La Liga
In this article we will analyse the following games:
(with blue color are the value bets as estimated by the optimal equations method).
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Over (7.14 %, 8.61 %) so let's further analyze the game.
The next graph represents the shots attempted and recieved for the Granada and Alaves within a specific timeframe of the game. The black line is the average and you can interpret it as a Heat Indicator.
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Granada and the red line for guest team, Alaves.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Granada to score 1.14 goals and Alaves to score 0.99 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.13 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.15 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Granada to score 1.44 goals and Alaves to score 1.07 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and the home team Granada to win by 0.37 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios?
The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number!
Use it and get great odds for your choices!
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Over (5.74 %, 1.17 %) so let's further analyze the game.
The next graph represents the shots attempted and recieved for the Sevilla and Villarreal within a specific timeframe of the game. The black line is the average and you can interpret it as a Heat Indicator.
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Sevilla and the red line for guest team, Villarreal.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sevilla to score 1.47 goals and Villarreal to score 0.91 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and the home team Sevilla to win by 0.56 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sevilla to score 1.57 goals and Villarreal to score 0.89 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and the home team Sevilla to win by 0.68 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios?
The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number!
Use it and get great odds for your choices!
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Draw, Away, Under (5.1 %, 15.13 %, 10.88 %) so let's further analyze the game.
The next graph represents the shots attempted and recieved for the Barcelona and Betis within a specific timeframe of the game. The black line is the average and you can interpret it as a Heat Indicator.
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Barcelona and the red line for guest team, Betis.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Barcelona to score 2.34 goals and Betis to score 0.8 goals. So, they expect a total of 3.14 goals in the game and the home team Barcelona to win by 1.54 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Barcelona to score 1.37 goals and Betis to score 1.16 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.21 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios?
The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number!
Use it and get great odds for your choices!
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Draw, Away (4.95 %, 10.97 %) so let's further analyze the game.
The next graph represents the shots attempted and recieved for the Ath Madrid and Mallorca within a specific timeframe of the game. The black line is the average and you can interpret it as a Heat Indicator.
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Ath Madrid and the red line for guest team, Mallorca.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Ath Madrid to score 2.06 goals and Mallorca to score 0.46 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and the home team Ath Madrid to win by 1.6 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Ath Madrid to score 1.58 goals and Mallorca to score 0.88 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and the home team Ath Madrid to win by 0.7 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios?
The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number!
Use it and get great odds for your choices!
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Over (10.63 %, 5.06 %) so let's further analyze the game.
The next graph represents the shots attempted and recieved for the Vallecano and Espanol within a specific timeframe of the game. The black line is the average and you can interpret it as a Heat Indicator.
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Vallecano and the red line for guest team, Espanol.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Vallecano to score 1.33 goals and Espanol to score 0.93 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.26 goals in the game and the home team Vallecano to win by 0.4 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Vallecano to score 1.6 goals and Espanol to score 0.87 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and the home team Vallecano to win by 0.73 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios?
The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number!
Use it and get great odds for your choices!
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Over (5.05 %, 5.66 %) so let's further analyze the game.
The next graph represents the shots attempted and recieved for the Levante and Osasuna within a specific timeframe of the game. The black line is the average and you can interpret it as a Heat Indicator.
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Levante and the red line for guest team, Osasuna.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Levante to score 1.22 goals and Osasuna to score 1.07 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.28 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.15 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Levante to score 1.46 goals and Osasuna to score 1.12 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.58 goals in the game and the home team Levante to win by 0.34 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios?
The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number!
Use it and get great odds for your choices!
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Away, Over (4.2 %, 10.29 %) so let's further analyze the game.
The next graph represents the shots attempted and recieved for the Elche and Cadiz within a specific timeframe of the game. The black line is the average and you can interpret it as a Heat Indicator.
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Elche and the red line for guest team, Cadiz.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Elche to score 1.24 goals and Cadiz to score 0.77 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.01 goals in the game and the home team Elche to win by 0.47 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Elche to score 1.41 goals and Cadiz to score 1.08 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and the home team Elche to win by 0.33 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios?
The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number!
Use it and get great odds for your choices!
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Away, Over (3.24 %, 2.61 %) so let's further analyze the game.
The next graph represents the shots attempted and recieved for the Celta and Valencia within a specific timeframe of the game. The black line is the average and you can interpret it as a Heat Indicator.
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Celta and the red line for guest team, Valencia.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Celta to score 1.41 goals and Valencia to score 0.96 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and the home team Celta to win by 0.45 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Celta to score 1.38 goals and Valencia to score 1.17 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.21 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios?
The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number!
Use it and get great odds for your choices!
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Over (24.22 %, 21.53 %) so let's further analyze the game.
The next graph represents the shots attempted and recieved for the Getafe and Ath Bilbao within a specific timeframe of the game. The black line is the average and you can interpret it as a Heat Indicator.
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Getafe and the red line for guest team, Ath Bilbao.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Getafe to score 0.83 goals and Ath Bilbao to score 1.08 goals. So, they expect a total of 1.91 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.25 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Getafe to score 1.64 goals and Ath Bilbao to score 1.08 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.72 goals in the game and the home team Getafe to win by 0.56 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios?
The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number!
Use it and get great odds for your choices!
| Teams | Date | Home | Draw | Away | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Granada - Alaves | 03-Dec | 2.54 | 3.08 | 3.15 | 2.46 | 1.58 |
| Sevilla - Villarreal | 04-Dec | 2.02 | 3.45 | 3.94 | 2.09 | 1.78 |
| Barcelona - Betis | 04-Dec | 1.5 | 4.79 | 6.24 | 1.5 | 2.54 |
| Ath Madrid - Mallorca | 04-Dec | 1.34 | 5.27 | 10.83 | 1.96 | 1.93 |
| Vallecano - Espanol | 05-Dec | 2.18 | 3.26 | 3.67 | 2.25 | 1.67 |
| Levante - Osasuna | 05-Dec | 2.5 | 3.25 | 3.01 | 2.23 | 1.7 |
| Elche - Cadiz | 05-Dec | 2.07 | 3.23 | 4.2 | 2.63 | 1.48 |
| Celta - Valencia | 05-Dec | 2.12 | 3.41 | 3.62 | 2.11 | 1.77 |
| Getafe - Ath Bilbao | 06-Dec | 3.52 | 3.1 | 2.38 | 2.86 | 1.42 |
Click here to view the mathematical predictions for today!
Granada vs Alaves at 03 Dec 2021
In this article I will analyze the game between Granada and Alaves for La Liga (Spain).| Odds | Home | Draw | Away | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | 2.54 | 3.08 | 3.15 | 2.46 | 1.58 |
| Ours | 2.15 | 3.83 | 3.66 | 2.03 | 1.97 |
| Value % | 7.14 | -6.36 | -4.42 | 8.61 | -12.53 |
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Over (7.14 %, 8.61 %) so let's further analyze the game.
