3.31 | 2.72 | 3.03 |
| No Goal | 2.12 | 5.95 | 2.78 |
| G-G+Ov 2.5 | 2.54 | 5.65 | 2.33 |
| NG+Un 2.5 | 2.26 | 5.95 | 2.83 |