Segunda Division
In this article we will analyse the following games:
(with blue color are the value bets as estimated by the optimal equations method).
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home (5.69 %) so let's further analyze the game.
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Huesca and the red line for guest team, Valladolid.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Huesca to score 1.17 goals and Valladolid to score 1.15 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.32 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.02 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Huesca to score 1.28 goals and Valladolid to score 1 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.28 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.28 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios?
The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number!
Use it and get great odds for your choices!
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Under (5.78 %, 0.34 %) so let's further analyze the game.
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Fuenlabrada and the red line for guest team, Almeria.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Fuenlabrada to score 0.96 goals and Almeria to score 1.35 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.31 goals in the game and the guest team Almeria to win by 0.39 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Fuenlabrada to score 1.1 goals and Almeria to score 1.15 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.25 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.05 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios?
The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number!
Use it and get great odds for your choices!
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Over (3.25 %, 4.14 %) so let's further analyze the game.
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Sociedad B and the red line for guest team, Burgos.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sociedad B to score 1.16 goals and Burgos to score 0.89 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.05 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.27 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sociedad B to score 1.35 goals and Burgos to score 0.98 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and the home team Sociedad B to win by 0.37 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios?
The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number!
Use it and get great odds for your choices!
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Over (1.41 %) so let's further analyze the game.
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Ponferradina and the red line for guest team, Mirandes.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Ponferradina to score 1.4 goals and Mirandes to score 0.84 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.24 goals in the game and the home team Ponferradina to win by 0.56 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Ponferradina to score 1.44 goals and Mirandes to score 0.95 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and the home team Ponferradina to win by 0.49 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios?
The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number!
Use it and get great odds for your choices!
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Over (4.55 %) so let's further analyze the game.
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Oviedo and the red line for guest team, Alcorcon.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Oviedo to score 1.47 goals and Alcorcon to score 0.65 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.12 goals in the game and the home team Oviedo to win by 0.82 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Oviedo to score 1.55 goals and Alcorcon to score 0.82 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and the home team Oviedo to win by 0.73 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios?
The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number!
Use it and get great odds for your choices!
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Over (0.9 %, 3.81 %) so let's further analyze the game.
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Malaga and the red line for guest team, Amorebieta.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Malaga to score 1.45 goals and Amorebieta to score 0.76 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.2 goals in the game and the home team Malaga to win by 0.69 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Malaga to score 1.54 goals and Amorebieta to score 0.88 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and the home team Malaga to win by 0.66 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios?
The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number!
Use it and get great odds for your choices!
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Over (3 %) so let's further analyze the game.
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Las Palmas and the red line for guest team, Sp Gijon.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Las Palmas to score 1.33 goals and Sp Gijon to score 0.8 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.13 goals in the game and the home team Las Palmas to win by 0.53 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Las Palmas to score 1.41 goals and Sp Gijon to score 0.96 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and the home team Las Palmas to win by 0.45 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios?
The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number!
Use it and get great odds for your choices!
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Over (5.65 %, 2.3 %) so let's further analyze the game.
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Lugo and the red line for guest team, Ibiza.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Lugo to score 1.05 goals and Ibiza to score 1 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.04 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.05 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Lugo to score 1.26 goals and Ibiza to score 1.01 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.27 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.25 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios?
The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number!
Use it and get great odds for your choices!
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Over (3.12 %, 0.16 %) so let's further analyze the game.
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Zaragoza and the red line for guest team, Eibar.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Zaragoza to score 1.05 goals and Eibar to score 1.02 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.07 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.03 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Zaragoza to score 1.19 goals and Eibar to score 1.03 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.22 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.16 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios?
The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number!
Use it and get great odds for your choices!
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home (6.82 %) so let's further analyze the game.
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Cartagena and the red line for guest team, Tenerife.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Cartagena to score 1.07 goals and Tenerife to score 1.09 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.16 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.02 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Cartagena to score 1.28 goals and Tenerife to score 1 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.28 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.28 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios?
The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number!
Use it and get great odds for your choices!
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Over (4.93 %, 3.13 %) so let's further analyze the game.
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Girona and the red line for guest team, Leganes.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Girona to score 1.11 goals and Leganes to score 0.95 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.06 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.16 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Girona to score 1.33 goals and Leganes to score 0.98 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.31 goals in the game and the home team Girona to win by 0.35 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
What are the fair odds for every result in specific goals' scenarios?
The next table helps you to find value bets by combining result and goals' number!
Use it and get great odds for your choices!
| Teams | Date | Home | Draw | Away | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Huesca - Valladolid | 03-Dec | 2.62 | 3.16 | 2.7 | 2.16 | 1.72 |
| Fuenlabrada - Almeria | 04-Dec | 3.47 | 3.27 | 2.15 | 2.16 | 1.71 |
| Sociedad B - Burgos | 05-Dec | 2.3 | 3 | 3.38 | 2.53 | 1.49 |
| Ponferradina - Mirandes | 05-Dec | 1.95 | 3.35 | 4.04 | 2.26 | 1.65 |
| Oviedo - Alcorcon | 05-Dec | 1.67 | 3.41 | 5.39 | 2.42 | 1.55 |
| Malaga - Amorebieta | 05-Dec | 1.84 | 3.36 | 4.71 | 2.33 | 1.63 |
| Las Palmas - Sp Gijon | 05-Dec | 1.97 | 3.26 | 4.04 | 2.39 | 1.55 |
| Lugo - Ibiza | 05-Dec | 2.67 | 2.94 | 2.87 | 2.54 | 1.49 |
| Zaragoza - Eibar | 06-Dec | 2.7 | 2.98 | 2.8 | 2.48 | 1.51 |
| Cartagena - Tenerife | 06-Dec | 2.7 | 3.15 | 2.65 | 2.38 | 1.59 |
| Girona - Leganes | 06-Dec | 2.43 | 3.02 | 3.06 | 2.49 | 1.5 |
Click here to view the mathematical predictions for today!
Huesca vs Valladolid at 03 Dec 2021
In this article I will analyze the game between Huesca and Valladolid for Segunda Division (Spain).| Odds | Home | Draw | Away | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | 2.62 | 3.16 | 2.7 | 2.16 | 1.72 |
| Ours | 2.28 | 3.56 | 3.55 | 2.38 | 1.73 |
| Value % | 5.69 | -3.56 | -8.87 | -4.28 | -0.34 |
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home (5.69 %) so let's further analyze the game.