Basic Data and latest results
Granada
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 33 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
| Last 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| At Home | 1 | 2 | 3 | 28 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Nov | Ath Bilbao | A | 2 | 2 | D | O | Gg |
| 21 Nov | Real Madrid | H | 1 | 4 | L | O | Gg |
| 06 Nov | Espanol | A | 0 | 2 | L | U | Ng |
| 01 Nov | Levante | A | 3 | 0 | W | O | Ng |
| 28 Oct | Getafe | H | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 22 Oct | Osasuna | A | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 03 Oct | Sevilla | H | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 27 Sep | Celta | A | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
Alaves
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 61 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| Last 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 44 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| At Away | 1 | 2 | 3 | 28 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 4 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Nov | Celta | H | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 20 Nov | Sevilla | A | 2 | 2 | D | O | Gg |
| 06 Nov | Levante | H | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 30 Oct | Barcelona | A | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 26 Oct | Elche | H | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 23 Oct | Cadiz | A | 2 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 18 Oct | Betis | H | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
| 01 Oct | Ath Bilbao | A | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
Playing style
| Granada | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open play | 101 | 9 | 8.3 | 159 | 16 | 16.32 |
| From corner | 18 | 4 | 1.88 | 39 | 3 | 3.73 |
| Set piece | 10 | 0 | 0.69 | 18 | 1 | 1.88 |
| Direct Freekick | 4 | 0 | 0.42 | 7 | 0 | 0.4 |
| Penalty | 2 | 1 | 1.49 | 3 | 2 | 2.23 |
| Alaves | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open play | 94 | 4 | 7.36 | 127 | 12 | 12.06 |
| From corner | 25 | 3 | 2.92 | 37 | 4 | 3.67 |
| Set piece | 14 | 0 | 1.29 | 14 | 1 | 1.8 |
| Penalty | 4 | 4 | 2.97 | 4 | 2 | 2.97 |
| Direct Freekick | 4 | 0 | 0.24 | 8 | 0 | 0.58 |
| Granada | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own goals | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Out of box | 58 | 5 | 1.82 | 83 | 1 | 2.62 |
| Penalty area | 66 | 6 | 8.02 | 130 | 16 | 16.52 |
| Six-yard box | 11 | 3 | 2.94 | 12 | 4 | 4.43 |
| Alaves | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Out of box | 39 | 0 | 1.19 | 71 | 1 | 2.08 |
| Penalty area | 95 | 7 | 10.62 | 104 | 11 | 14.03 |
| Six-yard box | 7 | 4 | 2.97 | 15 | 7 | 4.98 |
| Granada | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-15 | 17 | 4 | 1.75 | 28 | 2 | 2.74 |
| 16-30 | 17 | 2 | 0.66 | 32 | 4 | 4.58 |
| 31-45 | 14 | 3 | 1.99 | 43 | 4 | 3.68 |
| 46-60 | 28 | 0 | 2.01 | 44 | 5 | 4.11 |
| 61-75 | 22 | 3 | 2.52 | 36 | 2 | 5.38 |
| 76+ | 37 | 2 | 3.84 | 43 | 5 | 4.09 |
| Alaves | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-15 | 21 | 3 | 2.59 | 17 | 3 | 2.27 |
| 16-30 | 13 | 1 | 1.1 | 30 | 2 | 2.77 |
| 31-45 | 32 | 0 | 2.33 | 25 | 2 | 2.73 |
| 46-60 | 28 | 3 | 3.84 | 47 | 6 | 5.42 |
| 61-75 | 15 | 1 | 1.92 | 36 | 2 | 4.37 |
| 76+ | 32 | 3 | 3.01 | 35 | 4 | 3.53 |
Desicive Betting factors
| Factors | Granada | Alaves |
|---|---|---|
| Form Score | -0.286 | 0.259 |
| Home/Away form | -0.535 | -0.237 |
| Off ability | 0.505 | 1 |
| Def ability | -0.626 | -0.43 |
Optimal equations estimations
The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:| Team | No-G | 1 gl | 2 gls | 3+ gls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Granada | 22% | 33% | 24% | 21% |
| Alaves | 34% | 35% | 20% | 11% |
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Granada and the red line for guest team, Alaves.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Granada to score 1.14 goals and Alaves to score 0.99 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.13 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.15 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Granada to score 1.44 goals and Alaves to score 1.07 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and the home team Granada to win by 0.37 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
| Goals | Odds | Goals | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.16 | 0-1 | 3.76 |
| 1 | 5.26 | 2-3 | 2.05 |
| 2 | 4.13 | 4+ | 4.03 |
| 3 | 4.08 | Ov 1.5 | 1.36 |
| 4 | 6.37 | Un 1.5 | 3.76 |
| 5 | 14.71 | Ov 2.5 | 2.03 |
| 6+ | 43.48 | Un 2.5 | 1.97 |
| Gg | 1.95 | Ov 3.5 | 4.03 |
| NoG | 2.04 | Un 3.5 | 1.33 |
| If game ends with | -1- | -X- | -2- |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 goals | 2.38 | 3.5 | 3.41 |
| 2-3 goals | 2.03 | 4.23 | 3.69 |
| 4+ goals | 2.16 | 3.54 | 3.94 |
| Ov 1.5 | 2.07 | 3.97 | 3.77 |
| Un 1.5 | 2.38 | 3.5 | 3.41 |
| Ov 2.5 | 1.81 | 7.04 | 3.26 |
| Un 2.5 | 2.61 | 2.66 | 4.16 |
| Ov 3.5 | 2.16 | 3.54 | 3.94 |
| Un 3.5 | 2.14 | 3.94 | 3.59 |
| Goal-Goal | 2.56 | 2.77 | 4.03 |
| No Goal | 1.83 | 6.43 | 3.35 |
| G-G+Ov 2.5 | 1.98 | 5.67 | 3.13 |
| NG+Un 2.5 | 2.02 | 6.43 | 3.22 |
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Sevilla vs Villarreal at 04 Dec 2021
In this article I will analyze the game between Sevilla and Villarreal for La Liga (Spain).| Odds | Home | Draw | Away | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | 2.02 | 3.45 | 3.94 | 2.09 | 1.78 |
| Ours | 1.81 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 2.04 | 1.96 |
| Value % | 5.74 | -4.6 | -4.97 | 1.17 | -5.16 |
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Over (5.74 %, 1.17 %) so let's further analyze the game.
Basic Data and latest results
Sevilla
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 61 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| Last 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 44 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| At Home | 5 | 1 | 0 | 89 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Nov | Real Madrid | A | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 20 Nov | Alaves | H | 2 | 2 | D | O | Gg |
| 07 Nov | Betis | A | 2 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 30 Oct | Osasuna | H | 2 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 27 Oct | Mallorca | A | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 24 Oct | Levante | H | 5 | 3 | W | O | Gg |
| 17 Oct | Celta | A | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 03 Oct | Granada | A | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
Villarreal
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 28 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
| Last 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 44 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| At Away | 0 | 5 | 2 | 24 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Nov | Barcelona | H | 1 | 3 | L | O | Gg |
| 20 Nov | Celta | A | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 07 Nov | Getafe | H | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 30 Oct | Valencia | A | 0 | 2 | L | U | Ng |
| 26 Oct | Cadiz | H | 3 | 3 | D | O | Gg |
| 23 Oct | Ath Bilbao | A | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 17 Oct | Osasuna | H | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 03 Oct | Betis | H | 2 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
Playing style
| Sevilla | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open play | 146 | 16 | 19.5 | 93 | 8 | 7.98 |
| From corner | 26 | 4 | 2.32 | 16 | 1 | 1.16 |
| Set piece | 13 | 3 | 1.17 | 14 | 1 | 1.27 |
| Direct Freekick | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 10 | 0 | 0.51 |
| Penalty | 1 | 1 | 0.74 | 2 | 1 | 1.49 |
| Villarreal | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open play | 125 | 15 | 15.86 | 106 | 12 | 14.05 |
| From corner | 20 | 1 | 1.9 | 31 | 0 | 1.37 |
| Set piece | 11 | 0 | 2.11 | 9 | 1 | 1.07 |
| Direct Freekick | 3 | 0 | 0.15 | 5 | 0 | 0.27 |
| Penalty | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 2.97 |
| Sevilla | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own goals | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Out of box | 60 | 3 | 1.79 | 62 | 2 | 1.89 |
| Penalty area | 114 | 18 | 16.17 | 67 | 6 | 8.07 |
| Six-yard box | 11 | 1 | 3.86 | 6 | 3 | 2.44 |
| Villarreal | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own goals | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Out of box | 38 | 1 | 1.24 | 55 | 0 | 1.39 |
| Penalty area | 111 | 12 | 15.02 | 91 | 11 | 13.85 |
| Six-yard box | 10 | 3 | 3.77 | 8 | 4 | 3.49 |
