Football – Portugal

Portugal
In this article we will analyse the following games: (with blue color are the value bets as estimated by the optimal equations method).
TeamsDateHomeDrawAwayOverUnder
Portimonense - Porto03-Dec8.644.71.381.881.94
Pacos Ferreira - Guimaraes04-Dec3.073.152.462.251.65
Tondela - Moreirense04-Dec3.873.591.951.921.9
Boavista - Maritimo04-Dec2.293.183.232.381.61
Benfica - Sp Lisbon04-Dec1.923.474.061.961.88
Sp Braga - Estoril05-Dec1.484.276.371.82.04
Gil Vicente - Famalicao05-Dec2.823.142.62.221.67
Santa Clara - Arouca05-Dec2.093.243.522.251.65

Click here to view the mathematical predictions for today!


Portimonense vs Porto at 03 Dec 2021

In this article I will analyze the game between Portimonense and Porto for Primeira Liga (Portugal).
OddsHomeDrawAwayOverUnder
Book8.644.71.381.881.94
Ours4.353.861.952.11.91
Value %11.414.63-21.18-5.570.81

According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Draw, Under (11.41 %, 4.63 %, 0.81 %) so let's further analyze the game.


Basic Data and latest results

Portimonense
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6312563224
Last 3201672121
At Home213392415
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
27 NovFamalicaoA30WONg
06 NovBelenensesH20WUNg
01 NovSp BragaA03LONg
24 OctEstorilH02LUNg
03 OctBenficaA10WUNg
26 SepVizelaH00DUNg
17 SepSanta ClaraH21WOGg
12 SepBoavistaA11DUGg
Porto
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 66001006560
Last 33001003230
At Away420786542
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
28 NovGuimaraesH21WOGg
07 NovSanta ClaraA30WONg
30 OctBoavistaH41WOGg
23 OctTondelaA31WOGg
02 OctPacos FerreiraH21WOGg
24 SepGil VicenteA21WOGg
19 SepMoreirenseH50WONg
11 SepSp LisbonA11DUGg

Desicive Betting factors

FactorsPortimonensePorto
Form Score0.1431
Home/Away form-0.2860.726
Off ability-0.3371
Def ability0.565-0.63


Optimal equations estimations

The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:
TeamNo-G1 gl2 gls3+ gls
Portimonense37%38%17%8%
Porto21%33%24%23%

The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Portimonense and the red line for guest team, Porto.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Portimonense to score 0.54 goals and Porto to score 2.03 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.57 goals in the game and the guest team Porto to win by 1.49 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Portimonense to score 0.96 goals and Porto to score 1.49 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and the guest team Porto to win by 0.53 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
GoalsOddsGoalsOdds
012.990-13.61
152-32.03
24.074+4.33
34.05Ov 1.51.38
46.49Un 1.53.61
517.24Ov 2.52.09
6+52.63Un 2.51.91
Gg2.01Ov 3.54.33
NoG1.99Un 3.51.3
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios? The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number! Use it and get great odds for your choices!
If game ends with-1--X--2-
0-1 goals3.553.62.27
2-3 goals4.74.011.86
4+ goals4.913.921.85
Ov 1.54.763.981.86
Un 1.53.553.62.27
Ov 2.54.058.11.59
Un 2.54.672.622.48
Ov 3.54.913.921.85
Un 3.54.213.851.99
Goal-Goal4.932.742.32
No Goal3.96.531.69
G-G+Ov 2.53.716.361.74
NG+Un 2.53.576.531.9

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Pacos Ferreira vs Guimaraes at 04 Dec 2021

In this article I will analyze the game between Pacos Ferreira and Guimaraes for Primeira Liga (Portugal).
OddsHomeDrawAwayOverUnder
Book3.073.152.462.251.65
Ours1.933.864.461.922.09
Value %19.24-5.84-18.237.64-12.76

According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Over (19.24 %, 7.64 %) so let's further analyze the game.


