Portugal
In this article we will analyse the following games:
(with blue color are the value bets as estimated by the optimal equations method).
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Draw, Under (11.41 %, 4.63 %, 0.81 %) so let's further analyze the game.
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Portimonense and the red line for guest team, Porto.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Portimonense to score 0.54 goals and Porto to score 2.03 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.57 goals in the game and the guest team Porto to win by 1.49 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Portimonense to score 0.96 goals and Porto to score 1.49 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and the guest team Porto to win by 0.53 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios?
The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number!
Use it and get great odds for your choices!
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Over (19.24 %, 7.64 %) so let's further analyze the game.
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Pacos Ferreira and the red line for guest team, Guimaraes.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Pacos Ferreira to score 1.04 goals and Guimaraes to score 1.21 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.24 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.17 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Pacos Ferreira to score 1.58 goals and Guimaraes to score 1.04 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.62 goals in the game and the home team Pacos Ferreira to win by 0.54 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios?
The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number!
Use it and get great odds for your choices!
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Under (16.71 %, 3.87 %) so let's further analyze the game.
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Tondela and the red line for guest team, Moreirense.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Tondela to score 0.96 goals and Moreirense to score 1.57 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and the guest team Moreirense to win by 0.61 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Tondela to score 1.27 goals and Moreirense to score 1.04 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.31 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.23 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios?
The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number!
Use it and get great odds for your choices!
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Away (7.21 %) so let's further analyze the game.
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Boavista and the red line for guest team, Maritimo.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Boavista to score 1.22 goals and Maritimo to score 0.96 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.17 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.26 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Boavista to score 1.05 goals and Maritimo to score 1.12 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.17 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.07 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios?
The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number!
Use it and get great odds for your choices!
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Away, Under (3.54 %, 0.28 %) so let's further analyze the game.
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Benfica and the red line for guest team, Sp Lisbon.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Benfica to score 1.57 goals and Sp Lisbon to score 0.92 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and the home team Benfica to win by 0.65 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Benfica to score 1.37 goals and Sp Lisbon to score 1.07 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.3 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios?
The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number!
Use it and get great odds for your choices!
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Draw, Away, Under (4.28 %, 17.41 %, 4.74 %) so let's further analyze the game.
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Sp Braga and the red line for guest team, Estoril.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sp Braga to score 1.98 goals and Estoril to score 0.69 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.67 goals in the game and the home team Sp Braga to win by 1.29 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sp Braga to score 1.27 goals and Estoril to score 1.16 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.11 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios?
The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number!
Use it and get great odds for your choices!
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Away (10.32 %) so let's further analyze the game.
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Gil Vicente and the red line for guest team, Famalicao.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Gil Vicente to score 1.1 goals and Famalicao to score 1.17 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.27 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.07 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Gil Vicente to score 0.89 goals and Famalicao to score 1.33 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.22 goals in the game and the guest team Famalicao to win by 0.44 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios?
The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number!
Use it and get great odds for your choices!
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Away, Over (2.27 %, 4.58 %) so let's further analyze the game.
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Santa Clara and the red line for guest team, Arouca.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Santa Clara to score 1.32 goals and Arouca to score 0.92 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.24 goals in the game and the home team Santa Clara to win by 0.4 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Santa Clara to score 1.37 goals and Arouca to score 1.17 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.2 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios?
The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number!
Use it and get great odds for your choices!
| Teams | Date | Home | Draw | Away | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portimonense - Porto | 03-Dec | 8.64 | 4.7 | 1.38 | 1.88 | 1.94 |
| Pacos Ferreira - Guimaraes | 04-Dec | 3.07 | 3.15 | 2.46 | 2.25 | 1.65 |
| Tondela - Moreirense | 04-Dec | 3.87 | 3.59 | 1.95 | 1.92 | 1.9 |
| Boavista - Maritimo | 04-Dec | 2.29 | 3.18 | 3.23 | 2.38 | 1.61 |
| Benfica - Sp Lisbon | 04-Dec | 1.92 | 3.47 | 4.06 | 1.96 | 1.88 |
| Sp Braga - Estoril | 05-Dec | 1.48 | 4.27 | 6.37 | 1.8 | 2.04 |
| Gil Vicente - Famalicao | 05-Dec | 2.82 | 3.14 | 2.6 | 2.22 | 1.67 |
| Santa Clara - Arouca | 05-Dec | 2.09 | 3.24 | 3.52 | 2.25 | 1.65 |
Click here to view the mathematical predictions for today!