Basic Data and latest results
Huesca
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 39 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| Last 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 56 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| At Home | 2 | 4 | 3 | 37 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Nov | Almeria | A | 0 | 0 | D | U | Ng |
| 21 Nov | Ibiza | H | 0 | 0 | D | U | Ng |
| 13 Nov | Mirandes | A | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 05 Nov | Leganes | H | 0 | 2 | L | U | Ng |
| 02 Nov | Ponferradina | A | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 30 Oct | Amorebieta | H | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 24 Oct | Burgos | A | 1 | 3 | L | O | Gg |
| 19 Oct | Malaga | H | 0 | 0 | D | U | Ng |
Valladolid
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 67 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| Last 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 67 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| At Away | 3 | 2 | 4 | 41 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 4 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Nov | Cartagena | H | 2 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 20 Nov | Almeria | A | 1 | 3 | L | O | Gg |
| 13 Nov | Fuenlabrada | H | 3 | 0 | W | O | Ng |
| 06 Nov | Mirandes | H | 3 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 03 Nov | Amorebieta | A | 1 | 4 | L | O | Gg |
| 31 Oct | Eibar | H | 2 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 23 Oct | Sp Gijon | A | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 20 Oct | Ibiza | H | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
Desicive Betting factors
| Factors | Huesca | Valladolid |
|---|---|---|
| Form Score | -0.056 | 0.333 |
| Home/Away form | -0.378 | 0.037 |
| Off ability | -0.547 | 1 |
| Def ability | 0.304 | 0.015 |
Optimal equations estimations
The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:| Team | No-G | 1 gl | 2 gls | 3+ gls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Huesca | 26% | 35% | 25% | 14% |
| Valladolid | 36% | 37% | 19% | 8% |
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Huesca and the red line for guest team, Valladolid.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Huesca to score 1.17 goals and Valladolid to score 1.15 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.32 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.02 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Huesca to score 1.28 goals and Valladolid to score 1 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.28 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.28 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
| Goals | Odds | Goals | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.87 | 0-1 | 3.21 |
| 1 | 4.55 | 2-3 | 2.01 |
| 2 | 3.75 | 4+ | 5.26 |
| 3 | 4.33 | Ov 1.5 | 1.45 |
| 4 | 7.69 | Un 1.5 | 3.21 |
| 5 | 20.83 | Ov 2.5 | 2.38 |
| 6+ | 83.33 | Un 2.5 | 1.73 |
| Gg | 2.09 | Ov 3.5 | 5.26 |
| NoG | 1.92 | Un 3.5 | 1.23 |
| If game ends with | -1- | -X- | -2- |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 goals | 2.5 | 3.39 | 3.28 |
| 2-3 goals | 2.15 | 3.86 | 3.64 |
| 4+ goals | 2.38 | 3.17 | 3.8 |
| Ov 1.5 | 2.21 | 3.64 | 3.68 |
| Un 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.39 | 3.28 |
| Ov 2.5 | 1.89 | 7.02 | 3.05 |
| Un 2.5 | 2.71 | 2.62 | 4.02 |
| Ov 3.5 | 2.38 | 3.17 | 3.8 |
| Un 3.5 | 2.27 | 3.67 | 3.49 |
| Goal-Goal | 2.78 | 2.53 | 4.09 |
| No Goal | 1.97 | 5.67 | 3.16 |
| G-G+Ov 2.5 | 2.03 | 5.82 | 2.98 |
| NG+Un 2.5 | 2.1 | 5.67 | 3.12 |
Go to Top
Fuenlabrada vs Almeria at 04 Dec 2021
In this article I will analyze the game between Fuenlabrada and Almeria for Segunda Division (Spain).| Odds | Home | Draw | Away | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | 3.47 | 3.27 | 2.15 | 2.16 | 1.71 |
| Ours | 2.89 | 3.48 | 2.72 | 2.42 | 1.7 |
| Value % | 5.78 | -1.85 | -9.75 | -4.97 | 0.34 |
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Under (5.78 %, 0.34 %) so let's further analyze the game.
Basic Data and latest results
Fuenlabrada
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
| Last 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| At Home | 2 | 5 | 2 | 41 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 5 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Nov | Sp Gijon | A | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 19 Nov | Mirandes | H | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 13 Nov | Valladolid | A | 0 | 3 | L | O | Ng |
| 06 Nov | Eibar | H | 0 | 0 | D | U | Ng |
| 03 Nov | Las Palmas | A | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 31 Oct | Girona | H | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 23 Oct | Ibiza | A | 1 | 3 | L | O | Gg |
| 20 Oct | Amorebieta | H | 0 | 0 | D | U | Ng |
Almeria
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 89 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| Last 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 78 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| At Away | 6 | 0 | 3 | 67 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Nov | Huesca | H | 0 | 0 | D | U | Ng |
| 20 Nov | Valladolid | H | 3 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 14 Nov | Ibiza | A | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 07 Nov | Burgos | H | 2 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 02 Nov | Sp Gijon | A | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 29 Oct | Leganes | H | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 24 Oct | Mirandes | A | 4 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 21 Oct | Sociedad B | H | 3 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
Desicive Betting factors
| Factors | Fuenlabrada | Almeria |
|---|---|---|
| Form Score | -0.563 | 0.8 |
| Home/Away form | -0.154 | 0.319 |
| Off ability | 0.053 | 0.539 |
| Def ability | -0.626 | 0.63 |
Optimal equations estimations
The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:| Team | No-G | 1 gl | 2 gls | 3+ gls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fuenlabrada | 30% | 38% | 22% | 9% |