| Sevilla | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-15 | 26 | 5 | 3.72 | 21 | 2 | 1.94 |
| 16-30 | 29 | 3 | 3.5 | 20 | 3 | 2.35 |
| 31-45 | 28 | 4 | 2.81 | 18 | 2 | 1.56 |
| 46-60 | 27 | 5 | 4.49 | 29 | 3 | 4.23 |
| 61-75 | 25 | 2 | 2.88 | 19 | 0 | 0.76 |
| 76+ | 52 | 5 | 6.41 | 28 | 1 | 1.55 |
| Villarreal | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-15 | 24 | 2 | 3.84 | 25 | 2 | 2.02 |
| 16-30 | 20 | 1 | 3.05 | 25 | 2 | 3.13 |
| 31-45 | 32 | 4 | 4.13 | 18 | 2 | 1.33 |
| 46-60 | 28 | 3 | 2.78 | 23 | 3 | 3.45 |
| 61-75 | 21 | 3 | 2.48 | 26 | 1 | 2.49 |
| 76+ | 34 | 3 | 3.74 | 38 | 6 | 7.31 |
Desicive Betting factors
| Factors | Sevilla | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| Form Score | 0.222 | -0.319 |
| Home/Away form | 0.734 | -0.289 |
| Off ability | 1 | 0.626 |
| Def ability | -0.217 | -0.652 |
Optimal equations estimations
The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:| Team | No-G | 1 gl | 2 gls | 3+ gls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla | 18% | 34% | 18% | 28% |
| Villarreal | 44% | 32% | 16% | 8% |
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Sevilla and the red line for guest team, Villarreal.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sevilla to score 1.47 goals and Villarreal to score 0.91 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and the home team Sevilla to win by 0.56 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sevilla to score 1.57 goals and Villarreal to score 0.89 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and the home team Sevilla to win by 0.68 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
| Goals | Odds | Goals | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.35 | 0-1 | 3.44 |
| 1 | 4.76 | 2-3 | 2.11 |
| 2 | 4.52 | 4+ | 4.27 |
| 3 | 3.94 | Ov 1.5 | 1.41 |
| 4 | 6.71 | Un 1.5 | 3.44 |
| 5 | 16.13 | Ov 2.5 | 2.05 |
| 6+ | 43.48 | Un 2.5 | 1.95 |
| Gg | 2.18 | Ov 3.5 | 4.27 |
| NoG | 1.85 | Un 3.5 | 1.31 |
| If game ends with | -1- | -X- | -2- |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 goals | 1.93 | 3.59 | 4.93 |
| 2-3 goals | 1.8 | 4.32 | 4.7 |
| 4+ goals | 1.7 | 4.42 | 5.44 |
| Ov 1.5 | 1.76 | 4.35 | 4.92 |
| Un 1.5 | 1.93 | 3.59 | 4.93 |
| Ov 2.5 | 1.52 | 9.21 | 4.28 |
| Un 2.5 | 2.21 | 2.68 | 5.75 |
| Ov 3.5 | 1.7 | 4.42 | 5.44 |
| Un 3.5 | 1.85 | 4.01 | 4.79 |
| Goal-Goal | 2.34 | 2.81 | 4.63 |
| No Goal | 1.52 | 6.69 | 5.21 |
| G-G+Ov 2.5 | 1.78 | 6.57 | 3.52 |
| NG+Un 2.5 | 1.73 | 6.69 | 4.52 |
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Barcelona vs Betis at 04 Dec 2021
In this article I will analyze the game between Barcelona and Betis for La Liga (Spain).| Odds | Home | Draw | Away | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | 1.5 | 4.79 | 6.24 | 1.5 | 2.54 |
| Ours | 2.34 | 3.85 | 3.21 | 2.01 | 1.99 |
| Value % | -23.93 | 5.1 | 15.13 | -16.92 | 10.88 |
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Draw, Away, Under (5.1 %, 15.13 %, 10.88 %) so let's further analyze the game.
Basic Data and latest results
Barcelona
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 44 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
| Last 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 78 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| At Home | 5 | 2 | 1 | 71 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 3 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Nov | Villarreal | A | 3 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 20 Nov | Espanol | H | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 06 Nov | Celta | A | 3 | 3 | D | O | Gg |
| 30 Oct | Alaves | H | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 27 Oct | Vallecano | A | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
| 24 Oct | Real Madrid | H | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 17 Oct | Valencia | H | 3 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 02 Oct | Ath Madrid | A | 0 | 2 | L | U | Ng |
Betis
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 67 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 1 |
| Last 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 67 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| At Away | 4 | 1 | 2 | 62 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Nov | Levante | H | 3 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 21 Nov | Elche | A | 3 | 0 | W | O | Ng |
| 07 Nov | Sevilla | H | 0 | 2 | L | U | Ng |
| 31 Oct | Ath Madrid | A | 0 | 3 | L | O | Ng |
| 27 Oct | Valencia | H | 4 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 24 Oct | Vallecano | H | 3 | 2 | W | O | Gg |
| 18 Oct | Alaves | A | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 03 Oct | Villarreal | A | 0 | 2 | L | U | Ng |
Playing style
| Barcelona | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open play | 141 | 18 | 19.13 | 105 | 12 | 11.39 |
| From corner | 18 | 0 | 2.41 | 17 | 3 | 1.93 |
| Direct Freekick | 7 | 0 | 0.56 | 7 | 1 | 0.48 |
| Penalty | 5 | 4 | 3.72 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Set piece | 4 | 1 | 0.41 | 15 | 0 | 1.08 |
| Betis | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open play | 171 | 17 | 16.85 | 127 | 14 | 15.95 |
| From corner | 29 | 3 | 3.52 | 28 | 3 | 3.5 |
| Set piece | 10 | 2 | 0.58 | 8 | 0 | 0.63 |
| Direct Freekick | 7 | 0 | 0.35 | 6 | 0 | 0.36 |
| Penalty | 3 | 3 | 2.23 | 1 | 1 | 0.74 |
| Barcelona | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Out of box | 58 | 4 | 2.16 | 47 | 3 | 1.68 |
| Penalty area | 98 | 14 | 16.16 | 87 | 10 | 10.07 |
| Six-yard box | 19 | 5 | 7.9 | 10 | 3 | 3.14 |
| Betis | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own goals | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Out of box | 85 | 3 | 4.06 | 58 | 2 | 2.06 |
| Penalty area | 120 | 17 | 15.37 | 101 | 13 | 14.8 |
| Six-yard box | 15 | 5 | 4.09 | 9 | 1 | 2.32 |
| Barcelona | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-15 | 25 | 5 | 2.79 | 18 | 2 | 1.46 |
| 16-30 | 28 | 3 | 3.74 | 18 | 3 | 1.71 |
| 31-45 | 21 | 2 | 3.32 | 20 | 2 | 2.49 |
| 46-60 | 40 | 5 | 6.34 | 28 | 3 | 2.18 |
| 61-75 | 25 | 1 | 2.62 | 18 | 2 | 1.67 |
| 76+ | 36 | 7 | 7.42 | 42 | 4 | 5.38 |
| Betis | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-15 | 25 | 3 | 3.12 | 22 | 3 | 2.79 |
| 16-30 | 39 | 7 | 3.86 | 20 | 2 | 2.75 |
| 31-45 | 33 | 1 | 4.06 | 33 | 4 | 4.64 |
| 46-60 | 45 | 6 | 3.77 | 35 | 2 | 3.98 |
| 61-75 | 36 | 3 | 4.02 | 21 | 4 | 3.07 |
| 76+ | 42 | 5 | 4.7 | 39 | 3 | 3.95 |
Desicive Betting factors
| Factors | Barcelona | Betis |
|---|---|---|
| Form Score | 0.032 | 0.333 |
| Home/Away form | 0.394 | 0.326 |
| Off ability | 0.579 | 0.217 |
| Def ability | -0.565 | -0.63 |
Optimal equations estimations
The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:| Team | No-G | 1 gl | 2 gls | 3+ gls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | 24% | 32% | 26% | 18% |
| Betis | 34% | 30% | 22% | 14% |
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Barcelona and the red line for guest team, Betis.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Barcelona to score 2.34 goals and Betis to score 0.8 goals. So, they expect a total of 3.14 goals in the game and the home team Barcelona to win by 1.54 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Barcelona to score 1.37 goals and Betis to score 1.16 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.21 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
| Goals | Odds | Goals | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 0-1 | 3.76 |
| 1 | 5.49 | 2-3 | 2.1 |
| 2 | 4.26 | 4+ | 3.92 |
| 3 | 4.13 | Ov 1.5 | 1.37 |
| 4 | 6.49 | Un 1.5 | 3.76 |
| 5 | 13.33 | Ov 2.5 | 2.01 |
| 6+ | 38.46 | Un 2.5 | 2 |
| Gg | 2.02 | Ov 3.5 | 3.92 |
| NoG | 1.99 | Un 3.5 | 1.35 |
| If game ends with | -1- | -X- | -2- |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 goals | 2.44 | 3.17 | 3.64 |
| 2-3 goals | 2.12 | 5.02 | 3.04 |
| 4+ goals | 2.74 | 3.15 | 3.15 |
| Ov 1.5 | 2.3 | 4.16 | 3.08 |
| Un 1.5 | 2.44 | 3.17 | 3.64 |
| Ov 2.5 | 2.15 | 6.14 | 2.69 |
| Un 2.5 | 2.56 | 2.8 | 3.98 |
| Ov 3.5 | 2.74 | 3.15 | 3.15 |
| Un 3.5 | 2.22 | 4.15 | 3.23 |
| Goal-Goal | 2.93 | 2.81 | 3.3 |
| No Goal | 1.95 | 5.99 | 3.12 |
| G-G+Ov 2.5 | 2.37 | 4.94 | 2.67 |
| NG+Un 2.5 | 2.07 | 5.99 | 3.22 |
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Ath Madrid vs Mallorca at 04 Dec 2021
In this article I will analyze the game between Ath Madrid and Mallorca for La Liga (Spain).| Odds | Home | Draw | Away | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | 1.34 | 5.27 | 10.83 | 1.96 | 1.93 |
| Ours | 1.79 | 4.18 | 4.95 | 2.04 | 1.96 |
| Value % | -18.76 | 4.95 | 10.97 | -2 | -0.79 |
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Draw, Away (4.95 %, 10.97 %) so let's further analyze the game.