Basic Data and latest results

Pacos Ferreira
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6033173524
Last 3012111303
At Home132333324
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
28 NovMaritimoA02LUNg
07 NovSp LisbonH02LUNg
01 NovMoreirenseA11DUGg
24 OctAroucaH00DUNg
02 OctPortoA12LOGg
27 SepBelenensesH22DOGg
19 SepVizelaA11DUGg
11 SepSp BragaH00DUNg
Guimaraes
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6303505651
Last 3102332321
At Away132333433
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
28 NovPortoA12LOGg
06 NovMoreirenseH21WOGg
30 OctSp LisbonA01LUNg
22 OctMaritimoH21WOGg
01 OctFamalicaoA21WOGg
25 SepBenficaH13LOGg
18 SepAroucaA22DOGg
12 SepBelenensesH00DUNg

Desicive Betting factors

FactorsPacos FerreiraGuimaraes
Form Score-0.643-0.015
Home/Away form-0.394-0.17
Off ability-0.5470.591
Def ability-0.626-1


Optimal equations estimations

The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:
TeamNo-G1 gl2 gls3+ gls
Pacos Ferreira18%31%26%25%
Guimaraes29%51%5%14%

The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Pacos Ferreira and the red line for guest team, Guimaraes.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Pacos Ferreira to score 1.04 goals and Guimaraes to score 1.21 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.24 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.17 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Pacos Ferreira to score 1.58 goals and Guimaraes to score 1.04 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.62 goals in the game and the home team Pacos Ferreira to win by 0.54 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
GoalsOddsGoalsOdds
019.230-14.27
15.492-32.02
24.084+3.69
34Ov 1.51.31
45.43Un 1.54.27
519.61Ov 2.51.92
6+27.78Un 2.52.09
Gg1.72Ov 3.53.69
NoG2.38Un 3.51.37
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios? The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number! Use it and get great odds for your choices!
If game ends with-1--X--2-
0-1 goals2.574.52.57
2-3 goals1.733.139.71
4+ goals1.945.533.3
Ov 1.51.83.75.76
Un 1.52.574.52.57
Ov 2.51.510.634.2
Un 2.52.832.284.79
Ov 3.51.945.533.3
Un 3.51.933.475.13
Goal-Goal2.112.85.92
No Goal1.748.083.33
G-G+Ov 2.51.538.614.31
NG+Un 2.51.98.083.21

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Tondela vs Moreirense at 04 Dec 2021

In this article I will analyze the game between Tondela and Moreirense for Primeira Liga (Portugal).
OddsHomeDrawAwayOverUnder
Book3.873.591.951.921.9
Ours2.353.653.322.31.77
Value %16.71-0.46-21.16-8.613.87

According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Under (16.71 %, 3.87 %) so let's further analyze the game.


Basic Data and latest results

Tondela
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6303504533
Last 3102331312
At Home303505560
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
28 NovSp LisbonA02LUNg
07 NovMaritimoH42WOGg
29 OctAroucaA02LUNg
23 OctPortoH13LOGg
03 OctBelenensesA20WUNg
25 SepFamalicaoH32WOGg
20 SepSp BragaA13LOGg
13 SepEstorilH12LOGg
Moreirense
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6132334533
Last 3021223321
At Away033173533
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
26 NovGil VicenteH22DOGg
06 NovGuimaraesA12LOGg
01 NovPacos FerreiraH11DUGg
23 OctSp LisbonA01LUNg
01 OctMaritimoA00DUNg
25 SepAroucaH21WOGg
19 SepPortoA05LONg
12 SepFamalicaoH22DOGg

Desicive Betting factors

FactorsTondelaMoreirense
Form Score-0.135-0.207
Home/Away form-0.145-0.504
Off ability-0.0530.278
Def ability-0.652-0.704


Optimal equations estimations

The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:
TeamNo-G1 gl2 gls3+ gls
Tondela27%35%22%16%
Moreirense37%32%21%10%

The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Tondela and the red line for guest team, Moreirense.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Tondela to score 0.96 goals and Moreirense to score 1.57 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and the guest team Moreirense to win by 0.61 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Tondela to score 1.27 goals and Moreirense to score 1.04 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.31 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.23 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
GoalsOddsGoalsOdds
0100-13.16
14.632-32.09
24.024+4.9
34.35Ov 1.51.46
47.52Un 1.53.16
518.18Ov 2.52.3
6+62.5Un 2.51.77
Gg2.18Ov 3.54.9
NoG1.85Un 3.51.26
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios? The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number! Use it and get great odds for your choices!
If game ends with-1--X--2-
0-1 goals2.473.163.59
2-3 goals2.284.283.05
4+ goals2.343.293.71
Ov 1.52.33.933.22
Un 1.52.473.163.59
Ov 2.5272.8
Un 2.52.722.673.9
Ov 3.52.343.293.71
Un 3.52.353.753.24
Goal-Goal2.922.643.59
No Goal2.015.43.14
G-G+Ov 2.52.215.62.71
NG+Un 2.52.185.43.12

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Boavista vs Maritimo at 04 Dec 2021

In this article I will analyze the game between Boavista and Maritimo for Primeira Liga (Portugal).
OddsHomeDrawAwayOverUnder
Book2.293.183.232.381.61
Ours2.93.682.622.471.68
Value %-9.19-4.277.21-1.53-2.59

According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Away (7.21 %) so let's further analyze the game.


