Value betting, a new approach

Do you feel lucky? Tell me! Do you feel lucky?

If the answer is yes, you can play Lotto, Keno, Joker, or you can place a bet. But beware, only ONE bet, if you are counting on luck.

If you want to place more bets in the long run, luck does not play a significant role, betting is a game of patience and ability. To gain profit, through time, the only thing you need is to make better estimates than the betting companies. Every reasonable person may wonder how. How can a simple betting player estimate the odds better than the giants who possess unlimited resources and the most capable human resources?

This is a hard task, but not an impossible one. Many punters try to predict value bets by using the “famous”, in the gambling world, Poisson distribution. Well, it’s not working, at least efficiently. Maybe it can predict possible value existence in a game but rarely produces viable results, mainly because it can’t “see” the non-linear nature of football games. Any form of distribution can not predict the following percentages (the blue line represents the home team’s expected goals percentages and the red line the guest team’s expected goals percentages).

This book can help every punter. If you don’t want to spend much time to find what games should you bet that’s fine! You can use the informational tables for every division to have a glance at bookies’ errors. Already you have an immediate improvement!

If you like to dig a little deeper, you can use the results equations. With little effort, a credible prediction for every game will be on your PC for further study.

Now, if you want to take advantage of the full power of the method, use the expected goals equations. I want to be honest, to apply this method you must know your way around MS Excel or a similar program. Not something very sophisticated, but you must have an average or above-average knowledge of this software.

In addition, through tens of real-life examples, you will see how the fair odds “move” on various scenarios in a single game. In my new book “MATH to WIN: Football” I present the optimized equations for every division, I explain how to build game scenarios and how to apply educated reasoning. The book “MATH to WIN: Football”, is now available at the Amazon bookstore and it will open your PATH to WIN in football betting.