| Almeria | 31% | 33% | 25% | 11% |
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Fuenlabrada and the red line for guest team, Almeria.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Fuenlabrada to score 0.96 goals and Almeria to score 1.35 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.31 goals in the game and the guest team Almeria to win by 0.39 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Fuenlabrada to score 1.1 goals and Almeria to score 1.15 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.25 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.05 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
| Goals | Odds | Goals | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.64 | 0-1 | 3.17 |
| 1 | 4.52 | 2-3 | 1.98 |
| 2 | 3.66 | 4+ | 5.46 |
| 3 | 4.33 | Ov 1.5 | 1.46 |
| 4 | 7.87 | Un 1.5 | 3.17 |
| 5 | 21.74 | Ov 2.5 | 2.42 |
| 6+ | 100 | Un 2.5 | 1.7 |
| Gg | 2.08 | Ov 3.5 | 5.46 |
| NoG | 1.92 | Un 3.5 | 1.22 |
| If game ends with | -1- | -X- | -2- |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 goals | 2.6 | 3.35 | 3.15 |
| 2-3 goals | 2.9 | 3.94 | 2.5 |
| 4+ goals | 3.52 | 2.82 | 2.77 |
| Ov 1.5 | 3.04 | 3.56 | 2.56 |
| Un 1.5 | 2.6 | 3.35 | 3.15 |
| Ov 2.5 | 2.67 | 6.37 | 2.13 |
| Un 2.5 | 3.06 | 2.65 | 3.38 |
| Ov 3.5 | 3.52 | 2.82 | 2.77 |
| Un 3.5 | 2.78 | 3.69 | 2.71 |
| Goal-Goal | 3.79 | 2.49 | 2.99 |
| No Goal | 2.37 | 5.54 | 2.52 |
| G-G+Ov 2.5 | 2.78 | 5.43 | 2.19 |
| NG+Un 2.5 | 2.4 | 5.54 | 2.64 |
Go to Top
Sociedad B vs Burgos at 05 Dec 2021
In this article I will analyze the game between Sociedad B and Burgos for Segunda Division (Spain).| Odds | Home | Draw | Away | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | 2.3 | 3 | 3.38 | 2.53 | 1.49 |
| Ours | 2.14 | 3.65 | 3.86 | 2.29 | 1.78 |
| Value % | 3.25 | -5.94 | -3.68 | 4.14 | -10.93 |
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Over (3.25 %, 4.14 %) so let's further analyze the game.
Basic Data and latest results
Sociedad B
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 4 |
| Last 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 33 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| At Home | 1 | 3 | 5 | 22 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 7 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Nov | Tenerife | A | 0 | 2 | L | U | Ng |
| 22 Nov | Girona | H | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 12 Nov | Sp Gijon | A | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 07 Nov | Ibiza | H | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
| 04 Nov | Malaga | A | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 29 Oct | Las Palmas | H | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
| 24 Oct | Amorebieta | A | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 21 Oct | Almeria | A | 1 | 3 | L | O | Gg |
Burgos
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 33 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
| Last 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 67 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| At Away | 1 | 2 | 6 | 19 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 6 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Nov | Malaga | H | 3 | 0 | W | O | Ng |
| 21 Nov | Cartagena | A | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
| 14 Nov | Ponferradina | H | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 07 Nov | Almeria | A | 0 | 2 | L | U | Ng |
| 04 Nov | Zaragoza | H | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
| 01 Nov | Tenerife | A | 0 | 4 | L | O | Ng |
| 24 Oct | Huesca | H | 3 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 21 Oct | Oviedo | A | 3 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
Desicive Betting factors
| Factors | Sociedad B | Burgos |
|---|---|---|
| Form Score | -0.77 | -0.259 |
| Home/Away form | -0.635 | -0.452 |
| Off ability | -0.4 | -0.478 |
| Def ability | -0.591 | -0.259 |
Optimal equations estimations
The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:| Team | No-G | 1 gl | 2 gls | 3+ gls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sociedad B | 23% | 35% | 26% | 16% |
| Burgos | 37% | 37% | 19% | 8% |
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Sociedad B and the red line for guest team, Burgos.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sociedad B to score 1.16 goals and Burgos to score 0.89 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.05 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.27 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sociedad B to score 1.35 goals and Burgos to score 0.98 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and the home team Sociedad B to win by 0.37 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
| Goals | Odds | Goals | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.76 | 0-1 | 3.36 |
| 1 | 4.69 | 2-3 | 1.98 |
| 2 | 3.76 | 4+ | 5 |
| 3 | 4.2 | Ov 1.5 | 1.42 |
| 4 | 7.35 | Un 1.5 | 3.36 |
| 5 | 19.61 | Ov 2.5 | 2.28 |
| 6+ | 76.92 | Un 2.5 | 1.77 |
| Gg | 2.05 | Ov 3.5 | 5 |
| NoG | 1.95 | Un 3.5 | 1.25 |
| If game ends with | -1- | -X- | -2- |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 goals | 2.35 | 3.51 | 3.47 |
| 2-3 goals | 2.02 | 3.94 | 3.97 |
| 4+ goals | 2.17 | 3.28 | 4.26 |
| Ov 1.5 | 2.06 | 3.72 | 4.05 |
| Un 1.5 | 2.35 | 3.51 | 3.47 |
| Ov 2.5 | 1.77 | 7.18 | 3.37 |
| Un 2.5 | 2.55 | 2.65 | 4.34 |
| Ov 3.5 | 2.17 | 3.28 | 4.26 |
| Un 3.5 | 2.13 | 3.77 | 3.77 |
| Goal-Goal | 2.61 | 2.58 | 4.36 |
| No Goal | 1.83 | 6.05 | 3.47 |
| G-G+Ov 2.5 | 1.93 | 5.9 | 3.21 |
| NG+Un 2.5 | 1.97 | 6.05 | 3.35 |
Go to Top
Ponferradina vs Mirandes at 05 Dec 2021
In this article I will analyze the game between Ponferradina and Mirandes for Segunda Division (Spain).| Odds | Home | Draw | Away | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | 1.95 | 3.35 | 4.04 | 2.26 | 1.65 |
| Ours | 1.99 | 3.79 | 4.29 | 2.19 | 1.84 |
| Value % | -1.03 | -3.47 | -1.44 | 1.41 | -6.26 |
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Over (1.41 %) so let's further analyze the game.