Portimonense vs Porto at 03 Dec 2021
In this article I will analyze the game between Portimonense and Porto for Primeira Liga (Portugal).| Odds | Home | Draw | Away | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | 8.64 | 4.7 | 1.38 | 1.88 | 1.94 |
| Ours | 4.35 | 3.86 | 1.95 | 2.1 | 1.91 |
| Value % | 11.41 | 4.63 | -21.18 | -5.57 | 0.81 |
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Draw, Under (11.41 %, 4.63 %, 0.81 %) so let's further analyze the game.
Basic Data and latest results
Portimonense
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 56 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| Last 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 67 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| At Home | 2 | 1 | 3 | 39 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Nov | Famalicao | A | 3 | 0 | W | O | Ng |
| 06 Nov | Belenenses | H | 2 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 01 Nov | Sp Braga | A | 0 | 3 | L | O | Ng |
| 24 Oct | Estoril | H | 0 | 2 | L | U | Ng |
| 03 Oct | Benfica | A | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 26 Sep | Vizela | H | 0 | 0 | D | U | Ng |
| 17 Sep | Santa Clara | H | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 12 Sep | Boavista | A | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
Porto
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 100 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 0 |
| Last 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 100 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| At Away | 4 | 2 | 0 | 78 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 2 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Nov | Guimaraes | H | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 07 Nov | Santa Clara | A | 3 | 0 | W | O | Ng |
| 30 Oct | Boavista | H | 4 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 23 Oct | Tondela | A | 3 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 02 Oct | Pacos Ferreira | H | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 24 Sep | Gil Vicente | A | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 19 Sep | Moreirense | H | 5 | 0 | W | O | Ng |
| 11 Sep | Sp Lisbon | A | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
Desicive Betting factors
| Factors | Portimonense | Porto |
|---|---|---|
| Form Score | 0.143 | 1 |
| Home/Away form | -0.286 | 0.726 |
| Off ability | -0.337 | 1 |
| Def ability | 0.565 | -0.63 |
Optimal equations estimations
The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:| Team | No-G | 1 gl | 2 gls | 3+ gls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portimonense | 37% | 38% | 17% | 8% |
| Porto | 21% | 33% | 24% | 23% |
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Portimonense and the red line for guest team, Porto.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Portimonense to score 0.54 goals and Porto to score 2.03 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.57 goals in the game and the guest team Porto to win by 1.49 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Portimonense to score 0.96 goals and Porto to score 1.49 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and the guest team Porto to win by 0.53 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
| Goals | Odds | Goals | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.99 | 0-1 | 3.61 |
| 1 | 5 | 2-3 | 2.03 |
| 2 | 4.07 | 4+ | 4.33 |
| 3 | 4.05 | Ov 1.5 | 1.38 |
| 4 | 6.49 | Un 1.5 | 3.61 |
| 5 | 17.24 | Ov 2.5 | 2.09 |
| 6+ | 52.63 | Un 2.5 | 1.91 |
| Gg | 2.01 | Ov 3.5 | 4.33 |
| NoG | 1.99 | Un 3.5 | 1.3 |
| If game ends with | -1- | -X- | -2- |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 goals | 3.55 | 3.6 | 2.27 |
| 2-3 goals | 4.7 | 4.01 | 1.86 |
| 4+ goals | 4.91 | 3.92 | 1.85 |
| Ov 1.5 | 4.76 | 3.98 | 1.86 |
| Un 1.5 | 3.55 | 3.6 | 2.27 |
| Ov 2.5 | 4.05 | 8.1 | 1.59 |
| Un 2.5 | 4.67 | 2.62 | 2.48 |
| Ov 3.5 | 4.91 | 3.92 | 1.85 |
| Un 3.5 | 4.21 | 3.85 | 1.99 |
| Goal-Goal | 4.93 | 2.74 | 2.32 |
| No Goal | 3.9 | 6.53 | 1.69 |
| G-G+Ov 2.5 | 3.71 | 6.36 | 1.74 |
| NG+Un 2.5 | 3.57 | 6.53 | 1.9 |
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Pacos Ferreira vs Guimaraes at 04 Dec 2021
In this article I will analyze the game between Pacos Ferreira and Guimaraes for Primeira Liga (Portugal).| Odds | Home | Draw | Away | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | 3.07 | 3.15 | 2.46 | 2.25 | 1.65 |
| Ours | 1.93 | 3.86 | 4.46 | 1.92 | 2.09 |
| Value % | 19.24 | -5.84 | -18.23 | 7.64 | -12.76 |
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Over (19.24 %, 7.64 %) so let's further analyze the game.