Basic Data and latest results
Ath Madrid
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 67 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 1 |
| Last 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 78 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| At Home | 4 | 3 | 0 | 71 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Nov | Cadiz | A | 4 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 20 Nov | Osasuna | H | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 07 Nov | Valencia | A | 3 | 3 | D | O | Gg |
| 31 Oct | Betis | H | 3 | 0 | W | O | Ng |
| 28 Oct | Levante | A | 2 | 2 | D | O | Gg |
| 24 Oct | Sociedad | H | 2 | 2 | D | O | Gg |
| 02 Oct | Barcelona | H | 2 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 25 Sep | Alaves | A | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
Mallorca
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 28 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
| Last 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| At Away | 1 | 2 | 4 | 24 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 4 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Nov | Getafe | H | 0 | 0 | D | U | Ng |
| 22 Nov | Vallecano | A | 1 | 3 | L | O | Gg |
| 07 Nov | Elche | H | 2 | 2 | D | O | Gg |
| 31 Oct | Cadiz | A | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 27 Oct | Sevilla | H | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 23 Oct | Valencia | A | 2 | 2 | D | O | Gg |
| 16 Oct | Sociedad | A | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
| 02 Oct | Levante | H | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
Playing style
| Ath Madrid | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open play | 138 | 21 | 17.74 | 70 | 6 | 8.24 |
| From corner | 40 | 3 | 4.71 | 12 | 2 | 1.45 |
| Set piece | 10 | 1 | 2.08 | 19 | 2 | 1.9 |
| Direct Freekick | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 6 | 1 | 0.37 |
| Penalty | 1 | 1 | 0.74 | 3 | 3 | 2.23 |
| Mallorca | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open play | 118 | 8 | 10.55 | 141 | 17 | 13.76 |
| From corner | 24 | 5 | 3.19 | 18 | 0 | 1.55 |
| Set piece | 15 | 0 | 1.57 | 11 | 2 | 1.95 |
| Direct Freekick | 12 | 0 | 0.73 | 6 | 1 | 0.23 |
| Penalty | 1 | 1 | 0.74 | 3 | 2 | 2.23 |
| Ath Madrid | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own goals | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Out of box | 60 | 2 | 1.71 | 43 | 1 | 1.26 |
| Penalty area | 112 | 17 | 15.69 | 59 | 9 | 8.95 |
| Six-yard box | 17 | 5 | 5.96 | 6 | 2 | 1.97 |
| Mallorca | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own goals | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Out of box | 82 | 0 | 2.44 | 59 | 5 | 1.69 |
| Penalty area | 78 | 8 | 9.92 | 104 | 13 | 12.85 |
| Six-yard box | 9 | 5 | 3.42 | 16 | 4 | 5.18 |
| Ath Madrid | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-15 | 33 | 1 | 2.58 | 12 | 2 | 1.18 |
| 16-30 | 26 | 3 | 2.99 | 21 | 0 | 1 |
| 31-45 | 26 | 3 | 4.19 | 9 | 3 | 1.16 |
| 46-60 | 41 | 5 | 5.7 | 25 | 4 | 4.14 |
| 61-75 | 33 | 5 | 4.71 | 14 | 1 | 1.45 |
| 76+ | 32 | 9 | 5.19 | 29 | 4 | 5.26 |
| Mallorca | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-15 | 29 | 1 | 2.37 | 24 | 3 | 2.65 |
| 16-30 | 26 | 5 | 3.46 | 24 | 3 | 2.75 |
| 31-45 | 16 | 2 | 2.7 | 35 | 0 | 3.47 |
| 46-60 | 42 | 1 | 3.79 | 34 | 3 | 2.2 |
| 61-75 | 26 | 2 | 2.38 | 22 | 6 | 3.83 |
| 76+ | 31 | 3 | 2.07 | 40 | 7 | 4.83 |
Desicive Betting factors
| Factors | Ath Madrid | Mallorca |
|---|---|---|
| Form Score | 0.508 | -0.185 |
| Home/Away form | 0.527 | -0.437 |
| Off ability | 1 | 0.539 |
| Def ability | -0.191 | -0.607 |
Optimal equations estimations
The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:| Team | No-G | 1 gl | 2 gls | 3+ gls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ath Madrid | 19% | 32% | 23% | 27% |
| Mallorca | 46% | 29% | 17% | 9% |
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Ath Madrid and the red line for guest team, Mallorca.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Ath Madrid to score 2.06 goals and Mallorca to score 0.46 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and the home team Ath Madrid to win by 1.6 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Ath Madrid to score 1.58 goals and Mallorca to score 0.88 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and the home team Ath Madrid to win by 0.7 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
| Goals | Odds | Goals | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.63 | 0-1 | 3.52 |
| 1 | 5.05 | 2-3 | 2.07 |
| 2 | 4.42 | 4+ | 4.29 |
| 3 | 3.89 | Ov 1.5 | 1.4 |
| 4 | 6.94 | Un 1.5 | 3.52 |
| 5 | 15.38 | Ov 2.5 | 2.04 |
| 6+ | 41.67 | Un 2.5 | 1.96 |
| Gg | 2.26 | Ov 3.5 | 4.29 |
| NoG | 1.79 | Un 3.5 | 1.3 |
| If game ends with | -1- | -X- | -2- |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 goals | 1.97 | 3.3 | 5.26 |
| 2-3 goals | 1.66 | 5.31 | 4.78 |
| 4+ goals | 1.89 | 3.76 | 4.85 |
| Ov 1.5 | 1.73 | 4.68 | 4.81 |
| Un 1.5 | 1.97 | 3.3 | 5.26 |
| Ov 2.5 | 1.58 | 7.9 | 4.19 |
| Un 2.5 | 2.06 | 2.88 | 5.93 |
| Ov 3.5 | 1.89 | 3.76 | 4.85 |
| Un 3.5 | 1.76 | 4.33 | 4.95 |
| Goal-Goal | 2.35 | 2.89 | 4.38 |
| No Goal | 1.51 | 6.49 | 5.47 |
| G-G+Ov 2.5 | 1.87 | 5.66 | 3.48 |
| NG+Un 2.5 | 1.7 | 6.49 | 4.87 |
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Vallecano vs Espanol at 05 Dec 2021
In this article I will analyze the game between Vallecano and Espanol for La Liga (Spain).| Odds | Home | Draw | Away | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | 2.18 | 3.26 | 3.67 | 2.25 | 1.67 |
| Ours | 1.77 | 4.15 | 5.13 | 2.02 | 1.98 |
| Value % | 10.63 | -6.58 | -7.75 | 5.06 | -9.38 |
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Over (10.63 %, 5.06 %) so let's further analyze the game.