Basic Data and latest results
Ponferradina
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 72 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
| Last 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 67 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| At Home | 5 | 3 | 1 | 67 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Nov | Ibiza | A | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 21 Nov | Sp Gijon | H | 4 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 14 Nov | Burgos | A | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
| 06 Nov | Lugo | A | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 02 Nov | Huesca | H | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 30 Oct | Cartagena | A | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 24 Oct | Oviedo | H | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 21 Oct | Zaragoza | A | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
Mirandes
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 33 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 4 |
| Last 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| At Away | 2 | 3 | 3 | 38 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 5 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Nov | Oviedo | H | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 19 Nov | Fuenlabrada | A | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 13 Nov | Huesca | H | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
| 06 Nov | Valladolid | A | 1 | 3 | L | O | Gg |
| 03 Nov | Lugo | H | 3 | 2 | W | O | Gg |
| 31 Oct | Zaragoza | A | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 24 Oct | Almeria | H | 1 | 4 | L | O | Gg |
| 21 Oct | Girona | H | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
Desicive Betting factors
| Factors | Ponferradina | Mirandes |
|---|---|---|
| Form Score | 0.468 | -0.185 |
| Home/Away form | 0.145 | -0.104 |
| Off ability | 0.505 | 0.591 |
| Def ability | -0.217 | -1 |
Optimal equations estimations
The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:| Team | No-G | 1 gl | 2 gls | 3+ gls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ponferradina | 20% | 34% | 26% | 19% |
| Mirandes | 38% | 36% | 18% | 7% |
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Ponferradina and the red line for guest team, Mirandes.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Ponferradina to score 1.4 goals and Mirandes to score 0.84 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.24 goals in the game and the home team Ponferradina to win by 0.56 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Ponferradina to score 1.44 goals and Mirandes to score 0.95 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and the home team Ponferradina to win by 0.49 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
| Goals | Odds | Goals | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.99 | 0-1 | 3.56 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 2-3 | 1.97 |
| 2 | 3.82 | 4+ | 4.76 |
| 3 | 4.07 | Ov 1.5 | 1.39 |
| 4 | 7.04 | Un 1.5 | 3.56 |
| 5 | 18.52 | Ov 2.5 | 2.19 |
| 6+ | 71.43 | Un 2.5 | 1.84 |
| Gg | 2.02 | Ov 3.5 | 4.76 |
| NoG | 1.98 | Un 3.5 | 1.27 |
| If game ends with | -1- | -X- | -2- |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 goals | 2.16 | 3.65 | 3.8 |
| 2-3 goals | 1.9 | 4.06 | 4.42 |
| 4+ goals | 2.02 | 3.39 | 4.77 |
| Ov 1.5 | 1.93 | 3.84 | 4.52 |
| Un 1.5 | 2.16 | 3.65 | 3.8 |
| Ov 2.5 | 1.68 | 7.35 | 3.74 |
| Un 2.5 | 2.36 | 2.69 | 4.89 |
| Ov 3.5 | 2.02 | 3.39 | 4.77 |
| Un 3.5 | 1.98 | 3.91 | 4.17 |
| Goal-Goal | 2.47 | 2.64 | 4.62 |
| No Goal | 1.67 | 6.56 | 4.01 |
| G-G+Ov 2.5 | 1.84 | 5.95 | 3.45 |
| NG+Un 2.5 | 1.82 | 6.56 | 3.77 |
Go to Top
Oviedo vs Alcorcon at 05 Dec 2021
In this article I will analyze the game between Oviedo and Alcorcon for Segunda Division (Spain).| Odds | Home | Draw | Away | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | 1.67 | 3.41 | 5.39 | 2.42 | 1.55 |
| Ours | 1.75 | 4.08 | 5.49 | 2.18 | 1.85 |
| Value % | -2.74 | -4.82 | -0.34 | 4.55 | -10.46 |
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Over (4.55 %) so let's further analyze the game.
Basic Data and latest results
Oviedo
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 50 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 5 |
| Last 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 56 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| At Home | 3 | 5 | 1 | 52 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 6 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Nov | Mirandes | A | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 20 Nov | Amorebieta | H | 2 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 14 Nov | Leganes | A | 0 | 0 | D | U | Ng |
| 06 Nov | Las Palmas | H | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 03 Nov | Eibar | A | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
| 31 Oct | Malaga | H | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 24 Oct | Ponferradina | A | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 21 Oct | Burgos | H | 1 | 3 | L | O | Gg |
Alcorcon
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 3 |
| Last 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| At Away | 1 | 0 | 8 | 11 | 3 | 9 | 4 | 5 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Nov | Lugo | H | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 21 Nov | Tenerife | A | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
| 13 Nov | Eibar | A | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 07 Nov | Amorebieta | H | 2 | 2 | D | O | Gg |
| 04 Nov | Girona | A | 1 | 3 | L | O | Gg |
| 01 Nov | Ibiza | H | 0 | 2 | L | U | Ng |
| 24 Oct | Las Palmas | A | 0 | 3 | L | O | Ng |
| 20 Oct | Leganes | H | 3 | 3 | D | O | Gg |
Desicive Betting factors
| Factors | Oviedo | Alcorcon |
|---|---|---|
| Form Score | 0.111 | -0.644 |
| Home/Away form | -0.029 | -0.704 |
| Off ability | 0.084 | 0.243 |
| Def ability | -0.157 | -1 |
Optimal equations estimations
The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:| Team | No-G | 1 gl | 2 gls | 3+ gls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oviedo | 18% | 33% | 26% | 24% |
| Alcorcon | 45% | 35% | 14% | 6% |
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Oviedo and the red line for guest team, Alcorcon.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Oviedo to score 1.47 goals and Alcorcon to score 0.65 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.12 goals in the game and the home team Oviedo to win by 0.82 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Oviedo to score 1.55 goals and Alcorcon to score 0.82 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and the home team Oviedo to win by 0.73 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
| Goals | Odds | Goals | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.82 | 0-1 | 3.48 |
| 1 | 4.78 | 2-3 | 1.97 |
| 2 | 3.92 | 4+ | 4.88 |
| 3 | 3.95 | Ov 1.5 | 1.4 |
| 4 | 7.14 | Un 1.5 | 3.48 |
| 5 | 20 | Ov 2.5 | 2.18 |
| 6+ | 66.67 | Un 2.5 | 1.85 |
| Gg | 2.19 | Ov 3.5 | 4.88 |
| NoG | 1.84 | Un 3.5 | 1.26 |
| If game ends with | -1- | -X- | -2- |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 goals | 1.94 | 3.68 | 4.7 |
| 2-3 goals | 1.64 | 4.42 | 6.12 |
| 4+ goals | 1.78 | 4.02 | 5.26 |
| Ov 1.5 | 1.68 | 4.3 | 5.84 |
| Un 1.5 | 1.94 | 3.68 | 4.7 |
| Ov 2.5 | 1.48 | 8.98 | 4.72 |
| Un 2.5 | 2.06 | 2.81 | 6.3 |
| Ov 3.5 | 1.78 | 4.02 | 5.26 |
| Un 3.5 | 1.74 | 4.12 | 5.52 |
| Goal-Goal | 2.24 | 2.75 | 5.3 |
| No Goal | 1.47 | 6.97 | 5.61 |
| G-G+Ov 2.5 | 1.67 | 6.69 | 3.97 |
| NG+Un 2.5 | 1.62 | 6.97 | 4.97 |
Go to Top
Malaga vs Amorebieta at 05 Dec 2021
In this article I will analyze the game between Malaga and Amorebieta for Segunda Division (Spain).| Odds | Home | Draw | Away | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | 1.84 | 3.36 | 4.71 | 2.33 | 1.63 |
| Ours | 1.81 | 4 | 5.08 | 2.14 | 1.88 |
| Value % | 0.9 | -4.76 | -1.55 | 3.81 | -8.16 |
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Over (0.9 %, 3.81 %) so let's further analyze the game.