Basic Data and latest results
Pacos Ferreira
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 4 |
| Last 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| At Home | 1 | 3 | 2 | 33 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Nov | Maritimo | A | 0 | 2 | L | U | Ng |
| 07 Nov | Sp Lisbon | H | 0 | 2 | L | U | Ng |
| 01 Nov | Moreirense | A | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 24 Oct | Arouca | H | 0 | 0 | D | U | Ng |
| 02 Oct | Porto | A | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 27 Sep | Belenenses | H | 2 | 2 | D | O | Gg |
| 19 Sep | Vizela | A | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 11 Sep | Sp Braga | H | 0 | 0 | D | U | Ng |
Guimaraes
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 50 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 1 |
| Last 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 33 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| At Away | 1 | 3 | 2 | 33 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Nov | Porto | A | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 06 Nov | Moreirense | H | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 30 Oct | Sp Lisbon | A | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
| 22 Oct | Maritimo | H | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 01 Oct | Famalicao | A | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 25 Sep | Benfica | H | 1 | 3 | L | O | Gg |
| 18 Sep | Arouca | A | 2 | 2 | D | O | Gg |
| 12 Sep | Belenenses | H | 0 | 0 | D | U | Ng |
Desicive Betting factors
| Factors | Pacos Ferreira | Guimaraes |
|---|---|---|
| Form Score | -0.643 | -0.015 |
| Home/Away form | -0.394 | -0.17 |
| Off ability | -0.547 | 0.591 |
| Def ability | -0.626 | -1 |
Optimal equations estimations
The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:| Team | No-G | 1 gl | 2 gls | 3+ gls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacos Ferreira | 18% | 31% | 26% | 25% |
| Guimaraes | 29% | 51% | 5% | 14% |
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Pacos Ferreira and the red line for guest team, Guimaraes.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Pacos Ferreira to score 1.04 goals and Guimaraes to score 1.21 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.24 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.17 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Pacos Ferreira to score 1.58 goals and Guimaraes to score 1.04 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.62 goals in the game and the home team Pacos Ferreira to win by 0.54 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
| Goals | Odds | Goals | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.23 | 0-1 | 4.27 |
| 1 | 5.49 | 2-3 | 2.02 |
| 2 | 4.08 | 4+ | 3.69 |
| 3 | 4 | Ov 1.5 | 1.31 |
| 4 | 5.43 | Un 1.5 | 4.27 |
| 5 | 19.61 | Ov 2.5 | 1.92 |
| 6+ | 27.78 | Un 2.5 | 2.09 |
| Gg | 1.72 | Ov 3.5 | 3.69 |
| NoG | 2.38 | Un 3.5 | 1.37 |
| If game ends with | -1- | -X- | -2- |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 goals | 2.57 | 4.5 | 2.57 |
| 2-3 goals | 1.73 | 3.13 | 9.71 |
| 4+ goals | 1.94 | 5.53 | 3.3 |
| Ov 1.5 | 1.8 | 3.7 | 5.76 |
| Un 1.5 | 2.57 | 4.5 | 2.57 |
| Ov 2.5 | 1.5 | 10.63 | 4.2 |
| Un 2.5 | 2.83 | 2.28 | 4.79 |
| Ov 3.5 | 1.94 | 5.53 | 3.3 |
| Un 3.5 | 1.93 | 3.47 | 5.13 |
| Goal-Goal | 2.11 | 2.8 | 5.92 |
| No Goal | 1.74 | 8.08 | 3.33 |
| G-G+Ov 2.5 | 1.53 | 8.61 | 4.31 |
| NG+Un 2.5 | 1.9 | 8.08 | 3.21 |
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Tondela vs Moreirense at 04 Dec 2021
In this article I will analyze the game between Tondela and Moreirense for Primeira Liga (Portugal).| Odds | Home | Draw | Away | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | 3.87 | 3.59 | 1.95 | 1.92 | 1.9 |
| Ours | 2.35 | 3.65 | 3.32 | 2.3 | 1.77 |
| Value % | 16.71 | -0.46 | -21.16 | -8.61 | 3.87 |
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Under (16.71 %, 3.87 %) so let's further analyze the game.