Basic Data and latest results
Vallecano
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 44 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| Last 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 44 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| At Home | 6 | 1 | 0 | 90 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 2 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Nov | Valencia | A | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 22 Nov | Mallorca | H | 3 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 06 Nov | Real Madrid | A | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 01 Nov | Celta | H | 0 | 0 | D | U | Ng |
| 27 Oct | Barcelona | H | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 24 Oct | Betis | A | 2 | 3 | L | O | Gg |
| 17 Oct | Elche | H | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 02 Oct | Osasuna | A | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
Espanol
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 44 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
| Last 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 67 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| At Away | 0 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 4 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Nov | Sociedad | H | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 20 Nov | Barcelona | A | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
| 06 Nov | Granada | H | 2 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 31 Oct | Getafe | A | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 26 Oct | Ath Bilbao | H | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 23 Oct | Elche | A | 2 | 2 | D | O | Gg |
| 18 Oct | Cadiz | H | 2 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 03 Oct | Real Madrid | H | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
Playing style
| Vallecano | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open play | 129 | 17 | 12.24 | 116 | 9 | 13.55 |
| From corner | 35 | 2 | 4.65 | 19 | 0 | 1.05 |
| Direct Freekick | 11 | 0 | 0.58 | 9 | 0 | 0.56 |
| Set piece | 9 | 1 | 1.06 | 12 | 2 | 2.38 |
| Penalty | 3 | 3 | 2.23 | 7 | 5 | 5.2 |
| Espanol | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open play | 115 | 9 | 9.51 | 167 | 12 | 16.71 |
| From corner | 34 | 4 | 3.18 | 34 | 0 | 1.79 |
| Direct Freekick | 14 | 0 | 0.66 | 5 | 0 | 0.32 |
| Set piece | 13 | 0 | 1.35 | 8 | 1 | 1 |
| Penalty | 2 | 2 | 1.49 | 1 | 1 | 0.74 |
| Vallecano | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own goals | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Out of box | 76 | 2 | 2.11 | 58 | 2 | 1.94 |
| Penalty area | 89 | 13 | 11.41 | 93 | 11 | 15.74 |
| Six-yard box | 22 | 8 | 7.24 | 11 | 2 | 4.07 |
| Espanol | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Out of box | 75 | 2 | 2.38 | 73 | 1 | 2.08 |
| Penalty area | 96 | 11 | 10.77 | 126 | 11 | 13.46 |
| Six-yard box | 7 | 2 | 3.04 | 16 | 2 | 5.03 |
| Vallecano | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-15 | 30 | 5 | 3.77 | 16 | 2 | 0.74 |
| 16-30 | 17 | 4 | 1.84 | 27 | 5 | 3.54 |
| 31-45 | 29 | 3 | 2.69 | 26 | 3 | 5.17 |
| 46-60 | 34 | 1 | 3.76 | 26 | 1 | 2.83 |
| 61-75 | 30 | 4 | 3.34 | 31 | 2 | 4.37 |
| 76+ | 47 | 6 | 5.35 | 37 | 3 | 6.11 |
| Espanol | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-15 | 24 | 1 | 1.55 | 41 | 1 | 3.33 |
| 16-30 | 20 | 2 | 2.26 | 29 | 3 | 2.24 |
| 31-45 | 34 | 5 | 3.99 | 34 | 1 | 2.74 |
| 46-60 | 23 | 4 | 2.32 | 34 | 4 | 4.37 |
| 61-75 | 31 | 1 | 1.59 | 35 | 1 | 3.8 |
| 76+ | 46 | 2 | 4.49 | 42 | 4 | 4.08 |
Desicive Betting factors
| Factors | Vallecano | Espanol |
|---|---|---|
| Form Score | -0.048 | 0.022 |
| Home/Away form | 0.809 | -0.585 |
| Off ability | 0.547 | 0.565 |
| Def ability | -0.278 | -0.259 |
Optimal equations estimations
The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:| Team | No-G | 1 gl | 2 gls | 3+ gls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vallecano | 18% | 33% | 19% | 30% |
| Espanol | 44% | 33% | 16% | 7% |
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Vallecano and the red line for guest team, Espanol.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Vallecano to score 1.33 goals and Espanol to score 0.93 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.26 goals in the game and the home team Vallecano to win by 0.4 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Vallecano to score 1.6 goals and Espanol to score 0.87 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and the home team Vallecano to win by 0.73 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
| Goals | Odds | Goals | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.35 | 0-1 | 3.51 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 2-3 | 2.09 |
| 2 | 4.57 | 4+ | 4.24 |
| 3 | 3.85 | Ov 1.5 | 1.4 |
| 4 | 6.58 | Un 1.5 | 3.51 |
| 5 | 16.13 | Ov 2.5 | 2.02 |
| 6+ | 45.45 | Un 2.5 | 1.98 |
| Gg | 2.18 | Ov 3.5 | 4.24 |
| NoG | 1.85 | Un 3.5 | 1.31 |
| If game ends with | -1- | -X- | -2- |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 goals | 1.98 | 3.52 | 4.75 |
| 2-3 goals | 1.74 | 4.48 | 4.94 |
| 4+ goals | 1.62 | 4.54 | 6.21 |
| Ov 1.5 | 1.7 | 4.5 | 5.3 |
| Un 1.5 | 1.98 | 3.52 | 4.75 |
| Ov 2.5 | 1.46 | 9.54 | 4.72 |
| Un 2.5 | 2.23 | 2.68 | 5.6 |
| Ov 3.5 | 1.62 | 4.54 | 6.21 |
| Un 3.5 | 1.82 | 4.06 | 4.87 |
| Goal-Goal | 2.2 | 2.88 | 5.03 |
| No Goal | 1.52 | 6.69 | 5.21 |
| G-G+Ov 2.5 | 1.69 | 6.75 | 3.86 |
| NG+Un 2.5 | 1.76 | 6.69 | 4.41 |
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Levante vs Osasuna at 05 Dec 2021
In this article I will analyze the game between Levante and Osasuna for La Liga (Spain).| Odds | Home | Draw | Away | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | 2.5 | 3.25 | 3.01 | 2.23 | 1.7 |
| Ours | 2.22 | 3.68 | 3.61 | 1.98 | 2.02 |
| Value % | 5.05 | -3.6 | -5.52 | 5.66 | -9.32 |
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Over (5.05 %, 5.66 %) so let's further analyze the game.
