Football Italy – Serie A

Serie A
In this article we will analyse the following games: (with blue color are the value bets as estimated by the optimal equations method).
TeamsDateHomeDrawAwayOverUnder
Napoli - Atalanta04-Dec2.523.522.791.682.26
Milan - Salernitana04-Dec1.216.9513.991.52.58
Roma - Inter04-Dec3.773.7121.72.24
Bologna - Fiorentina05-Dec2.843.272.61.862
Sampdoria - Lazio05-Dec3.353.672.131.692.23
Spezia - Sassuolo05-Dec3.333.762.11.572.38
Venezia - Verona05-Dec3.523.342.11.971.89
Juventus - Genoa05-Dec1.265.9212.751.682.25
Empoli - Udinese06-Dec2.613.432.721.881.99
Cagliari - Torino06-Dec3.273.282.332.061.8

Click here to view the mathematical predictions for today!


Napoli vs Atalanta at 04 Dec 2021

In this article I will analyze the game between Napoli and Atalanta for Serie A (Italy).
OddsHomeDrawAwayOverUnder
Book2.523.522.791.682.26
Ours2.063.754.032.081.93
Value %8.86-1.74-11.03-11.457.57

According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Under (8.86 %, 7.57 %) so let's further analyze the game.


Basic Data and latest results

Napoli
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6321616342
Last 3111443230
At Home610907234
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
01 DecSassuoloA22DOGg
28 NovLazioH40WONg
21 NovInterA23LOGg
07 NovVeronaH11DUGg
31 OctSalernitanaA10WUNg
28 OctBolognaH30WONg
24 OctRomaA00DUNg
17 OctTorinoH10WUNg
Atalanta
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6510896451
Last 33001003121
At Away610907552
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
30 NovVeneziaH40WONg
27 NovJuventusA10WUNg
20 NovSpeziaH52WOGg
06 NovCagliariA21WOGg
30 OctLazioH22DOGg
27 OctSampdoriaA31WOGg
24 OctUdineseH11DUGg
17 OctEmpoliA41WOGg

Playing style

NapoliShGxGShAGAxGA
Open play1702115.3910958.55
From corner2021.592020.87
Direct Freekick1400.66500.35
Set piece1352.7910.79
Penalty745.33110.76
AtalantaShGxGShAGAxGA
Open play1792924.971241313.19
From corner3301.682522.05
Direct Freekick800.38500.32
Set piece700.63300.1
Penalty433.05322.28
NapoliShGxGShAGAxGA
Out of box9683.446301.86
Penalty area1111615.597387.71
Six-yard box1786.63811.74
AtalantaShGxGShAGAxGA
Own goals222000
Out of box7252.436121.75
Penalty area1392020.58881212.38
Six-yard box1855.71133.83
NapoliShGxGShAGAxGA
1-154144.761522.05
16-303253.823323.24
31-453954.852411.61
46-603795.082310.88
61-753533.782222.45
76+4063.382711.09
AtalantaShGxGShAGAxGA
1-153164.962243.48
16-304565.392531.99
31-453065.042832.54
46-603633.222613.23
61-753634.742623.82
76+5387.353342.89
The next graph represents the shots attempted and recieved for the Napoli and Atalanta within a specific timeframe of the game. The black line is the average and you can interpret it as a Heat Indicator.

Desicive Betting factors

FactorsNapoliAtalanta
Form Score0.2460.852
Home/Away form0.8090.933
Off ability11
Def ability0.104-0.237


Optimal equations estimations

The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:
TeamNo-G1 gl2 gls3+ gls
Napoli25%21%36%18%
Atalanta42%22%28%8%

The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Napoli and the red line for guest team, Atalanta.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Napoli to score 1.48 goals and Atalanta to score 1.37 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.85 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.11 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Napoli to score 1.47 goals and Atalanta to score 1.01 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and the home team Napoli to win by 0.46 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
GoalsOddsGoalsOdds
09.430-14.02
16.992-31.99
23.724+4.02
34.29Ov 1.51.33
46.37Un 1.54.02
512.82Ov 2.52.07
6+71.43Un 2.51.93
Gg2.31Ov 3.54.02
NoG1.76Un 3.51.33
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios? The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number! Use it and get great odds for your choices!
If game ends with-1--X--2-
0-1 goals2.862.354.45
2-3 goals1.6210.913.41
4+ goals2.82.175.53
Ov 1.51.894.663.91
Un 1.52.862.354.45
Ov 2.51.974.193.95
Un 2.52.163.414.11
Ov 3.52.82.175.53
Un 3.51.94.943.7
Goal-Goal2.552.694.25
No Goal1.85.353.88
G-G+Ov 2.52.283.373.79
NG+Un 2.51.975.353.75

Go to Top


Milan vs Salernitana at 04 Dec 2021

In this article I will analyze the game between Milan and Salernitana for Serie A (Italy).
OddsHomeDrawAwayOverUnder
Book1.216.9513.991.52.58
Ours1.723.696.712.531.65
Value %-24.5112.717.76-27.1421.85

According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Draw, Away, Under (12.71 %, 7.76 %, 21.85 %) so let's further analyze the game.