Basic Data and latest results
Tondela
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 50 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
| Last 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 33 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| At Home | 3 | 0 | 3 | 50 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 0 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Nov | Sp Lisbon | A | 0 | 2 | L | U | Ng |
| 07 Nov | Maritimo | H | 4 | 2 | W | O | Gg |
| 29 Oct | Arouca | A | 0 | 2 | L | U | Ng |
| 23 Oct | Porto | H | 1 | 3 | L | O | Gg |
| 03 Oct | Belenenses | A | 2 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 25 Sep | Famalicao | H | 3 | 2 | W | O | Gg |
| 20 Sep | Sp Braga | A | 1 | 3 | L | O | Gg |
| 13 Sep | Estoril | H | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
Moreirense
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 33 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
| Last 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| At Away | 0 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Nov | Gil Vicente | H | 2 | 2 | D | O | Gg |
| 06 Nov | Guimaraes | A | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 01 Nov | Pacos Ferreira | H | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 23 Oct | Sp Lisbon | A | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
| 01 Oct | Maritimo | A | 0 | 0 | D | U | Ng |
| 25 Sep | Arouca | H | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 19 Sep | Porto | A | 0 | 5 | L | O | Ng |
| 12 Sep | Famalicao | H | 2 | 2 | D | O | Gg |
Desicive Betting factors
| Factors | Tondela | Moreirense |
|---|---|---|
| Form Score | -0.135 | -0.207 |
| Home/Away form | -0.145 | -0.504 |
| Off ability | -0.053 | 0.278 |
| Def ability | -0.652 | -0.704 |
Optimal equations estimations
The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:| Team | No-G | 1 gl | 2 gls | 3+ gls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tondela | 27% | 35% | 22% | 16% |
| Moreirense | 37% | 32% | 21% | 10% |
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Tondela and the red line for guest team, Moreirense.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Tondela to score 0.96 goals and Moreirense to score 1.57 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and the guest team Moreirense to win by 0.61 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Tondela to score 1.27 goals and Moreirense to score 1.04 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.31 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.23 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
| Goals | Odds | Goals | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 0-1 | 3.16 |
| 1 | 4.63 | 2-3 | 2.09 |
| 2 | 4.02 | 4+ | 4.9 |
| 3 | 4.35 | Ov 1.5 | 1.46 |
| 4 | 7.52 | Un 1.5 | 3.16 |
| 5 | 18.18 | Ov 2.5 | 2.3 |
| 6+ | 62.5 | Un 2.5 | 1.77 |
| Gg | 2.18 | Ov 3.5 | 4.9 |
| NoG | 1.85 | Un 3.5 | 1.26 |
| If game ends with | -1- | -X- | -2- |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 goals | 2.47 | 3.16 | 3.59 |
| 2-3 goals | 2.28 | 4.28 | 3.05 |
| 4+ goals | 2.34 | 3.29 | 3.71 |
| Ov 1.5 | 2.3 | 3.93 | 3.22 |
| Un 1.5 | 2.47 | 3.16 | 3.59 |
| Ov 2.5 | 2 | 7 | 2.8 |
| Un 2.5 | 2.72 | 2.67 | 3.9 |
| Ov 3.5 | 2.34 | 3.29 | 3.71 |
| Un 3.5 | 2.35 | 3.75 | 3.24 |
| Goal-Goal | 2.92 | 2.64 | 3.59 |
| No Goal | 2.01 | 5.4 | 3.14 |
| G-G+Ov 2.5 | 2.21 | 5.6 | 2.71 |
| NG+Un 2.5 | 2.18 | 5.4 | 3.12 |
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Boavista vs Maritimo at 04 Dec 2021
In this article I will analyze the game between Boavista and Maritimo for Primeira Liga (Portugal).| Odds | Home | Draw | Away | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | 2.29 | 3.18 | 3.23 | 2.38 | 1.61 |
| Ours | 2.9 | 3.68 | 2.62 | 2.47 | 1.68 |
| Value % | -9.19 | -4.27 | 7.21 | -1.53 | -2.59 |
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Away (7.21 %) so let's further analyze the game.