Basic Data and latest results
Levante
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 1 |
| Last 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| At Home | 0 | 5 | 2 | 24 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 4 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Nov | Betis | A | 1 | 3 | L | O | Gg |
| 19 Nov | Ath Bilbao | H | 0 | 0 | D | U | Ng |
| 06 Nov | Alaves | A | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 01 Nov | Granada | H | 0 | 3 | L | O | Ng |
| 28 Oct | Ath Madrid | H | 2 | 2 | D | O | Gg |
| 24 Oct | Sevilla | A | 3 | 5 | L | O | Gg |
| 16 Oct | Getafe | H | 0 | 0 | D | U | Ng |
| 02 Oct | Mallorca | A | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
Osasuna
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 6 |
| Last 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| At Away | 4 | 1 | 2 | 62 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 4 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Nov | Elche | H | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 20 Nov | Ath Madrid | A | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
| 07 Nov | Sociedad | H | 0 | 2 | L | U | Ng |
| 30 Oct | Sevilla | A | 0 | 2 | L | U | Ng |
| 27 Oct | Real Madrid | A | 0 | 0 | D | U | Ng |
| 22 Oct | Granada | H | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 17 Oct | Villarreal | A | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 02 Oct | Vallecano | H | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
Playing style
| Levante | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open play | 97 | 8 | 10.12 | 141 | 19 | 14.15 |
| From corner | 18 | 1 | 0.6 | 35 | 7 | 4.48 |
| Set piece | 11 | 1 | 1.71 | 10 | 0 | 0.88 |
| Direct Freekick | 6 | 0 | 0.4 | 4 | 0 | 0.26 |
| Penalty | 5 | 3 | 3.72 | 2 | 2 | 1.49 |
| Osasuna | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open play | 124 | 8 | 11.23 | 126 | 10 | 11.75 |
| From corner | 25 | 2 | 1.72 | 26 | 6 | 3.76 |
| Set piece | 12 | 0 | 0.34 | 7 | 1 | 0.21 |
| Penalty | 5 | 4 | 3.72 | 2 | 2 | 1.49 |
| Direct Freekick | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 6 | 0 | 0.46 |
| Levante | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Out of box | 56 | 0 | 1.82 | 73 | 2 | 2.05 |
| Penalty area | 74 | 11 | 11.45 | 102 | 20 | 14.02 |
| Six-yard box | 7 | 2 | 3.28 | 17 | 6 | 5.2 |
| Osasuna | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own goals | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Out of box | 70 | 3 | 1.69 | 75 | 2 | 3.21 |
| Penalty area | 90 | 11 | 13.12 | 77 | 11 | 9.53 |
| Six-yard box | 8 | 1 | 2.29 | 14 | 5 | 3.94 |
| Levante | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-15 | 24 | 2 | 1.75 | 20 | 6 | 3.39 |
| 16-30 | 23 | 0 | 1.62 | 30 | 1 | 2.88 |
| 31-45 | 27 | 5 | 3.26 | 32 | 4 | 2.83 |
| 46-60 | 20 | 4 | 2.84 | 35 | 2 | 2.12 |
| 61-75 | 12 | 0 | 2.25 | 35 | 7 | 4.68 |
| 76+ | 31 | 2 | 4.82 | 40 | 8 | 5.35 |
| Osasuna | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-15 | 24 | 3 | 3.55 | 26 | 2 | 2.59 |
| 16-30 | 27 | 3 | 2.29 | 23 | 3 | 2.58 |
| 31-45 | 31 | 2 | 2.55 | 28 | 1 | 2.09 |
| 46-60 | 30 | 2 | 3.21 | 29 | 5 | 3.74 |
| 61-75 | 21 | 0 | 1.48 | 25 | 3 | 2.5 |
| 76+ | 35 | 5 | 4.01 | 36 | 5 | 4.17 |
Desicive Betting factors
| Factors | Levante | Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| Form Score | -0.786 | -0.519 |
| Home/Away form | -0.502 | 0.215 |
| Off ability | 0.021 | -0.565 |
| Def ability | -0.565 | -0.704 |
Optimal equations estimations
The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:| Team | No-G | 1 gl | 2 gls | 3+ gls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Levante | 21% | 34% | 22% | 22% |
| Osasuna | 27% | 44% | 19% | 10% |
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Levante and the red line for guest team, Osasuna.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Levante to score 1.22 goals and Osasuna to score 1.07 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.28 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.15 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Levante to score 1.46 goals and Osasuna to score 1.12 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.58 goals in the game and the home team Levante to win by 0.34 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
| Goals | Odds | Goals | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.24 | 0-1 | 4.1 |
| 1 | 5.38 | 2-3 | 2.02 |
| 2 | 4 | 4+ | 3.8 |
| 3 | 4.1 | Ov 1.5 | 1.32 |
| 4 | 5.71 | Un 1.5 | 4.1 |
| 5 | 15.38 | Ov 2.5 | 1.97 |
| 6+ | 43.48 | Un 2.5 | 2.02 |
| Gg | 1.74 | Ov 3.5 | 3.8 |
| NoG | 2.35 | Un 3.5 | 1.36 |
| If game ends with | -1- | -X- | -2- |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 goals | 2.65 | 4.21 | 2.6 |
| 2-3 goals | 2.27 | 3.29 | 3.92 |
| 4+ goals | 1.88 | 4.05 | 4.53 |
| Ov 1.5 | 2.11 | 3.52 | 4.11 |
| Un 1.5 | 2.65 | 4.21 | 2.6 |
| Ov 2.5 | 1.7 | 7.8 | 3.52 |
| Un 2.5 | 3.25 | 2.38 | 3.69 |
| Ov 3.5 | 1.88 | 4.05 | 4.53 |
| Un 3.5 | 2.38 | 3.55 | 3.35 |
| Goal-Goal | 2.42 | 2.67 | 4.71 |
| No Goal | 2.01 | 7.34 | 2.73 |
| G-G+Ov 2.5 | 1.79 | 6.54 | 3.48 |
| NG+Un 2.5 | 2.26 | 7.34 | 2.57 |
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Elche vs Cadiz at 05 Dec 2021
In this article I will analyze the game between Elche and Cadiz for La Liga (Spain).| Odds | Home | Draw | Away | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | 2.07 | 3.23 | 4.2 | 2.63 | 1.48 |
| Ours | 2.21 | 3.73 | 3.57 | 2.07 | 1.93 |
| Value % | -3.06 | -4.15 | 4.2 | 10.29 | -15.75 |
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Away, Over (4.2 %, 10.29 %) so let's further analyze the game.
Basic Data and latest results
Elche
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 |
| Last 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| At Home | 1 | 4 | 2 | 33 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 4 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Nov | Osasuna | A | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 21 Nov | Betis | H | 0 | 3 | L | O | Ng |
| 07 Nov | Mallorca | A | 2 | 2 | D | O | Gg |
| 30 Oct | Real Madrid | H | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 26 Oct | Alaves | A | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
| 23 Oct | Espanol | H | 2 | 2 | D | O | Gg |
| 17 Oct | Vallecano | A | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 03 Oct | Celta | H | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
Cadiz
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 28 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
| Last 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 33 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| At Away | 2 | 2 | 3 | 38 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 3 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Nov | Ath Madrid | H | 1 | 4 | L | O | Gg |
| 21 Nov | Getafe | A | 0 | 4 | L | O | Ng |
| 05 Nov | Ath Bilbao | A | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 31 Oct | Mallorca | H | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 26 Oct | Villarreal | A | 3 | 3 | D | O | Gg |
| 23 Oct | Alaves | H | 0 | 2 | L | U | Ng |
| 18 Oct | Espanol | A | 0 | 2 | L | U | Ng |
| 02 Oct | Valencia | H | 0 | 0 | D | U | Ng |
Playing style
| Elche | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open play | 99 | 11 | 10.23 | 154 | 15 | 16.09 |
| From corner | 19 | 1 | 1.12 | 29 | 2 | 2.88 |
| Set piece | 8 | 0 | 0.38 | 10 | 1 | 0.59 |
| Direct Freekick | 3 | 0 | 0.22 | 8 | 0 | 0.43 |
| Penalty | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2.23 |
| Cadiz | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open play | 87 | 6 | 8.71 | 145 | 16 | 15.59 |
| From corner | 26 | 0 | 2.46 | 31 | 6 | 4.47 |
| Set piece | 20 | 4 | 2.71 | 15 | 1 | 1.2 |
| Penalty | 4 | 3 | 2.97 | 4 | 4 | 2.97 |
| Direct Freekick | 4 | 0 | 0.25 | 7 | 0 | 0.43 |
| Elche | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Out of box | 53 | 2 | 1.71 | 84 | 3 | 2.25 |
| Penalty area | 67 | 9 | 8.06 | 107 | 13 | 15.15 |
| Six-yard box | 9 | 1 | 2.2 | 13 | 5 | 4.83 |
| Cadiz | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own goals | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Out of box | 46 | 0 | 1.16 | 65 | 2 | 2.17 |
| Penalty area | 84 | 9 | 12.16 | 122 | 18 | 16.47 |
| Six-yard box | 10 | 3 | 2.78 | 15 | 7 | 6.04 |
| Elche | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-15 | 15 | 2 | 1.49 | 32 | 3 | 4.97 |