Basic Data and latest results

Milan
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6312566442
Last 3102333230
At Home511767434
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
01 DecGenoaA30WONg
28 NovSassuoloH13LOGg
20 NovFiorentinaA34LOGg
07 NovInterH11DUGg
31 OctRomaA21WOGg
26 OctTorinoH10WUNg
23 OctBolognaA42WOGg
16 OctVeronaH32WOGg
Salernitana
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6114222624
Last 3012111303
At Away115194752
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
30 NovJuventusH02LUNg
26 NovCagliariA11DUGg
21 NovSampdoriaH02LUNg
07 NovLazioA03LONg
31 OctNapoliH01LUNg
26 OctVeneziaA21WOGg
23 OctEmpoliH24LOGg
16 OctSpeziaA12LOGg

Playing style

MilanShGxGShAGAxGA
Open play1722219.13118129.94
From corner2743.034034.85
Set piece1512.24800.58
Direct Freekick1030.62800.41
Penalty433.05433.05
SalernitanaShGxGShAGAxGA
Open play112610.171872622.98
From corner3732.933133.26
Set piece910.95711.17
Direct Freekick500.361200.75
Penalty110.76211.52
MilanShGxGShAGAxGA
Own goals333222
Out of box9963.26631.76
Penalty area1161917.12971111.81
Six-yard box1054.741323.26
SalernitanaShGxGShAGAxGA
Own goals111222
Out of box6101.89123.58
Penalty area9188.731251915.97
Six-yard box1123.642188.14
MilanShGxGShAGAxGA
1-153664.722953.75
16-304354.492522.85
31-453954.042322.69
46-604144.792733.5
61-752764.382211.36
76+4275.655254.68
SalernitanaShGxGShAGAxGA
1-152101.433855.4
16-302501.044033.38
31-452812.134155.82
46-602954.274163.54
61-753133.73784.62
76+3022.614246.93
The next graph represents the shots attempted and recieved for the Milan and Salernitana within a specific timeframe of the game. The black line is the average and you can interpret it as a Heat Indicator.

Desicive Betting factors

FactorsMilanSalernitana
Form Score0.063-0.541
Home/Away form0.411-0.504
Off ability1-0.591
Def ability-0.217-1


Optimal equations estimations

The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:
TeamNo-G1 gl2 gls3+ gls
Milan23%18%40%20%
Salernitana67%2%27%4%

The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Milan and the red line for guest team, Salernitana.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Milan to score 2.72 goals and Salernitana to score 0.43 goals. So, they expect a total of 3.15 goals in the game and the home team Milan to win by 2.29 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Milan to score 1.56 goals and Salernitana to score 0.69 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.25 goals in the game and the home team Milan to win by 0.87 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
GoalsOddsGoalsOdds
06.580-13.64
18.132-31.9
23.044+5.08
35.08Ov 1.51.38
48.55Un 1.53.64
514.08Ov 2.52.54
6+111.11Un 2.51.66
Gg3.92Ov 3.55.08
NoG1.35Un 3.51.25
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios? The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number! Use it and get great odds for your choices!
If game ends with-1--X--2-
0-1 goals2.311.8168.75
2-3 goals1.3175.334.42
4+ goals3.521.717.58
Ov 1.51.576.134.99
Un 1.52.311.8168.75
Ov 2.52.023.434.69
Un 2.51.573.99.29
Ov 3.53.521.717.58
Un 3.51.535.176.51
Goal-Goal4.052.163.45
No Goal1.444.899.91
G-G+Ov 2.542.193.41
NG+Un 2.51.574.899.25

Go to Top


Roma vs Inter at 04 Dec 2021

In this article I will analyze the game between Roma and Inter for Serie A (Italy).
OddsHomeDrawAwayOverUnder
Book3.773.7121.72.24
Ours2.533.792.9322
Value %13-0.57-15.87-8.825.36

According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Under (13 %, 5.36 %) so let's further analyze the game.


Basic Data and latest results

Roma
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6303505433
Last 3201672103
At Home511766334
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
01 DecBolognaA01LUNg
28 NovTorinoH10WUNg
21 NovGenoaA20WUNg
07 NovVeneziaA23LOGg
31 OctMilanH12LOGg
27 OctCagliariA21WOGg
24 OctNapoliH00DUNg
17 OctJuventusA01LUNg
Inter
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6510896215
Last 33001003112
At Away521718653
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
01 DecSpeziaH20WUNg
27 NovVeneziaA20WUNg
21 NovNapoliH32WOGg
07 NovMilanA11DUGg
31 OctUdineseH20WUNg
27 OctEmpoliA20WUNg
24 OctJuventusH11DUGg
16 OctLazioA13LOGg

