Football Italy – Serie B

Serie B
In this article we will analyse the following games: (with blue color are the value bets as estimated by the optimal equations method).
TeamsDateHomeDrawAwayOverUnder
Perugia - Vicenza03-Dec2.043.094.322.31.62
Frosinone - Ternana04-Dec1.823.534.191.851.97
Lecce - Reggina04-Dec1.683.674.781.861.95
Crotone - Spal04-Dec2.43.1631.961.86
Benevento - Pordenone04-Dec1.573.795.861.951.86
Brescia - Monza05-Dec2.263.083.182.121.73
Ascoli - Parma05-Dec2.763.082.612.141.72

Click here to view the mathematical predictions for today!


Perugia vs Vicenza at 03 Dec 2021

In this article I will analyze the game between Perugia and Vicenza for Serie B (Italy).
OddsHomeDrawAwayOverUnder
Book2.043.094.322.31.62
Ours1.983.984.122.061.95
Value %1.49-7.241.125.07-10.45

According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Away, Over (1.49 %, 1.12 %, 5.07 %) so let's further analyze the game.


Basic Data and latest results

Perugia
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6222445524
Last 3120563203
At Home232436516
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
30 NovPisaA11DUGg
27 NovCittadellaH11DUGg
20 NovCrotoneH20WUNg
06 NovComoA14LOGg
01 NovSpalA21WOGg
28 OctRegginaH02LUNg
23 OctLecceA00DUNg
16 OctBresciaH10WUNg
Vicenza
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6114225533
Last 3102333221
At Away206255753
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
30 NovBeneventoH23LOGg
26 NovCrotoneA10WUNg
20 NovBresciaH23LOGg
06 NovAscoliA12LOGg
01 NovParmaA01LUNg
27 OctMonzaH11DUGg
23 OctTernanaA05LONg
16 OctRegginaH01LUNg

Desicive Betting factors

FactorsPerugiaVicenza
Form Score-0.048-0.496
Home/Away form-0.112-0.444
Off ability0.6110.652
Def ability-0.591-0.63


Optimal equations estimations

The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:
TeamNo-G1 gl2 gls3+ gls
Perugia20%32%29%19%
Vicenza40%31%19%10%

The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Perugia and the red line for guest team, Vicenza.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Perugia to score 1.38 goals and Vicenza to score 0.83 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.21 goals in the game and the home team Perugia to win by 0.55 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Perugia to score 1.48 goals and Vicenza to score 1.01 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and the home team Perugia to win by 0.47 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
GoalsOddsGoalsOdds
012.820-13.8
15.412-32
23.984+4.22
34.02Ov 1.51.36
46.71Un 1.53.8
514.71Ov 2.52.06
6+50Un 2.51.95
Gg2.06Ov 3.54.22
NoG1.94Un 3.51.31
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios? The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number! Use it and get great odds for your choices!
If game ends with-1--X--2-
0-1 goals2.13.374.38
2-3 goals1.775.154.17
4+ goals2.473.083.7
Ov 1.51.944.244.01
Un 1.52.13.374.38
Ov 2.51.856.313.33
Un 2.52.132.945.24
Ov 3.52.473.083.7
Un 3.51.874.364.24
Goal-Goal2.612.793.88
No Goal1.626.64.33
G-G+Ov 2.52.095.043.1
NG+Un 2.51.736.64.26

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Frosinone vs Ternana at 04 Dec 2021

In this article I will analyze the game between Frosinone and Ternana for Serie B (Italy).
OddsHomeDrawAwayOverUnder
Book1.823.534.191.851.97
Ours2.353.763.252.081.92
Value %-12.39-1.736.9-5.981.32

According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Away, Under (6.9 %, 1.32 %) so let's further analyze the game.


Basic Data and latest results

Frosinone
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6240565533
Last 3030332212
At Home251465653
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
30 NovCremoneseA11DUGg
27 NovPordenoneH22DOGg
20 NovLecceH00DUNg
06 NovBeneventoA41WOGg
01 NovCrotoneH21WOGg
28 OctAlessandriaA11DUGg
23 OctAscoliH21WOGg
16 OctCosenzaA11DUGg
Ternana
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6222446433
Last 3120563212
At Away223386643
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
29 NovCrotoneH10WUNg
26 NovLecceA33DOGg
20 NovCittadellaH11DUGg
06 NovAlessandriaA20WUNg
01 NovComoH12LOGg
27 OctCosenzaA13LOGg
23 OctVicenzaH50WONg
16 OctPordenoneA31WOGg

Desicive Betting factors

FactorsFrosinoneTernana
Form Score0.2620.074
Home/Away form0.012-0.059
Off ability0.5051
Def ability-0.591-0.281