Basic Data and latest results

Boavista
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6033175542
Last 300303330
At Home231505324
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
27 NovAroucaA12LOGg
05 NovFamalicaoH25LOGg
30 OctPortoA14LOGg
25 OctBelenensesH00DUNg
03 OctSp BragaA22DOGg
27 SepEstorilH11DUGg
20 SepBenficaA13LOGg
12 SepPortimonenseH11DUGg
Maritimo
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6114224433
Last 3102333221
At Away114224542
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
28 NovPacos FerreiraH20WUNg
07 NovTondelaA24LOGg
31 OctGil VicenteH12LOGg
22 OctGuimaraesA12LOGg
01 OctMoreirenseH00DUNg
24 SepSp LisbonA01LUNg
18 SepFamalicaoA00DUNg
13 SepAroucaH22DOGg

Desicive Betting factors

FactorsBoavistaMaritimo
Form Score-0.667-0.459
Home/Away form-0.062-0.533
Off ability0.5470.33
Def ability-0.626-0.311


Optimal equations estimations

The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:
TeamNo-G1 gl2 gls3+ gls
Boavista34%37%18%11%
Maritimo39%19%34%9%

The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Boavista and the red line for guest team, Maritimo.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Boavista to score 1.22 goals and Maritimo to score 0.96 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.17 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.26 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Boavista to score 1.05 goals and Maritimo to score 1.12 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.17 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.07 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
GoalsOddsGoalsOdds
07.580-12.93
14.782-32.07
23.944+5.71
34.37Ov 1.51.52
48.77Un 1.52.93
519.23Ov 2.52.48
6+111.11Un 2.51.68
Gg2.48Ov 3.55.71
NoG1.68Un 3.51.21
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios? The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number! Use it and get great odds for your choices!
If game ends with-1--X--2-
0-1 goals2.372.585.25
2-3 goals3.336.91.8
4+ goals3.132.53.57
Ov 1.53.274.72.08
Un 1.52.372.585.25
Ov 2.53.085.771.99
Un 2.52.782.953.32
Ov 3.53.132.53.57
Un 3.52.854.082.47
Goal-Goal4.482.882.33
No Goal2.344.522.85
G-G+Ov 2.53.74.761.92
NG+Un 2.52.454.522.93

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Benfica vs Sp Lisbon at 04 Dec 2021

In this article I will analyze the game between Benfica and Sp Lisbon for Primeira Liga (Portugal).
OddsHomeDrawAwayOverUnder
Book1.923.474.061.961.88
Ours2.253.663.552.151.87
Value %-7.64-1.53.54-4.510.28

According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Away, Under (3.54 %, 0.28 %) so let's further analyze the game.


Basic Data and latest results

Benfica
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6411725433
Last 3210783221
At Home401804432
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
27 NovBelenensesA70WONg
07 NovSp BragaH61WOGg
30 OctEstorilA11DUGg
24 OctVizelaA10WUNg
03 OctPortimonenseH01LUNg
25 SepGuimaraesA31WOGg
20 SepBoavistaH31WOGg
11 SepSanta ClaraA50WONg
Sp Lisbon
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 66001006115
Last 33001003003
At Away410875323
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
28 NovTondelaH20WUNg
07 NovPacos FerreiraA20WUNg
30 OctGuimaraesH10WUNg
23 OctMoreirenseH10WUNg
02 OctAroucaA21WOGg
24 SepMaritimoH10WUNg
19 SepEstorilA10WUNg
11 SepPortoH11DUGg

Desicive Betting factors

FactorsBenficaSp Lisbon
Form Score0.51
Home/Away form0.4520.822
Off ability0.5791
Def ability-0.1570.704


Optimal equations estimations

The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:
TeamNo-G1 gl2 gls3+ gls
Benfica24%33%23%19%
Sp Lisbon32%42%14%13%