| 16-30 | 22 | 3 | 2.35 | 29 | 4 | 2.57 |
| 31-45 | 17 | 1 | 1.76 | 31 | 3 | 3.07 |
| 46-60 | 19 | 1 | 1.56 | 42 | 5 | 5.1 |
| 61-75 | 25 | 3 | 2.3 | 24 | 3 | 2.84 |
| 76+ | 31 | 2 | 2.49 | 46 | 3 | 3.68 |
| Cadiz | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-15 | 21 | 4 | 1.87 | 30 | 3 | 3.39 |
| 16-30 | 20 | 1 | 2.09 | 21 | 2 | 2.29 |
| 31-45 | 26 | 3 | 3.87 | 42 | 4 | 5.28 |
| 46-60 | 19 | 1 | 1.58 | 37 | 3 | 3.66 |
| 61-75 | 20 | 1 | 3.04 | 27 | 5 | 3.65 |
| 76+ | 35 | 3 | 4.64 | 45 | 10 | 6.41 |
Desicive Betting factors
| Factors | Elche | Cadiz |
|---|---|---|
| Form Score | -0.603 | -0.348 |
| Home/Away form | -0.386 | -0.133 |
| Off ability | 0.053 | 0.243 |
| Def ability | -1 | -0.652 |
Optimal equations estimations
The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:| Team | No-G | 1 gl | 2 gls | 3+ gls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elche | 22% | 36% | 20% | 21% |
| Cadiz | 34% | 36% | 20% | 11% |
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Elche and the red line for guest team, Cadiz.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Elche to score 1.24 goals and Cadiz to score 0.77 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.01 goals in the game and the home team Elche to win by 0.47 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Elche to score 1.41 goals and Cadiz to score 1.08 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and the home team Elche to win by 0.33 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
| Goals | Odds | Goals | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.33 | 0-1 | 3.62 |
| 1 | 4.98 | 2-3 | 2.08 |
| 2 | 4.13 | 4+ | 4.13 |
| 3 | 4.18 | Ov 1.5 | 1.38 |
| 4 | 6.41 | Un 1.5 | 3.62 |
| 5 | 15.87 | Ov 2.5 | 2.08 |
| 6+ | 43.48 | Un 2.5 | 1.93 |
| Gg | 1.94 | Ov 3.5 | 4.13 |
| NoG | 2.07 | Un 3.5 | 1.32 |
| If game ends with | -1- | -X- | -2- |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 goals | 2.26 | 3.68 | 3.49 |
| 2-3 goals | 2.26 | 3.7 | 3.49 |
| 4+ goals | 2.07 | 3.84 | 3.9 |
| Ov 1.5 | 2.19 | 3.75 | 3.62 |
| Un 1.5 | 2.26 | 3.68 | 3.49 |
| Ov 2.5 | 1.84 | 7.63 | 3.06 |
| Un 2.5 | 2.71 | 2.53 | 4.25 |
| Ov 3.5 | 2.07 | 3.84 | 3.9 |
| Un 3.5 | 2.26 | 3.69 | 3.49 |
| Goal-Goal | 2.72 | 2.67 | 3.88 |
| No Goal | 1.84 | 6.44 | 3.31 |
| G-G+Ov 2.5 | 2.03 | 6.13 | 2.9 |
| NG+Un 2.5 | 2.03 | 6.44 | 3.18 |
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Celta vs Valencia at 05 Dec 2021
In this article I will analyze the game between Celta and Valencia for La Liga (Spain).| Odds | Home | Draw | Away | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | 2.12 | 3.41 | 3.62 | 2.11 | 1.77 |
| Ours | 2.38 | 3.69 | 3.24 | 2 | 2 |
| Value % | -5.15 | -2.23 | 3.24 | 2.61 | -6.5 |
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Away, Over (3.24 %, 2.61 %) so let's further analyze the game.
Basic Data and latest results
Celta
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 50 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| Last 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 56 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| At Home | 1 | 2 | 5 | 21 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 5 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Nov | Alaves | A | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 20 Nov | Villarreal | H | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 06 Nov | Barcelona | H | 3 | 3 | D | O | Gg |
| 01 Nov | Vallecano | A | 0 | 0 | D | U | Ng |
| 28 Oct | Sociedad | H | 0 | 2 | L | U | Ng |
| 25 Oct | Getafe | A | 3 | 0 | W | O | Ng |
| 17 Oct | Sevilla | H | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
| 03 Oct | Elche | A | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
Valencia
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 39 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| Last 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 33 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| At Away | 1 | 3 | 3 | 29 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Nov | Vallecano | H | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 21 Nov | Sociedad | A | 0 | 0 | D | U | Ng |
| 07 Nov | Ath Madrid | H | 3 | 3 | D | O | Gg |
| 30 Oct | Villarreal | H | 2 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 27 Oct | Betis | A | 1 | 4 | L | O | Gg |
| 23 Oct | Mallorca | H | 2 | 2 | D | O | Gg |
| 17 Oct | Barcelona | A | 1 | 3 | L | O | Gg |
| 02 Oct | Cadiz | A | 0 | 0 | D | U | Ng |
Playing style
| Celta | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open play | 131 | 13 | 13.01 | 125 | 15 | 14.91 |
| From corner | 21 | 1 | 1.71 | 19 | 1 | 2.06 |
| Set piece | 9 | 1 | 1.22 | 10 | 2 | 1.4 |
| Direct Freekick | 7 | 0 | 0.39 | 5 | 0 | 0.23 |
| Penalty | 3 | 1 | 2.23 | 4 | 1 | 2.97 |
| Valencia | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open play | 116 | 13 | 14.28 | 129 | 14 | 13.72 |
| From corner | 20 | 3 | 2.21 | 23 | 3 | 2.17 |
| Set piece | 20 | 2 | 1.54 | 12 | 2 | 2.3 |
| Direct Freekick | 7 | 0 | 0.42 | 8 | 0 | 0.46 |
| Penalty | 4 | 4 | 2.97 | 2 | 2 | 1.49 |
| Celta | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Out of box | 64 | 2 | 2.05 | 49 | 2 | 1.53 |
| Penalty area | 99 | 11 | 13.31 | 103 | 13 | 14.93 |
| Six-yard box | 8 | 3 | 3.2 | 11 | 4 | 5.11 |
| Valencia | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own goals | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Out of box | 62 | 2 | 1.66 | 69 | 5 | 2.2 |
| Penalty area | 90 | 12 | 12.27 | 93 | 12 | 12.19 |
| Six-yard box | 13 | 6 | 5.49 | 10 | 2 | 3.75 |
| Celta | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-15 | 18 | 2 | 1.35 | 24 | 1 | 1.85 |
| 16-30 | 21 | 1 | 2.22 | 22 | 5 | 2.3 |
| 31-45 | 21 | 0 | 2.36 | 34 | 5 | 5.75 |
| 46-60 | 35 | 4 | 3.92 | 24 | 4 | 4.28 |
| 61-75 | 33 | 6 | 5.24 | 20 | 2 | 2.64 |
| 76+ | 43 | 3 | 3.48 | 39 | 2 | 4.76 |
| Valencia | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-15 | 19 | 3 | 2.08 | 27 | 6 | 3.26 |
| 16-30 | 28 | 3 | 3.08 | 25 | 2 | 1.7 |
| 31-45 | 22 | 2 | 2.92 | 28 | 4 | 3.75 |
| 46-60 | 38 | 5 | 5.4 | 31 | 3 | 4.73 |
| 61-75 | 26 | 2 | 2.84 | 30 | 3 | 3.35 |
| 76+ | 34 | 7 | 5.1 | 33 | 3 | 3.35 |
Desicive Betting factors
| Factors | Celta | Valencia |
|---|---|---|
| Form Score | 0.127 | 0.015 |
| Home/Away form | -0.71 | -0.304 |
| Off ability | 0.126 | 0.565 |
| Def ability | -0.304 | -0.311 |
Optimal equations estimations
The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:| Team | No-G | 1 gl | 2 gls | 3+ gls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celta | 23% | 35% | 22% | 20% |
| Valencia | 28% | 39% | 21% | 12% |
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Celta and the red line for guest team, Valencia.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Celta to score 1.41 goals and Valencia to score 0.96 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and the home team Celta to win by 0.45 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Celta to score 1.38 goals and Valencia to score 1.17 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.21 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
| Goals | Odds | Goals | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.15 | 0-1 | 3.92 |
| 1 | 5.29 | 2-3 | 2.05 |
| 2 | 4.07 | 4+ | 3.89 |
| 3 | 4.13 | Ov 1.5 | 1.34 |
| 4 | 6.06 | Un 1.5 | 3.92 |
| 5 | 14.71 | Ov 2.5 | 2 |
| 6+ | 41.67 | Un 2.5 | 2 |
| Gg | 1.82 | Ov 3.5 | 3.89 |
| NoG | 2.22 | Un 3.5 | 1.35 |
| If game ends with | -1- | -X- | -2- |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 goals | 2.6 | 3.86 | 2.8 |
| 2-3 goals | 2.38 | 3.61 | 3.3 |
| 4+ goals | 2.22 | 3.67 | 3.62 |
| Ov 1.5 | 2.32 | 3.63 | 3.4 |
| Un 1.5 | 2.6 | 3.86 | 2.8 |
| Ov 2.5 | 1.93 | 7.13 | 2.92 |
| Un 2.5 | 3.11 | 2.49 | 3.6 |
| Ov 3.5 | 2.22 | 3.67 | 3.62 |
| Un 3.5 | 2.45 | 3.7 | 3.11 |
| Goal-Goal | 2.71 | 2.68 | 3.87 |
| No Goal | 2.08 | 6.82 | 2.68 |
| G-G+Ov 2.5 | 2.04 | 5.93 | 2.92 |
| NG+Un 2.5 | 2.27 | 6.82 | 2.63 |
Go to Top
Getafe vs Ath Bilbao at 06 Dec 2021
In this article I will analyze the game between Getafe and Ath Bilbao for La Liga (Spain).| Odds | Home | Draw | Away | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | 3.52 | 3.1 | 2.38 | 2.86 | 1.42 |
| Ours | 1.9 | 4.1 | 4.37 | 1.77 | 2.3 |
| Value % | 24.22 | -7.87 | -19.13 | 21.53 | -26.94 |
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Over (24.22 %, 21.53 %) so let's further analyze the game.