Playing style

RomaShGxGShAGAxGA
Open play1871920.381011112.58
From corner4523.221511.65
Set piece2612.371511.52
Direct Freekick510.27510.28
Penalty211.52221.52
InterShGxGShAGAxGA
Open play1922524.49128810.64
From corner4744.552721.6
Penalty866.09332.28
Set piece500.341421.99
Direct Freekick510.41700.41
RomaShGxGShAGAxGA
Own goals111000
Out of box8822.74841.37
Penalty area1431717.1278811.43
Six-yard box3346.961244.75
InterShGxGShAGAxGA
Own goals000111
Out of box8042.777432.11
Penalty area1542524.78911011.07
Six-yard box2378.321312.74
RomaShGxGShAGAxGA
1-153102.222032.58
16-303313.372021.3
31-454274.661912.09
46-604555.463666.23
61-755747.842243.12
76+5774.232102.23
InterShGxGShAGAxGA
1-153865.32612.73
16-303644.642553.9
31-454264.12721.92
46-604986.953312.47
61-754868.262511.65
76+4466.624354.25
The next graph represents the shots attempted and recieved for the Roma and Inter within a specific timeframe of the game. The black line is the average and you can interpret it as a Heat Indicator.

Desicive Betting factors

FactorsRomaInter
Form Score-0.0870.837
Home/Away form0.4440.563
Off ability0.4421
Def ability-0.1570.333


Optimal equations estimations

The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:
TeamNo-G1 gl2 gls3+ gls
Roma28%27%30%15%
Inter33%27%26%14%

The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Roma and the red line for guest team, Inter.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Roma to score 1.09 goals and Inter to score 1.74 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.83 goals in the game and the guest team Inter to win by 0.65 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Roma to score 1.32 goals and Inter to score 1.22 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.1 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
GoalsOddsGoalsOdds
010.750-13.89
16.12-32.07
24.124+3.85
34.17Ov 1.51.35
46.41Un 1.53.89
512.2Ov 2.52
6+45.45Un 2.52
Gg2.07Ov 3.53.85
NoG1.93Un 3.51.35
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios? The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number! Use it and get great odds for your choices!
If game ends with-1--X--2-
0-1 goals2.952.763.34
2-3 goals2.136.712.62
4+ goals3.252.633.21
Ov 1.52.424.352.8
Un 1.52.952.763.34
Ov 2.52.385.052.62
Un 2.52.723.033.31
Ov 3.53.252.633.21
Un 3.52.364.482.84
Goal-Goal2.992.823.21
No Goal2.225.572.7
G-G+Ov 2.52.554.142.73
NG+Un 2.52.335.572.83

Go to Top


Bologna vs Fiorentina at 05 Dec 2021

In this article I will analyze the game between Bologna and Fiorentina for Serie A (Italy).
OddsHomeDrawAwayOverUnder
Book2.843.272.61.862
Ours2.333.83.252.271.79
Value %7.71-4.27-7.69-9.715.87

According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Under (7.71 %, 5.87 %) so let's further analyze the game.


Basic Data and latest results

Bologna
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6402674324
Last 3201672103
At Home512677444
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
01 DecRomaH10WUNg
28 NovSpeziaA10WUNg
21 NovVeneziaH01LUNg
07 NovSampdoriaA21WOGg
01 NovCagliariH20WUNg
28 OctNapoliA03LONg
23 OctMilanH24LOGg
17 OctUdineseA11DUGg
Fiorentina
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6303504542
Last 3201673330
At Away305385744
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
30 NovSampdoriaH31WOGg
27 NovEmpoliA12LOGg
20 NovMilanH43WOGg
06 NovJuventusA01LUNg
31 OctSpeziaH30WONg
27 OctLazioA01LUNg
24 OctCagliariH30WONg
18 OctVeneziaA01LUNg

Playing style

BolognaShGxGShAGAxGA
Open play1351112.231481514.46
From corner4475.471711.19
Set piece1110.35931.47
Direct Freekick600.56800.45
Penalty322.28553.81
FiorentinaShGxGShAGAxGA
Open play1281413.031151412.8
From corner3343.532312.49
Set piece1500.78932.15
Direct Freekick910.52300.16
Penalty553.81322.28
BolognaShGxGShAGAxGA
Own goals111111
Out of box8542.777542.36
Penalty area1001213.781021414.45
Six-yard box1343.34953.58
FiorentinaShGxGShAGAxGA
Own goals000111
Out of box7132.344201.23
Penalty area1071714.71001613.88
Six-yard box1244.611033.78
BolognaShGxGShAGAxGA
1-153221.82633.28
16-302413.253532.62
31-453012.242633
46-603963.733555.14
61-753143.283343.42
76+4376.583263.91
FiorentinaShGxGShAGAxGA
1-152823.361410.98
16-303443.681711.5
31-454175.832523.62
46-603564.383542.83
61-752231.882644.14
76+3022.523686.81
The next graph represents the shots attempted and recieved for the Bologna and Fiorentina within a specific timeframe of the game. The black line is the average and you can interpret it as a Heat Indicator.