Basic Data and latest results
Boavista
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 |
| Last 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| At Home | 2 | 3 | 1 | 50 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Nov | Arouca | A | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 05 Nov | Famalicao | H | 2 | 5 | L | O | Gg |
| 30 Oct | Porto | A | 1 | 4 | L | O | Gg |
| 25 Oct | Belenenses | H | 0 | 0 | D | U | Ng |
| 03 Oct | Sp Braga | A | 2 | 2 | D | O | Gg |
| 27 Sep | Estoril | H | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 20 Sep | Benfica | A | 1 | 3 | L | O | Gg |
| 12 Sep | Portimonense | H | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
Maritimo
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| Last 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 33 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| At Away | 1 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Nov | Pacos Ferreira | H | 2 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 07 Nov | Tondela | A | 2 | 4 | L | O | Gg |
| 31 Oct | Gil Vicente | H | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 22 Oct | Guimaraes | A | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 01 Oct | Moreirense | H | 0 | 0 | D | U | Ng |
| 24 Sep | Sp Lisbon | A | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
| 18 Sep | Famalicao | A | 0 | 0 | D | U | Ng |
| 13 Sep | Arouca | H | 2 | 2 | D | O | Gg |
Desicive Betting factors
| Factors | Boavista | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| Form Score | -0.667 | -0.459 |
| Home/Away form | -0.062 | -0.533 |
| Off ability | 0.547 | 0.33 |
| Def ability | -0.626 | -0.311 |
Optimal equations estimations
The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:| Team | No-G | 1 gl | 2 gls | 3+ gls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boavista | 34% | 37% | 18% | 11% |
| Maritimo | 39% | 19% | 34% | 9% |
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Boavista and the red line for guest team, Maritimo.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Boavista to score 1.22 goals and Maritimo to score 0.96 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.17 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.26 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Boavista to score 1.05 goals and Maritimo to score 1.12 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.17 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.07 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
| Goals | Odds | Goals | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.58 | 0-1 | 2.93 |
| 1 | 4.78 | 2-3 | 2.07 |
| 2 | 3.94 | 4+ | 5.71 |
| 3 | 4.37 | Ov 1.5 | 1.52 |
| 4 | 8.77 | Un 1.5 | 2.93 |
| 5 | 19.23 | Ov 2.5 | 2.48 |
| 6+ | 111.11 | Un 2.5 | 1.68 |
| Gg | 2.48 | Ov 3.5 | 5.71 |
| NoG | 1.68 | Un 3.5 | 1.21 |
| If game ends with | -1- | -X- | -2- |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 goals | 2.37 | 2.58 | 5.25 |
| 2-3 goals | 3.33 | 6.9 | 1.8 |
| 4+ goals | 3.13 | 2.5 | 3.57 |
| Ov 1.5 | 3.27 | 4.7 | 2.08 |
| Un 1.5 | 2.37 | 2.58 | 5.25 |
| Ov 2.5 | 3.08 | 5.77 | 1.99 |
| Un 2.5 | 2.78 | 2.95 | 3.32 |
| Ov 3.5 | 3.13 | 2.5 | 3.57 |
| Un 3.5 | 2.85 | 4.08 | 2.47 |
| Goal-Goal | 4.48 | 2.88 | 2.33 |
| No Goal | 2.34 | 4.52 | 2.85 |
| G-G+Ov 2.5 | 3.7 | 4.76 | 1.92 |
| NG+Un 2.5 | 2.45 | 4.52 | 2.93 |
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Benfica vs Sp Lisbon at 04 Dec 2021
In this article I will analyze the game between Benfica and Sp Lisbon for Primeira Liga (Portugal).| Odds | Home | Draw | Away | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | 1.92 | 3.47 | 4.06 | 1.96 | 1.88 |
| Ours | 2.25 | 3.66 | 3.55 | 2.15 | 1.87 |
| Value % | -7.64 | -1.5 | 3.54 | -4.51 | 0.28 |
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Away, Under (3.54 %, 0.28 %) so let's further analyze the game.
Basic Data and latest results
Benfica
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 72 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| Last 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 78 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| At Home | 4 | 0 | 1 | 80 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Nov | Belenenses | A | 7 | 0 | W | O | Ng |
| 07 Nov | Sp Braga | H | 6 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 30 Oct | Estoril | A | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 24 Oct | Vizela | A | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 03 Oct | Portimonense | H | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
| 25 Sep | Guimaraes | A | 3 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 20 Sep | Boavista | H | 3 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 11 Sep | Santa Clara | A | 5 | 0 | W | O | Ng |
Sp Lisbon
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 100 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| Last 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 100 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| At Away | 4 | 1 | 0 | 87 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Nov | Tondela | H | 2 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 07 Nov | Pacos Ferreira | A | 2 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 30 Oct | Guimaraes | H | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 23 Oct | Moreirense | H | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 02 Oct | Arouca | A | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 24 Sep | Maritimo | H | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 19 Sep | Estoril | A | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 11 Sep | Porto | H | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