Basic Data and latest results
Getafe
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 44 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| Last 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 44 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| At Home | 2 | 1 | 4 | 33 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 3 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Nov | Mallorca | A | 0 | 0 | D | U | Ng |
| 21 Nov | Cadiz | H | 4 | 0 | W | O | Ng |
| 07 Nov | Villarreal | A | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
| 31 Oct | Espanol | H | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 28 Oct | Granada | A | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 25 Oct | Celta | H | 0 | 3 | L | O | Ng |
| 16 Oct | Levante | A | 0 | 0 | D | U | Ng |
| 03 Oct | Sociedad | H | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
Ath Bilbao
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 22 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 |
| Last 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| At Away | 1 | 6 | 1 | 38 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Dec | Real Madrid | A | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
| 26 Nov | Granada | H | 2 | 2 | D | O | Gg |
| 19 Nov | Levante | A | 0 | 0 | D | U | Ng |
| 05 Nov | Cadiz | H | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
| 31 Oct | Sociedad | A | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 26 Oct | Espanol | A | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 23 Oct | Villarreal | H | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 01 Oct | Alaves | H | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
Playing style
| Getafe | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open play | 114 | 6 | 6.11 | 115 | 13 | 14.46 |
| From corner | 25 | 1 | 1.26 | 28 | 4 | 2.58 |
| Direct Freekick | 13 | 0 | 0.68 | 9 | 0 | 0.42 |
| Set piece | 12 | 3 | 1.06 | 8 | 0 | 0.27 |
| Penalty | 1 | 0 | 0.74 | 3 | 2 | 2.23 |
| Ath Bilbao | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open play | 128 | 6 | 17.07 | 126 | 8 | 9.65 |
| From corner | 46 | 3 | 2.76 | 22 | 0 | 1.14 |
| Set piece | 16 | 2 | 2.88 | 14 | 1 | 1.27 |
| Direct Freekick | 6 | 1 | 0.37 | 6 | 0 | 0.46 |
| Penalty | 3 | 1 | 2.23 | 2 | 2 | 1.49 |
| Getafe | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Out of box | 84 | 0 | 2.2 | 56 | 0 | 2.05 |
| Penalty area | 77 | 10 | 7.25 | 100 | 16 | 15.96 |
| Six-yard box | 4 | 0 | 0.4 | 7 | 3 | 1.94 |
| Ath Bilbao | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own goals | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Out of box | 53 | 1 | 1.67 | 69 | 0 | 2.01 |
| Penalty area | 131 | 8 | 18.16 | 92 | 10 | 9.18 |
| Six-yard box | 13 | 2 | 3.48 | 9 | 1 | 2.83 |
| Getafe | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-15 | 26 | 1 | 1.27 | 21 | 5 | 2.87 |
| 16-30 | 20 | 2 | 0.88 | 25 | 1 | 2.07 |
| 31-45 | 33 | 3 | 2.29 | 18 | 1 | 2.24 |
| 46-60 | 26 | 2 | 1.64 | 21 | 3 | 3.31 |
| 61-75 | 21 | 0 | 0.75 | 29 | 3 | 2.51 |
| 76+ | 39 | 2 | 3.03 | 49 | 6 | 6.96 |
| Ath Bilbao | Sh | G | xG | ShA | GA | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-15 | 22 | 2 | 3.45 | 34 | 2 | 3.16 |
| 16-30 | 28 | 0 | 2.83 | 18 | 1 | 1.12 |
| 31-45 | 33 | 3 | 4.17 | 31 | 4 | 3.75 |
| 46-60 | 32 | 2 | 3.06 | 30 | 1 | 2.16 |
| 61-75 | 37 | 4 | 5.41 | 21 | 1 | 0.88 |
| 76+ | 47 | 2 | 6.38 | 36 | 2 | 2.94 |
Desicive Betting factors
| Factors | Getafe | Ath Bilbao |
|---|---|---|
| Form Score | -0.032 | -0.356 |
| Home/Away form | -0.378 | -0.022 |
| Off ability | -0.442 | -0.243 |
| Def ability | -0.104 | -0.652 |
Optimal equations estimations
The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:| Team | No-G | 1 gl | 2 gls | 3+ gls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe | 19% | 25% | 29% | 27% |
| Ath Bilbao | 26% | 49% | 17% | 9% |
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Getafe and the red line for guest team, Ath Bilbao.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Getafe to score 0.83 goals and Ath Bilbao to score 1.08 goals. So, they expect a total of 1.91 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.25 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Getafe to score 1.64 goals and Ath Bilbao to score 1.08 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.72 goals in the game and the home team Getafe to win by 0.56 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
| Goals | Odds | Goals | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.41 | 0-1 | 4.85 |
| 1 | 6.37 | 2-3 | 2.01 |
| 2 | 4.39 | 4+ | 3.38 |
| 3 | 3.72 | Ov 1.5 | 1.26 |
| 4 | 4.95 | Un 1.5 | 4.85 |
| 5 | 14.29 | Ov 2.5 | 1.77 |
| 6+ | 41.67 | Un 2.5 | 2.3 |
| Gg | 1.66 | Ov 3.5 | 3.38 |
| NoG | 2.52 | Un 3.5 | 1.42 |
| If game ends with | -1- | -X- | -2- |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 goals | 3.17 | 4.2 | 2.24 |
| 2-3 goals | 1.74 | 4.04 | 5.58 |
| 4+ goals | 1.67 | 4.11 | 6.3 |
| Ov 1.5 | 1.72 | 4.07 | 5.83 |
| Un 1.5 | 3.17 | 4.2 | 2.24 |
| Ov 2.5 | 1.46 | 7.85 | 5.38 |
| Un 2.5 | 3.12 | 2.52 | 3.53 |
| Ov 3.5 | 1.67 | 4.11 | 6.3 |
| Un 3.5 | 2.01 | 4.09 | 3.88 |
| Goal-Goal | 1.89 | 3.09 | 6.76 |
| No Goal | 1.9 | 8.1 | 2.86 |
| G-G+Ov 2.5 | 1.51 | 6.65 | 5.38 |
| NG+Un 2.5 | 2.24 | 8.1 | 2.53 |