Desicive Betting factors

FactorsBolognaFiorentina
Form Score0.3410.037
Home/Away form0.245-0.319
Off ability0.1260.304
Def ability0.243-0.704


Optimal equations estimations

The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:
TeamNo-G1 gl2 gls3+ gls
Bologna24%43%14%18%
Fiorentina39%27%25%9%

The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Bologna and the red line for guest team, Fiorentina.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Bologna to score 1.27 goals and Fiorentina to score 1.35 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.61 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.08 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Bologna to score 1.27 goals and Fiorentina to score 1.04 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.31 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.23 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
GoalsOddsGoalsOdds
010.640-13.07
14.312-32.11
24.274+4.98
34.18Ov 1.51.48
48Un 1.53.07
516.67Ov 2.52.27
6+62.5Un 2.51.79
Gg2.16Ov 3.54.98
NoG1.87Un 3.51.25
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios? The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number! Use it and get great odds for your choices!
If game ends with-1--X--2-
0-1 goals1.963.474.94
2-3 goals2.854.082.48
4+ goals2.073.793.94
Ov 1.52.563.992.79
Un 1.51.963.474.94
Ov 2.52.138.32.44
Un 2.52.522.674.38
Ov 3.52.073.793.94
Un 3.52.413.83.11
Goal-Goal3.412.752.92
No Goal1.835.73.6
G-G+Ov 2.52.566.572.19
NG+Un 2.525.73.47

Go to Top


Sampdoria vs Lazio at 05 Dec 2021

In this article I will analyze the game between Sampdoria and Lazio for Serie A (Italy).
OddsHomeDrawAwayOverUnder
Book3.353.672.131.692.23
Ours2.582.943.662.221.82
Value %8.916.77-19.63-14.1310.1

According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Draw, Under (8.91 %, 6.77 %, 10.1 %) so let's further analyze the game.


Basic Data and latest results

Sampdoria
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6204335551
Last 3201673221
At Home224336871
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
30 NovFiorentinaA13LOGg
27 NovVeronaH31WOGg
21 NovSalernitanaA20WUNg
07 NovBolognaH12LOGg
30 OctTorinoA03LONg
27 OctAtalantaH13LOGg
22 OctSpeziaH21WOGg
17 OctCagliariA13LOGg
Lazio
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6222444442
Last 3012111321
At Away124244752
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
02 DecUdineseH44DOGg
28 NovNapoliA04LONg
20 NovJuventusH02LUNg
07 NovSalernitanaH30WONg
30 OctAtalantaA22DOGg
27 OctFiorentinaH10WUNg
24 OctVeronaA14LOGg
16 OctInterH31WOGg

Playing style

SampdoriaShGxGShAGAxGA
Open play1271312.521672319.57
From corner2942.883735.08
Set piece1131.941210.86
Direct Freekick600.28810.53
Penalty110.76110.76
LazioShGxGShAGAxGA
Open play1242213.981432216.22
From corner2421.593522.72
Set piece1021.421111.04
Direct Freekick800.43400.17
Penalty433.05543.81
SampdoriaShGxGShAGAxGA
Own goals333111
Out of box6311.68653.22
Penalty area981510.631191414.85
Six-yard box1023.151997.73
LazioShGxGShAGAxGA
Out of box6442.066341.81
Penalty area942214.971182117.73
Six-yard box1233.421744.42
SampdoriaShGxGShAGAxGA
1-152533.063754.71
16-302622.733255.35
31-453254.423775.5
46-604143.123653.51
61-752221.253112.77
76+2853.815264.96
LazioShGxGShAGAxGA
1-152341.793264.48
16-303142.843354.79
31-453154.893173.97
46-603052.814003.8
61-752954.52663.88
76+2663.633653.04
The next graph represents the shots attempted and recieved for the Sampdoria and Lazio within a specific timeframe of the game. The black line is the average and you can interpret it as a Heat Indicator.

Desicive Betting factors

FactorsSampdoriaLazio
Form Score-0.373-0.059
Home/Away form-0.411-0.459
Off ability0.5790.157
Def ability-0.591-0.407


Optimal equations estimations

The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:
TeamNo-G1 gl2 gls3+ gls
Sampdoria34%5%51%11%
Lazio44%10%34%12%

The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Sampdoria and the red line for guest team, Lazio.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sampdoria to score 1.18 goals and Lazio to score 1.65 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.83 goals in the game and the guest team Lazio to win by 0.47 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sampdoria to score 1.38 goals and Lazio to score 1.14 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.24 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
GoalsOddsGoalsOdds
06.620-14.85
118.182-32.01
22.914+3.37
36.49Ov 1.51.26
45.32Un 1.54.85
510.42Ov 2.52.22
6+76.92Un 2.51.82
Gg2.72Ov 3.53.37
NoG1.58Un 3.51.42
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios? The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number! Use it and get great odds for your choices!
If game ends with-1--X--2-
0-1 goals9.811.366.06
2-3 goals1.5699.62.88
4+ goals6.461.614.5
Ov 1.52.174.183.33
Un 1.59.811.366.06
Ov 2.53.152.443.67
Un 2.52.253.533.67
Ov 3.56.461.614.5
Un 3.52.064.513.4
Goal-Goal3.831.944.49
No Goal2.184.193.31
G-G+Ov 2.53.781.964.43
NG+Un 2.52.234.193.63