Basic Data and latest results
Malaga
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 50 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 1 |
| Last 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 67 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| At Home | 7 | 2 | 0 | 85 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Nov | Burgos | A | 0 | 3 | L | O | Ng |
| 20 Nov | Las Palmas | H | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 15 Nov | Tenerife | H | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 07 Nov | Cartagena | A | 1 | 3 | L | O | Gg |
| 04 Nov | Sociedad B | H | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 31 Oct | Oviedo | A | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 23 Oct | Lugo | H | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 19 Oct | Huesca | A | 0 | 0 | D | U | Ng |
Amorebieta
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 33 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 3 |
| Last 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| At Away | 0 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 7 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Nov | Zaragoza | H | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 20 Nov | Oviedo | A | 0 | 2 | L | U | Ng |
| 14 Nov | Lugo | H | 1 | 3 | L | O | Gg |
| 07 Nov | Alcorcon | A | 2 | 2 | D | O | Gg |
| 03 Nov | Valladolid | H | 4 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 30 Oct | Huesca | A | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 24 Oct | Sociedad B | H | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 20 Oct | Fuenlabrada | A | 0 | 0 | D | U | Ng |
Desicive Betting factors
| Factors | Malaga | Amorebieta |
|---|---|---|
| Form Score | -0.056 | -0.207 |
| Home/Away form | 0.668 | -0.393 |
| Off ability | 0.442 | 0.565 |
| Def ability | -0.591 | -1 |
Optimal equations estimations
The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:| Team | No-G | 1 gl | 2 gls | 3+ gls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malaga | 17% | 34% | 26% | 22% |
| Amorebieta | 42% | 35% | 16% | 7% |
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Malaga and the red line for guest team, Amorebieta.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Malaga to score 1.45 goals and Amorebieta to score 0.76 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.2 goals in the game and the home team Malaga to win by 0.69 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Malaga to score 1.54 goals and Amorebieta to score 0.88 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and the home team Malaga to win by 0.66 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
| Goals | Odds | Goals | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.89 | 0-1 | 3.65 |
| 1 | 4.95 | 2-3 | 1.96 |
| 2 | 3.89 | 4+ | 4.67 |
| 3 | 3.95 | Ov 1.5 | 1.38 |
| 4 | 6.9 | Un 1.5 | 3.65 |
| 5 | 18.52 | Ov 2.5 | 2.14 |
| 6+ | 66.67 | Un 2.5 | 1.88 |
| Gg | 2.08 | Ov 3.5 | 4.67 |
| NoG | 1.93 | Un 3.5 | 1.28 |
| If game ends with | -1- | -X- | -2- |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 goals | 1.94 | 3.81 | 4.49 |
| 2-3 goals | 1.72 | 4.29 | 5.37 |
| 4+ goals | 1.86 | 3.69 | 5.22 |
| Ov 1.5 | 1.76 | 4.09 | 5.32 |
| Un 1.5 | 1.94 | 3.81 | 4.49 |
| Ov 2.5 | 1.55 | 8.05 | 4.32 |
| Un 2.5 | 2.12 | 2.78 | 5.97 |
| Ov 3.5 | 1.86 | 3.69 | 5.22 |
| Un 3.5 | 1.79 | 4.1 | 5.03 |
| Goal-Goal | 2.31 | 2.72 | 5.01 |
| No Goal | 1.5 | 7.18 | 5.12 |
| G-G+Ov 2.5 | 1.74 | 6.24 | 3.77 |
| NG+Un 2.5 | 1.64 | 7.18 | 4.63 |
Go to Top
Las Palmas vs Sp Gijon at 05 Dec 2021
In this article I will analyze the game between Las Palmas and Sp Gijon for Segunda Division (Spain).| Odds | Home | Draw | Away | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | 1.97 | 3.26 | 4.04 | 2.39 | 1.55 |
| Ours | 2.04 | 3.73 | 4.12 | 2.23 | 1.81 |
| Value % | -1.74 | -3.87 | -0.48 | 3 | -9.27 |
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Over (3 %) so let's further analyze the game.