Desicive Betting factors
| Factors | Benfica | Sp Lisbon |
|---|---|---|
| Form Score | 0.5 | 1 |
| Home/Away form | 0.452 | 0.822 |
| Off ability | 0.579 | 1 |
| Def ability | -0.157 | 0.704 |
Optimal equations estimations
The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:| Team | No-G | 1 gl | 2 gls | 3+ gls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benfica | 24% | 33% | 23% | 19% |
| Sp Lisbon | 32% | 42% | 14% | 13% |
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Benfica and the red line for guest team, Sp Lisbon.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Benfica to score 1.57 goals and Sp Lisbon to score 0.92 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and the home team Benfica to win by 0.65 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Benfica to score 1.37 goals and Sp Lisbon to score 1.07 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.3 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
| Goals | Odds | Goals | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.82 | 0-1 | 3.48 |
| 1 | 4.78 | 2-3 | 2.08 |
| 2 | 4.05 | 4+ | 4.31 |
| 3 | 4.27 | Ov 1.5 | 1.4 |
| 4 | 6.54 | Un 1.5 | 3.48 |
| 5 | 18.18 | Ov 2.5 | 2.15 |
| 6+ | 41.67 | Un 2.5 | 1.87 |
| Gg | 1.95 | Ov 3.5 | 4.31 |
| NoG | 2.05 | Un 3.5 | 1.3 |
| If game ends with | -1- | -X- | -2- |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 goals | 2.68 | 3.68 | 2.81 |
| 2-3 goals | 2.06 | 3.46 | 4.41 |
| 4+ goals | 2.21 | 4.14 | 3.27 |
| Ov 1.5 | 2.11 | 3.66 | 3.96 |
| Un 1.5 | 2.68 | 3.68 | 2.81 |
| Ov 2.5 | 1.77 | 8.32 | 3.17 |
| Un 2.5 | 2.93 | 2.46 | 3.96 |
| Ov 3.5 | 2.21 | 4.14 | 3.27 |
| Un 3.5 | 2.26 | 3.54 | 3.64 |
| Goal-Goal | 2.54 | 2.63 | 4.42 |
| No Goal | 2 | 6.24 | 2.93 |
| G-G+Ov 2.5 | 1.85 | 6.68 | 3.22 |
| NG+Un 2.5 | 2.17 | 6.24 | 2.93 |
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Sp Braga vs Estoril at 05 Dec 2021
In this article I will analyze the game between Sp Braga and Estoril for Primeira Liga (Portugal).| Odds | Home | Draw | Away | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | 1.48 | 4.27 | 6.37 | 1.8 | 2.04 |
| Ours | 2.55 | 3.61 | 3.02 | 2.16 | 1.86 |
| Value % | -28.35 | 4.28 | 17.41 | -9.26 | 4.74 |
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Draw, Away, Under (4.28 %, 17.41 %, 4.74 %) so let's further analyze the game.
Basic Data and latest results
Sp Braga
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 61 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| Last 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 67 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| At Home | 3 | 2 | 1 | 61 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 1 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Nov | Vizela | H | 4 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 07 Nov | Benfica | A | 1 | 6 | L | O | Gg |
| 01 Nov | Portimonense | H | 3 | 0 | W | O | Ng |
| 25 Oct | Gil Vicente | A | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 03 Oct | Boavista | H | 2 | 2 | D | O | Gg |
| 26 Sep | Santa Clara | A | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 20 Sep | Tondela | H | 3 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 11 Sep | Pacos Ferreira | A | 0 | 0 | D | U | Ng |
Estoril
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 44 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 4 |
| Last 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 33 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| At Away | 4 | 2 | 0 | 78 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Nov | Santa Clara | H | 2 | 2 | D | O | Gg |
| 06 Nov | Vizela | A | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 30 Oct | Benfica | H | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 24 Oct | Portimonense | A | 2 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 03 Oct | Gil Vicente | H | 2 | 2 | D | O | Gg |
| 27 Sep | Boavista | A | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 19 Sep | Sp Lisbon | H | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
| 13 Sep | Tondela | A | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
Desicive Betting factors
| Factors | Sp Braga | Estoril |
|---|---|---|
| Form Score | 0.302 | 0.163 |
| Home/Away form | 0.295 | 0.667 |
| Off ability | 1 | 1 |
| Def ability | -0.217 | -0.681 |
Optimal equations estimations
The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:| Team | No-G | 1 gl | 2 gls | 3+ gls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sp Braga | 27% | 35% | 22% | 16% |
| Estoril | 29% | 40% | 16% | 14% |
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Sp Braga and the red line for guest team, Estoril.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sp Braga to score 1.98 goals and Estoril to score 0.69 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.67 goals in the game and the home team Sp Braga to win by 1.29 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sp Braga to score 1.27 goals and Estoril to score 1.16 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.11 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