Go to Top


Spezia vs Sassuolo at 05 Dec 2021

In this article I will analyze the game between Spezia and Sassuolo for Serie A (Italy).
OddsHomeDrawAwayOverUnder
Book3.333.762.11.572.38
Ours3.283.52.442.21.83
Value %0.461.98-6.64-18.2412.63

According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Draw, Under (0.46 %, 1.98 %, 12.63 %) so let's further analyze the game.


Basic Data and latest results

Spezia
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6114223524
Last 300301312
At Home214335634
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
01 DecInterA02LUNg
28 NovBolognaH01LUNg
20 NovAtalantaA25LOGg
06 NovTorinoH10WUNg
31 OctFiorentinaA03LONg
26 OctGenoaH11DUGg
22 OctSampdoriaA12LOGg
16 OctSalernitanaH21WOGg
Sassuolo
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6222446660
Last 3120563330
At Away313487770
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
01 DecNapoliH22DOGg
28 NovMilanA31WOGg
21 NovCagliariH22DOGg
07 NovUdineseA23LOGg
31 OctEmpoliH12LOGg
27 OctJuventusA21WOGg
23 OctVeneziaH31WOGg
17 OctGenoaA22DOGg

Playing style

SpeziaShGxGShAGAxGA
Open play13812121842316.79
From corner1721.593134.44
Set piece711.271221.41
Direct Freekick500.231000.52
Penalty000765.33
SassuoloShGxGShAGAxGA
Open play1601918.911551315.11
From corner2924.033732.58
Direct Freekick800.5400.21
Set piece811.22932.23
Penalty221.52443.05
SpeziaShGxGShAGAxGA
Own goals111111
Out of box8052.228963.35
Penalty area7777.141442420.11
Six-yard box924.731034.03
SassuoloShGxGShAGAxGA
Own goals333111
Out of box8322.696912.07
Penalty area1061514.931211716.02
Six-yard box1545.561844.09
SpeziaShGxGShAGAxGA
1-152642.092753.56
16-302702.974323.63
31-452010.764376.8
46-602842.564554.8
61-752923.674585.34
76+3743.044174.36
SassuoloShGxGShAGAxGA
1-153112.932822.58
16-303153.633422.45
31-453575.743554.69
46-603957.623754.85
61-753633.613323.93
76+3532.654274.67
The next graph represents the shots attempted and recieved for the Spezia and Sassuolo within a specific timeframe of the game. The black line is the average and you can interpret it as a Heat Indicator.

Desicive Betting factors

FactorsSpeziaSassuolo
Form Score-0.6510.015
Home/Away form-0.4360.059
Off ability-0.5051
Def ability-0.626-1


Optimal equations estimations

The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:
TeamNo-G1 gl2 gls3+ gls
Spezia38%22%33%7%
Sassuolo36%16%31%17%

The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Spezia and the red line for guest team, Sassuolo.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Spezia to score 1.25 goals and Sassuolo to score 1.75 goals. So, they expect a total of 3 goals in the game and the guest team Sassuolo to win by 0.5 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Spezia to score 1.09 goals and Sassuolo to score 1.3 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.21 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
GoalsOddsGoalsOdds
07.350-13.66
17.32-32.07
23.684+4.1
34.72Ov 1.51.37
46.62Un 1.53.66
512.5Ov 2.52.19
6+76.92Un 2.51.83
Gg2.51Ov 3.54.1
NoG1.66Un 3.51.32
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios? The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number! Use it and get great odds for your choices!
If game ends with-1--X--2-
0-1 goals3.592.014.48
2-3 goals2.4814.241.9
4+ goals7.182.12.6
Ov 1.53.184.852.09
Un 1.53.592.014.48
Ov 2.54.073.932
Un 2.52.823.212.99
Ov 3.57.182.12.6
Un 3.52.794.452.4
Goal-Goal4.632.652.46
No Goal2.754.432.43
G-G+Ov 2.54.233.142.25
NG+Un 2.52.654.432.81

Go to Top


Venezia vs Verona at 05 Dec 2021

In this article I will analyze the game between Venezia and Verona for Serie A (Italy).
OddsHomeDrawAwayOverUnder
Book3.523.342.11.971.89
Ours2.933.732.562.181.85
Value %5.72-3.13-8.56-4.891.14

According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Under (5.72 %, 1.14 %) so let's further analyze the game.