Basic Data and latest results
Las Palmas
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 39 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 2 |
| Last 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| At Home | 6 | 2 | 1 | 74 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 2 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Nov | Leganes | A | 1 | 4 | L | O | Gg |
| 20 Nov | Malaga | A | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 13 Nov | Zaragoza | H | 2 | 3 | L | O | Gg |
| 06 Nov | Oviedo | A | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 03 Nov | Fuenlabrada | H | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 29 Oct | Sociedad B | A | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 24 Oct | Alcorcon | H | 3 | 0 | W | O | Ng |
| 20 Oct | Lugo | A | 0 | 2 | L | U | Ng |
Sp Gijon
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 5 |
| Last 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| At Away | 1 | 4 | 4 | 26 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 6 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Nov | Fuenlabrada | H | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 21 Nov | Ponferradina | A | 1 | 4 | L | O | Gg |
| 12 Nov | Sociedad B | H | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
| 07 Nov | Zaragoza | A | 0 | 2 | L | U | Ng |
| 02 Nov | Almeria | H | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
| 30 Oct | Lugo | A | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 23 Oct | Valladolid | H | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 19 Oct | Cartagena | A | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
Desicive Betting factors
| Factors | Las Palmas | Sp Gijon |
|---|---|---|
| Form Score | -0.365 | -0.667 |
| Home/Away form | 0.685 | -0.252 |
| Off ability | 1 | -0.13 |
| Def ability | -0.678 | -1 |
Optimal equations estimations
The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:| Team | No-G | 1 gl | 2 gls | 3+ gls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas | 21% | 34% | 26% | 18% |
| Sp Gijon | 37% | 37% | 18% | 8% |
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Las Palmas and the red line for guest team, Sp Gijon.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Las Palmas to score 1.33 goals and Sp Gijon to score 0.8 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.13 goals in the game and the home team Las Palmas to win by 0.53 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Las Palmas to score 1.41 goals and Sp Gijon to score 0.96 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and the home team Las Palmas to win by 0.45 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
| Goals | Odds | Goals | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 0-1 | 3.48 |
| 1 | 4.83 | 2-3 | 1.97 |
| 2 | 3.79 | 4+ | 4.83 |
| 3 | 4.12 | Ov 1.5 | 1.4 |
| 4 | 7.09 | Un 1.5 | 3.48 |
| 5 | 18.87 | Ov 2.5 | 2.22 |
| 6+ | 76.92 | Un 2.5 | 1.81 |
| Gg | 2.03 | Ov 3.5 | 4.83 |
| NoG | 1.97 | Un 3.5 | 1.26 |
| If game ends with | -1- | -X- | -2- |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 goals | 2.22 | 3.59 | 3.68 |
| 2-3 goals | 1.94 | 4.02 | 4.23 |
| 4+ goals | 2.09 | 3.34 | 4.5 |
| Ov 1.5 | 1.98 | 3.8 | 4.3 |
| Un 1.5 | 2.22 | 3.59 | 3.68 |
| Ov 2.5 | 1.72 | 7.26 | 3.57 |
| Un 2.5 | 2.43 | 2.67 | 4.67 |
| Ov 3.5 | 2.09 | 3.34 | 4.5 |
| Un 3.5 | 2.04 | 3.85 | 4.01 |
| Goal-Goal | 2.53 | 2.62 | 4.48 |
| No Goal | 1.73 | 6.35 | 3.79 |
| G-G+Ov 2.5 | 1.88 | 5.92 | 3.34 |
| NG+Un 2.5 | 1.87 | 6.35 | 3.6 |
Go to Top
Lugo vs Ibiza at 05 Dec 2021
In this article I will analyze the game between Lugo and Ibiza for Segunda Division (Spain).| Odds | Home | Draw | Away | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | 2.67 | 2.94 | 2.87 | 2.54 | 1.49 |
| Ours | 2.32 | 3.55 | 3.48 | 2.4 | 1.72 |
| Value % | 5.65 | -5.84 | -6.11 | 2.3 | -8.97 |
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Over (5.65 %, 2.3 %) so let's further analyze the game.
Basic Data and latest results
Lugo
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 33 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 |
| Last 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 56 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| At Home | 3 | 4 | 2 | 48 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 6 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Nov | Alcorcon | A | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 21 Nov | Eibar | H | 2 | 2 | D | O | Gg |
| 14 Nov | Amorebieta | A | 3 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 06 Nov | Ponferradina | H | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 03 Nov | Mirandes | A | 2 | 3 | L | O | Gg |
| 30 Oct | Sp Gijon | H | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 23 Oct | Malaga | A | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
| 20 Oct | Las Palmas | H | 2 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
Ibiza
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 44 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| Last 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| At Away | 3 | 4 | 2 | 48 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 6 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Nov | Ponferradina | H | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
| 21 Nov | Huesca | A | 0 | 0 | D | U | Ng |
| 14 Nov | Almeria | H | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
| 07 Nov | Sociedad B | A | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 04 Nov | Tenerife | H | 0 | 0 | D | U | Ng |
| 01 Nov | Alcorcon | A | 2 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 23 Oct | Fuenlabrada | H | 3 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 20 Oct | Valladolid | A | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
Desicive Betting factors
| Factors | Lugo | Ibiza |
|---|---|---|
| Form Score | -0.214 | -0.074 |
| Home/Away form | -0.029 | 0.185 |
| Off ability | 1 | -0.652 |
| Def ability | -1 | 0.259 |
Optimal equations estimations
The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:| Team | No-G | 1 gl | 2 gls | 3+ gls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lugo | 26% | 35% | 25% | 14% |
| Ibiza | 36% | 37% | 19% | 8% |
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Lugo and the red line for guest team, Ibiza.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Lugo to score 1.05 goals and Ibiza to score 1 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.04 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.05 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Lugo to score 1.26 goals and Ibiza to score 1.01 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.27 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.25 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
| Goals | Odds | Goals | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.75 | 0-1 | 3.17 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 2-3 | 2.01 |
| 2 | 3.73 | 4+ | 5.32 |
| 3 | 4.35 | Ov 1.5 | 1.46 |
| 4 | 7.81 | Un 1.5 | 3.17 |
| 5 | 20.83 | Ov 2.5 | 2.39 |
| 6+ | 83.33 | Un 2.5 | 1.72 |
| Gg | 2.1 | Ov 3.5 | 5.32 |
| NoG | 1.9 | Un 3.5 | 1.23 |
| If game ends with | -1- | -X- | -2- |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 goals | 2.52 | 3.39 | 3.25 |
| 2-3 goals | 2.18 | 3.86 | 3.53 |
| 4+ goals | 2.41 | 3.13 | 3.76 |
| Ov 1.5 | 2.24 | 3.63 | 3.59 |
| Un 1.5 | 2.52 | 3.39 | 3.25 |
| Ov 2.5 | 1.92 | 6.97 | 2.99 |
| Un 2.5 | 2.74 | 2.63 | 3.94 |
| Ov 3.5 | 2.41 | 3.13 | 3.76 |
| Un 3.5 | 2.3 | 3.66 | 3.42 |
| Goal-Goal | 2.82 | 2.52 | 4.03 |
| No Goal | 2 | 5.65 | 3.09 |
| G-G+Ov 2.5 | 2.05 | 5.78 | 2.94 |
| NG+Un 2.5 | 2.13 | 5.65 | 3.07 |
Go to Top
Zaragoza vs Eibar at 06 Dec 2021
In this article I will analyze the game between Zaragoza and Eibar for Segunda Division (Spain).| Odds | Home | Draw | Away | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | 2.7 | 2.98 | 2.8 | 2.48 | 1.51 |
| Ours | 2.49 | 3.48 | 3.22 | 2.47 | 1.68 |
| Value % | 3.12 | -4.82 | -4.66 | 0.16 | -6.7 |
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Over (3.12 %, 0.16 %) so let's further analyze the game.