The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Benfica and the red line for guest team, Sp Lisbon.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Benfica to score 1.57 goals and Sp Lisbon to score 0.92 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and the home team Benfica to win by 0.65 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Benfica to score 1.37 goals and Sp Lisbon to score 1.07 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.3 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
GoalsOddsGoalsOdds
012.820-13.48
14.782-32.08
24.054+4.31
34.27Ov 1.51.4
46.54Un 1.53.48
518.18Ov 2.52.15
6+41.67Un 2.51.87
Gg1.95Ov 3.54.31
NoG2.05Un 3.51.3
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios? The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number! Use it and get great odds for your choices!
If game ends with-1--X--2-
0-1 goals2.683.682.81
2-3 goals2.063.464.41
4+ goals2.214.143.27
Ov 1.52.113.663.96
Un 1.52.683.682.81
Ov 2.51.778.323.17
Un 2.52.932.463.96
Ov 3.52.214.143.27
Un 3.52.263.543.64
Goal-Goal2.542.634.42
No Goal26.242.93
G-G+Ov 2.51.856.683.22
NG+Un 2.52.176.242.93

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Sp Braga vs Estoril at 05 Dec 2021

In this article I will analyze the game between Sp Braga and Estoril for Primeira Liga (Portugal).
OddsHomeDrawAwayOverUnder
Book1.484.276.371.82.04
Ours2.553.613.022.161.86
Value %-28.354.2817.41-9.264.74

According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Draw, Away, Under (4.28 %, 17.41 %, 4.74 %) so let's further analyze the game.


Basic Data and latest results

Sp Braga
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6321616442
Last 3201673230
At Home321615451
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
30 NovVizelaH41WOGg
07 NovBenficaA16LOGg
01 NovPortimonenseH30WONg
25 OctGil VicenteA10WUNg
03 OctBoavistaH22DOGg
26 SepSanta ClaraA11DUGg
20 SepTondelaH31WOGg
11 SepPacos FerreiraA00DUNg
Estoril
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6150446524
Last 3030333312
At Away420786424
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
29 NovSanta ClaraH22DOGg
06 NovVizelaA11DUGg
30 OctBenficaH11DUGg
24 OctPortimonenseA20WUNg
03 OctGil VicenteH22DOGg
27 SepBoavistaA11DUGg
19 SepSp LisbonH01LUNg
13 SepTondelaA21WOGg

Desicive Betting factors

FactorsSp BragaEstoril
Form Score0.3020.163
Home/Away form0.2950.667
Off ability11
Def ability-0.217-0.681


Optimal equations estimations

The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:
TeamNo-G1 gl2 gls3+ gls
Sp Braga27%35%22%16%
Estoril29%40%16%14%

The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Sp Braga and the red line for guest team, Estoril.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sp Braga to score 1.98 goals and Estoril to score 0.69 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.67 goals in the game and the home team Sp Braga to win by 1.29 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sp Braga to score 1.27 goals and Estoril to score 1.16 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.11 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
GoalsOddsGoalsOdds
012.50-13.45
14.762-32.1
24.054+4.29
34.35Ov 1.51.41
46.62Un 1.53.45
517.24Ov 2.52.16
6+41.67Un 2.51.86
Gg1.95Ov 3.54.29
NoG2.06Un 3.51.3
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios? The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number! Use it and get great odds for your choices!
If game ends with-1--X--2-
0-1 goals2.843.622.69
2-3 goals2.413.463.38
4+ goals2.533.882.88
Ov 1.52.453.593.2
Un 1.52.843.622.69
Ov 2.52.057.722.62
Un 2.53.232.463.51
Ov 3.52.533.882.88
Un 3.52.563.523.08
Goal-Goal2.892.63.72
No Goal2.276.072.53
G-G+Ov 2.52.116.272.72
NG+Un 2.52.46.072.61

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Gil Vicente vs Famalicao at 05 Dec 2021

In this article I will analyze the game between Gil Vicente and Famalicao for Primeira Liga (Portugal).
OddsHomeDrawAwayOverUnder
Book2.823.142.62.221.67
Ours43.822.052.41.72
Value %-10.46-5.6710.32-3.38-1.74

According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Away (10.32 %) so let's further analyze the game.