Basic Data and latest results

Venezia
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6213393433
Last 3102331212
At Home213395533
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
30 NovAtalantaA04LONg
27 NovInterH02LUNg
21 NovBolognaA10WUNg
07 NovRomaH32WOGg
31 OctGenoaA00DUNg
26 OctSalernitanaH12LOGg
23 OctSassuoloA13LOGg
18 OctFiorentinaH10WUNg
Verona
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6231505533
Last 3111442221
At Away043196743
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
30 NovCagliariH00DUNg
27 NovSampdoriaA13LOGg
22 NovEmpoliH21WOGg
07 NovNapoliA11DUGg
30 OctJuventusH21WOGg
27 OctUdineseA11DUGg
24 OctLazioH41WOGg
16 OctMilanA23LOGg

Playing style

VeneziaShGxGShAGAxGA
Open play9889.991872118.85
From corner16024213.38
Set piece720.971300.68
Direct Freekick600.291400.75
Penalty221.52433.05
VeronaShGxGShAGAxGA
Open play1302315.661531715.53
From corner2211.272923.53
Set piece1000.892041.8
Direct Freekick500.27800.4
Penalty443.05221.52
VeneziaShGxGShAGAxGA
Own goals000111
Out of box4701.3711243.68
Penalty area681110.171281717.12
Six-yard box1413.231934.9
VeronaShGxGShAGAxGA
Own goals000222
Out of box5661.899022.7
Penalty area971714.111051912.75
Six-yard box1855.131525.32
VeneziaShGxGShAGAxGA
1-151932.824733.01
16-302101.853923.5
31-451522.233632.35
46-602522.034455.51
61-751732.373966.77
76+3223.475565.56
VeronaShGxGShAGAxGA
1-154296.192712.66
16-302134.323112.77
31-451730.863532.11
46-603243.583665.05
61-752142.684135.16
76+3853.542115.03
The next graph represents the shots attempted and recieved for the Venezia and Verona within a specific timeframe of the game. The black line is the average and you can interpret it as a Heat Indicator.

Desicive Betting factors

FactorsVeneziaVerona
Form Score-0.270.133
Home/Away form-0.344-0.407
Off ability-0.5050.539
Def ability-0.243-0.607


Optimal equations estimations

The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:
TeamNo-G1 gl2 gls3+ gls
Venezia33%31%24%11%
Verona36%19%30%15%

The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Venezia and the red line for guest team, Verona.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Venezia to score 1.02 goals and Verona to score 1.48 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and the guest team Verona to win by 0.46 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Venezia to score 1.13 goals and Verona to score 1.24 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.11 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
GoalsOddsGoalsOdds
08.40-13.39
15.682-32.1
24.074+4.39
34.35Ov 1.51.42
47.09Un 1.53.39
514.29Ov 2.52.18
6+58.82Un 2.51.85
Gg2.34Ov 3.54.39
NoG1.75Un 3.51.3
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios? The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number! Use it and get great odds for your choices!
If game ends with-1--X--2-
0-1 goals2.612.484.68
2-3 goals2.778.071.94
4+ goals4.152.532.75
Ov 1.53.14.722.15
Un 1.52.612.484.68
Ov 2.53.255.092.02
Un 2.52.723.043.3
Ov 3.54.152.532.75
Un 3.52.714.332.5
Goal-Goal4.272.872.4
No Goal2.384.812.69
G-G+Ov 2.53.684.092.07
NG+Un 2.52.424.812.94

Go to Top


Juventus vs Genoa at 05 Dec 2021

In this article I will analyze the game between Juventus and Genoa for Serie A (Italy).
OddsHomeDrawAwayOverUnder
Book1.265.9212.751.682.25
Ours2.143.833.72.121.89
Value %-32.649.2219.18-12.358.47

According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Draw, Away, Under (9.22 %, 19.18 %, 8.47 %) so let's further analyze the game.


Basic Data and latest results

Juventus
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6303505324
Last 3201672103
At Home313485525
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
30 NovSalernitanaA20WUNg
27 NovAtalantaH01LUNg
20 NovLazioA20WUNg
06 NovFiorentinaH10WUNg
30 OctVeronaA12LOGg
27 OctSassuoloH12LOGg
24 OctInterA11DUGg
17 OctRomaH10WUNg
Genoa
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6042222424
Last 3012110212
At Away143295753
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
01 DecMilanH03LONg
28 NovUdineseA00DUNg
21 NovRomaH02LUNg
05 NovEmpoliA22DOGg
31 OctVeneziaH00DUNg
26 OctSpeziaA11DUGg
22 OctTorinoA23LOGg
17 OctSassuoloH22DOGg