Optimal equations estimations

The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:
TeamNo-G1 gl2 gls3+ gls
Frosinone25%30%32%13%
Ternana32%35%21%13%

The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Frosinone and the red line for guest team, Ternana.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Frosinone to score 1.68 goals and Ternana to score 0.92 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.6 goals in the game and the home team Frosinone to win by 0.76 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Frosinone to score 1.33 goals and Ternana to score 1.14 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.19 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
GoalsOddsGoalsOdds
012.50-13.82
15.492-31.99
23.894+4.27
34.07Ov 1.51.36
46.67Un 1.53.82
514.93Ov 2.52.08
6+58.82Un 2.51.93
Gg1.96Ov 3.54.27
NoG2.04Un 3.51.31
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios? The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number! Use it and get great odds for your choices!
If game ends with-1--X--2-
0-1 goals2.733.283.05
2-3 goals1.964.883.49
4+ goals3.252.793
Ov 1.52.253.943.32
Un 1.52.733.283.05
Ov 2.52.135.712.81
Un 2.52.612.843.79
Ov 3.53.252.793
Un 3.52.174.183.33
Goal-Goal2.792.733.64
No Goal2.036.112.91
G-G+Ov 2.52.224.852.91
NG+Un 2.52.096.113.04

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Lecce vs Reggina at 04 Dec 2021

In this article I will analyze the game between Lecce and Reggina for Serie B (Italy).
OddsHomeDrawAwayOverUnder
Book1.683.674.781.861.95
Ours1.893.984.522.11.91
Value %-6.61-2.121.2-6.141.07

According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Away, Under (1.2 %, 1.07 %) so let's further analyze the game.


Basic Data and latest results

Lecce
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6330675442
Last 3120562221
At Home430716452
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
30 NovSpalA31WOGg
26 NovTernanaH33DOGg
20 NovFrosinoneA00DUNg
07 NovParmaH40WONg
01 NovCosenzaH31WOGg
28 OctBresciaA11DUGg
23 OctPerugiaH00DUNg
16 OctAscoliA11DUGg
Reggina
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6204334433
Last 300302330
At Away322525416
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
30 NovAscoliH12LOGg
27 NovBeneventoA04LONg
21 NovCremoneseH12LOGg
05 NovCosenzaA10WUNg
01 NovCittadellaH01LUNg
28 OctPerugiaA20WUNg
24 OctParmaH21WOGg
16 OctVicenzaA10WUNg

Desicive Betting factors

FactorsLecceReggina
Form Score0.468-0.407
Home/Away form0.5020.193
Off ability0.5050.217
Def ability-0.217-0.407


Optimal equations estimations

The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:
TeamNo-G1 gl2 gls3+ gls
Lecce20%28%33%19%
Reggina39%35%17%8%

The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Lecce and the red line for guest team, Reggina.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Lecce to score 1.76 goals and Reggina to score 0.83 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.59 goals in the game and the home team Lecce to win by 0.93 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Lecce to score 1.51 goals and Reggina to score 0.94 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and the home team Lecce to win by 0.57 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
GoalsOddsGoalsOdds
012.660-13.85
15.522-31.93
23.794+4.5
33.92Ov 1.51.35
46.8Un 1.53.85
516.67Ov 2.52.1
6+66.67Un 2.51.91
Gg2.05Ov 3.54.5
NoG1.95Un 3.51.28
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios? The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number! Use it and get great odds for your choices!
If game ends with-1--X--2-
0-1 goals2.363.293.66
2-3 goals1.635.195.19
4+ goals2.223.084.44
Ov 1.51.774.314.94
Un 1.52.363.293.66
Ov 2.51.646.624.15
Un 2.52.192.934.94
Ov 3.52.223.084.44
Un 3.51.824.354.56
Goal-Goal2.252.834.92
No Goal1.646.514.21
G-G+Ov 2.51.795.373.91
NG+Un 2.51.776.514

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Crotone vs Spal at 04 Dec 2021

In this article I will analyze the game between Crotone and Spal for Serie B (Italy).
OddsHomeDrawAwayOverUnder
Book2.43.1631.961.86
Ours2.613.562.972.171.85
Value %-3.35-3.560.34-4.940.29

According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Away, Under (0.34 %, 0.29 %) so let's further analyze the game.