| Goals | Odds | Goals | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 0-1 | 3.45 |
| 1 | 4.76 | 2-3 | 2.1 |
| 2 | 4.05 | 4+ | 4.29 |
| 3 | 4.35 | Ov 1.5 | 1.41 |
| 4 | 6.62 | Un 1.5 | 3.45 |
| 5 | 17.24 | Ov 2.5 | 2.16 |
| 6+ | 41.67 | Un 2.5 | 1.86 |
| Gg | 1.95 | Ov 3.5 | 4.29 |
| NoG | 2.06 | Un 3.5 | 1.3 |
| If game ends with | -1- | -X- | -2- |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 goals | 2.84 | 3.62 | 2.69 |
| 2-3 goals | 2.41 | 3.46 | 3.38 |
| 4+ goals | 2.53 | 3.88 | 2.88 |
| Ov 1.5 | 2.45 | 3.59 | 3.2 |
| Un 1.5 | 2.84 | 3.62 | 2.69 |
| Ov 2.5 | 2.05 | 7.72 | 2.62 |
| Un 2.5 | 3.23 | 2.46 | 3.51 |
| Ov 3.5 | 2.53 | 3.88 | 2.88 |
| Un 3.5 | 2.56 | 3.52 | 3.08 |
| Goal-Goal | 2.89 | 2.6 | 3.72 |
| No Goal | 2.27 | 6.07 | 2.53 |
| G-G+Ov 2.5 | 2.11 | 6.27 | 2.72 |
| NG+Un 2.5 | 2.4 | 6.07 | 2.61 |
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Gil Vicente vs Famalicao at 05 Dec 2021
In this article I will analyze the game between Gil Vicente and Famalicao for Primeira Liga (Portugal).| Odds | Home | Draw | Away | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | 2.82 | 3.14 | 2.6 | 2.22 | 1.67 |
| Ours | 4 | 3.82 | 2.05 | 2.4 | 1.72 |
| Value % | -10.46 | -5.67 | 10.32 | -3.38 | -1.74 |
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Away (10.32 %) so let's further analyze the game.
Basic Data and latest results
Gil Vicente
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 33 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 |
| Last 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 56 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| At Home | 1 | 2 | 3 | 28 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Nov | Moreirense | A | 2 | 2 | D | O | Gg |
| 05 Nov | Arouca | H | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 31 Oct | Maritimo | A | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 25 Oct | Sp Braga | H | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
| 03 Oct | Estoril | A | 2 | 2 | D | O | Gg |
| 24 Sep | Porto | H | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 18 Sep | Belenenses | A | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 12 Sep | Vizela | H | 2 | 2 | D | O | Gg |
Famalicao
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 39 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 |
| Last 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 44 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| At Away | 2 | 1 | 3 | 39 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Nov | Portimonense | H | 0 | 3 | L | O | Ng |
| 05 Nov | Boavista | A | 5 | 2 | W | O | Gg |
| 31 Oct | Vizela | H | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 23 Oct | Santa Clara | A | 2 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 01 Oct | Guimaraes | H | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 25 Sep | Tondela | A | 2 | 3 | L | O | Gg |
| 18 Sep | Maritimo | H | 0 | 0 | D | U | Ng |
| 12 Sep | Moreirense | A | 2 | 2 | D | O | Gg |
Desicive Betting factors
| Factors | Gil Vicente | Famalicao |
|---|---|---|
| Form Score | -0.206 | -0.133 |
| Home/Away form | -0.577 | -0.037 |
| Off ability | 0.547 | 0.539 |
| Def ability | -1 | -0.681 |
Optimal equations estimations
The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:| Team | No-G | 1 gl | 2 gls | 3+ gls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gil Vicente | 40% | 38% | 16% | 6% |
| Famalicao | 30% | 20% | 36% | 14% |
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Gil Vicente and the red line for guest team, Famalicao.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Gil Vicente to score 1.1 goals and Famalicao to score 1.17 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.27 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.07 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Gil Vicente to score 0.89 goals and Famalicao to score 1.33 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.22 goals in the game and the guest team Famalicao to win by 0.44 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
| Goals | Odds | Goals | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.26 | 0-1 | 3.16 |
| 1 | 5.13 | 2-3 | 1.96 |
| 2 | 3.76 | 4+ | 5.68 |
| 3 | 4.12 | Ov 1.5 | 1.46 |
| 4 | 8.2 | Un 1.5 | 3.16 |
| 5 | 22.22 | Ov 2.5 | 2.39 |
| 6+ | 111.11 | Un 2.5 | 1.72 |
| Gg | 2.38 | Ov 3.5 | 5.68 |
| NoG | 1.72 | Un 3.5 | 1.21 |
| If game ends with | -1- | -X- | -2- |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 goals | 2.75 | 2.61 | 3.95 |
| 2-3 goals | 5.14 | 6.61 | 1.53 |
| 4+ goals | 4.89 | 2.71 | 2.35 |
| Ov 1.5 | 5.07 | 4.82 | 1.68 |
| Un 1.5 | 2.75 | 2.61 | 3.95 |
| Ov 2.5 | 4.76 | 6.45 | 1.58 |
| Un 2.5 | 3.59 | 2.94 | 2.62 |
| Ov 3.5 | 4.89 | 2.71 | 2.35 |
| Un 3.5 | 3.86 | 4.17 | 2 |
| Goal-Goal | 6.19 | 2.96 | 2 |
| No Goal | 3.19 | 4.79 | 2.09 |
| G-G+Ov 2.5 | 5.06 | 5.29 | 1.63 |
| NG+Un 2.5 | 3.12 | 4.79 | 2.27 |
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Santa Clara vs Arouca at 05 Dec 2021
In this article I will analyze the game between Santa Clara and Arouca for Primeira Liga (Portugal).| Odds | Home | Draw | Away | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | 2.09 | 3.24 | 3.52 | 2.25 | 1.65 |
| Ours | 2.4 | 3.61 | 3.26 | 2.04 | 1.96 |
| Value % | -6.18 | -3.16 | 2.27 | 4.58 | -9.59 |
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Away, Over (2.27 %, 4.58 %) so let's further analyze the game.