Playing style

JuventusShGxGShAGAxGA
Open play1581417.251211111.07
From corner2513.342542.52
Set piece1211.59800.8
Penalty543.81211.52
Direct Freekick500.24300.11
GenoaShGxGShAGAxGA
Open play125910.421471918.16
From corner2021.883332.05
Set piece1610.472032.48
Direct Freekick700.34610.47
Penalty553.81332.28
JuventusShGxGShAGAxGA
Out of box7732.586211.54
Penalty area1141416.85881111.13
Six-yard box1436.8943.35
GenoaShGxGShAGAxGA
Own goals000111
Out of box7502.126952.08
Penalty area941613.261211814.94
Six-yard box411.541857.43
JuventusShGxGShAGAxGA
1-153856.393022.08
16-302543.11932.6
31-452512.483332.78
46-604615.472732.8
61-753643.732711.84
76+3555.052343.92
GenoaShGxGShAGAxGA
1-152611.933263.67
16-301911.013133.56
31-451801.632921.7
46-603422.923453.61
61-752731.973855.69
76+49107.464587.22
The next graph represents the shots attempted and recieved for the Juventus and Genoa within a specific timeframe of the game. The black line is the average and you can interpret it as a Heat Indicator.

Desicive Betting factors

FactorsJuventusGenoa
Form Score-0.008-0.37
Home/Away form-0.162-0.222
Off ability0.474-0.652
Def ability0.243-0.333


Optimal equations estimations

The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:
TeamNo-G1 gl2 gls3+ gls
Juventus25%29%28%18%
Genoa40%25%26%8%

The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Juventus and the red line for guest team, Genoa.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Juventus to score 2.4 goals and Genoa to score 0.45 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.85 goals in the game and the home team Juventus to win by 1.95 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Juventus to score 1.4 goals and Genoa to score 1.03 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and the home team Juventus to win by 0.37 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
GoalsOddsGoalsOdds
0100-13.6
15.622-32.04
23.984+4.33
34.17Ov 1.51.39
46.94Un 1.53.6
513.89Ov 2.52.12
6+66.67Un 2.51.89
Gg2.23Ov 3.54.33
NoG1.81Un 3.51.3
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios? The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number! Use it and get great odds for your choices!
If game ends with-1--X--2-
0-1 goals2.42.784.48
2-3 goals1.96.923.05
4+ goals2.482.574.81
Ov 1.52.054.483.45
Un 1.52.42.784.48
Ov 2.51.995.233.27
Un 2.52.293.094.17
Ov 3.52.482.574.81
Un 3.52.054.53.45
Goal-Goal2.742.793.62
No Goal1.815.513.75
G-G+Ov 2.52.34.23.05
NG+Un 2.51.985.513.61

Go to Top


Empoli vs Udinese at 06 Dec 2021

In this article I will analyze the game between Empoli and Udinese for Serie A (Italy).
OddsHomeDrawAwayOverUnder
Book2.613.432.721.881.99
Ours2.873.382.812.191.84
Value %-3.470.43-1.18-7.534.1

According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Draw, Under (0.43 %, 4.1 %) so let's further analyze the game.


Basic Data and latest results

Empoli
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6222445651
Last 3111443330
At Home215296871
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
02 DecTorinoA22DOGg
27 NovFiorentinaH21WOGg
22 NovVeronaA12LOGg
05 NovGenoaH22DOGg
31 OctSassuoloA21WOGg
27 OctInterH02LUNg
23 OctSalernitanaA42WOGg
17 OctAtalantaH14LOGg
Udinese
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6132334533
Last 3021222221
At Away133295634
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
02 DecLazioA44DOGg
28 NovGenoaH00DUNg
22 NovTorinoA12LOGg
07 NovSassuoloH32WOGg
31 OctInterA02LUNg
27 OctVeronaH11DUGg
24 OctAtalantaA11DUGg
17 OctBolognaH11DUGg

Playing style

EmpoliShGxGShAGAxGA
Open play1501412.571752323.17
From corner3733.84235.09
Set piece921.21400.49
Direct Freekick700.42400.16
Penalty443.05423.05
UdineseShGxGShAGAxGA
Open play1391213.481441614.08
From corner3633.822332.84
Set piece1232.341322.61
Direct Freekick610.23400.27
Penalty110.76332.28
EmpoliShGxGShAGAxGA
Own goals222333
Out of box8232.377112.11
Penalty area1051411.061431919.2
Six-yard box1845.622257.64
UdineseShGxGShAGAxGA
Own goals111111
Out of box7411.938142.44
Penalty area1071413.32891311.33
Six-yard box1244.381667.32
EmpoliShGxGShAGAxGA
1-152954.814776.03
16-302942.72833.6
31-453122.933645.51
46-602612.084776.76
61-754353.793645.38
76+4964.744534.66
UdineseShGxGShAGAxGA
1-152531.923543.32
16-303422.182744.36
31-453244.972533.82
46-602523.43974.03
61-752812.683134.02
76+5085.493032.53
The next graph represents the shots attempted and recieved for the Empoli and Udinese within a specific timeframe of the game. The black line is the average and you can interpret it as a Heat Indicator.