Basic Data and latest results
Zaragoza
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 61 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 5 |
| Last 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 44 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| At Home | 1 | 6 | 2 | 33 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 9 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Nov | Amorebieta | A | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 22 Nov | Leganes | H | 0 | 2 | L | U | Ng |
| 13 Nov | Las Palmas | A | 3 | 2 | W | O | Gg |
| 07 Nov | Sp Gijon | H | 2 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 04 Nov | Burgos | A | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 31 Oct | Mirandes | H | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 25 Oct | Girona | A | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 21 Oct | Ponferradina | H | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
Eibar
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 61 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| Last 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 78 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| At Away | 3 | 4 | 2 | 48 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 6 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Nov | Girona | H | 4 | 2 | W | O | Gg |
| 21 Nov | Lugo | A | 2 | 2 | D | O | Gg |
| 13 Nov | Alcorcon | H | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 06 Nov | Fuenlabrada | A | 0 | 0 | D | U | Ng |
| 03 Nov | Oviedo | H | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 31 Oct | Valladolid | A | 0 | 2 | L | U | Ng |
| 22 Oct | Cartagena | H | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 19 Oct | Tenerife | A | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
Desicive Betting factors
| Factors | Zaragoza | Eibar |
|---|---|---|
| Form Score | 0.246 | 0.385 |
| Home/Away form | -0.104 | 0.141 |
| Off ability | 0.474 | 0.304 |
| Def ability | -0.278 | -0.385 |
Optimal equations estimations
The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:| Team | No-G | 1 gl | 2 gls | 3+ gls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zaragoza | 28% | 36% | 24% | 12% |
| Eibar | 35% | 36% | 20% | 9% |
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Zaragoza and the red line for guest team, Eibar.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Zaragoza to score 1.05 goals and Eibar to score 1.02 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.07 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.03 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Zaragoza to score 1.19 goals and Eibar to score 1.03 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.22 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.16 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
| Goals | Odds | Goals | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 0-1 | 3.09 |
| 1 | 4.42 | 2-3 | 2.02 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 4+ | 5.56 |
| 3 | 4.44 | Ov 1.5 | 1.48 |
| 4 | 8.06 | Un 1.5 | 3.09 |
| 5 | 22.22 | Ov 2.5 | 2.47 |
| 6+ | 90.91 | Un 2.5 | 1.68 |
| Gg | 2.14 | Ov 3.5 | 5.56 |
| NoG | 1.88 | Un 3.5 | 1.22 |
| If game ends with | -1- | -X- | -2- |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 goals | 2.63 | 3.31 | 3.15 |
| 2-3 goals | 2.33 | 3.81 | 3.24 |
| 4+ goals | 2.65 | 3.05 | 3.4 |
| Ov 1.5 | 2.41 | 3.57 | 3.28 |
| Un 1.5 | 2.63 | 3.31 | 3.15 |
| Ov 2.5 | 2.06 | 6.86 | 2.72 |
| Un 2.5 | 2.88 | 2.61 | 3.71 |
| Ov 3.5 | 2.65 | 3.05 | 3.4 |
| Un 3.5 | 2.44 | 3.59 | 3.2 |
| Goal-Goal | 3.02 | 2.48 | 3.77 |
| No Goal | 2.14 | 5.42 | 2.87 |
| G-G+Ov 2.5 | 2.18 | 5.73 | 2.73 |
| NG+Un 2.5 | 2.25 | 5.42 | 2.9 |
Go to Top
Cartagena vs Tenerife at 06 Dec 2021
In this article I will analyze the game between Cartagena and Tenerife for Segunda Division (Spain).| Odds | Home | Draw | Away | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | 2.7 | 3.15 | 2.65 | 2.38 | 1.59 |
| Ours | 2.28 | 3.56 | 3.55 | 2.38 | 1.73 |
| Value % | 6.82 | -3.66 | -9.57 | 0 | -5.09 |
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home (6.82 %) so let's further analyze the game.