Basic Data and latest results
Santa Clara
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 3 |
| Last 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| At Home | 1 | 2 | 3 | 28 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Nov | Estoril | A | 2 | 2 | D | O | Gg |
| 07 Nov | Porto | H | 0 | 3 | L | O | Ng |
| 31 Oct | Belenenses | A | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 23 Oct | Famalicao | H | 0 | 2 | L | U | Ng |
| 02 Oct | Vizela | A | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 26 Sep | Sp Braga | H | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 17 Sep | Portimonense | A | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 11 Sep | Benfica | H | 0 | 5 | L | O | Ng |
Arouca
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 44 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| Last 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 78 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| At Away | 0 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Nov | Boavista | H | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 05 Nov | Gil Vicente | A | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 29 Oct | Tondela | H | 2 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 24 Oct | Pacos Ferreira | A | 0 | 0 | D | U | Ng |
| 02 Oct | Sp Lisbon | H | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 25 Sep | Moreirense | A | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 18 Sep | Guimaraes | H | 2 | 2 | D | O | Gg |
| 13 Sep | Maritimo | A | 2 | 2 | D | O | Gg |
Desicive Betting factors
| Factors | Santa Clara | Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| Form Score | -0.627 | 0.089 |
| Home/Away form | -0.602 | -0.422 |
| Off ability | 0.021 | 0.626 |
| Def ability | -1 | -0.333 |
Optimal equations estimations
The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:| Team | No-G | 1 gl | 2 gls | 3+ gls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Clara | 24% | 33% | 23% | 19% |
| Arouca | 26% | 48% | 9% | 17% |
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Santa Clara and the red line for guest team, Arouca.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Santa Clara to score 1.32 goals and Arouca to score 0.92 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.24 goals in the game and the home team Santa Clara to win by 0.4 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Santa Clara to score 1.37 goals and Arouca to score 1.17 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.2 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
| Goals | Odds | Goals | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.62 | 0-1 | 3.75 |
| 1 | 4.93 | 2-3 | 2.11 |
| 2 | 4.13 | 4+ | 3.92 |
| 3 | 4.31 | Ov 1.5 | 1.37 |
| 4 | 5.99 | Un 1.5 | 3.75 |
| 5 | 17.86 | Ov 2.5 | 2.05 |
| 6+ | 31.25 | Un 2.5 | 1.96 |
| Gg | 1.8 | Ov 3.5 | 3.92 |
| NoG | 2.27 | Un 3.5 | 1.35 |
| If game ends with | -1- | -X- | -2- |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 goals | 3.07 | 4.17 | 2.3 |
| 2-3 goals | 2.14 | 2.98 | 5.04 |
| 4+ goals | 2.38 | 4.81 | 2.68 |
| Ov 1.5 | 2.22 | 3.44 | 3.86 |
| Un 1.5 | 3.07 | 4.17 | 2.3 |
| Ov 2.5 | 1.82 | 9.19 | 2.92 |
| Un 2.5 | 3.44 | 2.28 | 3.69 |
| Ov 3.5 | 2.38 | 4.81 | 2.68 |
| Un 3.5 | 2.41 | 3.32 | 3.53 |
| Goal-Goal | 2.55 | 2.62 | 4.41 |
| No Goal | 2.23 | 6.87 | 2.46 |
| G-G+Ov 2.5 | 1.82 | 7.49 | 3.15 |
| NG+Un 2.5 | 2.36 | 6.87 | 2.54 |