Basic Data and latest results

Crotone
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 601562615
Last 300300303
At Home143295844
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
29 NovTernanaA01LUNg
26 NovVicenzaH01LUNg
20 NovPerugiaA02LUNg
07 NovMonzaH11DUGg
01 NovFrosinoneA12LOGg
28 OctBeneventoH02LUNg
22 OctAlessandriaA01LUNg
16 OctPisaH21WOGg
Spal
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6213396433
Last 3102333221
At Away223384416
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
30 NovLecceH13LOGg
27 NovCosenzaA10WUNg
20 NovAlessandriaH23LOGg
06 NovCremoneseA11DUGg
01 NovPerugiaH12LOGg
28 OctAscoliA10WUNg
24 OctComoH11DUGg
17 OctCittadellaA00DUNg

Desicive Betting factors

FactorsCrotoneSpal
Form Score-0.968-0.2
Home/Away form-0.494-0.007
Off ability-0.9681
Def ability-1-0.356


Optimal equations estimations

The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:
TeamNo-G1 gl2 gls3+ gls
Crotone27%33%29%10%
Spal27%41%20%12%

The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Crotone and the red line for guest team, Spal.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Crotone to score 1.34 goals and Spal to score 1.15 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.19 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Crotone to score 1.24 goals and Spal to score 1.17 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.07 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
GoalsOddsGoalsOdds
013.890-13.69
15.032-31.92
23.694+4.74
34.02Ov 1.51.37
46.99Un 1.53.69
517.86Ov 2.52.17
6+83.33Un 2.51.85
Gg1.86Ov 3.54.74
NoG2.15Un 3.51.26
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios? The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number! Use it and get great odds for your choices!
If game ends with-1--X--2-
0-1 goals3.013.762.49
2-3 goals2.273.83.38
4+ goals3.32.932.81
Ov 1.52.493.53.19
Un 1.53.013.762.49
Ov 2.52.166.392.63
Un 2.53.192.593.33
Ov 3.53.32.932.81
Un 3.52.483.783.01
Goal-Goal2.92.573.76
No Goal2.356.462.38
G-G+Ov 2.52.165.562.8
NG+Un 2.52.386.462.48

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Benevento vs Pordenone at 04 Dec 2021

In this article I will analyze the game between Benevento and Pordenone for Serie B (Italy).
OddsHomeDrawAwayOverUnder
Book1.573.795.861.951.86
Ours1.814.0752.131.88
Value %-8.45-1.822.94-4.33-0.57

According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Away (2.94 %) so let's further analyze the game.


Basic Data and latest results

Benevento
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6303504433
Last 3201672221
At Home422585453
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
30 NovVicenzaA32WOGg
27 NovRegginaH40WONg
21 NovPisaA01LUNg
06 NovFrosinoneH14LOGg
01 NovBresciaH01LUNg
28 OctCrotoneA20WUNg
23 OctCosenzaH30WONg
17 OctCremoneseA11DUGg
Pordenone
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6123283524
Last 3111442212
At Away025103734
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
30 NovAlessandriaH20WUNg
27 NovFrosinoneA22DOGg
20 NovAscoliH01LUNg
06 NovBresciaA01LUNg
01 NovCremoneseH22DOGg
28 OctComoA01LUNg
24 OctPisaA11DUGg
16 OctTernanaH13LOGg

Desicive Betting factors

FactorsBeneventoPordenone
Form Score-0.032-0.274
Home/Away form0.087-0.674
Off ability0.084-0.104
Def ability-0.243-0.607


Optimal equations estimations

The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:
TeamNo-G1 gl2 gls3+ gls
Benevento17%34%25%23%
Pordenone43%33%17%7%

The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Benevento and the red line for guest team, Pordenone.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Benevento to score 1.79 goals and Pordenone to score 0.7 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and the home team Benevento to win by 1.09 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Benevento to score 1.54 goals and Pordenone to score 0.88 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and the home team Benevento to win by 0.66 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
GoalsOddsGoalsOdds
013.330-13.57
14.882-31.99
23.984+4.61
33.97Ov 1.51.39
46.99Un 1.53.57
517.54Ov 2.52.13
6+58.82Un 2.51.88
Gg2.13Ov 3.54.61
NoG1.88Un 3.51.28
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios? The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number! Use it and get great odds for your choices!
If game ends with-1--X--2-
0-1 goals1.893.734.91
2-3 goals1.724.495.08
4+ goals1.923.624.93
Ov 1.51.784.195.03
Un 1.51.893.734.91
Ov 2.51.597.824.11
Un 2.52.062.846.17
Ov 3.51.923.624.93
Un 3.51.784.195.02
Goal-Goal2.392.734.64
No Goal1.497.085.36
G-G+Ov 2.51.825.953.53
NG+Un 2.51.627.084.87

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Brescia vs Monza at 05 Dec 2021

In this article I will analyze the game between Brescia and Monza for Serie B (Italy).
OddsHomeDrawAwayOverUnder
Book2.263.083.182.121.73
Ours2.263.663.522.231.81
Value %0-5.15-3.04-2.33-2.55

According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at ( %) so let's further analyze the game.