Basic Data and latest results
Cartagena
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 39 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 |
| Last 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| At Home | 6 | 0 | 2 | 75 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Nov | Valladolid | A | 0 | 2 | L | U | Ng |
| 21 Nov | Burgos | H | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 14 Nov | Girona | A | 0 | 2 | L | U | Ng |
| 07 Nov | Malaga | H | 3 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 02 Nov | Leganes | A | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 30 Oct | Ponferradina | H | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
| 22 Oct | Eibar | A | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 19 Oct | Sp Gijon | H | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
Tenerife
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 72 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| Last 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 67 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| At Away | 4 | 2 | 3 | 52 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Nov | Sociedad B | H | 2 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 21 Nov | Alcorcon | H | 1 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 15 Nov | Malaga | A | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
| 08 Nov | Girona | H | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 04 Nov | Ibiza | A | 0 | 0 | D | U | Ng |
| 01 Nov | Burgos | H | 4 | 0 | W | O | Ng |
| 23 Oct | Leganes | A | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 19 Oct | Eibar | H | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
Desicive Betting factors
| Factors | Cartagena | Tenerife |
|---|---|---|
| Form Score | -0.246 | 0.504 |
| Home/Away form | 0.485 | 0.252 |
| Off ability | -0.442 | 0.243 |
| Def ability | -0.565 | 0.333 |
Optimal equations estimations
The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:| Team | No-G | 1 gl | 2 gls | 3+ gls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cartagena | 26% | 35% | 25% | 14% |
| Tenerife | 36% | 37% | 19% | 8% |
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Cartagena and the red line for guest team, Tenerife.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Cartagena to score 1.07 goals and Tenerife to score 1.09 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.16 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.02 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Cartagena to score 1.28 goals and Tenerife to score 1 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.28 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.28 on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
| Goals | Odds | Goals | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.87 | 0-1 | 3.21 |
| 1 | 4.55 | 2-3 | 2.01 |
| 2 | 3.75 | 4+ | 5.26 |
| 3 | 4.33 | Ov 1.5 | 1.45 |
| 4 | 7.69 | Un 1.5 | 3.21 |
| 5 | 20.83 | Ov 2.5 | 2.38 |
| 6+ | 83.33 | Un 2.5 | 1.73 |
| Gg | 2.09 | Ov 3.5 | 5.26 |
| NoG | 1.92 | Un 3.5 | 1.23 |
| If game ends with | -1- | -X- | -2- |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 goals | 2.5 | 3.39 | 3.28 |
| 2-3 goals | 2.15 | 3.86 | 3.64 |
| 4+ goals | 2.38 | 3.17 | 3.8 |
| Ov 1.5 | 2.21 | 3.64 | 3.68 |
| Un 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.39 | 3.28 |
| Ov 2.5 | 1.89 | 7.02 | 3.05 |
| Un 2.5 | 2.71 | 2.62 | 4.02 |
| Ov 3.5 | 2.38 | 3.17 | 3.8 |
| Un 3.5 | 2.27 | 3.67 | 3.49 |
| Goal-Goal | 2.78 | 2.53 | 4.09 |
| No Goal | 1.97 | 5.67 | 3.16 |
| G-G+Ov 2.5 | 2.03 | 5.82 | 2.98 |
| NG+Un 2.5 | 2.1 | 5.67 | 3.12 |
Go to Top
Girona vs Leganes at 06 Dec 2021
In this article I will analyze the game between Girona and Leganes for Segunda Division (Spain).| Odds | Home | Draw | Away | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | 2.43 | 3.02 | 3.06 | 2.49 | 1.5 |
| Ours | 2.17 | 3.62 | 3.77 | 2.31 | 1.76 |
| Value % | 4.93 | -5.49 | -6.15 | 3.13 | -9.85 |
According to optimal equations method we have positive expected value at Home, Over (4.93 %, 3.13 %) so let's further analyze the game.
Basic Data and latest results
Girona
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 67 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 1 |
| Last 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 67 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| At Home | 4 | 2 | 3 | 52 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Nov | Eibar | A | 2 | 4 | L | O | Gg |
| 22 Nov | Sociedad B | A | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 14 Nov | Cartagena | H | 2 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 08 Nov | Tenerife | A | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 04 Nov | Alcorcon | H | 3 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 31 Oct | Fuenlabrada | A | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 25 Oct | Zaragoza | H | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 21 Oct | Mirandes | A | 2 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
Leganes
| Gms | Ws | Ds | Ls | Pt% | Sc | Con | Ov | Un |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 61 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| Last 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 78 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| At Away | 3 | 2 | 4 | 41 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 5 |
| Date | Versus | At | Sc | Con | Res | OU | Gg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Nov | Las Palmas | H | 4 | 1 | W | O | Gg |
| 22 Nov | Zaragoza | A | 2 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 14 Nov | Oviedo | H | 0 | 0 | D | U | Ng |
| 05 Nov | Huesca | A | 2 | 0 | W | U | Ng |
| 02 Nov | Cartagena | H | 1 | 1 | D | U | Gg |
| 29 Oct | Almeria | A | 0 | 1 | L | U | Ng |
| 23 Oct | Tenerife | H | 1 | 2 | L | O | Gg |
| 20 Oct | Alcorcon | A | 3 | 3 | D | O | Gg |
Desicive Betting factors
| Factors | Girona | Leganes |
|---|---|---|
| Form Score | 0.23 | 0.407 |
| Home/Away form | -0.17 | -0.163 |
| Off ability | 1 | 0.278 |
| Def ability | -0.591 | 0.037 |
Optimal equations estimations
The probability of the exact goals number for each team are:| Team | No-G | 1 gl | 2 gls | 3+ gls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Girona | 24% | 35% | 26% | 16% |
| Leganes | 36% | 37% | 19% | 8% |
The following graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals. The blue line is for home team, Girona and the red line for guest team, Leganes.
The next graph shows the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
The red line is the book's estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Girona to score 1.11 goals and Leganes to score 0.95 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.06 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.16 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Girona to score 1.33 goals and Leganes to score 0.98 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.31 goals in the game and the home team Girona to win by 0.35 goals margin on average.
The next table presents the estimated fair odds for various goals' scenarios
| Goals | Odds | Goals | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.49 | 0-1 | 3.32 |
| 1 | 4.67 | 2-3 | 1.99 |
| 2 | 3.76 | 4+ | 5.08 |
| 3 | 4.24 | Ov 1.5 | 1.43 |
| 4 | 7.46 | Un 1.5 | 3.32 |
| 5 | 20 | Ov 2.5 | 2.31 |
| 6+ | 76.92 | Un 2.5 | 1.76 |
| Gg | 2.07 | Ov 3.5 | 5.08 |
| NoG | 1.94 | Un 3.5 | 1.25 |
| If game ends with | -1- | -X- | -2- |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 goals | 2.39 | 3.46 | 3.42 |
| 2-3 goals | 2.05 | 3.92 | 3.89 |
| 4+ goals | 2.21 | 3.23 | 4.19 |
| Ov 1.5 | 2.09 | 3.7 | 3.97 |
| Un 1.5 | 2.39 | 3.46 | 3.42 |
| Ov 2.5 | 1.8 | 7.1 | 3.31 |
| Un 2.5 | 2.59 | 2.64 | 4.26 |
| Ov 3.5 | 2.21 | 3.23 | 4.19 |
| Un 3.5 | 2.16 | 3.73 | 3.7 |
| Goal-Goal | 2.64 | 2.56 | 4.32 |
| No Goal | 1.86 | 5.93 | 3.39 |
| G-G+Ov 2.5 | 1.95 | 5.84 | 3.18 |
| NG+Un 2.5 | 2 | 5.93 | 3.3 |