Desicive Betting factors

FactorsEmpoliUdinese
Form Score-0.048-0.163
Home/Away form-0.527-0.304
Off ability0.6110.217
Def ability-1-0.63


Optimal equations estimations

The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:
TeamNo-G1 gl2 gls3+ gls
Empoli35%19%36%10%
Udinese39%14%33%14%

The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Empoli and the red line for guest team, Udinese.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Empoli to score 1.32 goals and Udinese to score 1.28 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.6 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.04 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Empoli to score 1.2 goals and Udinese to score 1.22 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.02 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
GoalsOddsGoalsOdds
07.30-13.83
18.062-32.07
23.534+3.91
35Ov 1.51.35
46.29Un 1.53.83
512.05Ov 2.52.19
6+71.43Un 2.51.84
Gg2.53Ov 3.53.91
NoG1.66Un 3.51.34
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios? The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number! Use it and get great odds for your choices!
If game ends with-1--X--2-
0-1 goals3.581.915.12
2-3 goals2.117.892.14
4+ goals5.691.943.24
Ov 1.52.694.652.42
Un 1.53.581.915.12
Ov 2.53.43.452.4
Un 2.52.543.323.28
Ov 3.55.691.943.24
Un 3.52.464.542.69
Goal-Goal4.082.492.83
No Goal2.414.412.8
G-G+Ov 2.53.82.82.64
NG+Un 2.52.424.413.11

Go to Top


Cagliari vs Torino at 06 Dec 2021

In this article I will analyze the game between Cagliari and Torino for Serie A (Italy).
OddsHomeDrawAwayOverUnder
Book3.273.282.332.061.8
Ours2.583.732.92.111.9
Value %8.18-3.68-8.44-1.15-2.92

According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home (8.18 %) so let's further analyze the game.


Basic Data and latest results

Cagliari
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6033174533
Last 3030332212
At Home134257853
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
30 NovVeronaA00DUNg
26 NovSalernitanaH11DUGg
21 NovSassuoloA22DOGg
06 NovAtalantaH12LOGg
01 NovBolognaA02LUNg
27 OctRomaH12LOGg
24 OctFiorentinaA03LONg
17 OctSampdoriaH31WOGg
Torino
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6213393533
Last 3111442321
At Away115193616
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
02 DecEmpoliH22DOGg
28 NovRomaA01LUNg
22 NovUdineseH21WOGg
06 NovSpeziaA01LUNg
30 OctSampdoriaH30WONg
26 OctMilanA01LUNg
22 OctGenoaH32WOGg
17 OctNapoliA01LUNg

Playing style

CagliariShGxGShAGAxGA
Open play1081010.931671719.55
From corner2922.425353.67
Direct Freekick800.431030.55
Set piece810.341101.3
Penalty332.28443.05
TorinoShGxGShAGAxGA
Open play1441715.09103119.34
From corner3814.22322.98
Set piece1711.781100.33
Direct Freekick200.16710.31
Penalty000322.28
CagliariShGxGShAGAxGA
Out of box6121.8410563.27
Penalty area831110.221202017.99
Six-yard box1234.352036.84
TorinoShGxGShAGAxGA
Out of box6621.926341.74
Penalty area1171012.687199.9
Six-yard box1876.631333.61
CagliariShGxGShAGAxGA
1-152032.713144.4
16-302322.83844.15
31-452521.523453.93
46-603033.284565.95
61-752753.464734.7
76+3112.635074.98
TorinoShGxGShAGAxGA
1-152642.222522.67
16-303223.681601.94
31-453913.092431.95
46-603833.841912.12
61-752924.352431.83
76+3774.053974.73
The next graph represents the shots attempted and recieved for the Cagliari and Torino within a specific timeframe of the game. The black line is the average and you can interpret it as a Heat Indicator.

Desicive Betting factors

FactorsCagliariTorino
Form Score-0.548-0.163
Home/Away form-0.61-0.607
Off ability0.021-0.13
Def ability-0.539-0.704


Optimal equations estimations

The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:
TeamNo-G1 gl2 gls3+ gls
Cagliari26%38%19%17%
Torino32%31%24%13%

The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Cagliari and the red line for guest team, Torino.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Cagliari to score 1.06 goals and Torino to score 1.35 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.29 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Cagliari to score 1.26 goals and Torino to score 1.18 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.08 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
GoalsOddsGoalsOdds
011.90-13.5
14.952-32.08
24.154+4.27
34.18Ov 1.51.4
46.85Un 1.53.5
515.15Ov 2.52.11
6+45.45Un 2.51.9
Gg2Ov 3.54.27
NoG2Un 3.51.31
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios? The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number! Use it and get great odds for your choices!
If game ends with-1--X--2-
0-1 goals2.363.43.53
2-3 goals2.764.142.53
4+ goals2.543.443.16
Ov 1.52.683.882.7
Un 1.52.363.43.53
Ov 2.52.316.962.37
Un 2.52.92.633.63
Ov 3.52.543.443.16
Un 3.52.63.832.83
Goal-Goal3.312.723.03
No Goal2.125.952.78
G-G+Ov 2.52.545.652.33
NG+Un 2.52.265.952.83

Go to Top