Basic Data and latest results

Brescia
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6411725315
Last 3201672212
At Home322526534
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
01 DecParmaA10WUNg
27 NovPisaH01LUNg
20 NovVicenzaA32WOGg
06 NovPordenoneH10WUNg
01 NovBeneventoA10WUNg
28 OctLecceH11DUGg
23 OctCremoneseH10WUNg
16 OctPerugiaA01LUNg
Monza
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6330676524
Last 3210783321
At Away062255626
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
30 NovCosenzaH41WOGg
27 NovAscoliA11DUGg
21 NovComoH32WOGg
07 NovCrotoneA11DUGg
01 NovAlessandriaH10WUNg
27 OctVicenzaA11DUGg
23 OctCittadellaH10WUNg
17 OctParmaA00DUNg

Desicive Betting factors

FactorsBresciaMonza
Form Score0.460.519
Home/Away form-0.029-0.215
Off ability0.4741
Def ability0.191-0.704


Optimal equations estimations

The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:
TeamNo-G1 gl2 gls3+ gls
Brescia22%39%23%16%
Monza36%34%20%11%

The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Brescia and the red line for guest team, Monza.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Brescia to score 1.31 goals and Monza to score 1.03 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.34 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.28 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Brescia to score 1.33 goals and Monza to score 1.05 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.28 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
GoalsOddsGoalsOdds
012.50-13.39
14.652-32.04
23.914+4.67
34.26Ov 1.51.42
47.09Un 1.53.39
517.86Ov 2.52.23
6+58.82Un 2.51.81
Gg2.01Ov 3.54.67
NoG1.99Un 3.51.27
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios? The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number! Use it and get great odds for your choices!
If game ends with-1--X--2-
0-1 goals2.113.693.93
2-3 goals2.263.753.43
4+ goals2.463.513.24
Ov 1.52.323.673.37
Un 1.52.113.693.93
Ov 2.52.027.362.7
Un 2.52.482.614.67
Ov 3.52.463.513.24
Un 3.52.23.733.61
Goal-Goal3.042.593.51
No Goal1.796.283.54
G-G+Ov 2.52.246.022.58
NG+Un 2.51.896.283.56

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Ascoli vs Parma at 05 Dec 2021

In this article I will analyze the game between Ascoli and Parma for Serie B (Italy).
OddsHomeDrawAwayOverUnder
Book2.763.082.612.141.72
Ours2.363.823.182.021.98
Value %6.14-6.29-6.872.78-7.63

According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Over (6.14 %, 2.78 %) so let's further analyze the game.


Basic Data and latest results

Ascoli
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6321615524
Last 3210783212
At Home223385625
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
30 NovRegginaA21WOGg
27 NovMonzaH11DUGg
20 NovPordenoneA10WUNg
06 NovVicenzaH21WOGg
01 NovPisaA11DUGg
28 OctSpalH01LUNg
23 OctFrosinoneA12LOGg
16 OctLecceH11DUGg
Parma
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6222444524
Last 3021222303
At Away233387771
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
01 DecBresciaH01LUNg
28 NovComoA11DUGg
21 NovCosenzaH11DUGg
07 NovLecceA04LONg
01 NovVicenzaH10WUNg
28 OctCittadellaA21WOGg
24 OctRegginaA12LOGg
17 OctMonzaH00DUNg

Desicive Betting factors

FactorsAscoliParma
Form Score0.349-0.074
Home/Away form-0.32-0.119
Off ability0.6110.157
Def ability-0.591-0.704


Optimal equations estimations

The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:
TeamNo-G1 gl2 gls3+ gls
Ascoli25%27%35%13%
Parma32%34%21%14%

The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Ascoli and the red line for guest team, Parma.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Ascoli to score 1.14 goals and Parma to score 1.19 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.05 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Ascoli to score 1.35 goals and Parma to score 1.17 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.18 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
GoalsOddsGoalsOdds
012.660-14
15.852-31.98
23.924+4.08
34Ov 1.51.33
46.49Un 1.54
513.51Ov 2.52.02
6+58.82Un 2.51.98
Gg1.95Ov 3.54.08
NoG2.05Un 3.51.32
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios? The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number! Use it and get great odds for your choices!
If game ends with-1--X--2-
0-1 goals2.913.162.94
2-3 goals1.885.493.48
4+ goals3.52.692.92
Ov 1.52.224.13.28
Un 1.52.913.162.94
Ov 2.52.175.442.81
Un 2.52.582.953.66
Ov 3.53.52.692.92
Un 3.52.134.423.28
Goal-Goal2.732.83.61
No Goal2.066.162.83
G-G+Ov 2.52.244.632.96
NG+Un 2.52.116.162.99

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