Basic Data and latest results

Gil Vicente
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6132335642
Last 3120563321
At Home123284533
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
26 NovMoreirenseA22DOGg
05 NovAroucaH11DUGg
31 OctMaritimoA21WOGg
25 OctSp BragaH01LUNg
03 OctEstorilA22DOGg
24 SepPortoH12LOGg
18 SepBelenensesA11DUGg
12 SepVizelaH22DOGg
Famalicao
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6213395542
Last 3111442321
At Away213395542
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
27 NovPortimonenseH03LONg
05 NovBoavistaA52WOGg
31 OctVizelaH11DUGg
23 OctSanta ClaraA20WUNg
01 OctGuimaraesH12LOGg
25 SepTondelaA23LOGg
18 SepMaritimoH00DUNg
12 SepMoreirenseA22DOGg

Desicive Betting factors

FactorsGil VicenteFamalicao
Form Score-0.206-0.133
Home/Away form-0.577-0.037
Off ability0.5470.539
Def ability-1-0.681


Optimal equations estimations

The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:
TeamNo-G1 gl2 gls3+ gls
Gil Vicente40%38%16%6%
Famalicao30%20%36%14%

The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Gil Vicente and the red line for guest team, Famalicao.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Gil Vicente to score 1.1 goals and Famalicao to score 1.17 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.27 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.07 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Gil Vicente to score 0.89 goals and Famalicao to score 1.33 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.22 goals in the game and the guest team Famalicao to win by 0.44 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
GoalsOddsGoalsOdds
08.260-13.16
15.132-31.96
23.764+5.68
34.12Ov 1.51.46
48.2Un 1.53.16
522.22Ov 2.52.39
6+111.11Un 2.51.72
Gg2.38Ov 3.55.68
NoG1.72Un 3.51.21
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios? The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number! Use it and get great odds for your choices!
If game ends with-1--X--2-
0-1 goals2.752.613.95
2-3 goals5.146.611.53
4+ goals4.892.712.35
Ov 1.55.074.821.68
Un 1.52.752.613.95
Ov 2.54.766.451.58
Un 2.53.592.942.62
Ov 3.54.892.712.35
Un 3.53.864.172
Goal-Goal6.192.962
No Goal3.194.792.09
G-G+Ov 2.55.065.291.63
NG+Un 2.53.124.792.27

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Santa Clara vs Arouca at 05 Dec 2021

In this article I will analyze the game between Santa Clara and Arouca for Primeira Liga (Portugal).
OddsHomeDrawAwayOverUnder
Book2.093.243.522.251.65
Ours2.43.613.262.041.96
Value %-6.18-3.162.274.58-9.59

According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Away, Over (2.27 %, 4.58 %) so let's further analyze the game.


Basic Data and latest results

Santa Clara
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6033174633
Last 3012112330
At Home123283533
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
29 NovEstorilA22DOGg
07 NovPortoH03LONg
31 OctBelenensesA12LOGg
23 OctFamalicaoH02LUNg
02 OctVizelaA11DUGg
26 SepSp BragaH11DUGg
17 SepPortimonenseA12LOGg
11 SepBenficaH05LONg
Arouca
GmsWsDsLsPt%ScConOvUn
Last 6222445433
Last 3210783212
At Away033173533
DateVersusAtScConResOUGg
27 NovBoavistaH21WOGg
05 NovGil VicenteA11DUGg
29 OctTondelaH20WUNg
24 OctPacos FerreiraA00DUNg
02 OctSp LisbonH12LOGg
25 SepMoreirenseA12LOGg
18 SepGuimaraesH22DOGg
13 SepMaritimoA22DOGg

Desicive Betting factors

FactorsSanta ClaraArouca
Form Score-0.6270.089
Home/Away form-0.602-0.422
Off ability0.0210.626
Def ability-1-0.333


Optimal equations estimations

The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:
TeamNo-G1 gl2 gls3+ gls
Santa Clara24%33%23%19%
Arouca26%48%9%17%

The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Santa Clara and the red line for guest team, Arouca.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Santa Clara to score 1.32 goals and Arouca to score 0.92 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.24 goals in the game and the home team Santa Clara to win by 0.4 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Santa Clara to score 1.37 goals and Arouca to score 1.17 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.2 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
GoalsOddsGoalsOdds
015.620-13.75
14.932-32.11
24.134+3.92
34.31Ov 1.51.37
45.99Un 1.53.75
517.86Ov 2.52.05
6+31.25Un 2.51.96
Gg1.8Ov 3.53.92
NoG2.27Un 3.51.35
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios? The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number! Use it and get great odds for your choices!
If game ends with-1--X--2-
0-1 goals3.074.172.3
2-3 goals2.142.985.04
4+ goals2.384.812.68
Ov 1.52.223.443.86
Un 1.53.074.172.3
Ov 2.51.829.192.92
Un 2.53.442.283.69
Ov 3.52.384.812.68
Un 3.52.413.323.53
Goal-Goal2.552.624.41
No Goal2.236.872.46
G-G+Ov 2.51.827.493.15
NG+Un 2.52.366.872.54

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